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Friday, May 29, 2009

Polling Update: Governor 2009: NJ

New Jersey Governor 2009

A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/25-27 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/28). Party ID Breakdown: 27%D, 14%R, 59%I. Tested: Gov. Jon Corzine (D), ex-U.S. atty Christopher Christie (R) and '05 candidate/ex-Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan (R).

General Election Matchups
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk His
C. Christie 46% 50% 42% 16% 85% 51% 56% 5% 31%
J. Corzine 39 37 41 73 6 31 32 66 55
Undec 15 13 17 11 9 18 12 29 14

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk His
S. Lonegan 43% 47% 39% 13% 82% 48% 53% 4% 27%
J. Corzine 40 37 43 76 6 32 33 67 55
Undec 17 16 18 11 12 20 14 29 18

Fav/Unfav
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
C. Christie 38%/15% 41%/13% 35%/17% 20%/29% 69%/ 6% 39%/11%
J. Corzine 36 /55 33 /59 39 /51 66 /23 9 /84 29 /63
S. Lonegan 22 /13 25 /11 19 /15 4 /26 52 / 5 23 / 9


A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/27; surveyed 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/28). Tested: Christie and Lonegan.


Primary Election Matchup
- Now 5/12
C. Christie 46% 39%
S. Lonegan 35 29
Other 4 3
Undec 15 29

Fav/Unfav
- Now 5/12
C. Christie 70%/22% 75%/12%
S. Lonegan 62 /28 71 /16
J. Corzine 15 /83 na

Corzine As Gov.
Approve 15%
Disapprove 84

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Polling Update: Senate 2010 - KY, PA: Governor 2010 - MI, RI

Kentucky Senate 2010

A Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) poll; conducted 5/12-13 for '04 nominee/LG Dan Mongiardo (D); surveyed 336 Dem RVs; margin of error +/- 5.3% (McArdle, Roll Call, 5/28).

Tested: Mongiardo and AG Jack Conway (D).
Primary Election      Matchup
D. Mongiardo 43%
J. Conway 28
Undec 29

Pennsylvania Senate 2010

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 5/20-26; surveyed 1,191 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.8%. Subsamples of 517 GOPers and 561 Dems; margins of error +/- 4.3% and +/- 4.1%, respectively (release, 5/28). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07), '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R), Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-06) and '90 GOV candidate/'94/'98 Const. Party GOV nominee Margaret "Peg" Luksik (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom
A. Specter 50% 51% 48%
J. Sestak 21 20 21
Other 1 -- 1
Not vote 2 3 1
Undec 27 26 28

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
P. Toomey 38% 47% 30%
J. Gerlach 10 10 10
P. Luksik 3 4 2
Other -- -- --
Not vote 2 3 1
Undec 47 36 56

General Election Matchups
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 5/3
A. Specter 46% 16% 73% 43% 47% 45% 53%
P. Toomey 37 73 10 33 39 35 33
Other 1 1 1 1 2 -- 2
Not vote 3 1 3 4 1 4 1
Undec 14 10 13 19 12 15 10

- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
A. Specter 45% 12% 75% 43% 46% 45%
J. Gerlach 36 73 9 31 36 35
Other 1 -- -- 2 1 --
Not vote 3 1 3 5 2 4
Undec 15 13 13 18 15 16

- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
J. Sestak 37% 5% 68% 32% 37% 38%
P. Toomey 35 72 8 34 40 32
Other 1 1 2 1 1 1
Not vote 3 2 3 4 2 3
Undec 23 20 20 28 20 26

- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
J. Sestak 36% 6% 65% 30% 36% 36%
J. Gerlach 30 61 8 25 31 29
Other 1 -- 1 1 1 1
Not vote 3 2 3 6 3 4
Undec 30 30 23 38 29 31

Fav/Unfav
- All GOP Dem Ind 5/3 3/23
A. Specter 46%/39% 18%/69% 70%/14% 46%/42% 52%/34% 45%/31%
P. Toomey 27 /11 45 / 3 14 /17 24 /12 20 /13 14 / 6
J. Sestak 18 / 5 10 / 7 27 / 3 17 / 5 na na
J. Gerlach 15 / 5 22 / 2 11 / 8 15 / 7 na na
P. Luksik 6 / 4 7 / 4 5 / 4 8 / 3 na na

Specter As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 5/3 3/23 2/9 11/26 8/5
Approve 51% 23% 74% 49% 49% 53% 56% 52% 56% 62% 59%
Disapprove 39 70 16 41 43 37 36 33 30 25 29

Casey As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 5/3 3/23 2/9 11/26 8/5
Approve 56% 41% 68% 59% 56% 57% 55% 52% 54% 55% 47%
Disapprove 21 34 12 20 23 19 21 23 23 20 25

Does Specter Deserve To Be Reelected?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 5/3 3/23 2/9
Yes, deserves 42% 18% 64% 38% 42% 42% 49% 38% 40%
No, does not 43 73 18 46 45 41 41 41 43
Undec 15 10 18 16 12 18 10 20 17

At Age 79, Do You Think Specter Is Too Old To Effectively Serve Another 6-Year Term As Sen.?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 5/3 3/23
Yes 43% 51% 36% 46% 43% 43% 37% 41%
No 52 45 59 48 53 50 60 54

Do You Think Specter/Toomey Is Too Liberal/Too Conservative/About Right?
- Specter Toomey
- All GOP Dem Ind 6/04 All GOP Dem Ind
Too liberal 30% 59% 8% 25% 22% 4% 4% 5% 3%
Too conserv. 9 5 12 9 17 15 5 22 16
About right 45 19 66 45 45 32 53 19 27



Michigan Governor 2010


A WXYZ-TV/Detroit News poll; conducted 5/18-21 by EPIC-MRA; surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversamples of 400 Dems and 400 GOPers; margin of error for each +/- 4.9% (release, 5/27). Tested: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), LG John Cherry (D), Wayne Co. Exec. Bob Ficano (D), '02 LG candidate/state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D), ex-MSU head football coach George Perles (D), ex-Flint Mayor Don Williamson (D), state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D), ex-state Rep. John Freeman (D), Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-02), AG Mike Cox (R), Sec/State Terri Lynn Land (R), Domino's CEO David Brandon (R), state Sen. Tom George (R) and ex-business exec. Rick Snyder (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
D. Stabenow 49%
J. Cherry 14
B. Ficano 5
A. W. Smith 2
G. Perles 2
D. Williamson 1
A. Dillon 1
J. Freeman --
Undec 26

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
P. Hoekstra 27%
M. Cox 26
T. L. Land 19
D. Brandon 2
T. Geoge 1
R. Snyder --
Undec 25

General Election Matchups
D. Stabenow 44%
P. Hoekstra 35
Undec 21

D. Stabenow 43%
M. Cox 35
Undec 22

D. Stabenow 44%
T. L. Land 35
Undec 21

J. Cherry 36%
P. Hoekstra 33
Undec 31

J. Cherry 36%
M. Cox 35
Undec 29

T. L. Land 35%
J. Cherry 34
Undec 31

P. Hoekstra 35%
B. Ficano 34
Undec 31

M. Cox 37%
B. Ficano 30
Undec 33

T. L. Land 37%
B. Ficano 30
Undec 33


Rhode Island

A Brown Univ. poll; conducted 5/18-20; surveyed 593 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/27).

Roberts As LG
- Now 2/10
Excellent/good 22% 21%
Only fair/poor 36 35

Lynch As AG
- Now 2/10
Excellent/good 47% 48%
Only fair/poor 39 40

Caprio As Treas.
- Now 2/10
Excellent/good 41% 35%
Only fair/poor 24 33

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Polling Update: 2010 CT Governor & Senate

Connecticut Senate 2010

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 5/20-25; surveyed 1,575 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsamples of 614 Dems and 385 GOPers; margins of error +/- 4.0% and +/- 5.0%, respectively (release, 5/27). Tested: Sen. Chris Dodd (D), businessman/ex-USAF officer Merrick Alpert (D), ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R) and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom
C. Dodd 44% 50% 40%
M. Alpert 24 23 24
Other 1 1 1
Not vote 2 3 1
Undec 30 23 34

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
R. Simmons 48% 57% 39%
S. Caligiuri 10 9 10
Other 1 1 1
Not vote 2 2 2
Undec 39 30 49

General Election Matchups
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 3/31 3/8
R. Simmons 45% 86% 16% 53% 49% 41% 50% 43%
C. Dodd 39 5 67 30 38 40 34 42
Other 2 -- 1 3 2 1 2 1
Not vote 1 -- 2 2 1 2 2 1
Undec 13 8 14 13 10 16 12 12

- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 3/31 3/8
C. Dodd 41% 7% 68% 32% 42% 40% 37% 47%
S. Caligiuri 39 83 11 45 42 36 41 34
Other 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 2
Not vote 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2
Undec 17 9 19 19 13 20 17 16

Favorable/Unfavorable
- All GOP Dem Ind 3/31 3/8
C. Dodd 37%/51% 8%/83% 57%/29% 31%/58% 30%/58% 46%/45%
R. Simmons 34 /12 52 / 3 20 /19 39 /10 39 /12 36 /10
S. Caligiuri 9 / 3 16 /-- 5 / 4 10 / 2 8 / 3 9 / 3
M. Alpert 4 / 2 1 /-- 7 / 2 4 / 2 na na

Dodd As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 3/31 3/8 2/8 12/17 7/1
Approve 38% 12% 58% 31% 37% 39% 33% 49% 41% 47% 51%
Disapprove 53 82 32 59 57 49 58 44 48 41 34

Lieberman As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 3/31 3/8 2/8 12/17 7/1
Approve 46% 68% 37% 45% 50% 44% 46% 46% 45% 38% 45%
Disapprove 44 24 53 44 42 46 47 46 48 54 43

Do You Think Dodd Should Run For Reelection?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Should 39% 18% 54% 35% 40% 38%
Should not 50 72 33 57 53 48

Would You Say Dodd ___?
- Now 3/31
- Yes No Yes No
Has strong leadership qualities 56% 35% 50% 43%
Pays attention to the needs of CT 50 41 na na
Cares abt needs/problems of people like you 42 47 39 52
Shares your views on issues you care about 37 48 na na
Is honest and trustworthy 35 49 32 54

Connecticut Governor 2010

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 5/20-25; surveyed 1,575 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5% (release, 5/27).

Rell As Gov.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 3/31 3/8 2/8 12/17 7/1
Approve 73% 83% 68% 74% 69% 76% 72% 75% 75% 68% 65%
Disapprove 20 13 23 20 23 17 22 19 19 20 23

The Way Things Are Going In CT Today
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 3/8 2/8 12/17 7/1 3/08
Satisfied 56% 48% 66% 52% 53% 58% 42% 41% 43% 41% 54%
Dissatisfied 42 49 34 45 44 40 57 59 55 59 44

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Polling Update: Senate 2010 - NY,NC; Governor 2010 - NY

Senate 2010 New York

A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 5/18-21; surveyed 622 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 5/26). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), Rep. Peter King (R-03) and ex-Gov. George Pataki (R).

General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 3/18 2/18
K. Gillibrand 48% 63% 28% 42% 47% 50% 49% 68% 33% 47% 40%
P. King 26 13 49 25 26 25 27 15 8 23 27
Undec 26 24 23 33 27 25 24 17 58 30 33

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 3/18
K. Gillibrand 43% 53% 27% 43% 40% 46% 44% 66% 24% 41%
G. Pataki 43 32 60 44 45 41 43 25 57 41
Undec 14 15 13 13 15 13 13 9 19 18

If Gillibrand Runs For Sen. In '10,
Would You Elect Her Or Would You Prefer Someone Else?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18
Elect her 27% 26% 31% 25% 28% 26% 30% 23% 11% 20% 23%
Prefer another 39 35 42 42 39 38 35 35 59 47 37
Undec 34 39 27 33 33 35 34 41 30 33 39

Reelect Schumer In '10?
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
Reelect him 61% 73% 47% 50% 61% 60% 59% 75% 57%
Prefer another 31 18 46 41 33 30 32 17 41
Undec 8 9 6 9 6 10 9 8 2

Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 4/15 3/18
C. Schumer 63%/25% 71%/13% 49%/40% 61%/33% na na
G. Pataki 53 /36 48 /40 63 /23 53 /40 49%/43% 49%/41%
K. Gillibrand 33 /21 31 /28 35 /19 34 /29 33 /23 26 /20

Senate 2010 North Carolina

A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 5/19-21; surveyed 798 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 5/26). Party ID Breakdown: 47%D, 32%R, 22%I. Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), Elizabeth Edwards (D), LG Walter Dalton (D), '02 candidate/state Sen./ex-state House Speaker Dan Blue (D), '08 GOV candidate/ex-Treas. Richard Moore (D), Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-02), Rep. Health Shuler (D-11) and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D).

General Election Matchups
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 46% 53% 40% 21% 79% 50% 53% 17%
E. Edwards 35 32 38 55 9 32 31 53
Undec 19 15 22 24 12 18 16 30

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 48% 57% 41% 22% 83% 52% 55% 22%
W. Dalton 29 30 29 50 3 24 25 45
Undec 22 13 30 28 13 24 20 32

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 44% 49% 39% 20% 77% 47% 51% 16%
D. Blue 33 36 31 52 10 26 28 49
Undec 23 15 30 28 13 27 20 35

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 47% 55% 40% 21% 82% 51% 55% 17%
R. Moore 34 31 37 57 7 26 28 58
Undec 19 14 23 22 12 24 17 25

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 47% 55% 41% 22% 83% 50% 56% 16%
B. Etheridge 31 29 32 52 4 25 25 53
Undec 22 16 27 26 13 26 19 31

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 1/18
R. Burr 44% 49% 40% 19% 80% 44% 52% 14% 39%
H. Shuler 28 28 27 45 5 24 24 44 28
Undec 28 23 33 36 15 32 25 42 32

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 2/15
R. Burr 42% 46% 38% 17% 76% 44% 49% 14% 46%
C. Cunningham 34 33 36 55 7 29 28 60 27
Undec 24 21 26 28 16 27 23 26 27

Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 1/18
R. Moore 36%/25% 51%/12% 18%/41% 30%/31% na
B. Etheridge 31 /27 50 /11 9 /48 21 /31 na
H. Shuler 25 /25 35 /13 11 /42 26 /25 21%/21%
W. Dalton 24 /29 39 /14 7 /45 17 /36 na
D. Blue 24 /31 41 /18 7 /45 14 /37 na


Governor 2010 New York

A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 5/18-21; surveyed 622 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 5/26). Tested: Gov. David Paterson (D), AG Andrew Cuomo (D), ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and '06 GOV nominee John Faso (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/23 12/11
A. Cuomo 70% 69% 71% 72% 58% 72% 64% 67% 53% 33% 26%
D. Paterson 19 24 16 19 28 19 11 17 27 35 49
Other/undec 11 7 13 9 14 9 25 17 20 33 25

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
R. Giuliani 78% 76% 80%
J. Faso 10 10 10
Undec 12 14 10

General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18
R. Giuliani 59% 47% 80% 57% 55% 62% 64% 28% 43% 56% 56%
D. Paterson 31 45 11 28 36 27 27 61 34 29 33
Undec 10 8 9 15 9 11 8 11 23 15 11

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18
A. Cuomo 53% 67% 28% 51% 52% 53% 49% 79% 63% 53% 51%
R. Giuliani 41 28 67 41 43 40 46 17 15 39 41
Undec 6 5 6 9 5 7 6 4 23 8 9

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
J. Faso 38% 24% 64% 37% 40% 36% 42% 18% 13%
D. Paterson 37 50 16 35 38 36 34 64 44
Undec 25 26 20 28 22 27 24 18 43

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
A. Cuomo 65% 79% 46% 60% 64% 67% 63% 84% 66%
J. Faso 16 7 33 16 19 13 17 4 17
Undec 19 15 21 24 17 20 20 13 17

If Paterson Runs For Gov. In '10,
Would You Elect Him Or Would You Prefer Someone Else?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18
Elect him 15% 15% 11% 17% 17% 13% 13% 33% 11% 12% 14%
Prefer another 71 68 79 67 68 73 72 49 76 71 67
Undec 15 16 11 16 15 15 15 18 13 17 19

Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 4/15 3/18
A. Cuomo 66%/20% 67%/14% 65%/25% 66%/24% 66%/18% 68%/17%
R. Giuliani 61 /35 50 /46 79 /16 61 /32 55 /41 58 /36
D. Paterson 27 /60 31 /57 20 /70 27 /57 27 /63 29 /58
J. Faso 15 /15 15 /13 12 /16 17 /16 na na

Paterson As Gov.
- Now 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/23 12/11 11/13 10/21 9/10
Excellent/good 18% 18% 19% 28% 51% 55% 55% 55% 51%
Fair/poor 81 81 78 69 45 40 41 40 37

Direction Of NY
- Now 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/23 12/11 11/13 10/21 9/30
Right dir. 33% 27% 30% 31% 39% 37% 39% 39% 35%
Wrong dir. 52 57 52 53 42 44 43 41 40

Would You Prefer To See Cuomo Run
For Reelection As AG Or For Gov.?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
For Gov. 47% 52% 38% 45% 46% 47% 44% 56% 70%
Reelect as AG 33 29 40 35 36 30 35 26 24

If You Got To Choose Who Should Be Gov. Today
Among The Current And Last Three Govs.,
Who Would You Like To See Be Gov. Today?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15
M. Cuomo 31% 37% 25% 26% 30% 32% 31% 40% 34% 39%
G. Pataki 30 23 45 26 32 28 32 12 20 33
E. Spitzer 21 24 12 24 23 20 21 18 22 14
D. Paterson 11 9 8 18 10 12 10 22 18 8
 
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