Friday, 10/24

Polling update: AR, FL, GA, KY, ME, MA, MI, MN, MT, NC, OH, OR, PA, SC, VA, WI, Senate: GA, ME, MI, MN, OR, VA, WV, House: AL-02, FL-08, ME-01, ME-02, OH-15, PA-04, SD-AL

PRESIDENTIAL
ARKANSAS
A Univ. of AR poll; conducted 10/1-21; surveyed 1,628 adults; margin of error +/- 2.4% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

J. McCain       49%
B. Obama        36
Undec          15

FLORIDA
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 10/20-22; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 10/8 9/22 8/24 6/29
McCain/Palin   48% 44%  48%  49%  49%
Obama/Biden    46  52   45   42   41
Other           1   1    2    1    1
Undec           5   3    5    8    9

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     10/8    9/22
S. Palin    49%/38% 52%/36% 54%/33%
B. Obama    49 /40  52 /37  50 /38
J. McCain   48 /42  48 /41  50 /39
J. Biden    45 /41  47 /37  45 /36

FLORIDA
A Schroth Eldon & Assoc. (D)/Polling Co. (R) poll; conducted 10/20-22 for the St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald; surveyed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama        49%
J. McCain       42

GEORGIA
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 10/20-22; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 10/7 9/9 6/29 5/14
McCain/Palin   51% 50%  52% 51%  54%
Obama/Biden    45  43   39  43   40
Barr/Root       2   2    3   3   na
Undec           5   5    6   3    6

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     10/7    9/9
S. Palin    51%/36% 52%/34% 54%/28%
J. McCain   49 /37  48 /38  48 /32
B. Obama    48 /39  50 /38  49 /36
J. Biden    43 /38  43 /37  41 /35

KENTUCKY
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/19-21 for the Lexington Herald-Leader; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/23). Party ID Breakdown: 46%D, 38%R, 16%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 10/16 9/17
McCain/Palin   55% 59% 51% 24% 89% 62% 62%  4% 53%   55%
Obama/Biden    39  37  41  70   5  31  32  89 39    37
Other           3   3   3   2   3  5   3  --   3     2
Undec           3   1   5   4   3  2   3   7   5     6

Fav/Unfav

J. McCain       55%/40%
B. Obama        41 /49

MAINE
A Critical Insights poll; conducted 10/16-19; surveyed 443 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (release, 10/23). Party ID Breakdown: 38%D, 32%R, 25%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All CD1 CD2 6/27
B. Obama    56% 56% 56% 51%
J. McCain   35  33  36  31
Undec        9  10   8  16

MASSACHUSETTS
A Suffolk Univ./7NEWS poll; conducted 10/20-22; surveyed 400 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               Now 8/3 6/10
B. Obama        53% 47% 53%
J. McCain       34  38  30
Other/Undec     13  15  17

MICHIGAN
A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV/WILX-TV/WJRT-TV poll; conducted 10/19-22 by EPIC-MRA; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/24).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/22 9/17 8/21 7/15 5/22
Obama/Biden    51% 48%  43%  43%  43%  40%
McCain/Palin   37  38   42   41   41   44
R. Nader         1  2    2    3    3   na
B. Barr          1  1    2    1    2   na
Undec          10  12   10   13   12   16

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     9/22    9/17   8/21    7/15    5/22
B. Obama    59%/34% 56%/34% 54%/36% 49%/36% 51%/37% 45%/41%
J. Biden    54 /36  52 /31  47 /30   na      na      na
J. McCain   52 /41  48 /44  51 /42  52 /36  58 /32  48 /36
S. Palin    47 /43  46 /40  48 /35   na      na      na
G. Bush     32 /65   na      na     na      na      na

MINNESOTA
An Allstate/National Journal poll; conducted 10/16-20 by FD; surveyed 402 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

Obama/Biden    50%
McCain/Palin   40
Undec           7

Fav/Unfav

J. Biden        61%/27%
S. Palin        42 /47

MONTANA
A MT State Univ.-Billings poll; conducted 10/16-20; surveyed 403 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama        44%
J. McCain       40
R. Paul          4
B. Barr          1
R. Nader         1
Undec          10

NORTH CAROLINA
A Winthrop Univ./ETV poll; conducted 9/28-10/19; surveyed 744 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama        45%
J. McCain       44
Other            2
Undec            7

OHIO
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 10/20-22; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 10/8 9/9
McCain/Palin   48% 46%  48%
Obama/Biden    45  48   44
Other           2   2    2
Undec           5   4    6

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     10/8    9/9
S. Palin    49%/39% 51%/36% 53%/33%
B. Obama    49 /41  51 /38  48 /39
J. McCain   48 /42  47 /41  49 /36
J. Biden    46 /42  47 /39  46 /34

OREGON
A Riley Research Assoc. poll; conducted 10/10-20; surveyed 499 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All Dem GOP Ind
B. Obama    48% 77% 10% 53%
J. McCain   34   9  75  19
Other        4   2   3   8
Undec       14  11  13  19

PENNSYLVANIA
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 10/20-22; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-            Now 10/7 9/22 9/7 7/27 4/20 4/13 4/6 3/30 3/9
Obama/Biden  50% 54%  47%  47% 49%  40%  39%  41% 42%  44%
McCain/Palin 43  40   46   45  40   48  49   48  47   47
Other         2   2    2    3  na  na   na   na  na   na
Undec         5   4    5    5  11  12   12   11  11    9

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     10/7    9/22    9/7
S. Palin    49%/38% 50%/36% 52%/34% 51%/32%
B. Obama    48 /39  51 /37  47 /36  48 /38
J. McCain   48 /39  46 /42  47 /36  49 /33
J. Biden    47 /37  48 /37  47 /38  49 /36

PENNSYLVANIA
An Allstate/National Journal poll; conducted 10/16-20 by FD; surveyed 412 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/22
Obama/Biden    51% 43%
McCain/Palin   41  41
Undec           5  15

Fav/Unfav

J. Biden        60%/29%
S. Palin        45 /46

PENNSYLVANIA
An Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll; conducted 10/19-23; surveyed 608 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/24). Party ID Breakdown: 52%D, 41%R, 6%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           Now 10/22 10/21 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16
B. Obama    52% 52%   52%   52%   53%   52%   52%   53%
J. McCain   40  42    41    42    41    40    39    39
Other        2   2     2     2     2     3     3     2
Undec        6   5     6     5     5     6     7     7

Fav/Unfav

B. Obama    54%/31%
J. Biden    53 /27
J. McCain   40 /43
S. Palin    39 /47

SOUTH CAROLINA
A Winthrop Univ./ETV poll; conducted 9/28-10/19; surveyed 617 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

J. McCain       55%
B. Obama        35
Other            2
Undec            7

VIRGINIA
A Winthrop Univ./ETV poll; conducted 9/28-10/19; surveyed 665 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama        45%
J. McCain       44
Other            2
Undec            6

WISCONSIN
An Allstate/National Journal poll; conducted 10/16-20 by FD; surveyed 405 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

Obama/Biden    53%
McCain/Palin   40
Undec           4

Fav/Unfav

J. Biden       57%/32%
S. Palin        46 /45

SENATE
GEORGIA
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 10/20-22; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/23). Tested: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R), '06 LG nominee/atty/ex-state Rep. Jim Martin (D) and atty Allen Buckley (L).
General Election Matchup

-              Now 10/7 9/9 6/29
S. Chambliss    46% 47%  54% 57%
J. Martin      44  44   36  28
A. Buckley      5   4    4  na
Undec           5   5    6  15

MAINE
A Critical Insights poll; conducted 10/16-19; surveyed 443 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (release, 10/23). Tested: Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Rep. Tom Allen (D-01).
General Election Matchup

-          All Dem Ind GOP 6/27
S. Collins  54% 19% 52% 85% 51%
T. Allen    42  74 31   7  37
Undec       5   7  17   8  na

MICHIGAN
A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV/WILX-TV/WJRT-TV poll; conducted 10/19-22 by EPIC-MRA; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/24). Tested: Sen. Carl Levin (D) and state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R).
General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/17 8/21 7/15
C. Levin       58% 56%  59%  58%
J. Hoogendyk    30 28   27   32
Other           1  na   na   na
Undec          11  16   14   10

MINNESOTA
A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 583 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23). Tested: Sen. Norm Coleman (R), entertainer Al Franken (D) and ex-Sen. Dean Barkley (I).
General Election Matchup

A. Franken      40%
N. Coleman      34
D. Barkley      15
Undec           8

MINNESOTA
An Allstate/National Journal poll; conducted 10/16-20 by FD; surveyed 402 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23). Tested: Coleman, Franken and Barkley.
General Election Matchup

A. Franken      37%
N. Coleman      36
D. Barkley      19
Undec           7

OREGON
A Riley Research Assoc. poll; conducted 10/10-20; surveyed 499 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/24). Tested: state House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D), Sen. Gordon Smith (R) and '04 nominee/'02/'06 OR-03 nominee/computer consultant Dave Brownlow (C).
General Election Matchup

-              All Dem GOP Ind
J. Merkley      36% 59%  6% 38%
G. Smith       35  17  69  18
D. Brownlow     4   2   5   6
Other           2   2   3   1
Undec          23  21  17  37

VIRGINIA
A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 10/20-21; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/22). Tested: ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D) and ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R).
General Election Matchup

-              Now 10/1 9/22
M. Warner       58% 57%  61%
J. Gilmore      33 31   28
Undec           9  11   11

WEST VIRGINIA
A WV Wesleyan College poll; conducted 10/20-21 by Orion Strategies (D); surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/22). Tested: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) and '88/'02 nominee/ex-state Sen. Jay Wolfe (R)
General Election Matchup

J. Rockefeller      60%
J. Wolfe            36
Undec               3

HOUSE
AL-02
A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll; conducted 10/20-21 for the DCCC; surveyed 403 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23). Tested: Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) and state Rep. Jay Love (R).
General Election Matchup

B. Bright       50%
J. Love         43

Fav/Unfav

B. Bright      49%/26%
J. Love         38 /34

FL-08
A Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/21-22 by the DCCC; surveyed 402 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/24). Tested: Rep. Rick Keller (R) and atty Alan Grayson (D).
General Election Matchup

A. Grayson      52%
R. Keller       41

Fav/Unfav

A. Grayson      36%/24%
R. Keller       35 /36

FL-08
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 10/20-21 for Keller; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/24). Tested: Keller and Grayson.
General Election Matchup

R. Keller       47%
A. Grayson      43

ME-01
A Critical Insights poll; conducted 10/16-19; surveyed 228 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.5% (release, 10/23). Tested: Iraq vet/ex-Small Business Admin regional chief Charles Summers (R) and '02 SEN nominee Chellie Pingree (D).
General Election Matchup

C. Pingree      56%
C. Summers      35
Undec           9

ME-02
A Critical Insights poll; conducted 10/16-19; surveyed 215 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.7% (release, 10/23). Tested: Rep. Michael Michaud (D) and Farmington Selectman John Frary (R).
General Election Matchup

M. Michaud      64%
J. Frary       23
Undec          13

OH-15
A Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/20-22 for '06 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy (D); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/24). Tested: Kilroy, state Sen. Steve Stivers (R), pro-life activist Don Elijah Eckhart (I) and Mark Noble (L).
General Election Matchup

M. Kilroy       46%
S. Stivers      37
D. Eckhart       3
M. Noble         2

PA-04
A Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) poll; conducted 10/20 for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/24). Tested: Rep. Jason Altmire (D) and ex-Rep. Melissa Hart (R).
General Election Matchup

J. Altmire      53%
M. Hart         35
Undec          12

SD-AL
A Sioux Falls Argus Leader/KELO-TV poll; conducted 10/13-15 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/24). Tested: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) and businessman Chris Lien (R).
General Election Matchup

S. Herseth Sandlin      62%
C. Lien                29
Undec                   9

Thursday, 10/23

PRESIDENTIAL

ALABAMA

A Capital Survey Research Center poll; conducted 10/15-16 and 10/21; surveyed 606 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Gordon, Birmingham News, 10/22).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-          Now 10/7 9/9 8/4

J. McCain   54% 55%  55% 47%

B. Obama    34  35   35  34

CALIFORNIA

A Public Policy Institute of CA poll; conducted 10/12-19; surveyed 2,004 adults; margin of error +/- 2.2%. Subsample of 1,186 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup (LVs)

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom His Wht 9/16 8/16 7/22

Obama/Biden 56% 89% 14% 53% 50% 62% 73% 49% 50%  48%  50%

McCain/Palin 33   7  75  25  37  30  18  39  40   39   35

Other        2   1   2   2   3   1   1   2   3    3    2

Undec        9   3   9  20  10   7   8  10   7   10   13

FLORIDA

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 10/16-21; surveyed 1,433 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-          All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 9/29 9/26 9/9 8/24 7/29

B. Obama    49% 11% 85% 51% 46% 51% 51%  49%  43% 43%  46%

J. McCain   44  84  10  39  45  42  43   43   50  47   44

Other       1  --   1   2   2  --   1    1    1   2    2

Undec       7   5   4   8   7   6   5    7    6   8    7

ILLINOIS

A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 572 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/17

Obama/Biden    61% 53%

McCain/Palin   32  37

Other           2   2

Undec           4   6

INDIANA

A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 586 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/17

Obama/Biden    51% 43%

McCain/Palin   42  47

Other           1   2

Undec           3   5

IOWA

A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 586 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/17

Obama/Biden    52% 45%

McCain/Palin   39  45

Other           2   2

Undec           6   7

MICHGIAN

A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 562 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/17

Obama/Biden    58% 48%

McCain/Palin   36  44

Other           1   1

Undec           3   6

MINNESOTA

A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 583 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/17

Obama/Biden    57% 47%

McCain/Palin   38  45

Other           1   2

Undec           2   5

NEVADA

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 911 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 700 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 10/22).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              Now     9/30    8/26

-              RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs

B. Obama        54% 51% 54% 51% 49%

J. McCain       41  46  43  47  44

Neither          4   1   2   1   6

Other           1   1   *   *   1

Undec           *   *   *   1   1

-              Now     9/30    8/26

-              RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs

B. Obama        51% 49% 51% 49% 41%

J. McCain       40  43  39  44  41

R. Nader         3   3   5   4   6

B. Barr          2   2   1   1   5

C. McKinney      1   *   1   *   3

None            2   *   1   1   3

Other           1   1   1   *   *

Undec           *   *   1   1   2

NORTH CAROLINA

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 940 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 644 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/22).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              Now     10/6    9/16

-              RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs

Obama/Biden    51% 51% 50% 49% 47%

McCain/Palin   46  47  49  49  48

Neither         1   1   2   1   3

Other           *   *   *   *   1

Undec           1   1   *   *   1

-              Now     10/6    9/16

-              RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs

B. Obama        51% 51% 49% 49% 45%

J. McCain       44  46  48  48  46

B. Barr          3   2   2   2   2

None            1   *   1   1   2

Other           *   *   *   *   4

Undec           1   1   *   *   1

OHIO

A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 564 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/17

Obama/Biden    53% 46%

McCain/Palin   41  45

Other           2   2

Undec           3   5

OHIO

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 10/16-21; surveyed 1,360 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.7% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-          All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 9/29 9/26 9/9 8/24 7/29

B. Obama    52%  9% 85% 50% 46% 58% 50%  49%  49% 44%  46%

J. McCain   38  85   8  37  44  33  42   42   44  43   44

Other       1  --   2   1   2   1   1    1    1   2    1

Undec       8   5   5  11   8   8   7    8    5  11    8

OHIO

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 938 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 737 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 10/22).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              Now     10/6    9/16 9/2

-              RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs  RVs

Obama/Biden    51% 50% 50% 50% 49%  47%

McCain/Palin   45  46  46  47  47   45

Neither         2   2   3   2   2    5

Other           1   1   *   *   *    1

Undec           1   1   1   1   2    2

-              Now     10/6    9/16 9/2

-              RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs  RVs

B. Obama        50% 49% 47% 48% 46%  45%

J. McCain       43  44  44  45  44   44

R. Nader         3   3   3   3   4    5

B. Barr          2   2   2   2   2    2

C. McKinney      *   *   1   *   *    1

None            1   1   2   1   1    3

Other           *   *   *   *   1    *

Undec           1   1   1   1   1    1

PENNSYLVANIA

A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 566 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/17

Obama/Biden    52% 45%

McCain/Palin   42  45

Other           1   1

Undec           3   7

PENNSYLVANIA

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 10/16-21; surveyed 1,425 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-          All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 9/29 9/26 9/9 8/24 7/29

B. Obama    53% 13% 87% 55% 47% 59% 54%  49%  48% 49%  49%

J. McCain   40  81   9  35  45  35  39   43   45  42   42

Other       2   2   1   2   3   1   1    1    1   1    1

Undec       5   4   3   7   5   6   6    7    6   9    8

PENNSYLVANIA

An Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll; conducted 10/18-22; surveyed 602 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/23). Party ID Breakdown: 52%D, 42%R, 6%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-          Now 10/21 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16 10/15

B. Obama    52% 52%   52%   53%   52%   52%   53%   53%

J. McCain   42  41    42    41    40    39    39    37

Other       2   2     2     2     3     3     2     3

Undec       5   6     5     5     6     7     7     7

VIRGINIA

A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 10/20-21; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/22).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 10/1 9/22

Obama/Biden    47% 82% 11% 49% 43% 51% 36% 92% 45%  44%

McCain/Palin   45  12  83  38  48  42  55   3  48   47

Other          --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --    1

Undec           8   6   6  13   9   7   9   5   7    8

VIRGINIA

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 927 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 647 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/22).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              Now     10/14   9/30    9/9

-              RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs

Obama/Biden    54% 54% 53% 53% 54% 53% 46%

McCain/Palin   42  44  43  43  42  44  50

Neither         2   1   2   2   3   2   3

Other           *   *   1   1   *   *   1

Undec           1   *   1   1   1   *   1

WEST VIRGINIA

A WV Wesleyan College poll; conducted 10/20-21 by Orion Strategies; surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/22).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

J. McCain       49%

B. Obama        44

Neither         4

Undec           3

WEST VIRGINIA

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 893 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 674 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 10/22).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              Now     9/23

-              RVs LVs RVs LVs

McCain/Palin   51% 53% 50% 50%

Obama/Biden    44  44  44  46

Neither         2   2   4   3

Other           1   1   1   1

Undec           1   1   1   *

-              Now     9/23

-              RVs LVs RVs LVs

J. McCain       51% 53% 47% 49%

B. Obama        41  41  41  44

R. Nader         4   2   6   5

C. McKinney      1   1   1   1

None            2   1   3   2

Other           *   *   *   *

Undec           1   1   1   *

WISCONSIN

A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 584 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/17

Obama/Biden    53% 45%

McCain/Palin   41  44

Other          --   1

Undec           4   7

WISCONSIN

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/20-21 for WISC-TV; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/22). Party ID Breakdown: 37%D, 32%R, 31%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 10/6 9/25

Obama/Biden    52% 47% 57% 86% 11% 54% 51%  49%

McCain/Palin   41  46  36   7  82  39  41   43

Other           4   5   3   3   4   5  na   na

Undec           3   2   4   5   3   2  na   na

SENATE

KENTUCKY

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/19-21 for the Lexington Herald-Leader; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/23). Tested: Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and '03/'07 GOV candidate/businessman Bruce Lunsford (D).

General Election Matchup

-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 10/16 9/17

M. McConnell    47% 51% 43% 15% 87% 46% 53%  5% 46%   50%

B. Lunsford     43  40  46  75   6  40  39  73  42    37

Undec          10   9  11  10   9  14   8  22  12    13

Fav/Unfav

-              Now     10/16   9/17    7/30

M. McConnell    48%/48% 47%/46% 51%/43% 49%/41%

B. Lunsford     47 /45  48 /45  47 /44  44 /42

McConnell As Sen.

-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind

Approve        45% 50% 40% 23% 72% 41%

Disapprove     46  43  49  68  19  49

NEW JERSEY

A Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey Poll; conducted 10/15-18; surveyed 900 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 723 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 10/22). Tested: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) and '96 nominee/ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer (R).

General Election Matchup

-              Now                         9/14    7/21

-              All LVs Dem Ind GOP Men Wom All LVs All LVs

F. Lautenberg   51% 52% 84% 42% 15% 51% 52% 46% 46% 44% 45%

D. Zimmer       32  36   5  33  77  36  28  33  36  34  37

Other           2   2   1   5   1   1   4   5   5   7   6

Not vote         4   3   3   4   3   5   2   1   1   1   1

Undec          11   8   8  15   4   7  14  16  14  13  11

Fav/Unfav

-              All     LVs     Dem     Ind     GOP

F. Lautenberg   45%/24% 48%/26% 68%/ 6% 39%/25% 21%/55%

D. Zimmer       28 /16  31 /16  12 /24  27 /13  58 / 8

Lautenberg As Sen.

-          All LVs Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 7/21 4/08 1/08

Approve    48% 49% 66% 44% 24% 46% 50% 45%  48%  43%

Disapprove 28  32  10  31  57  32  25  33   31   28

Lautenberg Is Too Old To Be An Effective Sen.

-          All LVs Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 9/14 7/21 4/08 1/08

Agree      29% 33% 21% 27% 42% 34% 25% 31%  31%  41%  34%

Disagree   61  59  68  63  51  59  63  57   54   46   51

HOUSE

ME-01

A Pan Atlantic SMS Group poll; conducted 10/13-16; surveyed 207 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.8% (release, 10/22). Tested: Iraq vet/ex-Small Business Admin regional chief Charles Summers (R) and '02 SEN nominee Chellie Pingree (D).

General Election Matchup

C. Pingree      43

C. Summers      32

Undec          25

ME-02

A Pan Atlantic SMS Group poll; conducted 10/13-16; surveyed 193 LVs; margin of error +/- 7.1% (release, 10/22). Tested: Rep. Michael Michaud (D) and Farmington Selectman John Frary (R).

General Election Matchup

M. Michaud      60%

J. Frary        26

Undec          14

MI-09

A Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 10/21 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23). Tested: ex-MI lottery commissioner/state Sen. Gary Peters (D), Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) and assisted suicide advocate Jack Kevorkian (I).

General Election Matchup

-                  Now 10/5

G. Peters           46% 46%

J. Knollenberg      36  37

J. Kevorkian         2   2

OH-15

A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll; conducted 10/19-20 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23). Tested: '06 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy (D), state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) and pro-life activist Don Elijah Eckhart (I).

General Election Matchup

-              Now 10/1

M. Kilroy       44% 44%

S. Stivers      36  36

D. Eckhart       8   7

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 10/1

B. Obama        51% 46%

J. McCain       39  39

PA-12

A Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) poll; conducted 10/21; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23). Tested: Rep. John Murtha (D) and vet/ex-army lieutenant colonel William Russell (R).

General Election Matchup

J. Murtha       46%

W. Russell      41

Other           4

Undec           8