Senate 2010

Iowa
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/14; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/17). Tested: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and '82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D).

General Election Matchup

-            Now 4/29 3/17 2/18 1/26
C. Grassley  54% 53%  55%  53%  59%
R. Conlin    37  40   36   36   31
Other         2   3    4    5    4
Undec         8   4    5    6    5

Fav/Unfav

-            Now     4/29    3/17    2/18    1/26    9/22
C. Grassley  68%/31% 63%/34% 66%/31% 68%/29% 67%/30% 68%/30%
R. Conlin    44 /36  44 /40  39 /39  35 /45  35 /45   n/a

Senate 2010

California
A Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research (R) poll; conducted 5/30-6/1; surveyed 750 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 6/3). Tested: '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, Assemb. Chuck DeVore and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. (Note: Each candidate is ID by his/her ballot designation: Campbell is "Economist/Business Educator"; DeVore is "Assemblyman/Military Reservist"; and Fiorina is "Business Executive".)

Primary Election Matchup

-            All Men Wom 4/13
C. Fiorina   40% 39% 43% 17%
T. Campbell  25  27  20  31
C. DeVore    13  16  10  15
Other         1   2  --   1
Undec        20  15  25  35

Iowa
A KCCI-TV poll; conducted 5/31-6/2 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/3). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 33%D, 29%R, 38%I. Tested: '82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D), atty/ex-state Sen. Tom Fiegen (D) and ex-state Rep. Bob Krause (D).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

-            All Men Wom
R. Conlin    48% 45% 51%
B. Krause    13  14  12
T. Fiegen    12  10  14
Undec        27  31  23

General Election Matchups

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/5 2/17
C. Grassley  50% 12% 87% 55% 58% 42% 49% 56%
R. Conlin    42  79   6  37  35  49  40  35
Undec         8   9   7   8   7   9  11   9

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Grassley  56% 18% 88% 65% 62% 50%
T. Fiegen    33  62   5  29  27  39
Undec        11  20   7   6  11  11

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Grassley  55% 17% 88% 63% 60% 50%
B. Krause    35  67   5  30  29  41
Undec        10  16   7   7  11   9

Fav/Unfav

-            Now     5/5     2/17
C. Grassley  56%/39% 58%/37% 59%/35%
R. Conlin    48 /36  45 /35  41 /36
B. Krause    32 /29   n/a     n/a
T. Fiegen    28 /27   n/a     n/a

A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25-27; surveyed 1,277 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.7% (release, 6/4). Party ID breakdown: 38%R, 37%D, 26%I. Tested: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), Conlin, Fiegen and Krause.

General Election Matchups

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Grassley  57% 25% 88% 57% 57% 56%
R. Conlin    31  61   5  27  33  30
Undec        12  13   8  17  10  14

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Grassley  56% 23% 88% 55% 57% 54%
T. Fiegen    28  56   4  23  31  25
Undec        17  22   8  22  12  21

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Grassley  56% 23% 90% 54% 59% 54%
B. Krause    26  54   2  22  29  24
Undec        17  23   7  23  12  22

Grassley As Sen.

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve      46% 27% 68% 42% 46% 46%
Disapprove   37  56  17  38  40  34

Fav/Unfav

-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
R. Conlin    19%/29% 38%/15%  3%/43% 14%/27% 21%/34% 17%/23%
B. Krause     6 /14  10 /17   2 /11   6 /13   7 /18   5 / 9
T. Fiegen     5 /13  10 /15   2 /13   2 /13   6 /18   4 /10

Missouri
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/2; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/3). Tested: Rep. Roy Blunt (R-07) and Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D).

General Election Matchup

-            Now 5/3 4/6 3/9 2/10 1/19 12/17 9/21
R. Blunt     45% 50% 48% 47% 49%  49%  44%   46%
R. Carnahan  44  42  42  41  42   43   46    46
Other         4   4   3   4   3    3    4     2
Undec         6   4   7   8   6    5    6     5

Fav/Unfav

-            Now     5/3     4/6     3/9     2/10    1/19
R. Blunt     54%/38% 56%/36% 49%/43% 56%/37% 54%/40% 56%/34%
R. Carnahan  52 /40  48 /47  47 /46  47 /48  49 /45  49 /46

Nevada
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/31-6/2 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsample of 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/3). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 43%D, 40%R, 17%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), '04 state Senate nominee/'06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R) and Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian.

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-             All Men Wom 4/28
S. Angle      34% 36% 32% 13%
S. Lowden     25  26  24  38
D. Tarkanian  24  22  26  28
Other          5   6   4  12
Undec         12  10  14   9

General Election Matchups

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/28
H. Reid       43% 79%  7% 35% 37% 49% 36% 80% 68% 41%
S. Angle      37   6  72  35  44  30  44   3  11  44
S. Ashjian     2   0   4   3   2   2   2   0   0   5
Other          3   3   2   6   3   3   4   0   0   2
None           6   6   5   7   6   6   7   0   0   2
Undec          7   5   7  12   6   8   5  17  20   6

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/28
H. Reid       42% 78%  6% 35% 36% 48% 35% 80% 67% 41%
S. Lowden     38   5  75  36  45  31  45   3  14  45
S. Ashjian     2   0   4   3   2   2   2   0   0   4
Other          3   3   2   6   3   3   4   0   0   2
None           7   7   6   8   7   7   8   0   0   2
Undec          8   7   7  12   7   9   6  17  19   6

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/28
H. Reid       43% 79%  7% 35% 37% 49% 36% 80% 68% 41%
D. Tarkanian  39   7  75  37  46  32  46   3  12  43
S. Ashjian     2   0   4   3   2   2   2   0   0   6
Other          3   3   2   6   3   3   4   0   0   2
None           6   6   5   7   6   6   4   0   0   2
Undec          7   5   7  12   6   8   5  17  20   6

Fav/Unfav

-             All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/28    1/20
D. Tarkanian  40%/38% 19%/59% 65%/16% 36%/35% 44%/33% 48%/31%
S. Lowden     39 /40  12 /64  69 /15  36 /37  42 /34  45 /26
S. Angle      38 /41  16 /68  63 /13  36 /38  41 /29   n/a
H. Reid       40 /52  68 /27  12 /76  34 /59  37 /53  34 /55
S. Ashjian     8 /30   4 /41  12 /17   8 /33   7 /27   n/a

Pennsylvania
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/2; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/4). Tested: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and ex-Rep./ex-Club for Growth Pres. Pat Toomey (R).

General Election Matchup

-           Now 5/19 5/6 4/12 3/15 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11
P. Toomey   45% 42%  42% 47%  42%  43% 43%  44%  37%   43%
J. Sestak   38  46   40  36   37   35  35   38   38    35
Other        5   3   10   5    7    7   6    6    6     5
Undec       12   9    9  12   15   15  16   13   19    18

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     5/19    5/6     4/12    3/15    2/8
P. Toomey   55%/30% 56%/25% 51%/36% 54%/29% 53%/33% 57%/28%
J. Sestak   49 /40  52 /33  50 /37  38 /39  40 /38  33 /42

Senate 2010

California
A Los Angeles Times/USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences poll; conducted 5/19-26 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)/American Viewpoint (R); surveyed 1,506 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsample of 521 GOPers and unaffiliated voters who say they might vote in the GOP primary; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 5/30). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 41%D, 28%R, 27%I. Tested: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Asseb. Chuck DeVore (R) and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-            All Men Wom 3/30
C. Fiorina   38% 36% 40% 25%
T. Campbell  23  25  20  29
C. DeVore    16  17  14   9
Other         2   3   1   4
Undec        20  18  23  33

General Election Matchups (Split Samples)

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
T. Campbell  45% 18% 79% 52% 52% 40%
B. Boxer     38  64   7  31  33  41
Other         3   2   3   3   4   2
Undec        13  15  10  14  10  16

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Boxer     46% 76% 12% 37% 45% 46%
C. DeVore    36  10  73  40  40  34
Other         6   5   5  10   5   8
Undec        10   8  10  13   8  13

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Boxer     44% 72% 11% 38% 46% 41%
C. Fiorina   38  12  76  39  39  38
Other         4   2   3   8   3   5
Undec        13  12   9  14  11  14

Fav/Unfav

-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/30    11/2
B. Boxer     40%/44% 64%/17% 11%/78% 34%/51% 46%/37% 49%/36%
C. Fiorina   22 /20  11 /29  39 /10  24 /18  11 /16   9 /12
T. Campbell  19 /14  12 /15  30 /12  21 /14  18 /12  17 / 8
C. DeVore    10 / 9   4 / 9  17 / 9  11 / 7   8 / 6   6 / 4

Re-Elect Boxer?

-                        All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Definitely re-elect her  18% 33%  3% 13% 18% 19%
Probably re-elect her    16  27   5  13  15  17
Probably someone else    13  11  17  13  13  11
Definitely someone else  36  10  67  41  47  38
Depends                   4   4   2   5   3   3
Undec                    12  14   6  14   7  10

Do You Want A Sen. Who Will Mostly Support/Oppose Obama's Policies?

-        All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Support  54% 86% 17% 46% 50% 58%
Oppose   35   5  75  39  41  29

Have You Seen Or Heard Any Radio Or TV Ads For Any SEN Or GOV Candidates?

-    All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Yes  77% 73% 84% 77% 79% 75%
No   21  25  14  21  20  23

Connecticut
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/24-26 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/28). Tested: AG Richard Blumenthal (D), ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) and ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-              All Men Wom
L. McMahon     48% 54% 42%
R. Simmons     44  39  49
Undec           8   7   9

General Election Matchups

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/13
R. Blumenthal  52% 80%  9% 51% 49% 55% 56%
L. McMahon     33   7  77  32  37  29  34
Undec          15  13  14  17  14  16  10

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/13
R. Blumenthal  52% 79%  7% 48% 47% 53% 54%
R. Simmons     37   9  81  38  41  33  35
Undec          13  12  12  14  12  14  11

Fav/Unfav

-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     9/10
R. Blumenthal  53%/35% 77%/12% 16%/71% 52%/36%  n/a
R. Simmons     42 /35  20 /55  76 /10  43 /31  43%/17%
L. McMahon     31 /37   9 /53  69 /12  30 /36   n/a

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)

-              All     Men     Wom
L. McMahon     64%/12% 69%/10% 59%/14%
R. Simmons     62 /22  59 /26  65 /18

Iowa
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25-27; surveyed 406 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/1). Tested: '82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D), atty/ex-state Sen. Tom Fiegen (D) and ex-state Rep. Bob Krause (D).

Primary Election Matchup

-          All Men Wom
R. Conlin  48% 46% 49%
B. Krause  13  13  13
T. Fiegen   8  11   5
Undec      31  29  32

Fav/Unfav

-          All     Men     Wom
R. Conlin  38%/15% 44%/17% 34%/14%
T. Fiegen  12 /16  14 /21  10 /12
B. Krause  11 /18  14 /26   9 /13

Kentucky
A Louisville Courier-Journal/WHAS-TV poll; conducted 5/25-27 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 569 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 5/28). Party ID breakdown: 54%D, 40%R, 5%I. Tested: AG Jack Conway (D) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R).

General Election Matchup

-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/2 8/17
R. Paul    51% 29% 82% 47% 54% 48% 39%  38%
J. Conway  45  68  16  34  44  46  44   43
Undec       4   3   3  19   2   6  17   19

New Hampshire
A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25; surveyed 505 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/28). Tested: AG Kelly Ayotte (R), businessman Jim Bender (R), businessman Bill Binnie (R) and '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R).

Primary Election Matchup

-              All Men Wom 2/4
K. Ayotte      38% 36% 39% 37%
B. Binnie      29  31  28  23
O. Lamontagne   9  11   8  12
J. Bender       4   5   4  n/a
Undec          16  13  17  28

Fav/Unfav

-              Now     2/4
K. Ayotte      57%/16% 49%/11%
B. Binnie      52 /14  38 / 9
J. Bender      20 /15   n/a
O. Lamontagne  20 /17  26 /10

Senate 2010

Arizona
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/3-5; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/6). Party ID breakdown: 42%R, 32%D, 26%I. Tested: Sen. John McCain (R), ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) and Tucson Vice Mayor Rodney Glassman (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-              All Men Wom 3/31
J. McCain      48% 51% 45% 52%
J.D. Hayworth  36  37  35  37
Other           6   7   5  n/a
Undec          10   5  15  11

General Election Matchups

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 3/31
J. McCain      48%  7% 81% 46% 54% 42% 58%  3% 10% 52%
R. Glassman    35  73   6  35  32  38  29  67  58  33
Undec          17  20  13  19  14  20  13  30  32  15

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 3/31
J.D. Hayworth  43%  6% 73% 40% 49% 37% 53%  6%  2% 48%
R. Glassman    42  83   7  48  37  47  37  65  60  37
Undec          15  11  20  12  14  16  10  33  34  15

Fav/Unfav

-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/31
J. McCain      43%/52% 11%/82% 74%/24% 33%/60% 47%/46%
J.D. Hayworth  35 /46   7 /77  63 /17  24 /55  34 /42
R. Glassman    26 /16  54 / 7   7 /25  22 /13  23 /15

Arkansas
An AR News Bureau/Stephens Media poll; conducted 5/3-5 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research; surveyed 625 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversamples of 500 Dem primary LVs and 500 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.4% for each (release, 5/7). Tested: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), LG Bill Halter (D), businessman D.C. Morrison (D), state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), Rep. John Boozman (R-03), Safe Foods Corp CEO Curtis Coleman (R), state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R), '04 nominee/'06 LG nominee/ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (R) and ret. Army Col./ind. security contractor Conrad Reynolds (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

B. Lincoln     44%
B. Halter      32
D.C. Morrison   7
Undec          17

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

J. Boozman     48%
J. Holt        17
G. Baker       11
K. Hendren      5
C. Reynolds     2
C. Coleman      1
Other           1
Undec          15

General Election Matchups

-              Now 1/20
G. Baker       47% 43%        G. Baker       42%
B. Lincoln     39  39         B. Halter      34
Undec          14  18         Undec          24

J. Boozman     52%            J. Boozman     56%
B. Lincoln     35             B. Halter      32
Undec          13             Undec          12

-              Now 1/20
J. Holt        45% 37%        J. Holt        42%
B. Lincoln     40  43         B. Halter      36
Undec          15  20         Undec          22

Fav/Unfav

-              Now     1/20
J. Boozman     38%/11%  n/a
B. Halter      29 /21  28%/11%
B. Lincoln     28 /53  39 /41

Florida
A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll; conducted 5/3-5; surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 5/6). Party reg. breakdown: 43%D, 38%R, 19%I. Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (I), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

General Election Matchup

-         All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 3/25
C. Crist  38% 48% 18% 55% 37% 39% 44% 19% 17% 35%
M. Rubio  32   4  70  19  37  27  32   3  64  28
K. Meek   19  36   3  13  16  22  13  68   6  20
Undec     11  12   9  13  10  12  11  10  13  17

Crist As Gov.

-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 8/08 2/08 11/07
Excellent/good    51% 68% 29% 55% 46% 56% 57%  64%  61%
Fair/poor         48  32  70  44  54  42  41   32   34

Fav/Unfav

-         Now     3/25    6/26    5/09    11/06   10/06
C. Crist  41%/31% 37%/31% 49%/21% 49%/15% 47%/32% 51%/21%
M. Rubio  35 /28  27 /17  18 /11  13 / 5   n/a     n/a
K. Meek   17 /11  15 / 8  11 / 5  11 / 2   n/a     n/a

Crist Recently Vetoed A Bill That Would Have Made Teacher Pay In FL Based On Classroom Performance As Measured By Professional Evaluations And The Test Scores Of Students

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve       55% 81% 21% 65% 52% 58%
Disapprove    38   8  75  30  43  33

Iowa
A KCCI-TV poll; conducted 5/3-5 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/6). Party ID breakdown: 33%D, 29%R, 38%I. Tested: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and '82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D).

General Election Matchup

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/17
C. Grassley  49% 13% 85% 53% 56% 42% 56%
R. Conlin    40  76   6  35  34  46  35
Undec        11  11   9  12  10  12   9

Fav/Unfav

-            Now     2/17
C. Grassley  58%/37% 59%/35%
R. Conlin    45 /35  41 /36

Kentucky
A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/4; surveyed 611 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/6). Tested: Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R).

Primary Election Matchup

-           All Men Wom 2/18
R. Paul     43% 45% 41% 44%
T. Grayson  28  27  30  23
Other        8  10   7  n/a
Undec       21  19  23  33

Fav/Unfav

-           All     Men     Wom     2/18
R. Paul     50%/24% 57%/23% 44%/25% 43%/12%
T. Grayson  45 /26  51 /27  40 /24  31 /20

North Carolina
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/5; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8%. Subsample of 522 Dem primary runoff LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 5/6). Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) and Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D).

Primary Runoff Election Matchup (Dems)

E. Marshall    42%
C. Cunningham  37
Other           4
Undec          17

General Election Matchups

-              Now 4/19 3/22 2/23 1/27
R. Burr        50% 53%  51%  51%  50%
C. Cunningham  37  31   32   29   34
Other           3   4    7    6    5
Undec          10  13   11   14   11

-              Now 4/19 3/22 2/23 1/27 9/15
R. Burr        48% 53%  51%  50%  47%  48%
E. Marshall    40  32   35   34   37   38
Other           3   6    6    4    6    3
Undec           9  12    8   12   10   11

Fav/Unfav

-              Now     4/19    3/22    2/23    1/27    9/15
R. Burr        57%/33% 55%/31% 60%/26% 60%/28% 56%/32% 58%/26%
E. Marshall    45 /37  36 /40  38 /39  44 /32  41 /36  37 /34
C. Cunningham  43 /35  34 /37  29 /32  34 /34  34 /29   n/a

Ohio
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/5; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/7). Tested: LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-OMB Dir./ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R).

General Election Matchup

-           Now 3/30 3/4 2/6 1/12 12/7 9/23
L. Fisher   43% 38%  39% 39% 37%  36%  40%
R. Portman  42  43   44  43  44   38   41
Other        4   4    5   5   4    8    6
Undec       11  14   12  13  14   18   14

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     3/30    3/4     2/6     1/12    12/7
L. Fisher   48%/34% 39%/38% 41%/37% 38%/39% 41%/39% 36%/35%
R. Portman  45 /26  45 /26  45 /27  45 /24  49 /25  48 /21

Pennsylvania
A Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call tracking poll; conducted 5/3-6; surveyed 410 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 5/7). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak (07).

Primary Election Matchup

-            Now 5/5 5/4 5/3 5/2 5/1
A. Specter   43% 45% 48% 46% 49% 48%
J. Sestak    43  40  40  42  40  42
Other/undec  13  14  11  12  11  11

Fav/Unfav

-            Now     5/5     5/4     5/3     5/2     5/1
A. Specter   54%/34% 56%/30% 57%/29% 55%/33% 58%/32% 58%/31%
J. Sestak    48 /13  44 /13  42 /14  45 /11  43 /12  45 /12

Senate 2010

California
A Los Angeles Times/USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences poll; conducted 3/23-30 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)/American Viewpoint (R); surveyed 1,515 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsample of 511 GOPers and unaffiliated voters who say they might vote in the GOP primary; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 4/3). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 45%D, 31%R, 20% decline-to-state, 4% other. Tested: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Asseb. Chuck DeVore (R) and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-            All Men Wom
T. Campbell  29% 32% 25%
C. Fiorina   25  28  21
C. DeVore     9   9   9
Other         4   2   6
Undec        33  28  39

General Election Matchup

-                All Dem GOP DTS Oth Men Wom
B. Boxer         48% 71% 13% 50% 47% 45% 50%
Generic GOPer    34  12  72  26  32  39  30
Other             6   6   7   5   8   7   6
Undec            12  11   9  18  14  10  13

Boxer As Sen.

-            All Dem GOP DTS Oth Men Wom 11/2
Approve      40% 61% 12% 38% 42% 38% 43% 43%
Disapprove   38  18  71  31  39  43  33  36

Fav/Unfav

-            All     Men     Wom     11/2
B. Boxer     46%/37% 43%/42% 48%/33% 49%/36%
T. Campbell  18 /12  21 /15  15 / 9  17 / 8
C. Fiorina   11 /16  14 /20   9 /13   9 /12
C. DeVore     8 / 6   9 / 7   6 / 5   6 / 4

As You May Know, Obama Recently Signed Into Law Legislation To Reform Health Care. Though The Senate Is Still Debating This Bill And May Make Some Adjustments This Week, If Your Rep. Or Sen. Supported This Bill To Change The Health Care System Would That Make You More/Less Likely To Support Your Rep/ Or Sen. In Nov., Or Would It Not Make Much Difference In Your Vote?

-               All Dem GOP DTS Oth Men Wom
More likely     46% 61% 23% 48% 50% 46% 47%
Less likely     29  15  55  23  22  32  27
No difference   19  18  17  25  19  19  19

How Important A Factor Is It That Someone Is A "True Conservative" When Considering Who You Will Support For The GOP Nod For SEN Or GOV? (GOPers)

-                        All Men Wom
Extremely important      20% 20% 20%
Very important           26  24  28
Somewhat important       31  30  43
Not at all important     20  21  19

When Considering Whom To Support For The GOP Nod For SEN Or GOV, Would You Prefer A Strong Conservative Candidate Who Can Motivate GOPers, Or Do You Prefer A More Centrist Candidate Who Has Greater Appeal To Indies? (GOPers)

-                All Men Wom
Centrist         46% 52% 40%
Conservative     42  38  45
Both              6   5   6

Iowa
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 2/18-20 for the Progressive Change Campaign Cmte (D)/Democracy for America (D)/Credo Action (D); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/5). Party ID breakdown: 33%D, 29%R, 38%I.

Re-Elect Grassley?

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Re-elect him  42% 12% 81% 39% 48% 36%
Someone new   31  62   8  22  27  35
Undec         27  26  11  39  25  29

Ohio
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/30; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/2). Tested: Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D), LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-OMB Dir./ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R).

General Election Matchups

-           Now 3/4 2/6 1/12 12/7 9/23
R. Portman  45% 43% 42% 43%  40%  40%
J. Brunner  38  37  38  40   33   38
Other        4   6   5   5    7    5
Undec       13  15  15  13   20   18

-           Now 3/4 2/6 1/12 12/7 9/23
R. Portman  43% 44% 43% 44%  38%  41%
L. Fisher   38  39  39  37   36   40
Other        4   5   5   4    8    6
Undec       14  12  13  14   18   14

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     3/4     2/6     1/12    12/7    9/23
R. Portman  45%/26% 45%/27% 45%/24% 49%/25% 48%/21% 45%/23%
J. Brunner  44 /41  39 /38  43 /32  37 /39  34 /36  37 /36
L. Fisher   39 /38  41 /37  38 /39  41 /39  36 /35  42 /34

Senate 2010

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/18; surveyed 494 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/23). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Primary Election Matchup

-           Now 2/18 1/27 12/14 10/20 8/17
M. Rubio    56% 54%  49%  43%   35%   31%
C. Crist    34  36   37   43    49    53
Other        1   4    3    5     4     5
Undec        8   7   11    9    12    11

Crist As Gov.

-           Now 2/18 12/14 10/20
Approve     49% 48%  56%   57%
Disapprove  48  49   43    42

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     2/18    1/27    12/14   10/20   8/17
M. Rubio    65%/19% 67%/15% 67%/14% 64%/15% 55%/22% 53%/19%
C. Crist    59 /40  54 /44  62 /37  61 /38  67 /32  75 /23

Indiana
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/17-18; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/23). Tested: Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) and Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-08).

General Election Matchups

-              Now 2/17
D. Coats       49% 46%
B. Ellsworth   34  32
Other           6   7
Undec          12  15

-              Now 2/17
J. Hostettler  50% 46%
B. Ellsworth   32  27
Other           4   7
Undec          15  19

-              Now 2/17
M. Stutzman    41% 40%
B. Ellsworth   34  30
Other           6   9
Undec          18  21

Fav/Unfav

-              Now     2/17    1/24
D. Coats       53%/30% 54%/27%  n/a
J. Hostettler  51 /26  48 /22  44%/27%
B. Ellsworth   43 /33  35 /29   n/a
M. Stutzman    37 /24  35 /25  31 /26

Iowa
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/22). Tested: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), '82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D), atty/ex-state Sen. Tom Fiegen (D) and ex-state Rep. Bob Krause (D).

General Election Matchups

-            Now 2/18 1/26
C. Grassley  55% 53%  59%
R. Conlin    36  36   31
Other         4   5    4
Undec         5   6    5

-            Now 2/18 1/26
C. Grassley  57% 56%  61%
T. Fiegen    28  28   25
Other         7   6    4
Undec         9  11   10

-            Now 2/18 1/26 9/22
C. Grassley  57% 55%  59%  56%
B. Krause    31  33   26   30
Other         4   5    7    7
Undec         8   8    8    7

Fav/Unfav

-            Now     2/18    1/26    9/22
C. Grassley  66%/31% 68%/29% 67%/30% 68%/30%
R. Conlin    39 /39  35 /45  35 /45   n/a
B. Krause    33 /25  27 /31  27 /35  33 /30
T. Fiegen    23 /31  22 /34  23 /37   n/a

Vermont
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/18; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/22).

General Election Matchup

P. Leahy       58%
Generic GOPer  33
Other           2
Undec           7

Fav/Unfav

P. Leahy       66%/32%

Wisconsin
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 3/20-21; surveyed 700 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 3/23). Tested: Sen. Russ Feingold (D), ex-Gov/ex-HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson (R), developer Terrence Wall (R) and businessman/Army vet Dave Westlake (R).

General Election Matchups

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/22
R. Feingold  47% 89%  9% 40% 41% 52% 50%
T. Thompson  44   8  83  45  50  39  41
Undec         9   4   8  14   9   8  10

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/22
R. Feingold  48% 89%  8% 43% 41% 53% 48%
T. Wall      34   5  70  32  43  27  34
Undec        18   7  22  25  16  20  19

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/22
R. Feingold  48% 89% 10% 42% 43% 53% 47%
D. Westlake  31   4  64  28  39  25  32
Undec        21   8  26  29  19  23  21

Feingold As Sen

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/22
Approve      45% 73% 14% 46% 40% 49% 45%
Disapprove   41  13  71  43  51  34  37

Fav/Unfav

-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     11/22
T. Thompson  40%/44% 12%/73% 70%/16% 40%/40% 38%/45%
T. Wall       4 /17   2 /22   8 /14   2 /14   2 /13
D. Westlake   2 / 8   3 /10   2 / 9   2 / 6   2 / 9

Senate 2010

California
A KABC-TV/KFSN-TV/KGTV-TV/KPIX-TV poll; conducted 2/12-14 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/16).

Boxer As Sen.

- Now 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/29 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/29
Approve 47% 48% 39% 43% 41% 46% 50% 48% 54%
Disapprove 43 45 49 47 48 44 42 47 41

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 2/23). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R), ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17).

General Election Matchups

- Now 1/27 12/14 10/19 8/17 6/22
C. Crist 48% 48% 42% 46% 48% 46%
K. Meek 32 33 36 34 29 28
Other 11 10 11 9 10 12
Undec 9 9 11 11 13 14

- Now 1/27 12/14 10/19 8/17
M. Rubio 51% 49% 49% 46% 43%
K. Meek 31 32 35 31 30
Other 7 6 4 8 8
Undec 11 13 12 15 19

Crist As Gov.

- Now 1/27 12/14 10/20
Approve 52% 51% 52% 49%
Disapprove 45 47 45 49 

Fav/Unfav

- Now 1/27 12/14 10/19 8/17 6/22
C. Crist 55%/41% 58%/40% 59%/38% 57%/41% 64%/35% 57%/36%
M. Rubio 51 /27 51 /31 41 /33 33 /34 41 /31 n/a
K. Meek 42 /33 38 /36 51 /29 39 /34 37 /34 37 /36

Iowa
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/22). Tested: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), '82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D), atty/ex-state Sen. Tom Fiegen (D) and ex-state Rep. Bob Krause (D).

General Election Matchups

- Now 1/26
C. Grassley 53% 59%
R. Conlin 36 31
Other 5 4
Undec 6 5 

- Now 1/26
C. Grassley 56% 61%
T. Fiegen 28 25
Other 6 4
Undec 11 10 

- Now 1/26 9/22
C. Grassley 55% 59% 56%
B. Krause 33 26 30
Other 5 7 7
Undec 8 8 7 

Fav/Unfav

- Now 1/26 9/22
C. Grassley 68%/29% 67%/30% 68%/30%
R. Conlin 35 /45 35 /45 n/a
B. Krause 27 /31 27 /35 33 /30
T. Fiegen 22 /34 23 /37 n/a 

Nevada
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 2/15-16 for the Retail Assn of NV; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Subsample of 185 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 7.2% (release, 2/22). Party ID breakdown: 42%D, 37%R, 18%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), state Sen. Mark Amodei (R), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), Wall St. banker John Chachas (R), Assemb. Chad Christensen (R), ex-state GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), '06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R) and Tea Party candidate/businessman Jon Ashjian.

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

S. Lowden 35%
D. Tarkanian 28
S. Angle 8
C. Christensen 4
M. Amodei 1
J. Chachas 0
Undec 24 

General Election Matchups

H. Reid 40%
M. Amodei 25
J. Ashjian 19
Undec 16

H. Reid 37%
S. Angle 32
J. Ashjian 16
Undec 14

H. Reid 39%
J. Ashjian 22
J. Chachas 21
Undec 17

S. Lowden 42%
H. Reid 37
J. Ashjian 9
Undec 12 

D. Tarkanian 40%
H. Reid 39
J. Ashjian 11
Undec 11 

Fav/Unfav

S. Lowden 39%/17%
D. Tarkanian 35 /17
H. Reid 35 /58
C. Christensen 8 / 5
M. Amodei 7 / 5
J. Chachas 3 / 4 

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 2/9-10 for the Progressive Change Campaign Cmte (D), Democracy for America (D) and Credo Action (D); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/22). Tested:

General Election Matchups

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
S. Lowden 53% 20% 88% 58% 60% 46%
H. Reid 39 72 5 32 36 42
Undec 8 8 7 10 4 12 

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Tarkanian 54% 21% 89% 59% 60% 48%
H. Reid 40 73 5 34 36 44
Undec 6 6 6 7 4 8

Oregon
A KATU-TV poll; conducted 2/12-14 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/16).

Wyden As Sen.

- Now 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/29
Approve 50% 53% 53% 51% 55% 56% 53% 55% 55%
Disapprove 37 40 40 40 32 35 34 37 33 

Washington
A KATU-TV/KING-TV poll; conducted 2/12-14 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/16).

Murray As Sen.

- Now 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/29
Approve 43% 55% 52% 47% 48% 47% 50% 56% 50%
Disapprove 50 39 40 45 41 43 45 35 34 

Senate 2010

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 442 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (release, 2/22). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Primary Election Matchup

-           Now 1/27 12/14 10/20 8/17
M. Rubio    54% 49%  43%   35%   31%
C. Crist    36  37   43    49    53
Other        4   3    5     4     5
Undec        7  11    9    12    11

Crist As Gov.
Fav/Unfav

-           Now     1/27    12/14   10/20   8/17
M. Rubio    67%/15% 67%/14% 64%/15% 55%/22% 53%/19%
C. Crist    54 /44  62 /37  61 /38  67 /32  75 /23

Iowa
A Des Moines Register poll; conducted 1/31-2/3 by Selzer & Co.; surveyed 805 adults; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 2/21).

Grassley As Sen.

-           Now 11/11 9/16 4/1 1/09
Approve     54% 57%   57%  66% 75%
Disapprove  28  32    30   20  12

New York
A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 2/14-19; surveyed 805 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 2/22).

Re-Elect Schumer?

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Re-elect him    55% 71% 33% 48% 51% 58%
Prefer another  36  23  57  40  43  30
Undec            9   7  10  11   6  12

Fav/Unfav

-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     12/9    11/12
C. Schumer  61%/29% 80%/16% 27%/69% 57%/40% 60%/28% 60%/30%

A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 2/14-19; surveyed 805 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 377 Dems; margin of error +/- 5.0% (release, 2/22). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), '06 TN SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D), '06 candidate Jonathan Tasini (D), '98 Comp. nominee/ex-Nassau Co. legislator/ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R), ex-Gov. George Pataki (R) and Daily News owner Mort Zuckerman (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

-              All Men Wom Wht Blk His 1/14
K. Gillibrand  42% 39% 44% 50% 30% 24% 41%
H. Ford        16  21  13  15  19  17  17
J. Tasini       4   6   2   3   4   7   5
Undec          38  34  40  45  34  27  37

General Election Matchups

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/14 12/9 11/12 10/18
G. Pataki      47% 30% 74% 55% 54% 40% 51%  43%  44%   46%
K. Gillibrand  41  57  16  32  36  45  38   46   45    41
Undec          13  13  10  13  10  15  11   12   12    13

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
K. Gillibrand  51% 69% 25% 44% 45% 55%
B. Blakeman    24  12  49  26  32  18
Undec          25  20  26  31  23  27

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
K. Gillibrand  49% 65% 24% 43% 43% 53%
M. Zuckerman   29  14  57  30  38  22
Undec          22  21  19  27  20  25

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/14
G. Pataki      48% 33% 73% 55% 56% 42% 54%
H. Ford        34  49  13  27  28  39  32
Undec          17  18  14  18  15  19  14

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
H. Ford        41% 60% 14% 32% 39% 43%
B. Blakeman    23   9  49  26  30  18
Undec          36  31  37  42  31  40

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
H. Ford        40% 59% 12% 31% 35% 43%
M. Zuckerman   26  12  56  25  35  19
Undec          34  29  33  44  30  38

Elect Gillibrand?

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/14 12/9 11/12
Elect her      30% 36% 23% 27% 28% 32% 29%  30%  33%
Prefer another 40  31  55  44  47  35  45   34  38
Undec          30  33  22  28  25  33  26   35   29

Fav/Unfav

-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/14
G. Pataki      56%/34% 53%/38% 62%/29% 58%/33% 55%/34%
K. Gillibrand  34 /28  41 /18  21 /44  36 /30  30 /32
H. Ford        25 /19  19 /19  20 /20  22 /19  21 /16
M. Zuckerman   18 /18  17 /20  16 /16  21 /17   n/a
B. Blakeman     5 /11   5 /11   6 / 9   4 /11   n/a

Senate - Iowa (2010)

Senate (2010)
A Des Moines Register poll; conducted 11/8-11 by Selzer & Co.; surveyed 800 adults; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 539 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.2% (releases, 11/14-16). Tested: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and '82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D).

General Election Matchup (LVs)
C. Grassley  57%
R. Conlin    30
Not vote      3
Undec        10

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     9/16
C. Grassley  64%/30% 64%/28%
R. Conlin    22 /16   n/a

Grassley As Sen.
-            Now 9/16 4/1 1/09
Approve      57% 57%  66% 75%
Disapprove   32  30   20  12

Senate - Iowa (2010)

Senate (2010)
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 10/12-14 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/16). Party ID breakdown: 32%D, 31%R, 37%I. Tested: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), '82 GOV nominee/atty Roxanne Conlin (D), atty/ex-state Sen. Tom Fiegen (D), ex-state Rep. Bob Krause (D) and ex-First Lady Christie Vilsack (D).

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Grassley  51% 13% 89% 51% 56% 46%
R. Conlin    39  73   6  38  33  45
Undec        10  14   5  11  11   9

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Grassley  54% 16% 90% 56% 59% 49%
T. Fiegen    31  61   5  28  28  34
Undec        15  23   5  16  13  17

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Grassley  52% 15% 88% 53% 56% 48%
B. Krause    35  67   5  33  32  38
Undec        13  18   7  14  12  14

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Grassley  51% 13% 90% 50% 57% 45%
C. Vilsack   40  75   6  39  33  47
Undec        9   12   4  11  10   8

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
C. Grassley  55%/40% 31%/66% 80%/15% 54%/39% 60%/35% 50%/45%
R. Conlin    44 /29  68 /11  19 /50  45 /27  40 /34  48 /24
C. Vilsack   41 /25  67 / 7  17 /46  40 /23  38 /29  44 /21
B. Krause    39 /31  61 /12  18 /49  38 /32  37 /35  41 /27
T. Fiegen    28 /19  47 / 8  11 /33  27 /17  25 /23  31 /15

Senate - Iowa (2010)

Senate (2010)
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 9/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/23). Tested: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and ex-state Rep. Bob Krause (D).

General Election Matchup
C. Grassley  56%
B. Krause    30
Other         7
Undec         7

Fav/Unfav
C. Grassley  68%/30%
B. Krause    33 /30

Senate - Iowa (2010)

Senate (2010)
A Des Moines Register poll; conducted 9/14-16 by Selzer & Co.; surveyed 803 adults; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 9/19).

Reelect Grassley?
-                               Now 4/1
Definitely vote for             45% 47%
Consider an alternative         24  29
Definitely vote for alternative 13   8
Would not vote                  11   7
Undec                            7   9

Grassley As Sen.
-            Now 4/1 1/09
Approve      57% 66% 75%
Disapprove   30  20  12

Fav/Unfav
C. Grassley  64%/28%