Senate 2010

Arkansas
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/26-28 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/29). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 38%D, 33%R, 29%I. Tested: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), LG Bill Halter (D), state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), Rep. John Boozman (R-03), Safe Foods Corp CEO Curtis Coleman (R), AR Tea Party org. pres. Tom Cox (R) and state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R). (Ed. note: Daily Kos has endorsed Halter and is encouraging its readers to support his campaign.)

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

-           All Men Wom Wht Blk 4/14 3/24 12/2
B. Lincoln  43% 47% 40% 46% 31% 45%  44%  42%
B. Halter   35  30  38  34  39  33   31   26
Other        7  11   4   8   1   6   n/a  n/a
Undec       15  12  18  12  29  16   25   32

General Election Matchups

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
G. Baker    47% 15% 83% 48% 52% 42% 48%  49%  41%  37%
B. Lincoln  40  74   5  35  36  44  41   41   42   44
Undec       13  11  12  17  12  14  11   10   17   19

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24
J. Boozman  52% 19% 87% 56% 58% 46% 50%  49%
B. Lincoln  42  76   7  37  37  47  43   42
Undec        6   5   6   7   5   7   7    9

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
C. Coleman  46% 13% 82% 48% 52% 40% 46%  47%  39%  37%
B. Lincoln  42  77   5  37  37  47  43   44   44   45
Undec       12  10  13  15  11  13  11    9   17   18

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
T. Cox      47% 13% 84% 50% 52% 42% 46%  47%  31%  29%
B. Lincoln  42  77   5  37  37  47  43   43   45   46
Undec       11  10  11  13  11  11  11   10   24   25

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
K. Hendren  50% 18% 84% 54% 54% 46% 49%  48%  30%  28%
B. Lincoln  40  75   6  34  37  43  42   43   46   47
Undec       10   9  10  12   9  11   9    9   24   25

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2
G. Baker    44%  9% 82% 47% 49% 39% 45%  46%  42%
B. Halter   43  79   6  37  38  48  43   44   34
Undec       13  12  12  16  13  13  12   10   24

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24
J. Boozman  47% 13% 84% 48% 52% 42% 48%  48%
B. Halter   42  78   5  38  37  47  41   40
Undec       11   9  11  14  11  11  11   12

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2
B. Halter   43% 81%  5% 37% 38% 48% 44%  45%  35%
C. Coleman  41   6  80  42  47  35  43   44   40
Undec       16  13  15  21  15  17  13   11   25

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2
B. Halter   44% 82%  5% 39% 41% 47% 44%  45%  36%
T. Cox      42   7  80  44  49  35  43   43   32
Undec       14  11  15  17  10  18  13   12   32

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2
K. Hendren  45% 10% 84% 49% 49% 41% 46%  45%  31%
B. Halter   43  78   6  38  39  47  43   44   36
Undec       12  12  10  13  12  12  11   11   33

Fav/Unfav

-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/14    3/24
B. Halter   48%/32% 73%/10% 20%/56% 47%/32% 47%/30% 46%/27%
J. Boozman  44 /32  16 /53  76 /10  44 /29  45 /31  44 /30
B. Lincoln  41 /54  64 /32  17 /75  40 /58  43 /53  42 /52
K. Hendren  38 /27  15 /47  66 / 7  37 /23  36 /28  34 /27
G. Baker    36 /30  14 /51  63 / 7  35 /26  37 /30  36 /28
C. Coleman  36 /31  16 /52  61 / 9  34 /28  35 /30  34 /29
T. Cox      34 /27  11 /46  59 / 8  35 /24  33 /25  32 /26

Fav/Unfav (Dems)

-           All     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
B. Halter   66%/14% 63%/17% 68%/12% 66%/15% 67%/10%
B. Lincoln  59 /33  63 /29  56 /36  60 /32  53 /38

Delaware
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/29; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/30). Tested: Rep. Mike Castle (R) and New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D).

General Election Matchup

-          Now 2/22 1/25
M. Castle  55% 53%  56%
C. Coons   32  32   27
Other       7   8    5
Undec       7   8   13

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     2/22    1/25    9/30
M. Castle  65%/32% 65%/30% 66%/25% 61%/34%
C. Coons   48 /38  43 /35  47 /30   n/a

Illinois
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/28; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/30). Tested: Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R-10).

General Election Matchups

-               Now 4/5 3/8 2/3 12/9 10/14 8/11
M. Kirk         46% 41% 41% 46% 39%  41%   41% 
A. Giannoulias  38  37  44  40  42   41    38
Other            5   8   5   4   3    4     4
Undec           12  13  10  10  15   13    17

Fav/Unfav

-               Now     4/5     3/8     2/3     12/9
M. Kirk         52%/31% 51%/36% 49%/33% 55%/33% 50%/32%
A. Giannoulias  42 /47  42 /44  44 /43  46 /39  48 /36

Nevada
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/26-28 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsample of 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/29). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 43%D, 40%R, 17%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), '04 state Senate nominee/'06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R) and Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian.

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-             All Men Wom
S. Lowden     38% 40% 36%
D. Tarkanian  28  29  27
S. Angle      13  11  15
Other         12  13  11
Undec          9   7  11

General Election Matchups

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
S. Angle      44% 10% 82% 43% 50% 38% 52%  4% 18%
H. Reid       41  76   6  34  36  46  34  77  67
S. Ashjian     5   1   8   7   6   4   6   0   0
Other          2   2   1   4   2   2   2   0   0
None           2   3   1   3   2   2   2   0   0
Undec          6   8   2   9   4   8   4  19  15

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
S. Lowden     45% 10% 83% 46% 51% 39% 53%  4% 21%
H. Reid       41  76   6  34  36  46  34  77  67
S. Ashjian     4   0   7   7   5   3   5   0   0
Other          2   3   1   3   2   2   2   0   0
None           2   3   1   3   2   2   2   0   0
Undec          6   9   2   6   4   8   4  19  12

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
D. Tarkanian  43%  9% 81% 42% 49% 37% 51%  4% 17%
H. Reid       41  76   6  34  36  46  35  76  67
S. Ashjian     6   1   9   9   7   5   7   0   0
Other          2   2   1   4   2   2   2   0   0
None           2   3   1   3   2   2   2   0   0
Undec          6   9   2   8   4   8   3  20  16

Fav/Unfav

-             All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/20    9/2
D. Tarkanian  44%/33% 26%/52% 65%/14% 40%/32% 48%/31% 47%/28%
S. Lowden     42 /34  17 /54  70 /13  40 /32  45 /26  43 /24
S. Angle      41 /29  23 /48  62 / 9  38 /28   n/a     n/a
H. Reid       37 /53  63 /29  11 /77  32 /58  34 /55  36 /52
S. Ashjian     7 /27   4 /37  10 /16   7 /29   n/a     n/a

New Hampshire
A WMUR-TV Granite State Poll; conducted 4/12-21 by the UNH Survey Center; surveyed 512 adults; margin of error +/- 4.3%. Subsample of 462 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.6% (release, 4/29). Party ID breakdown: 41%D, 40%R, 17%I. Tested: Ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), businessman Jim Bender (R), businessman Bill Binnie (R), '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Rep. Paul Hodes (D-02).

General Election Matchups (LVs)

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3 10/2 7/1
K. Ayotte      47% 14% 79% 44% 56% 38% 41% 40%  39%
P. Hodes       32  65   5  23  29  35  33  33   35
Other           0   0   0   1   0   0   1   2    2
Undec          21  21  16  32  15  26  25  25   24

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
P. Hodes       37% 72%  7% 26% 36% 38% 36%
J. Bender      34   3  67  26  43  25  27
Other           0   0   0   0   0   0   2
Undec          29  24  26  48  21  37  35

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
B. Binnie      38%  4% 72% 31% 48% 28% 30%
P. Hodes       36  72   7  24  34  39  34
Other           0   0   0   1   0   0   2
Undec          26  24  22  43  18  33  33

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3 10/2
O. Lamontagne  37%  6% 71% 28% 48% 28% 29% 28%
P. Hodes       36  72   5  24  33  39  38  37
Other           0   0   0   1   0   1   2   2
Undec          26  22  23  47  19  33  30  33

Firmness Of Choice (LVs)

-                          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3 10/2
Definitely decided         14% 20% 12%  6% 18% 11% 10%  6%
Leaning toward someone     14  12  18   7  17  11  11   8
Still trying to decide     72  68  70  86  65  78  78  86

Fav/Unfav

-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/3     10/2
K. Ayotte      38%/13% 26%/24% 52%/ 4% 38%/ 8% 38%/12% 37%/ 8%
P. Hodes       30 /31  50 / 8  15 /56  20 /29  32 /27  30 /26
O. Lamontagne  10 /12   3 /19  17 / 6  11 / 9  12 / 9  11 / 7
B. Binnie      22 /11   6 /17  36 / 5  26 / 8  10 / 4   n/a
J. Bender       5 / 5   3 / 8   7 / 2   5 / 3   6 / 2   n/a

Ohio
A Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 4/27-29; surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/30). Tested: Sec/State Jennifer Brunner and LG Lee Fisher.

Primary Election Matchup

-             All Men Wom
L. Fisher     55% 57% 52%
J. Brunner    27  25  29
Undec         18  17  19

Fav/Unfav

-             All     Men     Wom
B. Obama      86%/12% 86%/13% 85%/11%
L. Fisher     65 /12  66 /12  63 /11
G. Voinovich  51 /36  54 /35  48 /36
J. Brunner    46 /13  46 /13  46 /13
J. Kasich     20 /29  24 /37  16 /22
R. Portman    15 /24  15 /32  14 /18

Which Candidate Has A Better Chance At Beating Portman In The General Election?

-             All Men Wom
L. Fisher     55% 60% 51%
J. Brunner    15  14  16
Undec         30  25  33

Strickland Has Endorsed Fisher In The Primary. Does This Make You More/Less Likely To Support Fisher?

-             All Men Wom
More likely   50% 52% 47%
Less likely   10   9  10
No diff       41  38  42

Which Candidate Has Run A More Negative Campaign?

-             All Men Wom
J. Brunner    16% 17% 14%
L. Fisher     10  11  10
Undec         71  68  74

Senate 2010

Delaware
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/25). Tested: Rep. Mike Castle (R), '06 candidate/'08 nominee Christine O'Donnell (R) and New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D).

General Election Matchups

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 10/14
M. Castle     53% 24% 87% 61% 58% 48% 51%
C. Coons      35  61   6  27  32  38  39
Undec         12  15   7  12  10  14  10

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Coons      47% 75% 12% 43% 43% 51%
C. O'Donnell  31   8  65  29  34  28
Undec         22  17  23  28  23  21

Fav/Unfav

-             All     Dem     GOP     Ind     10/14
M. Castle     65%/32% 43%/53% 87%/10% 79%/19% 64%/30%
C. Coons      52 /25  74 /10  23 /47  50 /22   n/a
C. O'Donnell  33 /39  16 /57  59 /13  31 /40   n/a

Indiana
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/11). Party ID breakdown: 41%R, 36%D, 23%I. Tested: Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-08), Rep. Baron Hill (D-09) and architect Jim Schellinger (D).

General Election Matchups

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Coats        37%  7% 69% 28% 43% 31%
B. Ellsworth    36  68   9  35  31  41
Undec           27  25  22  37  26  28

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Coats        37%  6% 70% 27% 44% 30%
B. Hill         37  70   9  37  32  42
Undec           26  24  21  36  24  28

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Coats        39%  6% 74% 28% 47% 31%
J. Schellinger  34  68   6  31  30  38
Undec           27  26  20  41  23  31

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Hostettler   40%  8% 72% 32% 46% 34%
B. Ellsworth    34  66   8  32  30  38
Undec           26  26  20  36  24  28

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Hostettler   42%  7% 77% 35% 47% 37%
B. Hill         36  69   9  34  32  40
Undec           22  24  14  31  21  23

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Hostettler   44%  8% 80% 37% 48% 40%
J. Schellinger  33  66   6  30  30  36
Undec           23  26  14  33  22  24

Fav/Unfav

-               All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/10
B. Hill         45%/31% 64%/13% 30%/46% 42%/32%  n/a
J. Hostettler   43 /31  13 /61  70 / 9  41 /25  40%/33%
B. Ellsworth    41 /24  60 /10  25 /38  39 /23   n/a
D. Coats        40 /36   8 /67  70 /11  37 /24  38 /34
J. Schellinger  39 /32  58 /15  23 /47  37 /31   n/a

Maryland
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/26).

General Election Matchup

B. Mikulski    54%
Generic GOPer  36
Other           2
Undec           8

Fav/Unfav

B. Mikulski    63%/31%

Nevada
A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research; surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversample of 300 GOP primary regular voters; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 2/28). Party ID breakdown: 43%D, 37%R, 20%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), Wall St. banker John Chachas (R), ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), Bill Parson (R) and '04 state Senate nominee/'06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-             Now 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
S. Lowden     47% 26% 25%  23%  14%
D. Tarkanian  29  28  24   21   33
S. Angle       8  13  13    9    5
J. Chachas     1  --   1   --   --
B. Parson     --  --   1    1   n/a
M. Amodei     n/a  1   1   --   n/a
C. Kozak      n/a --  --   --    1 
R. Titus      n/a --   1    1   n/a
M. Wiley      n/a --   1    1   n/a
Undec         15  32  33   44   47

General Election Matchups

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7
S. Angle      44% 10% 83% 44% 52% 36% 45%
H. Reid       42  74   7  38  33  51  40
Undec         14  16  10  18  15  13  15

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
S. Lowden     52% 15% 91% 54% 57% 47% 50% 51%  49%  45%
H. Reid       39  75   4  31  32  46  40  41   39   40
Undec          9  10   5  15  11   7  10   8   12   15

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
D. Tarkanian  51% 17% 91% 52% 56% 46% 49% 48%  48%  49%
H. Reid       40  73   3  37  35  45  41  42   43   38
Undec          9  10   6  11   9   9  10  10   11   13

-                     All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
H. Reid               36% 68%  2% 26% 29% 43%
Generic GOPer         32  10  64  22  40  24
Generic Tea Party     18  12  22  22  19  17
Undec                 14  10  12  30  12  16

Fav/Unfav

-             Now     1/7     12/2    10/8    8/18    6/19
S. Lowden     36%/17% 32%/17% 33%/13% 31%/15%  n/a     n/a
H. Reid       33 /51  33 /52  38 /49  38 /50  37%/50% 34%/46%
D. Tarkanian  30 /17  33 /16  32 /12  30 /11   n/a     n/a
S. Angle      19 / 9  21 /11   n/a     n/a     n/a     n/a

Did Obama's Visit To NV Last Week Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Reid?

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely    7% 12% --   7%  6%  8%
Less likely   17   3  33  19  21  13
No effect     75  83  67  74  72  78

Senate 2010

Delaware
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/25). Tested: Rep. Mike Castle (R) and New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D).

General Election Matchup

-          Now 1/25
M. Castle  53% 56%
C. Coons   32  27
Other       8   5
Undec       8  13

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     1/25    9/30
M. Castle  65%/30% 66%/25% 61%/34%
C. Coons   43 /35  47 /30   n/a

Georgia
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/24).

General Election Matchup

J. Isakson   49%
Generic Dem  36
Other         4
Undec        12

South Carolina
A Winthrop Univ. poll; conducted 2/6-21; surveyed 837 adults; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 2/25).

DeMint As Sen.

-           All Dem GOP Ind
Approve     43% 26% 61% 48%
Disapprove  28  42  14  30

Senate - Delaware (2010)

Senate (2010)
A Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 11/10-15; surveyed 850 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 11/16). Party ID breakdown: 49%D, 28%R, 23%I. Tested: AG Beau Biden (D) and Rep. Mike Castle (R).

General Election Matchup
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/30
B. Biden   45% 65% 17% 37% 40% 49% 34%
M. Castle  40  21  72  42  44  37  55
Other       6   4   9   9   7   6   3
Undec       8  10   3  12   8   8   8

Senate - Delaware (2010)

Senate (2010)
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 10/12-14 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/15). Party ID breakdown: 47%D, 31%R, 22%I. Tested: Sen. Ted Kaufman (D), AG Beau Biden (D), '08 GOV candidate/ex-LG John Carney (D), Rep. Mike Castle (R) and New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D).

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
M. Castle   51% 24% 86% 58% 57% 45%
T. Kaufman  37  63   5  28  33  41
Undec       12  13   9  14  10  14

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
M. Castle   46% 21% 82% 48% 52% 40%
B. Biden    45  72   9  40  40  50
Undec        9   7   9  12   8  10

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
M. Castle   49% 23% 85% 53% 54% 44%
J. Carney   41  68   6  33  37  45
Undec       10   9   9  14   9  11

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
M. Castle   51% 25% 86% 57% 56% 46%
C. Coons    39  65   5  31  35  43
Undec       10  10   9  12   9  11

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
B. Biden    65%/29% 86%/ 9% 30%/66% 71%/19% 61%/35% 69%/23%
M. Castle   64 /30  45 /49  84 /11  77 /16  69 /28  59 /32
J. Carney   41 /19  62 / 6  10 /46  41 /10  37 /23  45 /15
T. Kaufman  36 /26  57 / 9   6 /58  33 /17  33 /30  39 /22
C. Coons    34 / 8  54 / 4   7 /16  29 / 6  32 / 8  36 / 8

Senate - Delaware (2010)

Senate (2010)
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 9/30; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/1). Tested: AG Beau Biden (D), Rep. Mike Castle (R) and '08 nominee Christine O'Donnell (R).

General Election Matchups
M. Castle     47%             B. Biden      49%
B. Biden      42              C. O'Donnell  40
Other          5              Other          3
Undec          6              Undec          8

Fav/Unfav
M. Castle     61%/34%
B. Biden      60 /32
C. O'Donnell  46 /36