Polling Update: Governor 2009 - VA; Senate 2010 - AL, FL; Governor 2010 - FL

Virginia Governor 2009

A WDBJ-TV/WJLA-TV poll; conducted 6/5-7 by Survey USA (IVR); surveyed 1,685 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.4%. Subsample of 535 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.2 (release, 6/8). Party ID Breakdown: 36%D, 34%R, 27%I. Tested: ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe (D), state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D), ex-Del. Brian Moran (D) and ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-             All Men Wom Wht Blk 6/2 5/19 4/27
C. Deeds      42% 44% 40% 47% 32% 29% 26%  22%
T. McAuliffe  30  30  30  28  37  35  37   38
B. Moran      21  23  20  19  21  26  22   22
Other/undec    7   3  10   6  11  11  14   18

General Election Matchups
-             All Men Wom GOP Dem Ind Wht Blk 6/2 5/19 4/27
B. McDonnell  47% 57% 37% 88% 11% 44% 53% 21% 44% 46%  44%
C. Deeds      43  35  50   7  80  42  37  67  43 40   39
Undec         11   8  13   5  10  14  10  12  13 15   17

-             All Men Wom GOP Dem Ind Wht Blk 6/2 5/19 4/27
B. McDonnell  48% 58% 39% 89% 12% 48% 55% 22% 47% 46%  46%
T. McAuliffe  41  33  48   8  78  38  35  64  40 40   39
Undec         11   9  12   3  11  14  10  14  12 13   15

-             All Men Wom GOP Dem Ind Wht Blk 6/2 5/19 4/27
B. McDonnell  49% 59% 40% 89% 14% 48% 56% 20% 48% 47%  46%
B. Moran      38  31  43   6  71  37  32  61  37 37   34
Undec         13  10  17   5  15  15  13  18  15 16   19

Senate 2010

Alabama

A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 6/2-5; surveyed 667 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 6/9). Party ID Breakdown: 41%R, 38%D, 21%I.

Shelby As Sen.
-           All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
Approve     48% 53% 44% 22% 72% 50% 60% 22%
Disapprove  35  36  34  59  16  30  26  56

Sessions As Sen.
-           All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
Approve     50% 51% 49% 25% 74% 50% 61% 24%
Disapprove  33  38  30  58  13  31  24  54

Florida

A FL Chamber of Commerce poll; conducted 5/27-29 by Public Opinion Strategies (R); surveyed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 6/8).

Crist As Gov.
Approve         70%
Disapprove      24

Direction Of FL
Right dir.      36%
Wrong dir.      53

Florida Governor 2010

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/2-7; surveyed 1,245 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 6/9). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D).

General Election Matchup
-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
A. Sink     38%  5% 72% 27% 37% 39%
B. McCollum 34  72  11  32  39  30
Other        1   1   1   1   1   1
Not vote     2   1   1   4   3   1
Undec       25  21  16  37  21  29

Fav/Unfav
-             All     GOP     Dem     Ind      1/19   11/16
B. McCollum 40%/13% 59%/ 4% 27%/21% 39%/11%  40%/14%   na
A. Sink     25 / 7  16 /14  35 / 3  24 / 6   24 / 5  27%/13%

McCollum As AG
-          All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 4/13 2/16 1/19 11/16 6/08
Approve    51% 64% 42% 51% 54% 48% 48%   48%  51%  51%   52%
Disapprove 16   7  22  16  18  14  18    17   16   17    20

Sink As CFO
-          All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 4/13 2/16 1/19 11/16 6/08
Approve    39% 29% 49% 38% 41% 38%  33%  32%  39%  35%   33%
Disapprove 17  25  11  19  19  16   22   22   18   21    25

The Way Things Are Going In FL Today
-             All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 4/13 2/16 1/19 11/16
Satisfied     51% 62% 45% 45% 52% 50%  46%  43%  46%  47%
Dissatisfied  48  35  53  54  46  49   53   55   54   53

FL Has Had GOP Govs. Since '98; Do You Think GOP Rule Has Been Good/Bad For FL?
-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Good        50% 84% 25% 52% 52% 47%
Bad         37   4  61  35  35  38

If Sink Is Elected Gov., She Would Be FL's First Woman Gov.; Does This Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Her?
-               All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
More likely     11%  5% 22%  5%  9% 13%
Less likely      3   7   2   2   4   3
No difference   81  85  70  90  84  78

Polling Update: Governor 2009 - VA; Governor 2010 - FL

Virginia Governor 2009

A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 6/6-7; surveyed 1,082 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 6/7). Tested: state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D), ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe (D) and ex-Del. Brian Moran (D).

Primary Election Matchup
-            All Men Wom Wht Blk 5/31 5/21  5/3 3/29 3/1 2/1
C. Deeds     40% 40% 40% 46% 31%  27%  20%  14% 15%  14% 11%
T. McAuliffe 26  27  25  23  32   24   29   30  18   21  18
B. Moran     24  23  25  24  23   22   20   20  22   19  18
Undec        10  10  11   7  15   26   31   36  45   46  53

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     5/31    5/21    5/3     3/29     3/1
C. Deeds     57%/14% 48%/13% 42%/16% 33%/11% 31%/12% 26%/10%
B. Moran     47 /23  44 /18  38 /20  39 /11  34 /15  30 /14
T. McAuliffe 40 /40  39 /35  37 /36  42 /25  32 /29  31 /24

Florida Governor 2010

A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 5/28 for AG Bill McCollum (R); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsample of 215 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 6.7% (release, 6/5). Party ID Breakdown: 45%D, 38%R, 18%I. Tested: McCollum, ex-state Sen. Dan Webster (R), state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
B. McCollum 63%
D. Webster   3
P. Dockery   3
Undec       32

General Election Matchup
-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom North Central  South
B. McCollum 41% 72% 19% 29% 44% 37%  41%    43%     38%
A. Sink     33   8  55  32  30  36   28     35      33
Undec       26  21  26  39  26  27   31     22      29

Fav/Unfav
-             All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men    Wom
B. McCollum 41%/13% 60%/ 8% 29%/15% 28%/20% 42%/14% 39%/12%
A. Sink     23 /12  14 /17  31 / 7  23 /12  25 /15 22 / 9

McCollum As AG
Approve     52%
Disapprove  11

Sink As CFO
Approve     38%
Disapprove  13

Polling Update: Governor 2009 - VA; Senate 2010 - CA, FL; Governor 2010 - CA, FL, TX

Governor 2009
Virginia

A Daily Kos poll; conducted 6/1-3 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/4). Party ID Breakdown: 39%D, 32%R, 29%I. Tested: ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R), ex-Del. Brian Moran (D), ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe (D) and state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

-            All Men Wom Wht Blk His NoVA Other 5/20 4/8

C. Deeds      30% 34% 27% 35% 19% 35% 22%  34%   13%  16%

B. Moran      27  26  28  25  32  27  42   20    22   24

T. McAuliffe  26  25  27  25  29  24  28   25    36   19

Undec         17  15  18  15  20  14   8   21    29   41


General Election Matchups

-            All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk His 5/20 4/8

B. McDonnell  43% 47% 39% 15% 78% 43% 55%  7% 21% 42%  37%

B. Moran      35  32  38  63   6  30  28  59  45  35   36

Undec         22  21  23  22  16  27  17  34  34  23   27


-            All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk His 5/20 4/8

B. McDonnell  46% 50% 42% 17% 82% 47% 59%  6% 21% 44%  40%

T. McAuliffe  33  31  35  60   4  28  26  56  43  34   33

Undec         21  19  23  23  14  25  15  38  36  22   27


-            All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk His 5/20 4/8

B. McDonnell  46% 50% 42% 16% 82% 48% 59%  6% 20% 45%  38%

C. Deeds      34  32  36  59   6  31  27  56  45  32   31

Undec         20  18  22  25  12  21  14  38  35  23   31


Fav/Unfav

-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     5/20    4/8

B. McDonnell 56%/34% 37%/54% 79%/11% 54%/33% 53%/33% 48%/41%

C. Deeds     41 /39  62 /20  15 /65  38 /40  35 /36  34 /30

B. Moran     37 /38  60 /16  13 /62  33 /41  35 /36  36 /33

T. McAuliffe 37 /43  62 /21  11 /68  32 /45  37 /40  35 /36

Senate 2010

California

A Capitol Weekly poll; conducted 5/25-29 by Probolsky Research LLC; surveyed 751 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 2/6).

Would You Say Boxer Deserves To Be Reelected,
Or Is It Time To Give Someone Else A Chance?
Reelect Boxer           31%
Time for someone else   52
Undec                   16

Florida

A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 5/29-31; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8%. Subsample of 468 GOPers; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 6/5). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R), ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-           Now 2/8

C. Crist    59% 54%

M. Rubio    22   4

Other       na  33

Undec       19   9


General Election Matchups

-           Now 2/8

C. Crist    59% 60%

K. Meek     29  26

Undec       12  14

-           Now 2/8

M. Rubio    31% 26%

K. Meek     30  24

Undec       39  50


Crist As Gov.

-          Now 2/8 11/2 10/22 10/8 9/22 8/24 6/29 1/08 12/07

Approve    62% 62% 58%  58%   57%  56%  59%  58%  60%  60%

Disapprove 34  25  32   33    35   32   30   34   33   30


Nelson As Sen.

-          Now 2/8 11/2 10/22 10/8 9/22 8/24 6/29 1/08 12/07

Approve    55% 54% 55%  54%   55%  53%  55%  54%  54%  52%

Disapprove 33  35  37   35    37   37   35   35   39   33


Martinez As Sen.

-          Now 2/8 11/2 10/22 10/8 9/22 8/24 6/29 1/08 12/07

Approve    45% 45% 47%  47%   47%  48%  48%  47%  44%  46%

Disapprove 40  40  41   40    41   40   40   41   37   40

Governor 2010

California

A Capitol Weekly poll; conducted 5/25-29 by Probolsky Research LLC; surveyed 751 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.6%. Subsamples of 294 GOPers and 371 Dems; margins of error +/- 5.7% and +/- 5.1%, respectively (release, 2/6). Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), S.F. Mayor Gavin Newsom (D), L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), LG John Garamendi (D), Supt. of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell (D), '06 candidate/ex-Cont. Steve Westly (D), '00 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), ex-eBay exec. Meg Whitman (R), Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and Ventura Co. Supervisor Peter Foy (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

-              Now 1/25

J. Brown        24% 14

G. Newsom       16   9

A. Villaraigosa 15   9

J. Garamendi     7   4

J. O'Connell     5   3

S. Westly        3   1

Other           na  36

Undec           28  22



Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-              Now 1/25

T. Campbell     13% 15%

M. Whitman      10  14

S. Poizner       8   4

P. Foy           1   1

Undec           65  62


Direction Of CA

-              Now 1/25

Right dir.      19% 25%

Wrong dir.      69  61

Florida

A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 5/29-31; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8%. Subsample of 468 GOPers; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 6/5). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R), state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

B. McCollum     44%

P. Dockery      28

Undec           28

General Election Matchups

B. McCollum     41%

A. Sink         39

Undec           20



A. Sink         40%

P. Dockery      34

Undec           26

Texas

A TX Credit Union poll; conducted 4/23 and 4/25-26 by Public Opinion Strategies (R)/Hamilton Campaigns (D); surveyed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 6/3).

Perry As Gov.

-          All GOP

Approve    52% 67%

Disapprove 40  25


Hutchison As Sen.

-           All GOP

Approve     66% 74%

Disapprove  18  12


Direction Of TX

Right dir.      55%

Wrong dir.      31

Polling Update: Governor 2009 - NJ, VA

New Jersey Governor 2009

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/3; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/4). Tested: Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and ex-U.S. atty Christopher Christie (R).

General Election Matchup
-               Now 5/12 3/10 1/13
C. Christie     51% 47%  49%  42%
J. Corzine      38  38   34   40
Other            5   6    7    5
Undec            6   9   10   13

Fav/Unfav
-                Now     5/12    3/10    1/13
C. Christie     54%/35% 51%/32% 52%/24% 53%/25%
J. Corzine      41 /58  44 /53  45 /54  50 /47

Corzine As Gov.
-               Now 5/12 3/10 1/13
Approve         42% 40%  33%  44%
Disapprove      58  57   66   54

Virginia Governor 2009

A Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 6/1-3; surveyed 500 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/4). Tested: ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe (D), state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) and ex-Del. Brian Moran (D).

Primary Election Matchup
-               All Men Wom Wht Blk
C. Deeds        29% 30% 27% 32% 25%
T. McAuliffe    26  29  23  25  28
B. Moran        23  20  26  23  22
Undec           22  19  24  19  23

How Likely Are You To Change Your Mind Before The Primary?
(Subgroups By Primary Vote)
-                           All McAuliffe  Moran Deeds
Very likely to change        7%     7%       8%    6%
Somewhat likely to change   43     42        51    36
Unlikely to change          47     47        36    56

Fav/Unfav
B. Obama        82%/12%
T. Kaine        74 /14
B. Clinton      71 /19
C. Deeds        38 / 9
T. McAuliffe    37 /21
B. Moran        33 / 5
B. McDonnell    27 /27

Of The Three Candidates, Who ___?
-                                           McA Moran Deeds
Has run the most negative campaign          26%  10%    7%
Will be the strongest opponent to McDonnell 26   22     25
Has leadership skills to improve VA economy 17   18     26
Cares about problems of people like you     15   18     25
Will fight to protect the environment       15   19     20
Has the most experience to be gov.          14   20     25
Will successfully address VA transportation 11   17     22

Does Knowing WaPo Endorsed Deeds 5/22 Make You
More/Less Likely To Vote For Him?
More likely     23%
Less likely     21
No difference   48

Do Allegations That McAuliffe Offered Ralph Nader Campaign Money
In '04 To Stay Off The WH Ballot In Certain Swing States
Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For McAuliffe?
More likely     10%
Less likely     33
No difference   50

A WDBJ-TV/WJLA-TV poll; conducted 5/31-6/2 by Survey USA (IVR); surveyed 1,701 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.4%. Subsample of 517 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3 (release, 6/3). Party ID Breakdown: 37%D, 33%R, 28%I. Tested: McAuliffe, Deeds, Moran and ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-               All Men Wom Wht Blk 5/19 4/27
T. McAuliffe    35% 33% 35% 32% 38% 37%   38%
C. Deeds        29  30  28  32  26  26    22
B. Moran        26  29  23  26  25  22    22
Other/undec     11   8  13  11  11  14    18

General Election Matchups
-               All Men Wom GOP Dem Ind Wht Blk 5/19 4/27
B. McDonnell    44% 53% 37% 86%  9% 45% 51% 17%  46%  44%
C. Deeds        43  37  48   7  79  36  36  69   40   39
Undec           13  10  16   7  11  19  13  14   15   17

-               All Men Wom GOP Dem Ind Wht Blk 5/19 4/27
B. McDonnell    47% 56% 39% 88% 11% 50% 55% 20%  46%  46%
T. McAuliffe    40  34  47   6  78  30  33  66   40   39
Undec           12  10  14   6  10  19  12  14   13   15

-               All Men Wom GOP Dem Ind Wht Blk 5/19 4/27
B. McDonnell    48% 55% 41% 88% 12% 51% 54% 22% 47%   46%
B. Moran        37  32  41   5  74  25  31  57  37    34
Undec           15  13  17   7  14  24  15  21  16    19

Polling Update: Governor 2009 - VA, PA; Senate 2010 - PA

20009 Virginia Governor

A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 5/28-31; surveyed 559 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 6/2). Tested: state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D), ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe (D) and ex-Del. Brian Moran (D).

Primary Election Matchup
-             All Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/21 5/3 3/29 3/1 2/1
C. Deeds      27% 30% 25% 31% 17% 35% 20%  14% 15% 14% 11%
T. McAuliffe  24  27  22  25  24  23  29   30  18  21  18
B. Moran      22  22  22  21  23  29  20   20  22  19  18
Undec         26  21  30  22  36  14  31   36  45  46  53

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     5/21    5/3     3/29    3/1    2/1
C. Deeds     48%/13% 42%/16% 33%/11% 31%/12% 26%/10% 23%/11%
B. Moran     44 /18  38 /20  39 /11  34 /15  30 /14  34 /10
T. McAuliffe 39 /35  37 /36  42 /25  32 /29  31 /24  30 /23

Pennsylvania Senate 2010

A Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) poll; conducted 5/26-30; surveyed 700 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 6/1). Party ID Breakdown: 52%D, 40%R, 8%I. Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

General Election Matchup
A. Specter         46%
P. Toomey          37
None/other          4
Undec              13

Should Specter Be The Dem Nominee For SEN '10, Or Should He Face A Challenge From One Or More Dems In The Primary?
Should be nominee       28%
Should face challenge   63

Pennsylvania Governor 2010

A Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) poll; conducted 5/26-30; surveyed 700 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 6/1). Party ID Breakdown: 52%D, 40%R, 8%I. Tested: AG Tom Corbett (R) and Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D).

General Election Matchup
T. Corbett         34%
D. Onorato         29
None/other          5
Undec              32

Direction Of PA
Right dir.      37%
Wrong dir.      47