Friday, 10/10

PRESIDENTIAL
FLORIDA
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 10/6-8; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 10/10).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/22 8/24 6/29
Obama/Biden    52% 45%  42%  41%
McCain/Palin   44  48   49   49
Other           1   2    1    1
Undec           3   5    8    9

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     9/22
S. Palin    52%/36% 54%/33%
B. Obama    52 /37  50 /38
J. McCain   48 /41  50 /39
J. Biden    47 /37  45 /36

MINNESOTA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 10/4-7; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/9). Party ID Breakdown: 38%D, 32%R, 30%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+ 9/20
Obama/Biden     47% 85%  7% 42% 46% 48% 47%   47% 48%
McCain/Palin    46   8  89  47  48  44  48    43  47
Other            1  --  --   4   1   1   1     1  --
Undec            6   7   4   7   5   7   4     9   5

MISSOURI
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 10/4-6; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/9). Party ID Breakdown: 36%D, 36%R, 28%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 9/15
McCain/Palin    49% 12% 92% 41% 52% 47% 55%  7% 50%
Obama/Biden     46  81   7  50  43  48  40  87  45
Other            1  --  --   3   1   1   1  --  --
Undec            4   7   1   6   4   4   4   6   5

MONTANA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 10/6-8; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/9). Party ID Breakdown: 37%D, 35%R, 28%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+ 9/9
McCain/Palin    50% 15% 93% 41% 52% 48% 50%   49% 49%
Obama/Biden     45  80   3  52  43  47  45    45  47
Other           --  --  --  --  --  --  --    --   1
Undec            5   5   4   7   5   5   5     6   4

NEW HAMPSHIRE
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 10/6-8; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/9). Party ID Breakdown: 32%R, 31%D, 37%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 9/15 8/20 7/21 6/17
Obama/Biden     52% 88%  2% 65% 43% 61% 45%  46%  47%  51%
McCain/Palin    43   6  95  29  52  34  48   45   45   39
Other            1  --  --   2  --   1   1   na   na   na
Undec            4   6   3   4   5   4   6    9    8   10

NORTH CAROLINA
A Civitas Institute (R) poll; conducted 10/6-8 by Tel Opinion Research (R); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/9). Party ID Breakdown: 48%D, 38%R, 12%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-          All Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 9/20 9/10 8/17 7/16 6/13
B. Obama   48% 89%  4% 35% 37% 90% 45%  44%  40%  40%  41%
J. McCain  43   7  91  35  56   3  45   47   46   43   45
B. Barr     1   1   2   2   2  --   1    *    2    2    2
Undec       7   4   4  28   5   6   8    8   12   15   12

OHIO
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 10/6-8; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 10/10).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/9
Obama/Biden    48% 44%
McCain/Palin   46  48
Other           2   2
Undec           4   6

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     9/9
S. Palin    51%/36% 53%/33%
B. Obama    51 /38  48 /39
J. Biden    47 /39  46 /34
J. McCain   47 /41  49 /36

OHIO
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 10/4-7; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/9). Party ID Breakdown: 38%D, 38%R, 24%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+ 9/13
Obama/Biden     48% 84% 10% 53% 45% 51% 49%   48% 44%
McCain/Palin    45   6  86  41  50  40  45    45  50
Other            1   3  --  --  --   2  --     3  --
Undec            6   7   4   6   5   7   6     4   6

TEXAS
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 10/5-8; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/9). Party ID Breakdown: 40%R, 35%D, 25%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+ 9/16
McCain/Palin    57% 11% 95% 60% 60% 54% 53%   62% 57%
Obama/Biden     38  85   3  27  35  40  42    32  36
Other            1   1  --   2   1   1   1     1   1
Undec            4   3   2  11   4   5   4     4   6

WEST VIRGINIA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 10/4-8; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/9). Party ID Breakdown: 55%D, 35%R, 10%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+ 9/16
Obama/Biden     50% 76% 10% 50% 46% 54% 51%   50% 45%
McCain/Palin    42  20  79  38  49  36  40    45  49
Other            3   2   2   7   3   3   4     1  --
Undec            5   2   9   5   2   7   5     4   7

SENATE
ALASKA
An Ivan Moore Research (D) poll; conducted 10/3-6 for the Anchorage Press/KTUU-TV/KENI-AM; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/10). Tested: Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D).

General Election Matchup

-               Now 9/22 9/2 8/12 7/22
M. Begich       49% 48%  49% 56%  51%
T. Stevens      45  46   46  39   43

KENTUCKY
A Garin Hart Yang (D) poll; conducted 10/6-7 for '03/'07 GOV candidate/businessman Bruce Lunsford (D); surveyed 501 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/9). Tested: Lunsford and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R).

General Election Matchup

M. McConnell        48%
B. Lunsford         45
Undec                7

NEW HAMPSHIRE
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 10/6-8; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/9). Tested: Sen. John Sununu (R) and ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D).

General Election Matchup

-           All GOP Dem Ind 9/15 8/20 7/21 6/17 3/08
J. Shaheen  51%  5% 91% 57% 52%  52%  58%  54%  47%
J. Sununu   42  87   2  37  40   41   36   40   33
Undec        7   8   7   6   8    7    6    6   20

SOUTH DAKOTA
A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll; conducted 10/6-8 for Sen. Tim Johnson (D); surveyed 627 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/9). Tested: Johnson and state Rep. Joel Dykstra (R).

General Election Matchup

-               Now 9/25 8/14
T. Johnson      60% 61%  61%
J. Dykstra      35  34   34

SOUTH DAKOTA
A Moore Information (R) poll; conducted 9/24-25 for Dykstra; surveyed 400 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/9). Tested: Dykstra and Johnson.
General Election Matchup

-              Now 7/31
T. Johnson      54% 56%
J. Dykstra      36  27
Neither         3   2
Undec           8  14

Fav/Unfav

T. Johnson      70%/21%
J. Dykstra      33 /19

HOUSE
AK-AL
An Ivan Moore Research (D) poll; conducted 10/3-6 for the Anchorage Press/KTUU-TV/KENI-AM; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/10). Tested: Rep. Don Young (R) and '06 LG nominee/ex-state House Min. Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D).
General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/22 9/2 8/12 7/22
E. Berkowtiz    51% 49%  54% 51%  52%
D. Young       42  44   37  41   37

CA-03
A Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Assoc. poll; conducted 10/4-6 for physician Bill Durston (D); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (Nichols, Stockton Record, 10/10). Tested: Durston and Rep. Dan Lungren (R).
General Election Matchup

D. Lungren      33%
B. Durston      30
Undec          30

MO-09
A Global Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/5-7 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/10). Tested: state Rep. Judy Baker (D) and ex-state Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R).
General Election Matchup

J. Baker            40%
B. Luetkemeyer      36

OH-15
A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll; conducted 9/30-10/1 for the DCCC; surveyed 401 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Isenstadt, PolitickerOH.com, 10/10). Tested: '06 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy (D), state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) and pro-life activist Don Elijah Eckhart (I).
General Election Matchup

M. Kilroy       44%
S. Stivers      36
D. Eckhart       7

IN-09
A Research 2000 poll; Conducted 9/29-10/3 for WISC-TV; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/9). Party ID Breakdown: 39%R, 36%D, 25%I. Tested: Rep. Baron Hill (D) and ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel (R).
General Election Matchup

-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Hill     49% 86% 14% 52% 47% 52%
M. Sodrel   37   6 69  32  40  34
Other       4   3   4   5   5   3
Undec      10   5  13  11   8  12

MI-07
A Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/6-7 for the DCCC; surveyed 402 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/10). Tested: Rep. Tim Walberg (R) and state Sen. Mark Schauer (D).
General Election Matchup

M. Schauer      43%
T. Walberg      35

MI-09
A Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 10/4-5 for DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/10). Tested: ex-MI lottery commissioner/state Sen. Gary Peters (D), Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) and assisted suicide advocate Jack Kevorkian (I).
General Election Matchup

G. Peters           46%
J. Knollenberg      37
J. Kevorkian         2
Undec              15

MI-09
A Mitchell Research & Communications poll; conducted 9/30-10/2; surveyed LVs; margin of error +/- 6.0% (Price, Detroit News, 10/10).
General Election Matchup

J. Knollenberg 43%
G. Peters      43

NC-10
A Tel Opinion Research (R) poll; conducted 10/6-8 for Rep. Patrick McHenry (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/10). Tested: McHenry and ex-prosecutor Daniel Johnson (D).
General Election Matchup

-              Now 8/14
P. McHenry      54% 51%
D. Johnson      21  31
Undec          25  18

NY-29
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/7-8 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/9). Tested: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) and '06 nominee Eric Massa (D).
General Election Matchup

-          All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
E. Massa    49% 46% 52% 87% 12% 52% 52%   46%   50%   48%
R. Kuhl     42  46 38   5  78  40  39   45    41    43
Other       1   1   1   1   1  1   1     1    1    --
Undec       8   7   9   7   9  7   8     8    8     9

Fav/Unfav

E. Massa    45%/27%
R. Kuhl     33 /44

TX-07
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/7-8 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/9). Tested: Rep. John Culberson (R) and wind power exec. Michael Skelly (D).
General Election Matchup

-            All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
J. Culberson  48% 51% 45% 10% 82% 46% 44%   52%   49%   48%
M. Skelly     40  39 41  79   6  41  43   37    39    40
Undec        12  10  14  11  12  13  13   11    12    12

Fav/Unfav

J. Culberson    43%/38%
M. Skelly       40 /31

WA-08
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/5-7 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/10). Tested: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) and '06 nominee Darcy Burner (D).
General Election Matchup

-          All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
D. Reichert 49% 53% 45% 12% 84% 51% 47%  51%   48%   50%
D. Burner   41  39  43 76   7  40  43    38   42    40
Other       2   2   2   2   1  3   2     3    2     1
Undec       8   6  10  10   8   6   8    8     8     9

Fav/Unfav

D. Reichert     46%/41%
D. Burner       43 /37

Wednesday, 10/8

PRESIDENTIAL
FLORIDA
A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 10/4-6; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/7). Party ID Breakdown: 43%D, 39%R, 18%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 9/18 8/08
Obama/Biden 48% 79% 13% 50% 44% 52% 42% 92% 44% 47%  45%
McCain/Palin 46  15  82  41  52  40  52   3 49  45   44
Other        1  --   2   3   1   1  1  --  --   1   na
Undec        5   6   3   6   3  7   5   5   7   7   11

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     9/18    8/08    11/07
J. McCain   47%/34% 46%/35% 44%/34% 33%/32%
S. Palin    46 /38  45 /31   3 / 2    na
B. Obama    46 /40  47 /37  46 /37  40 /33
J. Biden    43 /29  39 /21  37 /21    na

MINNESOTA
A MN Public Radio News/Univ. of MN; conducted 10/3-5 by the Univ. of CT; surveyed 418 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 10/7).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All Men Wom 17-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 10/1 8/17
B. Obama    54% 44% 55% 58%   47%   47%   52% 47%  48%
J. McCain   40  47  37  40    43    43    40  43   38
Other        2  na  na  na    na    na    na   2    5
Undec        4  na  na  na    na    na    na   9   10

PENNSYLVANIA
An Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll; conducted 10/3-7; surveyed 602 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/8). Party ID Breakdown: 54%D, 39%R, 6%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-          Now 10/6 10/5 10/4 10/3 10/2 10/1 9/30 9/29 9/28
B. Obama   50% 48%  49%  50%  51%  50%  50%  48%  49%  49%
J. McCain  38  38   38   40   39   40   41   41   41   42
Other       3   3    3    3    2    2    2    3    3    2
Undec       9  11    9    7    8    8    7    8    7    7

Fav/Unfav

J. Biden        51%/28%
B. Obama        50 /35
S. Palin        41 /43
J. McCain       40 /42

SENATE
MINNESOTA
A MN Public Radio News/Univ. of MN; conducted 10/3-5 by the Univ. of CT; surveyed 418 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 10/8). Tested: Sen. Norm Coleman (R), entertainer Al Franken (D) and ex-Sen. Dean Barkley (i).

General Election Matchup

-               All GOP Ind Dem Men Wom 10/1 8/17
A. Franken      41%  4% 24% 63% 34% 38% 31%  41%
N. Coleman      37  80  31   8  42  35  40   40
D. Barkley      14   9  24  16  14  14  14    8
Undec            8   7  21  13  na  na  15   11

NEW JERSEY
A Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. PublicMind poll; conducted 9/29-10/5; surveyed 760 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 10/8). Tested: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) and '96 nominee/ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer (R).
General Election Matchup

-              All Dem Ind GOP 9/7 6/22
F. Lautenberg   50% 78% 33% 15% 46% 45%
D. Zimmer       34  11  28  70 35  28
Neither/other   2   1   5   2  na  na
Undec          14  10  34  13  20  28

Fav/Unfav

-              All     Dem    Ind     GOP     9/7
F. Lautenberg   39%/29% 52%/14% 32%/33% 24%/52% 41%/29%
D. Zimmer       17 /12  11 /13  14 /12  28 / 9  16 / 9

HOUSE
CT-04
A Sacred Heart Univ./WSHU-FM poll; conducted 9/22-25; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Chris Shays (R) and Greenwich Dem Chair Jim Himes (D).

General Election Matchup
C. Shays 41%
J. Himes 31

OH-01
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/30-10/1 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) and state Rep. Steve Driehaus (D).
General Election Matchup

-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
S. Driehaus     46% 42% 50% 77%  5% 48% 35% 69%
S. Chabot       44  49  39  13 84  43  55  20
Other           4   5   3   3   4  5   6  --
Undec           6   4   8   7   7  4   4  11

Fav/Unfav

S. Driehaus     45%/31%
S. Chabot       42 /44

OH-16
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/30-10/1 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/7). Tested: state Sen. Kirk Schuring (R) and state Sen. John Boccieri (D).
General Election Matchup

-           All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
J. Boccieri  48% 46% 50% 82%  7% 50% 49%   45%  50%   49%
K. Schuring  38  41  35   6  76  37 36    42    37    37
Other        3   5   3   3   5  6   3     5    5     3
Undec       10   8  12   9  12   7 12     8     8    11

Fav/Unfav

J. Boccieri     44%/25%
K. Schuring     41 /31

Tuesday, 10/7

PRESIDENTIAL
GEORGIA
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/29-10/1 for Daily Kos; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/6). Party ID Breakdown: 41%R, 38%D, 21%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
McCain/Palin    50% 53% 47% 15% 85% 46% 73%  5%
Obama/Biden     43  40  46  80   9  42  21  91
Other            3   4   2   2   3   5   4  --
Undec            4   3   5   3   3   7   2   4

INDIANA
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/3-6; surveyed 903 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 677 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 10/7).
WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              All LVs 9/16
McCain/Palin   48% 51% 51%
Obama/Biden    48  46  45
Neither         3   2   3
Other           *   *   *
Undec           1   *   1

-              All LVs 9/16
B. Obama        47% 46% 43%
J. McCain       45  48  48
B. Barr          6  5   2
None            1   1   2
Other           *  --   7
Undec           1   *   *

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 9/30
McCain/Palin    46% 51% 41%  7% 83% 40% 51%  4% 46%
Obama/Biden     46  43  49  88   7  51  41  88  45
Other            3   3   3   2   3   3   3  --   3
Undec            5   3   7   3   7   6   5   8   6

MICHIGAN
A Denno-Noor/Rossman Group poll; conducted 10/1-4 for MIRS Newsletter; surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/7).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama        44%
J. McCain       39
Undec           13

NEVADA
A Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN-TV poll; conducted 10/3-6 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/7).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               Now 8/20
B. Obama        50% 44%
J. McCain       43  43
Other            3   5
Undec            4   6

NEW HAMPSHIRE
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/3-6; surveyed 912 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 813 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 10/7).
WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              All LVs 9/9
Obama/Biden    52% 53% 51%
McCain/Palin   44  45  45
Neither         3   2   2
Other           *   *   1
Undec           *   *   1

-              All LVs 9/9
B. Obama        51% 51% 48%
J. McCain       42  43  43
B. Barr          2  3   2
R. Nader         2  1   4
None            2   1   1
Other           *   *   1
Undec           *   *   1

NEW JERSEY
A Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. PublicMind poll; conducted 9/29-10/5; surveyed 790 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/7).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom Wht NonWht 9/7 6/22
B. Obama        50% 84% 32%  9% 47% 54% 45% 69%    47% 49%
J. McCain       37   9  24  82  41  33  43  14     41  33
Neither/other    3   1   9   1   2   2   2   1      2   3
Undec           11   6  36   8  10  11   9  16     11  15

NORTH CAROLINA
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/3-6; surveyed 912 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 813 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 10/7).
WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              All LVs 9/9
Obama/Biden    52% 53% 51%
McCain/Palin   44  45  45
Neither         3   2   2
Other           *   *   1
Undec           *   *   1

-              All LVs 9/9
B. Obama        51% 51% 48%
J. McCain       42  43  43
B. Barr          2  3   2
R. Nader         2  1   4
None            2   1   1
Other           *   *   1
Undec           *   *   1

OHIO
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/3-6; surveyed 933 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 749 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 10/7).
WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              All LVs 9/16 9/2
Obama/Biden    50% 50% 49%  47%
McCain/Palin   46  47  47   45
Neither         3   2   2    5
Other           *   *   *    1
Undec           1   1   2    2

-              All LVs 9/16 9/2
B. Obama        47% 48% 46%  45%
J. McCain       44  45  44   44
R. Nader         3  3   4    5
B. Barr          2  2   2    2
C. McKinney      1   *  *    1
None            2   1   1    3
Other           *  --   1    *
Undec           1   1   1    1

OHIO
An ABC News/Washington Post poll; conducted 10/3-5 by TNS; surveyed 891 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 772 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/6).

WH '08 General Election Matchup (Subgroups Among LVs)

-               All LVs Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk WhtWom
Obama/Biden     51% 51% 91%  7% 46% 45% 56% 44% 98% 47%
McCain/Palin    43  45   8  90  45  48  42  51   1  50
Other            1   1  na  na  na  na  na  na  na  na
Neither          2   1  na  na  na  na  na  na  na  na
Wouldn't vote    1  na  na  na  na  na  na  na  na  na
Undec            2   2  na  na  na  na  na  na  na  na

WISCONSIN
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/3-6; surveyed 959 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 859 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 10/7).
WH '08 General Election Matchups

-              All LVs 9/16
Obama/Biden    51% 51% 50%
McCain/Palin   45  46  47
Neither         3   2   2
Other           *   *   *
Undec           *   *   1

-              All LVs 9/16
B. Obama        50% 50% 49%
J. McCain       41  42  45
R. Nader         5  4   3
B. Barr          2  1   1
C. McKinney      1   *   *
None            2   1   1
Other          --  --   *
Undec           1   1   1

SENATE
GEORGIA
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/29-10/1 for Daily Kos; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/6). Tested: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and '06 LG nominee/atty/ex-state Rep. Jim Martin (D).
General Election Matchup

-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
S. Chambliss    45% 48% 42% 13% 77% 42% 63%  8
J. Martin      44  41  47  78  11  46  26  83
Other           4   5   3   3   4  5   6  --
Undec           7   6   8   6   8   7  5   9

Fav/Unfav

-           All     Men    Wom     Dem    GOP     Ind
S. Chambliss 54%/42% 58%/39% 50%/45% 39%/58% 71%/24% 51%/45%
J. Martin    51 /34  48 /38  54 /30  75 /15  27 /54  53 /29

HOUSE
FL-18
A Carlos McDonald poll; conducted 9/27-10/1 for WSCV-TV; surveyed 300 RVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (Clark, Miami Herald, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) and LanguageSpeak CEO Annette Taddeo (D).
General Election Matchup

-                  All Ind
I. Ros-Lehtinen     48% 36%
A. Taddeo          35  39
Undec              17  25

FL-21
A Carlos McDonald poll; conducted 9/27-10/1 for WSCV-TV; surveyed 300 RVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (Clark, Miami Herald, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) and ex-Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez (D).
General Election Matchup

L. Diaz-Balart      48%
R. Martinez         43
Undec               9

FL-25
A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 10/2-5 for Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R); surveyed 300 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 10/6). Tested: Diaz-Balart and ex-Cuban American National Foundation dir./Miami-Dade Co. Dem Chair Joe Garcia (D).
General Election Matchup

-                  Now 7/08
M. Diaz-Balart      49% 44%
J. Garcia           36  38
Undec              15  18

FL-25
A Carlos McDonald poll; conducted 9/27-10/1 for WSCV-TV; surveyed 300 RVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (Clark, Miami Herald, 10/7). Tested: Diaz-Balart and Garcia.
General Election Matchup

-              All Dem GOP Ind Cub NonCubHisp
M. Diaz-Balart  43%  7% 83% 38% 59% 39%
J. Garcia      41  81   3  44  30  46
Undec          16  na  na  na  na  na

MI-07
A Myers Research & Strategic Services (D) poll; conducted 10/5-6 for state Senate Min. Leader Mark Schauer (D); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/7). Tested: Schauer and Rep. Tim Walberg (R).
General Election Matchups

-              All Ind 9/25
M. Schauer      46% 39% 42%
T. Walberg      36 27  36

Generic Dem     44%
Generic GOPer   36

NH-01
A St. Anselm College poll; conducted 9/25-30 by SRBI Research; surveyed 411 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (Landrigan, Nashua Telegraph, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D), ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) and frequent candidate/businessman Bob Kingsbury (L).
General Election Matchup

C. Shea-Porter      42%
J. Bradley          35
B. Kingsbury         2
Undec              21

NH-02
A St. Anselm College poll; conducted 9/25-30 by SRBI Research; surveyed 421 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (Landrigan, Nashua Telegraph, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Paul Hodes (D), radio host Jennifer Horn (R) and gun-rights activist/ex-state Rep. Chester Lapointe (L).
General Election Matchup

P. Hodes       35%
J. Horn         18
C. LaPointe      2
Undec          45

NJ-03
A Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey Poll; conducted 9/30-10/2; surveyed 500 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Subsample of 430 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (release, 10/6). Tested: Medford Mayor Chris Myers (R) and state Sen. John Adler (D).
General Election Matchup

-          All LVs Dem Ind GOP
C. Myers    41% 44%  4% 40% 79%
J. Adler    40  41 79  37   9
Other       -- --   1  --  --
Undec       19 15  16  23  12

Fav/Unfav

-          All     LVs    Dem     Ind     GOP
C. Myers    28%/ 8% 32%/ 8%  5%/16% 33%/ 5% 48%/ 3%
J. Adler    26 / 8  30 / 8 36 /--  30 / 8  13 /17

NM-01
A Albuquerque Journal poll; conducted 9/29-10/2 by Research & Polling, Inc.; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/7). Tested: ex-Albuquerque Councilor Martin Heinrich (D) and Bernalillo Co. Sheriff Darren White (R).
General Election Matchup

-              All Ind
M. Heinrich     43% 47%
D. White       41  31
Undec          16  22

NY-29
A Beneson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/2-4 for the DCCC; surveyed 403 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/6). Tested: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) and '06 nominee Eric Massa (D).
General Election Matchup

E. Massa       47%
R. Kuhl         42
Undec          13

PA-11
A Susquehanna Polling & Research poll; conducted 10/2 for Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/6). Tested: Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) and Barletta.
General Election Matchup

-              Now 9/22 7/08 3/08
L. Barletta     47% 45% 45%  47%
P. Kanjorski    39 41   41   42
Undec          11  14   12   12
None/other      2   1    1    1

Fav/Unfav

-              Now    9/22    7/08    3/08
P. Kanjorski    41%/39% 45%/33% 52%/32% 50%/25%

Monday, 10/6

PRESIDENTIAL
COLORADO
A Denver Post poll; conducted 9/29-10/1 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/5).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now Ind 8/08
B. Obama        44% 49% 45%
J. McCain       44  31  42
Other           4   9  na
Undec           8  11  na

FLORIDA
A FL Chamber of Commerce poll; conducted 9/30-10/1; surveyed 619 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/3).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               Now 8/21
McCain/Palin    45% 42%
Obama/Biden     42  39
Other            3   6
Undec           10  13

MAINE
A Mellman Group (D) poll; conducted 9/30-10/2 for the DSCC; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/6).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama        52%
J. McCain       35
Undec           13

MINNESOTA
A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll; conducted 9/30-10/2 by Princeton Survey Research Assoc. Int'l; surveyed 1,084 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/5).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               Now 9/12 5/08
Obama/Biden     55% 45%  51%
McCain/Palin    37  45   38
Undec            8  10   11

NEW MEXICO
A Albuquerque Journal poll; conducted 9/29-10/2 by Research & Polling, Inc.; surveyed 659 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 10/6).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Ind His
B. Obama        45% 44% 62%
J. McCain       40  29  17
R. Nader         1  na  21
Undec           14  22  na

OHIO
A Columbus Dispatch poll; conducted 9/24-10/3; surveyed 2,262 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.1% (release, 10/5).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His HRC 8/21
Obama/Biden   49% 84%  5% 43% 43% 52% 44% 94% 65% 66% 41%
McCain/Palin  42   7  90  41  48  39  47   2  29  18  42
Other          1  na  na  na  na  na  na  na  na  na   2
Undec          8   8   5  15   8   9   8   3   6  14  15

PENNSYLVANIA
An Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll; conducted 10/1-5; surveyed 601 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/6). Party ID Breakdown: 53%D, 38%R, 8%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-          Now 10/4 10/3 10/2 10/1 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26
B. Obama   49% 50%  51%  50%  50%  48%  49%  49%  48%  47%
J. McCain  38  40   39   40   41   41   41   42   42   42
Other       3   3    2    2    2    3    3    2    2    2
Undec       9   7    8    8    7    8    7    7    8    9

Fav/Unfav

J. Biden        54%/29%
B. Obama        54 /34
S. Palin        42 /44
J. McCain       41 /42

RHODE ISLAND
An Opinion Factor Worldwide poll; conducted 9/30-10/1; surveyed 1,140 adults; margin of error +/- 2.9% (Peoples/Neeedham, Providence Journal, 10/6).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama        48%
J. McCain       26

VIRGINIA
A Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 10/3-5; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/6).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama        51%
J. McCain       39
Other            1
Undec            6

SENATE
COLORADO
A Denver Post poll; conducted 9/29-10/1 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/5). Tested: Rep. Mark Udall (D-02) and '04 candidate/CO Bd. of Ed. member/ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R).

General Election Matchup

-               Now 8/15
M. Udall        43% 47%
B. Schaffer     38  37
Undec           14  na

MAINE
A Mellman Group (D) poll; conducted 9/30-10/2 for the DSCC; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/6). Tested: Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Rep. Tom Allen (D-01).

General Election Matchup

S. Collins      49%
T. Allen        41
Undec           10

MINNESOTA
A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll; conducted 9/30-10/2 by Princeton Survey Research Assoc. Int'l; surveyed 1,084 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/5). Tested: Sen. Norm Coleman (R), entertainer Al Franken (D) and ex-Sen. Dean Barkley (i).

General Election Matchup

-               Now 9/12 5/08
A. Franken      43% 37%  44%
N. Coleman      34  41   51
D. Barkley      18  13   na

NEW HAMPSHIRE
A St. Anselm College poll; conducted 9/25-30 by SRBI Research; surveyed 823 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.4% (AP, 10/4). Tested: ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), Sen. John Sununu (R) and '96/'02 candidate/'98 GOV candidate/'06 NH-02 candidate/realtor Ken Blevins (L).

General Election Matchup

J. Shaheen      49%
J. Sununu       35
K. Blevins       1
Undec           15

NEW MEXICO
A Albuquerque Journal poll; conducted 9/29-10/2 by Research & Polling, Inc.; surveyed 659 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 10/6). Tested: Rep. Tom Udall (D-03) and Rep. Steve Pearce (R-02).

General Election Matchup

-               All Ind His
T. Udall        51% 54% 66%
S. Pearce       36  28  14
Undec           13  18  19

VIRGINIA
A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 9/29-10/1; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (Sluss, Roanoke Times, 10/2). Tested: ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D) and ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R).

General Election Matchup

M. Warner       57%
J. Gilmore      31
Undec           11

HOUSE
ID-01
A Greg Smith & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 9/25-30 for the ID GOP; surveyed 200 RVs; margin of error +/- 6.9% (Idaho Statesman, 10/4). Tested: businessman/'96 SEN nominee Walter Minnick (D) and Rep. Bill Sali (R).

General Election Matchup

B. Sali         51%
W. Minnick      39

IL-10
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/30-10/1 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/5). Tested: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and '06 nominee Dan Seals (D).
General Election Matchup

-          All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
M. Kirk     44% 47% 41% 12% 81% 45% 41%  43%   46%   46%
D. Seals    38  36  40  70   5 34  41    38    37    35
Other       2   2   2   2   1  3   2     3    3     3
Undec      16  15  17  16  13  18  16   16    14    16

Fav/Unfav

-          All    Men     Wom    Dem     GOP     Ind
M. Kirk     45%/40% 49%/37% 41%/43% 32%/55% 65%/20% 42%/42%
D. Seals    43 /28  38 /35  48 /21  60 /15  26 /46  41 /27

MN-03
A Bennett Petts & Normington (D) poll; conducted 9/29-30 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LV;s margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/6). Tested: Iraq war vet/atty Ashwin Madia (D), state Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) and businessman David Dillon (I)

General Election Matchup

A. Madia        44%
E. Paulsen      39
D. Dillon        8
Undec            9

NJ-07
A Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey Poll; conducted 9/30-10/2; surveyed 503 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Subsample of 410 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 10/3). Tested: state Sen. Leonard Lance (R), '06 nominee/Assemb. Linda Stender (D) and Bridgewater Councilor/'08 GOP candidate Michael Hsing (I).
General Election Matchup

-          All LVs Dem Ind GOP
L. Lance    41% 43% 11% 34% 76%
L. Stender  37  39  74  31   6
M. Hsing     2   2   1  3   2
Other       2   2   1   5   1
Undec      18  14  12  27  15

Fav/Unfav

-          All     LVs    Dem     Ind     GOP
L. Lance    25%/16% 27%/18% 15%/26% 19%/18% 40%/ 6%
L. Stender  24 /20  27 /22  50 / 5  18 /17   6 /38

NM-02
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/30-10/1 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/3). Tested: businessman Harry Teague (D) and '02 candidate/K-Bob's steakhouse owner Ed Tinsley (R).
General Election Matchup

-          All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
H. Teague   47% 44% 50% 84% 13% 51% 50%   45%  48%   44%
E. Tinsley  43  48  38   8  77  39  40   46    42    45
Other       3   3   3   2   3  3   2     3    3     3
Undec       7   5   9   6   7  7   8     6    7     8

Fav/Unfav

-          All     Men    Wom     Dem    GOP     Ind
H. Teague   46%/33% 41%/39% 51%/27% 63%/19% 27%/49% 48%/31%
E. Tinsley  40 /37  44 /34  36 /40  24 /54  57 /19 39 /38

OH-02
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/30-10/1 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/4). Tested: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) and '06 nominee Victoria Wulsin (D).
General Election Matchup

-          All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
J. Schmidt  46% 50% 42%  6% 77% 44% 42%   49%  43%   50%
V. Wulsin   39  37  41  82   5  42 42    37    40    37
Other       7   8   6   5   7  9   6     8    7     7
Undec       8   5  11   7  11   5 10     6    10     6

Fav/Unfav

-          All     Men    Wom     Dem    GOP     Ind
V. Wulsin   41%/42% 39%/45% 43%/39% 56%/23% 25%/62% 43%/40%
J. Schmidt  41 /43  45 /40  37 /46  23 /62  61 /23 39 /44

Friday, 10/3

PRESIDENTIAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE
A St. Anselm College poll; conducted 9/25-30 by SRBI Research; surveyed 823 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.4% (AP, 10/3).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama        49%
J. McCain       37
Undec           11

VIRGINIA
A Richmond Times-Dispatch poll; conducted 9/29-10/1 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/2).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              All Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 9/22
McCain/Palin   48% 45% 52% 44% 58%  2% 47%
Obama/Biden    45  45  41  49  35  92  44

Fav/Unfav

-          Now     9/22
J. McCain   47%/27% 48%/22%
B. Obama    44 /33  45 /34
S. Palin    42 /29  46 /23
J. Biden    39 /31  39 /26

SENATE
MINNESOTA
A Mellman Group (D) poll; conducted 9/29-10/1 for the DSCC; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/3). Tested: Sen. Norm Coleman (R), entertainer Al Franken (D) and ex-Sen. Dean Barkley (I).

General Election Matchup

A. Franken          38%
N. Coleman          36
D. Barkley          12
Undec               14

HOUSE
AL-03
A Capital Survey Research Center poll; conducted 9/30-10/1; surveyed 471 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 10/2). Tested: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and atty Josh Segall (D).

General Election Matchup

-               Now 8/18
M. Rogers       45% 54%
J. Segall       36  33
Undec/other     19  14

FL-13
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 10/1 for the NRCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/2). Tested: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R), '04 candidate/'06 nominee Christine Jennings (D) and '02/'04 nominee/'06 Dem candidate Jan Schneider (I).
General Election Matchup

V. Buchanan     46%
C. Jennings     30
J. Schneider     8

Fav/Unfav

V. Buchanan     46%/36%
C. Jennings     28 /48

IN-02
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/29-30 for the South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/2). Tested: Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), businessman Luke Puckett (R) and Mark Vogel (L).
General Election Matchup

-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
J. Donnelly     53% 49% 56% 88% 16% 57%
L. Puckett      35  39  31   8 67  30
M. Vogel         3  4   3   1   4   4
Undec           9   8  10   3  13   9

Fav/Unfav

J. Donnelly     54%/33%
L. Puckett      36 /25

NC-08
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 9/23 and 9/25 for Rep. Robin Hayes (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/2). Tested: Hayes and '06 nominee/teacher Larry Kissell (D).

General Election Matchup

-               Now 8/5
R. Hayes        46% 50%
L. Kissell      43  40

OH-02
A Tarrance Group (R) poll; conducted 9/8-9 for Rep. Jean Schmidt (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/2). Tested: Schmidt, '06 nominee Victoria Wulsin (D) and businessman David Krikorian (I).

General Election Matchup

J. Schmidt          52%
V. Wulsin           36
D. Krikorian         6
Undec                6

PA-10
A Momentum Analysis (D) poll; conducted 9/29-10/1 for Rep. Chris Carney (D); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Toeplitz, Roll Call, 10/3). Tested: Carney and One Source Staffing Solutions Pres. Chris Hackett (R).
General Election Matchup

C. Carney       50%
C. Hackett      36

Fav/Unfav

-              All     GOP
C. Carney       51%/24% 41%/33%
C. Hackett      31 /34    na