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Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Gallup

Environment/Energy
Conducted 3/4-7; surveyed 1,014 adults; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 4/6).

With Which One Of These Statements About The Environment And Energy Production Do You Most Agree -- Protection Of The Environment Should Be Given Priority, Even At The Risk Of Limiting The Amount Of Energy Supplies Such As Oil, Gas And Coal Which The U.S. Produces, Or Development Of U.S. Energy Supplies Such As Oil, Gas Or Coal Should Be Given Priority, Even If The Environment Suffers To Some Extent?
-                               Now 3/09 3/08 3/07 3/06 3/05
Development of energy supplies 50% 46% 41% 34% 42% 39%
Environment 43 47 50 58 49 52
Both/equally 2 3 4 3 4 4
Neither/other 2 1 2 2 2 2

How Serious Would You Say The Energy Situation Is In The U.S.?
-                   Now 3/09 3/08 3/07 3/06 3/05 3/04 3/03
Very serious 33% 42% 46% 37% 41% 31% 29% 28%
Fairly serious 54 51 49 55 51 56 57 59
Not at all serious 11 5 5 7 7 10 12 11

Which Approach To Solving The Nation's Energy Problems Do You Think The U.S. Should Follow Right Now -- Emphasize Production Of More Oil, Gas And Coal Supplies, Or Emphasize More Conservation By Consumers Of Existing Energy Supplies?
-                   Now 3/08 3/07 3/06 3/05 3/04 3/03 3/02
More conservation 52% 61% 64% 55% 61% 59% 60% 60%
More production 36 29 26 35 28 31 29 30
Both/equally 6 5 5 6 7 6 7 6
Neither/other 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 2

Do You Think That The U.S. Is Likely To Face A Critical Energy Shortage During The Next Five Years?
-                   Now 3/08 2/07 3/06 3/05 3/04 3/03 3/02
Yes 45% 62% 53% 56% 52% 49% 56% 52%
No 51 34 44 39 45 47 40 49
Already facing one -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 1 1

Monday, April 5, 2010

California
A Los Angeles Times/USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences poll; conducted 3/23-30 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)/American Viewpoint (R); surveyed 1,515 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsample of 511 GOPers and unaffiliated voters who say they might vote in the GOP primary; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 4/3). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 45%D, 31%R, 20% decline-to-state, 4% other. Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-           All Men Wom
M. Whitman 60% 60% 61%
S. Poizner 20 23 17
Other 3 3 3
Undec 16 13 19

General Election Matchups (Split Samples)
-           All Dem GOP DTS Oth Men Wom
M. Whitman 44% 27% 70% 40% 61% 45% 44%
J. Brown 41 58 18 39 37 44 38
Other 2 2 2 1 0 1 3
Undec 13 13 11 20 1 11 15

-           All Dem GOP DTS Oth Men Wom
J. Brown 53% 72% 29% 47% 66% 59% 48%
S. Poizner 22 6 50 17 16 24 21
Other 5 5 5 6 8 5 6
Undec 19 17 17 30 11 13 25

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Men     Wom     11/2
J. Brown 41%/28% 43%/32% 39%/25% 44%/27%
M. Whitman 30 /23 31 /26 30 /21 17 /14
S. Poizner 15 /23 15 /29 15 /19 11 / 7

Is It More Important To You That A GOV Candidate Has A Background Working In Business, Or Is It More Important To You That A GOV Candidate Has A Background In Gov't?
-           All Dem GOP DTS Oth Men Wom 11/2
Business 40% 26% 59% 41% 50% 46% 35% 41%
Gov't 35 48 18 33 27 32 38 41
Both 15 14 17 16 12 14 16 9
Neither 6 5 2 3 4 3 4 6

How Important A Factor Is It That Someone Is A "True Conservative" When Considering Who You Will Support For The GOP Nod For SEN Or GOV? (GOPers)?
-                       All Men Wom
Extremely important 20% 20% 20%
Very important 26 24 28
Somewhat important 31 30 43
Not at all important 20 21 19

When Considering Whom To Support For The GOP Nod For SEN Or GOV, Would You Prefer A Strong Conservative Candidate Who Can Motivate GOPers, Or Do You Prefer A More Centrist Candidate Who Has Greater Appeal To Indies? (GOPers)
-               All Men Wom
Centrist 46% 52% 40%
Conservative 42 38 45
Both 6 5 6

Iowa
A Magellan Data And Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 3/30; surveyed 1,353 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.7% (release, 4/1). Party ID breakdown: 39%D, 36%R, 25%I. Tested: Gov. Chet Culver (D), ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R), state Rep. Rod Roberts (R) and '02 candidate/'06 LG nominee Bob Vander Plaats (R).

General Election Matchups
-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
T. Branstad 50% 19% 79% 55% 54% 46%
C. Culver 34 69 7 21 33 36
Other 8 5 9 10 7 9
Undec 8 8 5 13 6 9

-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Culver 38% 73% 8% 28% 37% 40%
R. Roberts 32 9 58 29 37 27
Other 12 7 15 17 11 14
Undec 18 11 19 26 15 20

-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Vander Plaats 40% 11% 74% 36% 45% 35%
C. Culver 39 74 8 29 38 39
Other 9 6 9 12 7 10
Undec 13 10 10 23 10 16

Culver As Gov.
-             All Dem GOP Ind
Approve 30% 57% 9% 19%
Disapprove 56 28 81 63

Fav/Unfav
T. Branstad       48%/36%
C. Culver 33 /58
B. Vander Plaats 26 /31
R. Roberts 12 /22

Senate 2010

California
A Los Angeles Times/USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences poll; conducted 3/23-30 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)/American Viewpoint (R); surveyed 1,515 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsample of 511 GOPers and unaffiliated voters who say they might vote in the GOP primary; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 4/3). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 45%D, 31%R, 20% decline-to-state, 4% other. Tested: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Asseb. Chuck DeVore (R) and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom
T. Campbell 29% 32% 25%
C. Fiorina 25 28 21
C. DeVore 9 9 9
Other 4 2 6
Undec 33 28 39

General Election Matchup
-                All Dem GOP DTS Oth Men Wom
B. Boxer 48% 71% 13% 50% 47% 45% 50%
Generic GOPer 34 12 72 26 32 39 30
Other 6 6 7 5 8 7 6
Undec 12 11 9 18 14 10 13

Boxer As Sen.
-            All Dem GOP DTS Oth Men Wom 11/2
Approve 40% 61% 12% 38% 42% 38% 43% 43%
Disapprove 38 18 71 31 39 43 33 36

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Men     Wom     11/2
B. Boxer 46%/37% 43%/42% 48%/33% 49%/36%
T. Campbell 18 /12 21 /15 15 / 9 17 / 8
C. Fiorina 11 /16 14 /20 9 /13 9 /12
C. DeVore 8 / 6 9 / 7 6 / 5 6 / 4

As You May Know, Obama Recently Signed Into Law Legislation To Reform Health Care. Though The Senate Is Still Debating This Bill And May Make Some Adjustments This Week, If Your Rep. Or Sen. Supported This Bill To Change The Health Care System Would That Make You More/Less Likely To Support Your Rep/ Or Sen. In Nov., Or Would It Not Make Much Difference In Your Vote?
-               All Dem GOP DTS Oth Men Wom
More likely 46% 61% 23% 48% 50% 46% 47%
Less likely 29 15 55 23 22 32 27
No difference 19 18 17 25 19 19 19

How Important A Factor Is It That Someone Is A "True Conservative" When Considering Who You Will Support For The GOP Nod For SEN Or GOV? (GOPers)
-                        All Men Wom
Extremely important 20% 20% 20%
Very important 26 24 28
Somewhat important 31 30 43
Not at all important 20 21 19

When Considering Whom To Support For The GOP Nod For SEN Or GOV, Would You Prefer A Strong Conservative Candidate Who Can Motivate GOPers, Or Do You Prefer A More Centrist Candidate Who Has Greater Appeal To Indies? (GOPers)
-                All Men Wom
Centrist 46% 52% 40%
Conservative 42 38 45
Both 6 5 6

Iowa
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 2/18-20 for the Progressive Change Campaign Cmte (D)/Democracy for America (D)/Credo Action (D); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/5). Party ID breakdown: 33%D, 29%R, 38%I.

Re-Elect Grassley?
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Re-elect him 42% 12% 81% 39% 48% 36%
Someone new 31 62 8 22 27 35
Undec 27 26 11 39 25 29

Ohio
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/30; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/2). Tested: Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D), LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-OMB Dir./ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 3/4 2/6 1/12 12/7 9/23
R. Portman 45% 43% 42% 43% 40% 40%
J. Brunner 38 37 38 40 33 38
Other 4 6 5 5 7 5
Undec 13 15 15 13 20 18

-           Now 3/4 2/6 1/12 12/7 9/23
R. Portman 43% 44% 43% 44% 38% 41%
L. Fisher 38 39 39 37 36 40
Other 4 5 5 4 8 6
Undec 14 12 13 14 18 14

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/4     2/6     1/12    12/7    9/23
R. Portman 45%/26% 45%/27% 45%/24% 49%/25% 48%/21% 45%/23%
J. Brunner 44 /41 39 /38 43 /32 37 /39 34 /36 37 /36
L. Fisher 39 /38 41 /37 38 /39 41 /39 36 /35 42 /34

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Governor 2010

Alabama
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 3/27-29; surveyed 1,270 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 3/31). Party ID breakdown: 43%R, 36%D, 21%I. Tested: Rep. Artur Davis (D-07), Ag. Commis. Ron Sparks (D), AL Commun. College Chancellor/ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R), Treas. Kay Ivey (R), '02 candidate/businessman Tim James (R) and '06 candidate/ex-AL Chief Justice Roy Moore (R).
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 6/5
B. Byrne 48% 11% 84% 41% 52% 45% 62% 10% 41% 39%
A. Davis 32 67 5 25 33 31 21 64 31 35
Undec 20 23 11 34 15 24 18 26 28 26

-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 6/5
K. Ivey 44% 14% 70% 41% 45% 43% 54% 12% 41% 31%
A. Davis 33 65 10 28 36 31 23 67 28 39
Undec 23 21 20 31 19 26 23 21 31 31

-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 6/5
T. James 42% 9% 73% 35% 45% 40% 54% 9% 31% 35%
A. Davis 33 65 7 30 35 31 22 66 38 37
Undec 25 25 20 35 20 29 24 26 31 28

-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 6/5
R. Moore 43% 12% 72% 39% 46% 42% 54% 12% 36% 38%
A. Davis 37 70 12 32 40 35 28 67 28 41
Undec 19 18 16 29 15 23 18 21 36 21

-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 6/5
B. Byrne 43% 7% 78% 34% 47% 40% 56% 7% 31% 41%
R. Sparks 30 60 6 28 34 27 21 57 36 27
Undec 26 32 16 38 19 32 22 37 33 33

-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 6/5
K. Ivey 39% 10% 67% 32% 41% 38% 49% 9% 36% 29%
R. Sparks 33 62 9 32 36 30 23 60 36 33
Undec 28 28 24 35 23 32 27 31 28 39

-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 6/5
T. James 38% 5% 71% 28% 40% 38% 50% 6% 23% 32%
R. Sparks 33 62 8 33 37 30 25 57 38 32
Undec 29 33 20 39 24 33 25 38 38 37

-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 6/5
R. Moore 42% 9% 72% 37% 42% 41% 53% 10% 28% 38%
R. Sparks 37 67 12 38 42 33 29 61 38 36
Undec 21 24 17 25 16 25 18 29 33 25

Fav/Unfav
-          All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
R. Moore 33%/34% 17%/42% 47%/25% 32%/38% 35%/36% 31%/33%
R. Sparks 20 /20 26 /17 14 /23 21 /20 26 /24 14 /18
A. Davis 20 /35 30 /33 13 /40 19 /30 24 /38 18 /33
K. Ivey 19 /26 19 /26 19 /27 19 /24 17 /29 20 /23
B. Byrne 18 /18 5 /32 30 / 8 14 /16 20 /21 17 /16
T. James 14 /24 10 /27 20 /21 10 /27 18 /29 11 /21

Arkansas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/30; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/1).

Beebe As Gov.
-           Now 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28
Approve 74% 75% 73% 68% 67% 69%
Disapprove 25 22 24 29 28 30

Idaho
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/31). Tested: Gov. Butch Otter (R) and activist/ex-Harvard prof. Keith Allred (D).

General Election Matchup
B. Otter    60%
K. Allred 28
Other 3
Undec 9

Otter As Gov.
Approve     60%
Disapprove 37

Fav/Unfav
B. Otter    62%/35%
K. Allred 34 /34

Maryland
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 3/29-30 for the MD Dem Party; surveyed 409 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 4/1).

Primary Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom
B. Ehrlich 59% 66% 53%
Another GOPer 31 26 35
Undec 10 7 12

Ohio
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/30; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/1). Tested: Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup
-              Now 3/4 2/6 1/12 12/7 9/23
J. Kasich 46% 49% 47% 47% 48% 46%
T. Strickland 45 38 41 40 39 45
Other 2 6 5 4 3 3
Undec 7 7 8 8 11 7

Strickland As Gov.
-              Now 3/4 2/6 1/12 12/7 9/23
Approve 47% 43% 46% 43% 48% 47%
Disapprove 52 53 53 54 50 50

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     3/4     2/6     12/7    9/23
J. Kasich 46%/29% 48%/29% 47%/30% 45%/24% 47%/25%
T. Strickland 46 /48 46 /48 44 /51 46 /46 48 /46

Senate 2010

Arkansas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/30; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/1). Tested: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), LG Bill Halter (D), state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), Rep. John Boozman (R-03), Safe Foods Corp. CEO Curtis Coleman (R), state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R) and '04 nominee/'06 LG nominee/ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28               
G. Baker 51% 45% 52% 51% 47% 47%
B. Lincoln 36 40 33 39 41 39
Other 6 6 6 3 6 5
Undec 7 8 8 7 7 8

-           Now 3/1 2/1
J. Boozman 51% 48% 54%
B. Lincoln 36 39 35
Other 6 6 4
Undec 7 7 7

-           Now 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28
C. Coleman 48% 43% 50% 48% 44% 43%
B. Lincoln 36 41 34 38 40 41
Other 7 7 7 4 7 5
Undec 8 10 9 9 9 11

-           Now 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28
K. Hendren 51% 43% 51% 47% 46% 44%
B. Lincoln 35 38 35 39 39 41
Other 5 7 7 4 6 5
Undec 8 12 7 10 9 10

-           Now 3/1
J. Holt 51% 45%
B. Lincoln 35 38
Other 7 6
Undec 7 10

-           Now 3/1
G. Baker 44% 44%
B. Halter 36 37
Other 7 5
Undec 12 13

-           Now 3/1
J. Boozman 48% 52%
B. Halter 34 33
Other 8 6
Undec 11 9

-           Now 3/1
C. Coleman 40% 38%
B. Halter 37 35
Other 10 9
Undec 13 18

-           Now 3/1
K. Hendren 42% 42%
B. Halter 34 35
Other 10 7
Undec 13 15

-           Now 3/1
J. Holt 43% 42%
B. Halter 34 38
Other 9 8
Undec 14 12

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/1     2/1     1/5     12/1    9/28
J. Boozman 47%/25% 51%/27% 51%/24% n/a n/a n/a
B. Halter 47 /40 48 /34 n/a n/a n/a n/a
J. Holt 46 /24 44 /25 n/a n/a n/a n/a
K. Hendren 38 /21 36 /23 35 /19 37%/20% 41%/19% 38%/22%
G. Baker 37 /25 38 /23 40 /22 42 /20 40 /19 39 /27
B. Lincoln 37 /61 41 /52 36 /59 38 /56 43 /52 45 /52

Idaho
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/31).

General Election Matchup
M. Crapo     60%
Generic Dem 28
Other 3
Undec 9

Fav/Unfav
M. Crapo     63%/28%
 
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