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Friday, May 28, 2010

House 2010

AR-03
A Wilson Research Strategies (R) poll; conducted 5/19-20 for ex-Rogers Mayor Steve Womack (R); surveyed 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/26). Tested: Womack and state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe.

Primary Runoff Election Matchup
S. Womack   53%
C. Bledsoe 24
Undec 23

Fav/Unfav
S. Womack   62%/11%
C. Bledsoe 44 /13

SC-05
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 5/17-18 for state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/27). Tested: Mulvaney and Rep. John Spratt (D).

General Election Matchups
J. Spratt      43%
M. Mulvaney 41
Generic GOPer 45%
Generic Dem 36

Spratt As Rep.
Approve        42%
Disapprove 33

Governor 2010

California
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/21-23; surveyed 921 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 5/26). Party ID breakdown: 46%D, 33%R, 21%I. Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Asn Oth
J. Brown 48% 78% 12% 41% 45% 52% 47% 61% 57% 27% 43%
S. Poizner 32 8 67 31 37 28 40 11 16 27 43
Undec 19 14 21 28 18 20 14 28 27 45 15

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Asn Oth
J. Brown 48% 79% 11% 38% 48% 48% 46% 72% 55% 27% 37%
M. Whitman 36 11 72 35 40 32 42 17 20 45 43
Undec 16 11 17 27 12 20 12 11 25 27 20

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
J. Brown 37%/39% 62%/11% 9%/78% 26%/78% 38%/40% 36%/37%
M. Whitman 24 /44 12 /60 41 /26 21 /36 26 /42 21 /45
S. Poizner 19 /43 13 /48 30 /43 13 /31 20 /42 17 /43

New Mexico
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/27). Tested: State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R), atty Pete Domenici Jr. (R), Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R), PR firm owner/ex-Gov. Johnson mgr. Doug Turner (R), businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R) and LG Diane Denish (D).

General Election Matchups
-                Now 3/24
D. Denish 45% 52%
J. Arnold-Jones 31 30
Other 11 6
Undec 13 12

-                Now 3/24
D. Denish 47% 52%
P. Domenici Jr. 30 35
Other 15 6
Undec 9 6

-                Now 3/24
D. Denish 43% 51%
S. Martinez 42 32
Other 3 7
Undec 12 10

-                Now 3/24
D. Denish 47% 43%
D. Turner 31 34
Other 11 7
Undec 11 16

-                Now 3/24
D. Denish 45% 45%
A. Weh 39 35
Other 9 7
Undec 7 13

Fav/Unfav
-                Now     3/24
S. Martinez 57%/29% 30%/29%
D. Denish 53 /41 55 /43
P. Domenici Jr. 47 /42 44 /39
A. Weh 43 /46 33 /31
D. Turner 39 /35 33 /30
J. Arnold-Jones 38 /33 26 /32

Ohio
An Ohio Poll; conducted 5/11-20 by the Univ. of Cincinnati; surveyed 898 adults; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 668 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 5/28). Tested: Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup (LVs)
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
T. Strickland 49% 88% 14% 44% 47% 51%
J. Kasich 44 7 82 30 44 44
Other 1 2 0 5 2 1
Undec 6 4 4 20 7 5

Strickland As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 10/20 4/09 5/08 4/08 5/07
Approve 55% 69% 40% 64% 57% 54% 48% 56% 61% 64% 68%
Disapprove 35 25 50 25 36 34 37 34 25 24 16

Strickland Handling Economy
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 10/20 4/09 5/08 4/08
Approve 46% 62% 33% 43% 50% 42% 41% 48% 51% 50%
Disapprove 46 33 62 48 44 48 49 45 38 41

Senate 2010

Alabama
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/27). Tested: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) and atty William Barnes (D).

General Election Matchup
-          Now 3/29
R. Shelby 58% 59%
W. Barnes 31 32
Other 3 3
Undec 8 6

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     3/29
R. Shelby 67%/22% 67%/24%
W. Barnes 29 /27 35 /26

Arkansas
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/24-26 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 Dem primary runoff LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/27). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 38%D, 33%R, 29%I. Tested: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), LG Bill Halter (D) and Rep. John Boozman (R-03). (Ed. note: Daily Kos has endorsed Halter and is encouraging its readers to support his campaign.)

Primary Runoff Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom Wht Blk AR-01 AR-02 AR-03 AR-04
B. Halter 47% 43% 51% 45% 58% 40% 53% 48% 46%
B. Lincoln 44 49 39 47 28 51 35 44 46
Undec 9 8 10 8 14 9 12 8 8

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/12 4/28 4/14 3/24
J. Boozman 58% 25% 90% 65% 64% 52% 54% 52% 50% 49%
B. Lincoln 38 73 5 29 32 44 40 42 43 42
Undec 4 2 5 6 4 4 6 6 7 9

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/12 4/28 4/14 3/24
J. Boozman 53% 20% 87% 58% 59% 47% 50% 47% 48% 48%
B. Halter 42 78 7 35 36 48 41 42 41 40
Undec 5 2 6 7 5 5 9 11 11 12

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     5/12    4/28
J. Boozman 52%/34% 21%/56% 85%/12% 56%/30% 45%/34% 44%/32%
B. Halter 47 /37 75 /13 15 /63 46 /39 47 /34 48 /32
B. Lincoln 37 /58 59 /36 12 /81 37 /61 39 /55 41 /54

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-           All     Men     Wom     5/12    4/28
B. Halter 63%/21% 59%/25% 67%/17% 65%/17% 66%/14%
B. Lincoln 59 /36 64 /33 54 /39 61 /35 59 /33

Kentucky
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/24-26 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/27). Party ID breakdown: 47%D, 42%R, 11%I. Tested: AG Jack Conway (D) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R).

General Election Matchup
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/12 3/17 9/2
R. Paul 44% 7% 86% 42% 50% 38% 42% 45% 37%
J. Conway 41 75 6 31 36 46 39 39 41
Undec 15 18 8 27 14 16 19 16 22

Fav/Unfav
-          All     Dem     GOP     Ind     5/12    3/17
R. Paul 53%/33% 29%/57% 79%/ 9% 58%/20% 56%/27% 55%/25%
J. Conway 48 /43 76 /19 17 /70 46 /39 46 /44 44 /40

Nevada
A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 5/24-26 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research; surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversample of 500 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/28). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 43%D, 38%R, 19%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), Wall St. banker John Chachas (R), Assemb. Chad Christensen (R), ex-state GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R) and '06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-               All Men Wom 5/11 4/7 2/24 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
S. Lowden 30% 28% 32% 30% 45% 47% 26% 25% 23% 14%
S. Angle 29 33 25 25 5 8 13 13 9 5
D. Tarkanian 23 22 24 22 27 29 28 24 21 33
C. Christensen 3 2 4 2 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
J. Chachas 2 1 3 3 3 1 -- 1 -- --
Others 2 3 1 n/a n/a n/a 1 4 3 1
None of these 3 2 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 8 9 7 18 16 15 32 33 44 47

General Election Matchup
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/24 1/7
H. Reid 42% 71% 9% 40% 39% 45% 42% 40%
S. Angle 39 10 73 36 43 35 44 45
Others 5 3 5 7 4 6 n/a n/a
None 4 3 4 7 5 3 n/a n/a
Undec 10 13 9 10 9 11 14 15

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 4/7 2/24 1/7 12/2
S. Lowden 42% 13% 75% 39% 49% 35% 47% 46% 52% 50% 51%
H. Reid 39 69 7 36 34 44 37 38 39 40 41
Others 3 3 3 5 3 3 5 5 n/a n/a n/a
None 6 4 7 9 5 7 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 10 11 8 11 9 11 8 11 9 10 8

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/7 2/24 1/7 12/2
D. Tarkanian 42% 15% 74% 37% 45% 39% 39% 51% 49% 48%
H. Reid 41 69 11 37 37 45 39 40 41 42
Others 4 4 5 4 3 5 11 n/a n/a n/a
None of these 3 4 1 6 3 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 10 8 9 16 12 8 11 9 10 10

Fav/Unfav
-               Now     4/14    4/7     2/24    1/7
S. Lowden 41%/28% 45%/23% 40%/24% 36%/17% 32%/17%
H. Reid 37 /49 33 /54 34 /56 33 /51 33 /52
D. Tarkanian 31 /17 n/a 28 /22 30 /17 33 /16
S. Angle 29 /23 n/a 20 /19 19 / 9 21 /11

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-               Now     5/11    4/7
S. Lowden 45%/22% 46%/21% 54%/14%
D. Tarkanian 44 / 7 42 /12 46 /12
S. Angle 41 /13 38 /11 22 /15

Ohio
An Ohio Poll; conducted 5/11-20 by the Univ. of Cincinnati; surveyed 668 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 5/28). Tested: LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-Rep./ex-OMB Dir. Rob Portman (R).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
L. Fisher 47% 87% 10% 35% 43% 51%
R. Portman 46 8 84 44 48 45
Other 1 2 1 0 2 0
Undec 6 3 5 20 7 5

Pennsylvania
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/24-26 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/28). Party ID breakdown: 47%D, 39%R, 14%I. Tested: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

General Election Matchup
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/12 3/10 8/12 5/09
J. Sestak 43% 76% 6% 35% 37% 49% 40% 39% 42% 37%
P. Toomey 40 8 82 35 44 36 45 42 41 32
Undec 17 16 12 30 19 15 15 19 17 31

Fav/Unfav
-          All     Dem     GOP     Ind     5/12    3/10
J. Sestak 48%/30% 71%/11% 20%/55% 47%/27% 39%/26% 35%/23%
P. Toomey 47 /42 17 /67 85 /12 47 /40 45 /40 41 /36

Washington
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/26; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/28). Tested: Sen. Patty Murray (D), businessman Paul Akers (R), '98 WA-03 nominee/state Sen./ex-state GOP chair Don Benton (R), farmer/ex-Redskins tight end Clint Didier (R) and '04/'08 GOV nominee Dino Rossi (R).

General Election Matchups
-          Now 5/4 3/9   
P. Murray 47% 49% 45%
P. Akers 32 35 37
Other 6 6 5
Undec 15 10 13

-          Now 5/4 4/6 3/9 2/11
P. Murray 50% 52% 48% 48% 50%
D. Benton 35 38 40 37 38
Other 6 3 4 3 3
Undec 9 7 8 12 9

-          Now 5/4 4/6 3/9 2/11
P. Murray 47% 51% 47% 49% 49%
C. Didier 37 36 37 30 34
Other 6 4 5 6 4
Undec 10 8 11 15 13

-          Now 5/4 4/6 3/9 2/11
P. Murray 48% 48% 48% 46% 46%
D. Rossi 47 46 46 49 48
Other 2 2 3 3 1
Undec 4 3 4 2 5

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     5/4     4/6     3/9     2/11
P. Murray 52%/44% 52%/44% 53%/43% 53%/41% 51%/45%
D. Rossi 52 /43 52 /44 52 /44 51 /45 54 /41
C. Didier 33 /31 28 /31 26 /29 27 /26 28 /28
D. Benton 31 /32 32 /30 34 /25 26 /29 33 /28
P. Akers 27 /33 31 /29 29 /27 n/a n/a

USA Today/Gallup

Environment
Conducted 5/24-25; surveyed 1,049 adults; margin of error +/- 3.0%. Subsample of 946 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 5/27).

Do You Think Protection Of The Environment Should Be Given Priority, Even At The Risk Of Cubing Economic Growth, Or Do You Think Economic Growth Should Be Given Priority, Even If The Environment Suffers To Some Extent?
-                Now 3/7 3/09 3/08 3/07 3/06 3/05 3/04 3/03
Environment 50% 38% 42% 49% 55% 52% 53% 49% 47%
Economic growth 43 53 51 42 37 37 36 44 42
Equal priority 4 4 5 5 4 6 7 4 7

Do You Favor/Oppose Increasing Offshore Drilling For Oil And Gas In U.S. Coastal Areas?
-        All RVs
Favor 50% 52%
Oppose 46 44

Thursday, May 27, 2010

House 2010

AR-03
A Wilson Research Strategies (R) poll; conducted 5/19-20 for ex-Rogers Mayor Steve Womack (R); surveyed 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/26). Tested: Womack and state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe.

Primary Runoff Election Matchup
S. Womack   53%
C. Bledsoe 24
Undec 23

Fav/Unfav
S. Womack   62%/11%
C. Bledsoe 44 /13

SC-05
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 5/17-18 for state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/27). Tested: Mulvaney and Rep. John Spratt (D).

General Election Matchups
J. Spratt      43%
M. Mulvaney 41

Generic GOPer  45%
Generic Dem 36

Spratt As Rep.
Approve        42%
Disapprove 33

Governor 2010

California
A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/24; surveyed 649 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 5/26). Tested: Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-           All Men Wom 2/25
M. Whitman 54% 58% 50% 61%
S. Poizner 19 18 20 11
Other 15 16 14 4
Undec 12 8 16 24

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     2/25
M. Whitman 56%/23% 62%/ 9%
S. Poizner 31 /51 22 /22

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/26). Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), Poizner and Whitman.

General Election Matchups
-           Now 4/19 3/15 2/15 1/19 11/17 9/24
J. Brown 43% 50% 42% 46% 45% 43% 45%
S. Poizner 42 32 27 34 35 32 32
Other 7 10 13 7 9 7 5
Undec 8 8 18 13 11 18 18

-           Now 4/19 3/15 2/15 1/19 11/17 9/24 1/09
J. Brown 45% 44% 40% 43% 43% 41% 44% 40%
M. Whitman 41 38 40 43 39 41 35% 38
Other 8 9 6 6 7 3 3 5
Undec 7 9 14 8 11 14 18 17

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/19    3/15    2/15    1/19    11/17
J. Brown 53%/42% 51%/42% 46%/44% 53%/41% 49%/40% 48%/41%
M. Whitman 48 /47 47 /43 51 /34 56 /28 48 /30 47 /27
S. Poizner 48 /47 38 /46 29 /47 38 /37 40 /31 36 /26

Connecticut
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 5/24-25; surveyed 379 Dem RVs and 231 GOP RVs; margins of error +/- 5.0% and 6.5%, respectively (release, 5/27). Tested: '06 SEN nominee/businessman Ned Lamont (D), '06 candidate/Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), LG Mike Fedele (R), ex-U.S. Amb. to Ireland Tom Foley (R) and businessman Oz Griebel (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom
N. Lamont 41% 43% 40%
D. Malloy 24 30 19
Other 2 3 2
Not vote 3 3 3
Undec 30 20 37

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-           All Men Wom
T. Foley 37% 37% 37%
M. Fedele 11 13 6
O. Griebel 5 7 1
Other 3 3 2
Not vote 3 3 3
Undec 42 37 49

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-           All     Men     Wom     3/15
N. Lamont 46%/12% 47%/23% 45%/ 6% 43%/13%
D. Malloy 28 / 5 36 / 4 24 / 5 35 / 9

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-           All     Men     Wom     3/15
T. Foley 34%/ 6% 38%/ 9% 30%/ 2% 37%/ 6%
M. Fedele 15 / 6 21 / 7 7 / 5 11 / 8
O. Griebel 10 / 2 11 / 3 8 /-- 5 / 3

Georgia
An InsiderAdvantage (IVR) poll; conducted 5/26; surveyed 428 Dem primary Lvs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (release, 5/27). Tested: Ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), AG Thurbert Baker (D), management technical consultant Bill Bolton (D), educator Carl Camon (D), state Rep. Randal Mangham (D), state House Min. Leader Dubose Porter (D) and '98 candidate/ex-GA Nat'l Guard Adj. Gen. David Poythress (D).

Primary Election Matchup
-             Now 4/6 2/28 4/09
R. Barnes 64% 47% 36% 35%
D. Porter 8 5 3 3
T. Baker 6 18 7 11
C. Camon 5 n/a n/a n/a
D. Poythress 1 6 2 2
R. Mangham 1 n/a n/a n/a
B. Bolton 0 n/a n/a n/a
Other n/a n/a 4 n/a
Undec 15 24 48 49

New Mexico
A KOB-TV poll; conducted 5/23-25 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 1,405 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6%. Subsample of 464 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 5/26). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 50%D, 37%R, 12%I. Tested: State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R), atty Pete Domenici Jr. (R), Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R), PR firm owner/ex-Gov. Johnson mgr. Doug Turner (R), businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R) and LG Diane Denish (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-                All Men Wom
S. Martinez 43% 41% 46%
A. Weh 33 34 32
D. Turner 8 11 6
P. Domenici 8 7 8
J. Arnold-Jones 3 2 3
Undec 5 6 5

General Election Matchups
-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Denish 49% 78% 14% 38% 45% 53%
J. Arnold-Jones 35 11 67 40 41 30
Undec 16 11 19 22 14 17

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Denish 46% 71% 15% 43% 43% 49%
P. Domenici 40 19 70 34 45 36
Undec 14 10 16 24 13 15

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
S. Martinez 49% 23% 83% 50% 53% 45%
D. Denish 43 70 9 38 40 46
Undec 8 7 8 12 7 9

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Denish 50% 79% 14% 40% 47% 53%
D. Turner 36 10 70 37 41 31
Undec 14 11 16 22 12 16

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Denish 47% 77% 11% 36% 44% 50%
A. Weh 42 15 79 45 48 37
Undec 10 9 10 19 8 13

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/27). Tested: '02 candidate/Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (D), '98 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (R) and Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 4/20 3/16 2/17
M. Neumann 44% 46% 46% 44%
T. Barrett 42 46 42 42
Other 6 4 4 4
Undec 8 5 8 10

-           Now 4/20 3/16 2/17
S. Walker 48% 46% 48% 49%
T. Barrett 41 44 42 40
Other 3 3 2 1
Undec 8 7 8 10

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/20    3/16    2/17
S. Walker 52%/30% 48%/33% 55%/28% 55%/29%
M. Neumann 48 /31 53 /31 53 /27 49 /31
T. Barrett 48 /36 40 /46 53 /34 49 /36

A Tarrance Group (R) poll; conducted 5/16-17 for GOPAC (R); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/27).

Barrett As Milwaukee Mayor
Approve     39%
Disapprove 23

Senate 2010

California
A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/24; surveyed 649 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 5/26). Tested: '00 candidate/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, Assemb. Chuck DeVore and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

Primary Election Matchup
-            All Men Wom 2/25
C. Fiorina 44% 44% 43% 20%
T. Campbell 21 25 18 33
C. DeVore 14 18 11 11
Other 7 7 8 6
Undec 14 6 20 30

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     2/25
C. Fiorina 56%/17% 26%/18%
T. Campbell 35 /29 32 /15
C. DeVore 27 /19 18 /17

A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/21-23; surveyed 921 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 5/26). Party ID breakdown: 46%D, 33%R, 21%I. Tested: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), Campbell, DeVore and Fiorina.

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Asn Oth
B. Boxer 47% 82% 7% 36% 46% 49% 41% 67% 57% 64% 35%
T. Campbell 40 9 82 43 42 38 50 17 20 27 50
Undec 12 10 11 21 11 13 9 17 23 9 15

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Asn Oth
B. Boxer 46% 80% 6% 35% 44% 49% 41% 61% 56% 55% 41%
C. DeVore 40 8 86 42 44 37 50 17 21 27 50
Undec 13 12 8 24 13 14 9 22 23 18 9

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Asn Oth
B. Boxer 45% 78% 7% 32% 44% 46% 41% 67% 48% 55% 37%
C. Fiorina 42 10 87 42 44 40 50 17 30 27 48
Undec 13 12 6 26 12 14 8 17 23 18 15

Boxer As Sen.
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Asn Oth
Approve 37% 67% 4% 24% 37% 37% 34% 56% 43% 27% 28%
Disapprove 46 13 89 50 49 43 54 22 30 36 59

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
C. Fiorina 22%/30% 6%/43% 48%/18% 15%/23% 22%/34% 21%/28%
T. Campbell 15 /18 7 /21 28 /19 16 /10 19 /20 12 /16
C. DeVore 10 /14 3 /18 20 /12 9 /10 42 /46 38 /49

Connecticut
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 5/24-25; surveyed 1,159 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.9%. Subsample of 231 GOPers; margin of error +/- 6.5% (release, 5/27). Tested: AG Richard Blumenthal (D), ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R), ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) and businessman Peter Schiff (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom 3/15 1/12 11/8 9/14 7/20 5/09
L. McMahon 49% 46% 52% 44% 27% 17% n/a n/a n/a
R. Simmons 23 24 21 34 37 28 43 42 48
P. Schiff 11 12 8 9 4 5 2 -- n/a
Other/others 1 1 1 1 2 13 11 11 11
Not vote 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
Undec 15 14 16 12 28 36 43 45 39

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/15 1/12
R. Blumenthal 56% 83% 27% 56% 53% 59% 61% 64%
L. McMahon 31 8 64 31 34 29 28 23
Other 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1
Not vote 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1
Undec 10 8 7 9 9 11 10 11

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/15 1/12
R. Blumenthal 59% 85% 26% 59% 56% 63% 64% 66%
P. Schiff 25 5 53 24 30 19 21 19
Other 1 1 1 2 2 1 -- 1
Not vote 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 1
Undec 13 8 15 12 10 15 13 14

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/15 1/12
R. Blumenthal 55% 82% 26% 53% 51% 59% 62% 62%
R. Simmons 28 5 57 30 35 21 26 27
Other 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 --
Not vote 3 1 4 3 2 3 1 1
Undec 13 10 12 11 10 16 10 10

Blumenthal As AG
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/15 1/12 11/8 9/14 7/20
Approve 76% 88% 63% 76% 75% 76% 79% 84% 78% 78% 79%
Disapprove 16 6 31 14 19 12 13 11 13 14 13

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/15
R. Blumenthal 61%/29% 82%/10% 41%/49% 58%/33% 70%/18%
R. Simmons 36 /14 25 /19 50 /10 40 /13 38 /21
L. McMahon 32 /39 15 /55 60 /20 31 /40 36 /26
P. Schiff 15 / 6 7 / 8 31 / 4 11 / 7 10 / 6

Do You Think ___ Has The Right Kind Of Experience To Be A Sen. From CT?
-              Yes No
R. Blumenthal 76% 15%
R. Simmons 52 13
L. McMahon 29 52

Would You Say That ___ Cares About The Needs And Problems Of People Like You?
-              Yes No
R. Blumenthal 69% 21%
R. Simmons 48 17
L. McMahon 45 33

Would You Say That ___ Is Honest And Trustworthy?
-              Yes No
R. Blumenthal 60% 27%
R. Simmons 52 11
L. McMahon 45 24

Would You Say That ___ Has Strong Leadership Qualities?
-              Yes No
R. Blumenthal 73% 19%
L. McMahon 54 23
R. Simmons 49 15

How Much Have You Heard Or Read About The Controversy Regarding Blumenthal's Statements About His Military Service During The Vietnam War?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
A lot 62% 56% 68% 66% 64% 29%
Some 26 33 18 25 26 26
Not much 7 5 7 6 6 8
Nothing at all 4 3 6 3 3 4

Does This Controversy Make You Think More/Less Favorably Of Blumenthal, Or Doesn't It Make A Difference?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More favorably 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 4%
Less favorably 43 27 62 46 49 36
No difference 51 66 34 47 44 56

How Important Will This Controversy Be To Your Vote In The General Election For Sen. In Nov.?
-                      All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Very important 20% 9% 32% 23% 23% 18%
Somewhat important 21 17 26 21 16 25
Not too important 20 21 16 21 20 19
Not important at all 37 48 24 34 39 34

Does The Controversy About Blumenthal's Statements Regarding His Military Service During The Vietnam War Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Him, Or Doesn't It Make A Difference?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 1%
Less likely 33 17 51 35 35 31
No difference 61 75 44 60 60 62

Which One Better Describes How Blumenthal Has Portrayed His Military Service During The Vietnam War?
-                                  All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Blumenthal has misspoken/not lied 54% 69% 36% 52% 50% 58%
Blumenthal has lied 38 22 56 41 45 32

Are You Satisfied/Not Satisfied With Blumenthal's Explanation Of This Matter?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Satisfied 53% 72% 36% 51% 50% 56%
Not satisfied 35 19 54 38 41 31

Oregon
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/26). Tested: Sen. Ron Wyden (D) and Lewis & Clark law prof. Jim Huffman (R).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 2/16
R. Wyden 51% 49%
J. Huffman 38 35
Other 4 7
Undec 7 9

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     2/16
R. Wyden 56%/38% 55%/36%
J. Huffman 42 /22 33 /24

South Carolina
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/22-23; surveyed 1,255 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 5/26). Party ID breakdown: 43%R, 35%D, 21%I. Tested: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) and Charleston Co. Councilor/ex-circuit judge/ex-state Rep. Vic Rawl (D).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth
J. DeMint 49% 10% 82% 48% 56% 43% 62% 8% 34%
V. Rawl 30 60 7 27 28 32 22 54 41
Undec 21 30 11 25 16 25 15 38 24

DeMint As Sen.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 12/6
Approve 43% 14% 67% 42% 50% 37% 51% 21% 21% 44%
Disapprove 36 59 15 42 38 35 31 51 48 29

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
V. Rawl 5%/14% 4%/18% 5%/11% 4%/14% 6%/16% 3%/12%

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/27). Tested: Sen. Russ Feingold (D), businessman Ron Johnson (R), developer Terrence Wall (R) and businessman Dave Westlake (R).

General Election Matchups
R. Feingold  46%
R. Johnson 44
Other 3
Undec 6

-            Now 4/20 3/16 2/17   
R. Feingold 47% 49% 49% 47%
T. Wall 41 43 40 39
Other 5 3 3 6
Undec 7 5 9 7

-            Now 4/20 3/16 2/17
R. Feingold 47% 49% 51% 47%
D. Westlake 38 38 35 37
Other 7 4 5 6
Undec 8 9 10 10

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     4/20    3/16    2/17    1/26
R. Feingold 53%/44% 51%/48% 51%/47% 50%/48% 47%/48%
R. Johnson 42 /25 n/a n/a n/a n/a
T. Wall 38 /30 35 /33 39 /28 34 /35 n/a
D. Westlake 36 /26 30 /34 34 /26 33 /31 n/a

A Tarrance Group (R) poll; conducted 5/16-17 for GOPAC (R); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/26).

Feingold As Sen.
Approve      56%
Disapprove 39

Re-Elect Feingold?
Deserves re-election      45%
Give new person a chance 49

USA Today/Gallup

Oil Spill Response
Conducted 5/24-25; surveyed 1,049 adults; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 5/27).

How Closely Are You Following The News About The Oil Spill In The Gulf Of Mexico Off
The Coast Of LA?
Very closely      47%
Somewhat closely 40
Not too closely 9
Not at all 5

Obama Handling Oil Spill
Very good/good    43%
Poor/very poor 53

Federal Gov't Handling Oil Spill
Very good/good    35%
Poor/very poor 60

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

House 2010

OH-01
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted for ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Giroux, Roll Call, 5/26). Tested: Chabot and Rep. Steve Driehaus (D).

General Election Matchup
S. Chabot    53%
S. Driehaus 39

Re-Elect Driehaus?
Deserves re-election  34%
Someone new 49

OH-16
A Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 5/13 for the U.S. Citizens Assn (R); surveyed 300 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 24). Tested: Rep. John Boccieri (D) and businessman/ex-Wadsworth Mayor Jim Renacci (R).

General Election Matchup
J. Renacci   47%
J. Boccieri 35
Undec 16

Fav/Unfav
J. Boccieri  37%/34%
J. Renacci 31 /13

SC-01
A National Research (R) poll; conducted 5/23-24 for the Club For Growth; surveyed 300 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 5/26). Tested: Late-Gov. Campbell son/businessman Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell (R), Mount Pleasant Councilor Ken Glasson (R), ex-Cong. aide/'08 candidate Katherine Jenerette (R), businessman Mark Lutz (R), accountant Clark Parker (R), state Rep. Tim Scott (R), late-Sen. Thurmond son/atty Paul Thurmond (R) and Rep. Brown ex-CoS/Charleston Southern Univ. VP Stovall Witte (R). (Note: The Club for Growth has endorsed Scott in the primary.)

Primary Election Matchup
T. Scott      30%
C. Campbell 10
P. Thurmond 9
C. Parker 9
L. Kobrovsky 8
S. Witte 6
M. Lutz 4
K. Glasson 2
K. Jenrette 2

Primary Runoff Election Matchups
T. Scott      53%
C. Campbell 28

T. Scott      55%
P. Thurmond 19

Fav/Unfav
T. Scott      53%/ 5%
C. Campbell 48 /11
P. Thurmond 34 /10

Governor 2010

California
A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 5/23-24 for ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R); surveyed 600 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/25). Tested: Whitman and Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner.

Primary Election Matchup
M. Whitman  53%
S. Poizner 27

Fav/Unfav
M. Whitman  58%/25%
S. Poizner 39 /37

A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/21-23; surveyed 417 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 5/25). Tested: Whitman and Poizner.

Primary Election Matchup
-           All Men Wom
M. Whitman 51% 46% 56%
S. Poizner 26 27 26
Other 11 12 9
Undec 12 16 9

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Men     Wom
M. Whitman 50%/24% 46%/26% 55%/22%
S. Poizner 26 /44 27 /36 25 /53

Massachusetts
A WHDH-TV/Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 5/20-23; surveyed 500 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/25). Tested: Gov. Deval Patrick (D), Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO/ex-MA HHS/Finance sec. Charlie Baker (R), Treas. Tim Cahill (I) and '02 candidate Jill Stein (G).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/24 11/8 9/15
D. Patrick 42% 76% 7% 26% 39% 45% 33% 38% 36%
C. Baker 29 6 77 35 30 29 25 15 14
T. Cahill 14 13 11 15 14 13 23 26 23
J. Stein 8 5 0 11 9 7 3 n/a n/a
Undec 7 1 5 11 8 6 16 22 26

Patrick As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/24 11/8
Approve 42% 66% 11% 32% 40% 43% 35% 42%
Disapprove 49 22 85 60 53 45 54 51

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/24    11/8
D. Patrick 45%/46% 73%/20% 10%/85% 33%/56% 38%/50% 43%/47%
T. Cahill 22 /34 22 /29 15 /43 22 /35 31 /16 41 /13
C. Baker 20 /17 13 /24 25 / 5 24 /15 18 /12 13 / 7
J. Stein 7 / 7 7 / 7 2 / 5 8 / 8 n/a n/a

Does Patrick Deserve To Be Re-Elected, Or Is It Time To Elect Someone Else?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/24 11/8 9/15 3/09
Re-elect him 33% 56% 10% 23% 30% 37% 29% 32% 29% 34%
Someone else 55 28 84 68 60 51 60 55 56 47
Undec 11 15 7 9 10 12 11 13 15 20

Which Candidate Has Run The Best Campaign Thus Far?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Patrick 24% 39% 7% 17% 20% 27%
C. Baker 16 8 31 18 17 15
T. Cahill 11 7 11 14 12 10
J. Stein 2 2 3 1 3 2
Undec 45 43 48 48 47 44

Which Candidate Has Run The Worst Campaign?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
T. Cahill 14% 15% 20% 11% 18% 10%
J. Stein 13 13 8 15 10 16
D. Patrick 13 6 20 15 13 12
C. Baker 11 13 3 12 13 9
Undec 48 52 49 46 45 51

Have You Seen The Attack Ads Against Cahill?
-       All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Yes 67% 59% 72% 72% 66% 68%
No 33 41 28 28 33 32

Which Candidate Do You Trust The Most?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Patrick 34% 57% 7% 24% 33% 35%
C. Baker 15 5 26 19 18 12
T. Cahill 10 6 18 11 12 8
J. Stein 6 3 8 7 6 7
Undec 34 27 41 38 31 37

Which Candidate Reminds You The Most Of Scott Brown?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Baker 26% 17% 30% 31% 30% 22%
T. Cahill 9 7 7 11 12 6
D. Patrick 5 7 0 4 5 5
J. Stein 2 2 8 1 2 3
Undec 56 65 56 50 49 63

Regardless Of Who You Are Personally Supporting, Who Do You Believe Will Be Elected?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Patrick 48% 66% 36% 39% 50% 47%
C. Baker 20 8 34 25 22 19
T. Cahill 9 6 13 10 11 7
J. Stein 1 1 2 0 1 1
Undec 21 19 15 25 16 26

Minnesota
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/26). Tested: State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D), ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D), atty/ex-state House Min. Leader Matt Entenza (D), state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and PR exec Tom Horner (IP).

General Election Matchups
-                     Now 3/10
T. Emmer 38% 37%
M. Anderson Kelliher 36 34
T. Horner 11 10
Undec 15 18

-                     Now 3/10
T. Emmer 37% 35%
M. Dayton 35 38
T. Horner 12 7
Undec 16 20

-                     Now 3/10
T. Emmer 37% 37%
M. Entenza 34 28
T. Horner 12 8
Undec 17 26

Fav/Unfav
-                     Now     3/10
M. Dayton 48%/39% 44%/45%
M. Anderson Kelliher 45 /36 39 /41
T. Emmer 45 /31 38 /26
M. Entenza 38 /34 27 /31
T. Horner 30 /36 n/a

New Mexico
A Dialing Services LLC (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25 for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan; surveyed 771 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 5/25). Tested: State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R), atty Pete Domenici Jr. (R), Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R), PR firm owner/ex-Gov. Johnson mgr. Doug Turner (R) and businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-                All Men Wom
S. Martinez 41% 47% 30%
A. Weh 30 28 35
D. Turner 9 8 9
P. Domenici 8 6 12
J. Arnold-Jones 4 4 5
Undec 8 8 8

Oregon
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/20; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/25). Tested: Ex-Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley (R) and ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D).

General Election Matchup
-             Now 4/26 2/17
C. Dudley 45% 41% 34%
J. Kitzhaber 44 41 42
Other 4 6 7
Undec 6 13 15

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     4/26    2/17
C. Dudley 53%/25% 46%/25% 40%/24%
J. Kitzhaber 46 /47 58 /34 44 /42

South Carolina
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/22-23; surveyed 1,255 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 5/26). Party ID breakdown: 43%R, 35%D, 21%I. Tested: State Sen. Robert Ford (D), Educ. Supt. Jim Rex (D), state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D), Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-03), LG André Bauer (R), state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and AG Henry McMaster (R).

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 12/6
G. Barrett 38% 7% 65% 36% 44% 34% 48% 7% 34% 40%
J. Rex 36 70 10 34 36 36 26 69 45 33
Undec 25 23 25 30 20 30 26 25 21 27

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 12/6
G. Barrett 43% 9% 73% 36% 49% 37% 52% 13% 34% 41%
V. Sheheen 33 67 6 32 32 33 25 57 45 26
Undec 25 24 21 31 19 30 23 30 21 33

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 12/6
J. Rex 40% 72% 16% 36% 37% 42% 31% 67% 45% 37%
A. Bauer 38 10 62 34 43 33 47 8 38 36
Undec 22 18 22 31 20 25 22 25 17 27

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 12/6
A. Bauer 38% 9% 67% 30% 43% 34% 48% 7% 45% 38%
V. Sheheen 38 73 12 33 38 39 29 67 45 33
Undec 23 18 21 38 19 27 23 26 10 30

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth
N. Haley 45% 14% 72% 42% 52% 39% 54% 16% 38%
J. Rex 36 67 11 33 35 36 28 61 34
Undec 19 18 18 25 13 25 18 23 28

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth
N. Haley 44% 7% 75% 43% 52% 37% 56% 7% 34%
V. Sheheen 34 71 6 28 33 34 23 67 38
Undec 22 22 19 29 15 28 21 26 28

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 12/6
H. McMaster 42% 6% 72% 40% 48% 37% 53% 7% 31% 40%
J. Rex 36 74 7 34 35 37 26 69 45 31
Undec 22 20 21 26 17 26 21 25 24 29

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 12/6
H. McMaster 43% 6% 75% 39% 49% 37% 54% 10% 28% 41%
V. Sheheen 36 76 5 35 35 37 26 69 48 27
Undec 21 18 20 27 15 26 21 21 24 31

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     12/6
N. Haley 29%/26% 13%/40% 42%/13% 29%/29% n/a
H. McMaster 27 /32 13 /45 40 /20 23 /34 30%/20%
A. Bauer 21 /50 13 /55 28 /47 21 /47 22 /43
J. Rex 18 /21 26 /16 8 /26 23 /19 22 /19
G. Barrett 18 /25 7 /36 28 /16 16 /25 14 /17
V. Sheheen 17 /16 28 /11 7 /21 20 /14 9 /14

Senate 2010

California
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/21-23; surveyed 417 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 5/25). Tested: '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO/McCain Victory '08 chair Carly Fiorina (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-            All Men Wom
C. Fiorina 41% 39% 43%
T. Campbell 21 22 20
C. DeVore 16 16 16
Other 4 5 2
Undec 18 18 19

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Men     Wom
C. Fiorina 46%/17% 44%/20% 49%/13%
T. Campbell 28 /19 30 /21 25 /16
C. DeVore 24 /14 22 /17 26 /10

CBS News 2010

Oil Spill/Offshore Drilling
Conducted 5/20-24; surveyed 1,054 adults; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 5/25).

Obama Admin. Handling Gulf Oil Spill
-           All Dem GOP Ind
Approve 35% 50% 24% 29%
Disapprove 45 32 52 50

Would You Favor Allowing Increased Drilling For Oil And Natural Gas Off The U.S. Coast, Or Do You Think The Costs And Risks Are Too Great?
-                       All Dem GOP Ind 5/9 8/08
Favor 45% 37% 67% 37% 46% 62%
Costs/risks too great 46 54 25 52 41 28

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

House 2010

VA-02
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 5/17-18 for car dealer Scott Rigell (R); surveyed 300 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 5/25). Tested: Rigell, businessman/Naval reservist Ben Loyola, defense contractor/ret. Navy SEAL Ed Maulbeck, Army Reserve Brig. Gen. Bert Mizusawa and Navy SEAL Scott Taylor.

Primary Election Matchup
S. Rigell    47%
B. Mizusawa 10
S. Taylor 9
B. Loyola 6
E. Maulbeck 1

Fav/Unfav
S. Rigell    64%/ 4%
S. Taylor 22 / 4
B. Mizusawa 21 / 1
B. Loyola 21 / 5
E. Maulbeck 7 / 3

VA-11
A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 5/12-13 for '08 nominee Keith Fimian (R); surveyed 300 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 5/25). Tested: Fimian and Fairfax Co. Supv. Pat Herrity.

Primary Election Matchup
K. Fimian   36%
P. Herrity 23
Undec 41

Fav/Unfav
K. Fimian   52%/10%
P. Herrity 47 /18

Governor 2010

Alabama
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/17-19; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsamples of 400 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margins of error for each +/- 4.9% (release, 5/24). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 43%R, 37%D, 20%I. Tested: Rep. Artur Davis (D-07), Ag. Commis. Ron Sparks (D), state Rep. Robert Bentley (R), AL Commun. College Chancellor/ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R), '02 candidate/businessman Tim James (R), ex-AL Econ. Dev. dir./ex-Birmingham City Councilor Bill Johnson (R) and '06 candidate/ex-AL Chief Justice Roy Moore (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom Wht Blk
A. Davis 41% 37% 45% 36% 54%
R. Sparks 33 39 27 38 20
Other 8 9 7 10 2
Undec 11 15 21 16 24

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-           All Men Wom
B. Byrne 29% 31% 27%
R. Moore 23 24 22
T. James 17 16 18
R. Bentley 9 9 9
B. Johnson 3 4 2
Other 2 2 2
Undec 17 14 20

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
B. Byrne 48% 12% 80% 47% 52% 44% 61% 4%
A. Davis 31 62 6 27 28 34 18 74
Other 7 4 7 13 8 6 9 1
Undec 14 22 7 13 12 16 12 21

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
T. James 45% 11% 75% 44% 49% 41% 57% 3%
A. Davis 37 73 6 36 34 40 24 81
Other 8 5 7 15 8 8 10 1
Undec 10 11 12 5 9 11 9 15

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
R. Moore 43% 10% 73% 42% 47% 39% 55% 3%
A. Davis 38 74 7 37 35 41 25 82
Other 9 5 9 16 9 9 11 1
Undec 10 11 11 5 9 11 9 14

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
B. Byrne 45% 11% 75% 44% 49% 41% 57% 4%
R. Sparks 34 65 8 32 33 35 23 72
Other 9 7 8 16 9 9 11 1
Undec 12 17 9 8 9 25 9 23

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
T. James 44% 9% 75% 43% 48% 40% 56% 3%
R. Sparks 38 74 7 37 35 41 25 81
Other 19 7 9 17 11 9 13 1
Undec 8 10 9 3 6 10 6 15

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
R. Moore 41% 8% 71% 40% 45% 37% 52% 3%
R. Sparks 40 76 9 39 37 43 27 83
Other 12 8 12 19 13 11 15 1
Undec 7 8 8 2 5 9 6 13

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
B. Byrne 47%/25% 21%/44% 69%/ 9% 50%/20% 51%/22% 43%/28%
R. Moore 45 /36 17 /60 67 /17 48 /33 49 /33 41 /39
A. Davis 44 /40 72 /17 21 /60 42 /41 42 /43 46 /37
T. James 43 /33 14 /57 66 /13 47 /30 45 /31 14 /57
R. Sparks 42 /38 64 /16 22 /57 42 /40 40 /40 44 /36

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-           All     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
A. Davis 55%/22% 52%/26% 58%/18% 51%/28% 67%/ 4%
R. Sparks 42 /30 47 /27 37 /33 48 /29 26 /33

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-           All     Men     Wom
B. Byrne 53%/14% 56%/12% 50%/16%
R. Moore 44 /21 47 /19 41 /23
T. James 41 /17 43 /16 39 /18

Arkansas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/19; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/24). Tested: Gov. Mike Beebe (D) and '90 AR-02 nominee/restaurateur/ex-state Sen. Jim Keet (R).

General Election Matchup
M. Beebe    53%
J. Keet 38
Other 1
Undec 7

Beebe As Gov.
-           Now 4/26 3/30 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28
Approve 72% 68% 74% 75% 73% 68% 67% 69%
Disapprove 28 30 25 22 24 29 28 30

Fav/Unfav
M. Beebe    68%/31%
J. Keet 47 /27

California
A KABC-TV/KPIX-TV/KGTV-TV/KFSN-TV poll; conducted 5/21-23 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 716 Dem primary LVs and 612 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 3.7% and 4.0%, respectively (release, 5/24). Tested: Businessman Richard Aguirre (D), AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), artist Lowell Darling (D), mechanical engineer Vibert Greene (D), Parole Board Judge Chuck Pineda Jr. (D), non-profit consultant Peter Schurman (D), non-profit pres. Joe Symmon (D), RR switchman Bill Chambers (R), ret. businessman Douglas Hughes (R), family broadcasting exec. Ken Miller (R), accountant Larry Naritelli (R), psychologist/farmer Robert Newman (R), Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R), physician David Tully-Smith (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-               All Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth 5/9 4/21
J. Brown 70% 72% 69% 73% 78% 67% 61% 66% 63%
C. Pineda 4 6 3 3 2 7 9 3 2
R. Aguirre 4 5 4 3 1 9 2 4 6
J. Symmon 2 3 2 3 1 3 0 3 3
V. Greene 2 2 2 1 1 3 0 1 1
L. Darling 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 6
P. Schurman 1 1 1 1 0 0 3 1 1
Undec 14 12 17 15 16 10 24 19 18

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-               All Men Wom 5/9 4/21
M. Whitman 54% 55% 52% 39% 49%
S. Poizner 27 28 26 37 27
L. Naritelli 2 3 2 1 2
D. Hughes 2 3 2 1 1
B. Chambers 2 1 3 3 2
K. Miller 2 1 3 2 1
R. Newman 1 1 1 2 2
D. Tully-Smith 1 0 2 1 1
Undec 9 7 10 14 15

Georgia
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/20; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/25). Tested: AG Thurbert Baker (D), ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R), Sec/State Karen Handel (R), ex-state Senate Pres. Pro Tem Eric Johnson (R) and Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 4/22 1/20
N. Deal 47% 47% 49%
T. Baker 30 31 32
Other 10 9 7
Undec 12 13 11

-            Now 4/22 3/17 2/17 1/20
N. Deal 47% 46% 43% 43% 42%
R. Barnes 40 39 40 37 43
Other 6 7 5 7 7
Undec 7 8 13 14 8

-            Now 4/22 1/20
K. Handel 43% 44% 46%
T. Baker 32 36 34
Other 10 5 8
Undec 14 15 11

-            Now 4/22 3/17 2/17 1/20
K. Handel 42% 42% 42% 45% 42%
R. Barnes 39 41 39 36 43
Other 9 7 5 5 5
Undec 10 10 14 14 10

-            Now 4/22
E. Johnson 42% 38%
T. Baker 30 35
Other 11 9
Undec 17 18

-            Now 4/22 3/17 2/17
R. Barnes 42% 42% 40% 37%
E. Johnson 38 37 38 37
Other 9 8 6 8
Undec 11 13 16 18

-            Now 4/22 1/20
J. Oxendine 50% 44% 50%
T. Baker 29 34 32
Other 9 9 8
Undec 12 13 10

-            Now 4/22 3/17 2/17 1/20
J. Oxendine 43% 45% 41% 45% 44%
R. Barnes 39 43 41 37 42
Other 11 6 6 7 6
Undec 7 6 11 10 8

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     4/22    3/17    2/17    1/20
J. Oxendine 57%/26% 51%/35% 53%/34% 58%/31% 59%/29%
R. Barnes 46 /42 47 /43 44 /43 48 /43 52 /38
N. Deal 45 /28 41 /27 39 /30 40 /27 44 /29
K. Handel 45 /29 48 /26 44 /32 53 /24 52 /24
T. Baker 37 /40 42 /39 n/a n/a 45 /33
E. Johnson 37 /28 29 /28 32 /27 36 /25 n/a

Kansas
A KWCH-TV poll; conducted 5/14-16 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/19).

Brownback As Sen.
-           Now 4/11 3/14 2/14 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27
Approve 48% 41% 50% 56% 51% 49% 57% 48% 54%
Disapprove 42 47 42 37 40 40 30 42 36

South Carolina
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/22-23; surveyed 410 Dem primary LVs and 638 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.8% and 3.9%, respectively (release, 5/25). Tested: State Sen. Robert Ford (D), Educ. Supt. Jim Rex (D), state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D), Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-03), LG André Bauer (R), state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and AG Henry McMaster (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-            All Men Wom Wht Blk Oth
V. Sheheen 36% 40% 31% 34% 37% 40%
J. Rex 30 31 30 32 28 30
R. Ford 11 15 7 8 15 10
Undec 23 13 33 26 20 20

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom
N. Haley 39% 39% 39%
H. McMaster 18 17 19
G. Barrett 16 15 17
A. Bauer 13 12 13
Undec 14 16 12

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-            All     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Oth
V. Sheheen 31%/11% 38%/11% 25%/12% 33%/13% 31%/ 9% 15%/20%
J. Rex 29 /19 27 /23 30 /14 36 /17 20 /22 25 /20

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-            All     Men     Wom
N. Haley 47%/13% 50%/14% 44%/13%
H. McMaster 43 /22 47 /26 40 /18
G. Barrett 28 /18 29 /20 28 /15
A. Bauer 26 /49 26 /48 25 /50

Sanford As Gov. (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom
Approve 51% 54% 46%
Disapprove 36 34 38

Senate 2010

Alabama
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/17-19; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsamples of 400 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margins of error for each +/- 4.9% (release, 5/24). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 43%R, 37%D, 20%I. Tested: Sen. Richard Shelby (R), N.C. "Clint" Moser (R), atty William Barnes (D) and teacher/soul singer Simone De Moore (D).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-            All Men Wom Wht Blk
W. Barnes 39% 42% 36% 42% 31%
S. De Moore 11 9 13 9 17
Other 3 4 2 4 0
Uncec 47 45 49 45 52

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom
R. Shelby 63% 64% 62%
C. Moser 14 16 12
Undec 23 20 26

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
R. Shelby 57% 22% 87% 58% 61% 53% 72% 5%
W. Barnes 33 66 6 29 32 34 22 71
Other 3 2 3 6 4 2 4 1
Undec 7 10 4 7 3 11 2 23

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
R. Shelby 62% 31% 88% 65% 66% 58% 79% 5%
S. De Moore 27 56 4 22 25 29 14 72
Other 3 2 3 5 3 3 4 0
Undec 8 11 5 8 6 10 3 23

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
R. Shelby 61%/31% 38%/57% 77%/11% 69%/25% 65%/28% 57%/34%
W. Barnes 40 /32 62 /11 22 /50 40 /31 38 /35 42 /29
S. De Moore 23 / 9 45 / 5 6 /12 19 /10 22 / 9 24 / 9

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-            All     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
W. Barnes 46%/17% 49%/15% 43%/19% 49%/15% 39%/22%
S. De Moore 21 / 6 19 / 7 23 / 5 19 / 8 27 / 1

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-            All     Men     Wom
R. Shelby 63%/28% 65%/27% 61%/29%
C. Moser 12 /15 15 /13 9 /17

California
A KABC-TV/KPIX-TV/KGTV-TV/KFSN-TV poll; conducted 5/21-23 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 716 Dem primary LVs and 612 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 3.7% and 4.0%, respectively (release, 5/24). Tested: '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R), ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R), Tim Kalemkarian (R) and businessman Al Ramirez (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-               All Men Wom 5/9 4/21
C. Fiorina 46% 45% 47% 24% 27%
T. Campbell 23 26 21 35 34
C. DeVore 14 15 12 15 14
T. Kalemkarian 4 3 4 3 3
A. Ramirez 2 2 3 n/a n/a
Undec 11 9 14 23 23

A KABC-TV/KPIX-TV/KGTV-TV/KFSN-TV poll; conducted 5/14-16 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/19).

Boxer As Sen.
-           Now 4/11 3/14 2/14 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/29 8/27
Approve 40% 41% 40% 47% 48% 39% 43% 41% 46%
Disapprove 51 47 50 43 45 49 47 48 44

Georgia
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/20; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/25). Tested: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) and Labor Commis. Michael Thurmond (D).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 4/22
J. Isakson 57% 51%
M. Thurmond 30 35
Other 6 6
Undec 8 8

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     4/22    3/17
J. Isakson 60%/27% 60%/27% 61%/26%
M. Thurmond 46 /27 45 /32 n/a

Kansas
A KCTV-TV/KWCH-TV poll; conducted 5/21-23 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 522 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 5/24). Tested: Ex-AG Robert Londerholm and Reps. Jerry Moran (01) and Todd Tiahrt (04).

Primary Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom 3/28 1/31 12/6 10/4 8/9
J. Moran 52% 54% 48% 42% 40% 37% 43% 38%
T. Tiahrt 29 28 31 32 33 34 27 32
R. Londerholm 4 5 3 5 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 15 13 18 21 27 29 30 40

New York
A WABC-TV poll; conducted 5/14-16; surveyed 600 adults by SurveyUSA (IVR); margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/19).

Gillibrand As Sen.
-           Now 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/09 4/09
Approve 41% 36% 35% 41% 39% 41% 40% 41% 36%
Disapprove 44 44 45 42 39 40 32 37 39

A WABC-TV poll; conducted 5/14-16; surveyed 600 adults by SurveyUSA (IVR); margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/19).

Schumer As Sen.
-           Now 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/09 4/09
Approve 64% 57% 60% 65% 59% 58% 62% 63% 62%
Disapprove 31 37 30 26 35 36 30 30 31

Oregon
A KATU-TV poll; conducted 5/14-16 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/19).

Wyden As Sen.
-           Now 4/11 3/14 2/14 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27
Approve 51% 51% 49% 50% 53% 53% 51% 55% 56%
Disapprove 39 35 41 37 40 40 40 32 35

Washington
A Univ. of WA poll; conducted 5/3-23; surveyed 1,252 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 5/24). Tested: Sen. Patty Murray (D) and '04/'08 GOV nominee Dino Rossi (R).

General Election Matchups
P. Murray      44%
D. Rossi 40
Other 3
Undec 12

P. Murray      42%
Generic GOPer 39
Other 4
Undec 14

Murray As Sen.
Approve        51%
Disapprove 34

A KATU-TV/KING-TV poll; conducted 5/14-16 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/19).

Murray As Sen.
-           Now 4/11 3/14 2/14 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27
Approve 47% 46% 42% 43% 55% 52% 47% 48% 47%
Disapprove 46 48 45 50 39 40 45 41 43

Pew Research Center

Oil Spill/Energy
A Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Cong. Connection poll; conducted 5/20-23 by Pew Research Center; surveyed 1,002 adults; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 5/25). Party ID breakdown: 32%D, 23%R, 36%I.

Obama Admin. Responding To The Gulf Coast Oil Leak
-               All Dem GOP Ind
Excellent/good 31% 48% 13% 27%
Only fair/poor 57 42 80 59

Do You Think The Dem Party/GOP Could Do A Better Job ___?
-                            DemParty GOP Both Neither Undec
Dealing with the nation's
energy problems 35% 28% 10% 12% 15%
Dealing with the economy 34 33 9 14 10
Reducing the budget deficit 30 33 8 16 12
Dealing with immigration 27 35 10 14 14
Dealing with terrorist
threat at home 27 38 12 10 13

CNN Research Corps

Oil Spill
Conducted 5/21-23; surveyed 1,023 adults; margin of error +/- 3.1% (releases, 5/24-25).

How Do You Feel About Increased Drilling For Oil And Natural Gas Offshore In U.S. Waters? (Half Sample)
-               Now 8/08 7/08 6/08
Strongly favor 27% 52% 46% 48%
Mildly favor 30 22 23 25
Mildly oppose 16 11 12 15
Strongly oppose 25 13 18 12

Obama Handling Oil Spill
Approve     46%
Disapprove 51

Monday, May 24, 2010

House 2010

ID-01
An Idaho Statesman/KBOI-TV poll; conducted 5/17-19 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research; surveyed 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/24). Tested: State Rep. Raul Labrador, '08 McCain NV dir./vet Vaughn Ward and Harley Brown.

Primary Election Matchup
V. Ward      31%
R. Labrador 28
H. Brown 4
Undec 37

ID-02
An Idaho Statesman/KBOI-TV poll; conducted 5/17-19 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research; surveyed 300 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 5/24). Tested: Rep. Mike Simpson, Katherine Burton, businessman/activist Chick Heileson and state Rep. Russ Mathews.

Primary Election Matchup
M. Simpson   62%
C. Heileson 6
R. Mathews 5
K. Burton 1
Undec 23

Governor 2010

California
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/17-19 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/21). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 41%D, 31%R, 28%I. Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

Primary Election Matchups (GOPers)
-           All Men Wom 3/10
M. Whitman 46% 41% 51% 52%
S. Poizner 36 42 30 19
Undec 18 17 19 29

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/10 8/12
J. Brown 46% 78% 7% 42% 41% 51% 45% 42%
M. Whitman 42 10 84 43 48 36 41 36
Undec 12 12 9 15 11 13 14 22

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/10 8/12
J. Brown 47% 79% 8% 43% 41% 53% 48% 43%
S. Poizner 37 8 78 38 44 30 33 34
Undec 16 13 14 19 15 17 19 23

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/10    8/12
J. Brown 48%/43% 78%/16% 11%/81% 45%/41% 52%/40% 48%/37%
M. Whitman 47 /38 25 /58 75 /13 49 /35 51 /35 41 /30
S. Poizner 39 /43 18 /61 68 /20 39 /42 37 /40 35 /27

Florida
A St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9/Central Florida News 13 poll; conducted 5/14-18 by Ipsos Public Affairs; surveyed 607 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (releases, 5/22-24). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R), CFO Alex Sink (D), state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) and businessman Rick Scott (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
B. McCollum  46%
R. Scott 22
P. Dockery 3
Other 1
Not vote 4
Undec 25

General Election Matchup
-            All Dem GOP Ind
B. McCollum 34% 11% 65% 26%
A. Sink 32 61 10 26
Other 4 2 4 5
Not vote 4 2 2 12
Undec 26 24 19 31

Idaho
An Idaho Statesman/KBOI-TV poll; conducted 5/17-19 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research; surveyed 625 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 5/24). Tested: Gov. Butch Otter, '02/'06 candidate/anti-abortion activist Walt Bayes, ret. systems analyst/comedian Ron "Pete" Peterson, '08 indie SEN candidate/ex-elk rancher Rex Rammell, Ada Co. Commis. Sharon Ullman and hair salon owner Tamara Wells.

Primary Election Matchup
B. Otter     60%
R. Rammell 6
S. Ullman 4
R. Peterson 3
W. Bayes 1
T. Wells 1
Undec 25

New York
A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 5/17-20; surveyed 905 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 5/24). Tested: AG Andrew Cuomo (D), developer Carl Paladino (R), '00 SEN nominee/JPMorgan exec. VP/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) and Suffolk Co. Exec. Steve Levy (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom 4/15 3/18
R. Lazio 29% 36% 23% 29% 45%
C. Paladino 16 17 15 13 n/a
S. Levy 14 11 16 15 16
Undec 41 25 46 43 40

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind 4/15 3/18 3/7 2/19 1/14 12/9
A. Cuomo 66% 84% 37% 59% 61% 59% 63% 63% 66% 68%
R. Lazio 24 8 55 27 24 21 25 26 24 22
Others n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 10 8 8 14 16 17 11 11 10 10

-            All Dem GOP Ind 4/15 3/18
A. Cuomo 65% 81% 44% 58% 58% 63%
S. Levy 22 8 43 26 23 16
Others n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4
Undec 13 10 13 16 19 17

-            All Dem GOP Ind 4/15
A. Cuomo 65% 80% 42% 59% 64%
C. Paladino 22 8 46 26 19
Undec 13 12 12 15 16

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/15    3/18
A. Cuomo 67%/21% 76%/12% 58%/30% 60%/29% 66%/18% 63%/22%
R. Lazio 31 /29 26 /38 37 /17 35 /25 29 /25 29 /27
S. Levy 21 /12 21 /12 17 /14 26 / 8 21 /16 16 /16
C. Paladino 15 /10 13 /11 19 / 7 15 / 8 11 /13 n/a

Pennsylvania
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/19; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/21). Tested: AG Tom Corbett (R) and Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 4/15 3/16 2/10 12/10
T. Corbett 49% 45% 46% 52% 44%
D. Onorato 36 36 29 26 28
Other 4 8 7 5 7
Undec 10 11 17 17 21

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/15    3/16    2/10    12/10
T. Corbett 57%/26% 56%/29% 59%/33% 67%/15% 59%/18%
D. Onorato 46 /32 41 /32 36 /36 34 /35 30 /32

Senate 2010

California
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/17-19 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/21). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 41%D, 31%R, 28%I. Tested: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO/McCain Victory '08 chair Carly Fiorina (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom 3/10
T. Campbell 37% 41% 33% 33%
C. Fiorina 22 17 27 24
C. DeVore 14 18 10 7
Undec 27 24 30 36

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/10
B. Boxer 47% 80% 7% 42% 41% 53% 47%
T. Campbell 40 9 82 40 46 34 43
Undec 13 11 11 18 13 13 10

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/10 8/12
B. Boxer 47% 80% 7% 43% 41% 53% 49% 53%
C. DeVore 38 7 80 38 44 32 39 29
Undec 15 13 13 19 15 15 12 18

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/10 8/12
B. Boxer 48% 82% 7% 43% 42% 54% 49% 52%
C. Fiorina 39 8 81 39 45 33 40 31
Undec 13 10 12 18 13 13 11 17

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/10    8/12
B. Boxer 49%/42% 73%/17% 18%/77% 48%/40% 50%/45% 49%/43%
T. Campbell 43 /42 21 /64 71 /15 44 /41 46 /37 38 /29
C. Fiorina 40 /43 17 /66 68 /14 41 /44 35 /43 22 /29
C. DeVore 38 /44 15 /66 68 /13 40 /45 34 /42 21 /27

Connecticut
A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll; conducted 5/19-20 for AG Dick Blumenthal (D); surveyed 602 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/24). Tested: Blumenthal and ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R).

General Election Matchup
R. Blumenthal  55%
L. McMahon 40

Fav/Unfav
R. Blumenthal  55%/28%

Florida
A St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9/Central Florida News 13 poll; conducted 5/14-18 by Ipsos Public Affairs; surveyed 607 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (releases, 5/22-24). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (I), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17), ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), ex-Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre (D) and developer/financier Jeff Greene (D).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
K. Meek    33%
M. Ferre 10
J. Greene 9
Other 3
Not vote 4
Undec 41

General Election Matchup
-          All Dem GOP Ind
C. Crist 30% 38% 26% 39%
M. Rubio 27 8 51 12
K. Meek 15 33 3 7
Other 2 1 1 9
Not vote 3 2 0 5
Undec 23 18 19 29

Does Crist Leaving The GOP And Running As An Indie Make You More/Less Likely Top Vote For Him, Or Has It Not Changed Your View Of Him?
-                                            All Dem GOP Ind
More likely 24% 36% 12% 26%
Less likely 21 11 35 10
Not changed/wld vote for him in any case 25 28 23 29
Not changed/wldn't vote for him in any case 17 16 20 0

As You May Know, FL's State Legislature Has Passed A New Bill That Would Require Ultrasound Tests For Pregnant Women Seeking Abortions In The First Trimester. The Woman Would Be Required To Pay For The Ultrasound And Look At The Image Or Listen To A Description Of The Image On The Ultrasound. The New Bill Would Also Mean That The Woman's Insurance Would Not Cover The Abortion If Her Employer Accepts Any Gov't Funds. Do You Believe That Crist Should Veto This Bill Or Allow This Bill To Pass Into Law?
-      All Dem GOP Ind
Veto 55% 60% 47% 72%
Pass 31 26 40 26
Undec 14 14 12 2

As You May Know, Crist Recently Vetoed The Teacher Tenure Bill That Was Approved By GOPers In The FL House And Senate. This Bill Would Have Replaced Multi-Year Contracts For New Teachers With Annual Evaluations. Do You Agree/Disagree With Crist's Decision To Veto The Bill?
-              All Dem GOP Ind
Agree 53% 54% 51% 60%
Disagree 29 29 32 26
Neither/undec 19 17 17 14

New York
A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 5/17-20; surveyed 905 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 5/24). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), '98 Comp. nominee/ex-Nassau Co. legislator/ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R), ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R) and ex-Giuliani aide/ex-Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom 4/15
J. DioGuardi 15% 15% 14% 24%
B. Blakeman 8 12 4 7
D. Malpass 4 3 5 5
Undec 74 70 76 65

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/15 3/18 2/19
K. Gillibrand 51% 71% 22% 44% 50% 52% 46% 48% 51%
B. Blakeman 24 9 50 28 28 21 26 24 24
Undec 25 20 28 28 22 27 28 28 25

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/15
K. Gillibrand 51% 70% 23% 46% 50% 52% 46%
J. DioGuardi 25 8 54 30 29 22 27
Undec 24 22 24 24 21 26 27

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/15
K. Gillibrand 53% 73% 21% 47% 53% 52% 46%
D. Malpass 22 6 50 26 25 20 24
Undec 25 21 29 27 22 28 30

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/15
K. Gillibrand 42%/24% 47%/18% 34%/34% 38%/27% 34%/25%
J. DioGuardi 10 / 8 9 / 7 12 / 5 12 /10 10 / 8
B. Blakeman 6 / 6 6 / 6 6 / 4 5 / 8 6 / 6
D. Malpass 5 / 6 6 / 6 5 / 4 3 / 8 5 / 5

Elect Gillibrand?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/15 3/18 2/19 1/14
Elect her 36% 46% 24% 27% 37% 34% 27% 28% 30% 29%
Prefer another 38 27 54 41 40 36 40 38 40 45
Undec 27 26 22 32 23 30 33 34 30 26

A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 5/17-20; surveyed 905 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 5/24). Tested: Sen. Chuck Schumer (D), ex-CIA operative Gary Berntsen (R), Nassau Co. Comp. George Maragos (R), '08 Assemb. candidate/businessman James Staudenraus (R) and GOP consultant Jay Townsend (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-               All Men Wom Wht Blk His 11/12
C. Schumer 78% 83% 75% 76% 86% 89% 83%
R. Credico 11 11 11 14 4 5 9
Undec 11 6 14 10 11 5 8

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-               All Men Wom
J. Townsend 10% 12% 10%
G. Maragos 5 3 6
G. Berntsen 3 6 1
J. Staudenraus 1 1 1
Undec 81 78 83

General Election Matchups
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Schumer 64% 83% 35% 58% 62% 66%
G. Berntsen 23 7 49 26 29 18
Undec 13 10 16 17 10 16

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Schumer 65% 83% 35% 59% 62% 67%
G. Maragos 22 7 51 23 28 17
Undec 13 10 14 17 10 16

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Schumer 65% 84% 35% 57% 62% 67%
J. Staudenraus 21 7 47 23 26 17
Undec 14 9 18 20 11 16

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Schumer 63% 82% 35% 54% 60% 66%
J. Townsend 24 9 51 27 31 18
Undec 13 9 14 19 9 16

Fav/Unfav
-               All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/18
C. Schumer 64%/27% 77%/15% 47%/41% 54%/35% 62%/27%
J. Townsend 9 / 7 11 / 8 6 / 6 8 / 7 n/a
G. Maragos 6 / 6 7 / 5 2 / 6 7 / 6 n/a
R. Credico 4 / 6 5 / 5 2 / 6 3 / 9 n/a
J. Staudenraus 3 / 4 2 / 4 3 / 5 3 / 4 n/a
G. Berntsen 3 / 5 4 / 4 2 / 4 2 / 9 n/a

Re-Elect Schumer?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/18 2/19
Re-elect him 52% 69% 35% 38% 51% 53% 56% 55%
Prefer another 35 20 50 49 39 32 31 36
Undec 13 11 15 13 10 15 13 9

North Dakota
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/18-19; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/24). Tested: Gov. John Hoeven (R) and state Sen. Tracy Potter (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 4/20 3/23 2/10
J. Hoeven 72% 69% 68% 71%
T. Potter 23 24 25 17
Other 2 2 2 4
Undec 3 5 5 8

Hoeven As Gov.
-           Now 4/20 12/15
Approve 87% 83% 87%
Disapprove 12 15 11

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/20    3/23    2/10    12/15
J. Hoeven 85%/12% 82%/16% 83%/14% 83%/12% 82%/15%
T. Potter 38 /33 43 /31 40 /29 37 /32 n/a

Friday, May 21, 2010

Fox News/Opinion 2010

Offshore Drilling
Conducted 5/18-19; surveyed 900 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 5/20). Party ID breakdown: 39%D, 35%R, 20%I.

Obama Admin. Dealing With The Gulf Coast Oil Spill
-           All Dem GOP Ind 5/5
Approve 44% 55% 40% 33% 50%
Disapprove 36 28 42 40 29

Do You Favor/Oppose Increasing Offshore Drilling For Oil And Gas In U.S. Coastal Areas?
-       All Dem GOP Ind 5/5 4/7
Favor 54% 42% 68% 49% 60% 70%
Oppose 38 51 25 40 33 22

House 2010

CT-04
A Wilson Research Strategies (R) poll; conducted 5/19-20 for Easton Selectman/Private Equity Investment Co. Managing Dir. Tom Herrmann (R); surveyed 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/21). Tested: Hermann, state Sen. Dan Debicella, businessman Rob Merkle and businessman/ex-Bridgeport mayoral candidate Rick Torres.

Primary Election Matchup
T. Herrmann   16%
D. Debicella 8
R. Torres 6
R. Merkle 5
Undec 64

ND-AL
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/18-19; surveyed 500 Lvs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/21). Tested: Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) and state Rep. Rick Berg (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 4/20 3/24 2/10
R. Berg 52% 49% 51% 46%
E. Pomeroy 43 45 44 40
Other 2 2 1 3
Undec 3 4 4 11

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/20    3/24    2/10
R. Berg 56%/27% 53%/28% 56%/22% n/a
E. Pomeroy 49 /50 51 /48 48 /49 48%/46%

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/21). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer (R), Treas. Dean Martin (R), NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills (R), ex-state GOP Chair John Munger (R) and '90 nominee/AG Terry Goddard (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 4/27 4/15 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24
J. Brewer 52% 48% 44% 36% 41% 35% 35%
T. Goddard 39 40 40 45 43 44 42
Other 7 7 9 12 7 9 13
Undec 3 5 6 7 9 12 11

-           Now 4/15 3/16 1/20 11/18
D. Martin 41% 47% 43% 44% 38%
T. Goddard 40 34 38 35 40
Other 8 8 6 6 11
Undec 10 11 13 14 11

-           Now 4/15 3/16
B. Mills 45% 46% 43%
T. Goddard 38 37 37
Other 7 8 7
Undec 10 9 13

-           Now 4/15 3/16
T. Goddard 42% 37% 42%
J. Munger 41 44 36
Other 11 10 13
Undec 7 9 9

Brewer As Gov.
-           Now 4/27 4/15 4/13 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24 7/21 5/09
Approve 64% 56% 40% 48% 41% 37% 39% 37% 48% 51%
Disapprove 35 42 56 51 55 60 57 57 48 45

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/15    3/16    1/20    11/18   9/24
J. Brewer 60%/36% 45%/50% 38%/57% 42%/53% 44%/48% 42%/54%
D. Martin 50 /29 43 /31 47 /23 43 /28 41 /27 n/a
B. Mills 48 /29 41 /31 35 /25 n/a n/a n/a
T. Goddard 48 /45 49 /44 54 /31 54 /32 51 /35 54 /38
J. Munger 32 /34 28 /37 33 /27 n/a n/a n/a

Arkansas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/19; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/21).

Beebe As Gov.
-           Now 4/26 3/30 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28
Approve 72% 68% 74% 75% 73% 68% 67% 69%
Disapprove 28 30 25 22 24 29 28 30

South Carolina
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/17; surveyed 404 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/21). Tested: State Sen. Robert Ford, Educ. Supt. Jim Rex and state Sen. Vincent Sheheen.

Primary Election Matchup
V. Sheheen  30%
J. Rex 22
R. Ford 4
Other 12
Undec 32

Fav/Unfav
V. Sheheen  46%/14%
J. Rex 44 /20
R. Ford 29 /24

Obama As POTUS
Approve     87%
Disapprove 13

Sanford As Gov.
Approve     24%
Disapprove 72

Senate 2010

Arkansas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/19; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/21). Tested: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), LG Bill Halter (D) and Rep. John Boozman (R-03).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 4/26 3/30 3/1 2/1
J. Boozman 66% 57% 51% 48% 54%
B. Lincoln 28 29 36 39 35
Other 2 9 6 6 4
Undec 4 5 7 7 7

-           Now 4/26 3/30 3/1
J. Boozman 60% 56% 48% 52%
B. Halter 33 31 34 33
Other 4 7 8 6
Undec 3 7 11 9

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/26    3/30    3/1     2/1     1/5
J. Boozman 64%/28% 58%/24% 47%/25% 51%/27% 51%/24% n/a
B. Halter 41 /50 48 /42 47 /40 48 /34 n/a n/a
B. Lincoln 28 /71 31 /63 37 /61 41 /52 36 /59 38%/56%

Pennsylvania
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/19; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/20). Tested: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and ex-Rep./ex-Club for Growth Pres. Pat Toomey (R).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 5/6 4/12 3/15 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11 6/16
J. Sestak 46% 40% 36% 37% 35% 35% 38% 38% 35% 41%
P. Toomey 42 42 47 42 43 43 44 37 43 35
Other 3 10 5 7 7 6 6 6 5 7
Undec 9 9 12 15 15 16 13 19 18 18

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/6     4/12    3/15    2/8     1/18
P. Toomey 56%/25% 51%/36% 54%/29% 53%/33% 57%/28% 57%/27%
J. Sestak 52 /33 50 /37 38 /39 40 /38 33 /42 37 /37
 
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