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Thursday, July 1, 2010

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/29; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 7/1). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) and '90 nominee/AG Terry Goddard (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 5/17 4/27 4/15 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24
J. Brewer 53% 52% 48% 44% 36% 41% 35% 35%
T. Goddard 35 39 40 40 45 43 44 42
Other 2 7 7 9 12 7 9 13
Undec 9 3 5 6 7 9 12 11

Brewer As Gov.
-           Now 5/17 4/27 4/15 4/13 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24 7/09
Approve 58% 64% 56% 40% 48% 41% 37% 39% 37% 48%
Disapprove 40 35 42 56 51 55 60 57 57 48

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/17    4/15    3/16    1/20    11/18
J. Brewer 59%/36% 60%/36% 45%/50% 38%/57% 42%/53% 44%/48%
T. Goddard 53 /37 48 /45 49 /44 54 /31 54 /32 51 /35

New Hampshire
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 6/26-29; surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsample of 551 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.2% (release, 6/30). Party ID breakdown (RVs): 29%D, 29%R, 42%I.

Lynch As Gov.
-           All RVs Dem GOP Ind 3/30 12/29 9/29 6/09 3/09
Approve 41% 43% 59% 33% 39% 49% 52% 37% 35% 47%
Disapprove 30 32 12 36 42 30 21 40 31 20

Lynch Handling Economy
-           All RVs Dem GOP Ind 3/30 12/29 9/29 6/09 3/09
Approve 40% 42% 59% 25% 42% 43% 45% 37% 30% 38%
Disapprove 30 31 18 36 36 35 26 34 41 24

Oregon
A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/28; surveyed 963 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 6/30). Tested: Ex-Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley (R) and ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D).

General Election Matchup
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Dudley 41% 15% 73% 41% 45% 37%
J. Kitzhaber 40 71 7 27 38 41
Other 10 7 12 14 11 9
Undec 9 7 8 18 6 13

Fav/Unfav
-             All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
J. Kitzhaber 43%/40% 68%/20% 16%/68% 34%/38% 43%/48% 43%/34%
C. Dudley 42 /21 28 /31 60 /10 42 /18 47 /22 38 /20

Wisconsin
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/26-27; surveyed 638 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 6/30). Party ID breakdown: 33%D, 32%R, 34%I. Tested: '02 candidate/Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (D), '98 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (R) and Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R).

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/21 11/22
M. Neumann 41% 7% 76% 41% 47% 36% 43% 39%
T. Barrett 36 72 8 29 35 38 38 41
Undec 23 20 16 31 19 26 19 20

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/21 11/22
S. Walker 45% 8% 85% 43% 50% 41% 42% 40%
T. Barrett 38 78 5 30 34 41 39 40
Undec 17 14 9 27 15 18 19 20

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/21    11/22
S. Walker 36%/28% 13%/47% 63%/ 9% 32%/28% 31%/27% 30%/25%
T. Barrett 28 /30 46 /12 10 /52 28 /26 29 /22 31 /21
M. Neumann 18 /35 9 /44 29 /27 18 /33 24 /27 16 /27

Senate 2010

Kansas
A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 6/28-29 for Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-04); surveyed 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 7/1). Tested: Tiahrt, accountant Tom Little (R), ex-AG Robert Londerholm (R) and Rep. Jerry Moran (R-01).

Primary Election Matchup
J. Moran       37%
T. Tiahrt 34
T. Little 2
R. Londerholm 1
Undec 26

Do You Think ___ Is A Liberal/Moderate/Conservative?
-              Liberal Moderate Conservative
J. Moran 8% 23 42
T. Tiahrt 5 20 46

Kentucky
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/28; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/30). Tested: AG Jack Conway (D) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R).

General Election Matchup
-          Now 6/1 5/19 4/28 3/31 3/2 2/2 1/6 9/30
R. Paul 49% 49% 59% 47% 50% 46% 47% 46% 38%
J. Conway 42 41 34 38 36 38 39 38 42
Other 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4
Undec 6 6 3 10 11 12 11 12 15

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     6/1     5/19    4/28    3/31    3/2
R. Paul 55%/38% 57%/38% 69%/28% 56%/31% 53%/33% 57%/26%
J. Conway 51 /35 47 /43 44 /45 47 /36 44 /39 40 /33

North Carolina
A Civitas Institute (R) poll; conducted 6/15-18 by Tel Opinion Research (R); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/30). Party ID breakdown: 45%D, 38%R, 18%I.

Fav/Unfav
-          All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
R. Burr 33%/26% 20%/35% 53%/13% 22%/31% 33%/29% 32%/23%

Ohio
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/26-27; surveyed 482 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 6/30). Party ID breakdown: 44%D, 38%R, 18%I. Tested: LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-Rep./ex-OMB Dir. Rob Portman (R).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/21 6/09 1/09
L. Fisher 40% 69% 14% 25% 42% 38% 36% 41% 39%
R. Portman 38 10 69 40 38 38 41 32 41
Undec 22 21 17 35 19 25 23 27 20

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/21    6/09
L. Fisher 28%/27% 47%/13% 9%/41% 20%/29% 22%/24% 32%/31%
R. Portman 22 /25 10 /32 33 /17 26 /23 16 /19 22 /34

Pennsylvania
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/29; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 7/1). Tested: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and ex-Rep./ex-Club for Growth Pres. Pat Toomey (R).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 6/2 5/19 5/6 4/12 3/15 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13
P. Toomey 45% 45% 42% 42% 47% 42% 43% 43% 44% 37%
J. Sestak 39 38 46 40 36 37 35 35 38 38
Other 6 5 3 10 5 7 7 6 6 6
Undec 11 12 9 9 12 15 15 16 13 19

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     6/2     5/19    5/6     4/12    3/15
P. Toomey 53%/31% 55%/30% 56%/25% 51%/36% 54%/29% 53%/33%
J. Sestak 51 /40 49 /40 52 /33 50 /37 38 /39 40 /38

Washington
A KING-TV poll; conducted 6/25-28 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 781 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 520 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 6/30). Party ID breakdown (RVs): 33%D, 23%R, 39%I. Party ID breakdown (LVs): 32%D, 25%R, 39%I. Tested: Sen. Patty Murray (D), tech salesman/USAF vet Charles Allen (D), the Prudential ex-VP of research and development Bob Burr (D), '06 candidate/'04 Libertarian GOV candidate/'08 WA-07 candidate Michael "Goodspaceguy" Nelson (D), '98/'06 candidate/'04 GOV candidate/'02 WA-01 candidate/moving co. owner Mike The Mover (D), businessman Paul Akers (R), '04/'06 candidate/'00 WA-06 candidate/businessman William Edward Chovil (R), farmer/ex-Redskins tight end Clint Didier (R), Norma Gruber (R), Mike Latimer (R), '04/'08 GOV nominee Dino Rossi (R), '04/'06 Dem candidate/'96 Dem GOV candidate/'08 indie GOV candidate/physician Mohammad Said (Cent.), Univ. of WA prof. James Mercer (I), ret. Navy judge advocate Schalk Leonard (I), '00 GOP Sec/State candidate/'04 GOP Aud. Nominee/'08 GOV candidate Will Baker (Ref.). (Note: Of the RV sample, 177 were interviewed via cell phone by live interviewers. Of the LV sample, 120 were interviewed via cell phone by live interviews.)

Primary Election Matchup (LVs)
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Murray 37% 72% 7% 29% 32% 39%
D. Rossi 33 7 65 36 29 34
C. Didier 5 0 8 7 3 5
P. Akers 3 2 4 2 3 2
B. Burr 1 1 0 1 1 1
GoodSpaceGuy 1 1 0 1 0 1
M. Said 1 0 0 1 1 1
W. Baker 0 1 0 0 1 0
S. Leonard 0 0 0 1 0 0
Mike The Mover 0 0 0 1 0 0
C. Allen 0 0 0 0 0 0
W.E. Chovil 0 0 0 0 0 0
N. Gruber 0 0 0 0 0 0
M. Latimer 0 0 0 0 0 0
J. Mercer 0 0 0 0 0 0
Undec 19 15 15 22 20 17

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
P. Murray 38%/34% 70%/ 6% 12%/61% 28%/43% 35%/41% 41%/28%
 
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