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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Polling Update: Governor 2009:NJ Senate 2010:NH Governor 2010:MA, NH

Governor 2009
New Jersey

A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 6/27-29; surveyed 1,094 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 6/30). Party ID Breakdown: 43%D, 30%R, 27%I. Tested: Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R).

General Election Matchup
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk His
C. Christie 51% 61% 42% 16% 93% 60% 60% 15% 27%
J. Corzine 41 33 48 75 3 26 33 63 67
Undec 9 7 10 9 4 13 7 23 6

Fav/Unfav
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
C. Christie 43%/33% 52%/26% 34%/38% 18%/52% 76%/ 8% 46%/28%
J. Corzine 36 /56 30 /63 42 /50 65 /24 6 /89 24 /70



Senate 2010:
New Hampshire

An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 6/27-29; surveyed 558 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 6/30). Tested: Rep. Paul Hodes (D-02) and ex-Sen. John Sununu (R).

General Election Matchup
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 3/30
P. Hodes 40% 5% 81% 33% 32% 46% 42%
J. Sununu 34 77 3 30 33 35 36
Undec 26 18 16 37 35 19 22



Governor 2010:
Massachusetts
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/30). Tested: Gov. Deval Patrick (D), Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO/ex-MA HHS/Finance sec. Charlie Baker (R) and '06 indie candidate/ex-MA Turnpike Authority board member Christy Mihos (R).

General Election Matchups
C. Mihos 41% D. Patrick 41%
D. Patrick 40 C. Baker 36
Other 10 Other 12
Undec 9 Undec 11

Fav/Unfav
D. Patrick 48%/51%
C. Mihos 46 /35
C. Baker 37 /27

Patrick As Gov.
- Now 4/16 2/10
Approve 42% 34% 48%
Disapprove 57 65 51



New Hampshire
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 6/27-29; surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsample of 558 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 6/30).
Lynch As Gov.

- All RVs GOP Dem Ind 3/30 12/08 9/08 6/08 3/08
Approve 35% 36% 23% 58% 27% 47% 51% 53% 48% 55%
Disapprove 31 29 41 16 30 20 19 18 24 21

Lynch Handling Economy
- All RVs GOP Dem Ind 3/30 12/08 9/08 6/08 3/08
Approve 30% 31% 18% 52% 24% 38% 50% 47% 39% 42%
Disapprove 41 39 55 29 36 24 18 21 30 26

Monday, June 29, 2009

Polling Update: Governor 2010: CA

Governor 2010
California

A J. Moore Methods (D) poll; conducted 6/20-23; surveyed 525 Dem and Ind RVs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (Calbuzz.com). Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) and S.F. Mayor Gavin Newsom (D).

Primary Election Matchup

- All Bay Area L.A. S.CA N.CA 18-39 40-59 60+
J. Brown 46% 37% 46% 52% 52% 26% 49% 54
G. Newsom 26 41 24 16 26 37 28 20

Does ___ Have The Sufficient Skills To Be Governor?
J. Brown 69%
G. Newsom 41%

Friday, June 26, 2009

Polling Update: Governor 2010:FL

Governor 2010
Florida

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/25). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D).
General Election Matchup

B. McCollum 42%
A. Sink 34
Other 7
Undec 18

Fav/Unfav
B. McCollum 53%/25%
A. Sink 50 /32

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Polling Update: Senate 2010:FL, ID, NC Governor 2010:ID

Senate 2010
Florida

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/24). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17) and Rep. Corrine Brown (D-03).

General Election Matchups
C. Crist 50% C. Crist 46%
C. Brown 29 K. Meek 28
Other 8 Other 12
Undec 13 Undec 14

Fav/Unfav
C. Crist 57%/36%
K. Meek 37 /36
C. Brown 36 /38

Crist As Gov.
- Now 4/23
Approve 60% 68%
Disapprove 36 32

Idaho
A Greg Smith & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 6/15-18; surveyed 400 adults; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/24).

Fav/Unfav
M. Crapo 59%/17%
M. Simpson 56 / 8
J. Risch 49 /19
W. Minnick 47 /20

North Carolina
An InsiderAdvantage (IVR) poll; conducted 6/22; surveyed 894 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 6/24). Party ID Breakdown: 45%D, 35%R, 20%I.

Fav/Unfav
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
K. Hagan 39%/39% 23%/57% 56%/24% 29%/42% 41%/43% 37%/35%
R. Burr 39 /31 49 /25 34 /36 31 /32 42 /38 35 /26

Governor 2010
Idaho

A Greg Smith & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 6/15-18; surveyed 400 adults; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/24).

Fav/Unfav
M. Simpson 56%/ 8%
W. Minnick 47 /20
B. Otter 47 /35

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Polling Update: Senate 2010: NY Governor 2010: NY

Senate 2010
New York

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/16-21; surveyed 2,477 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.0%. Subsample of 1,048 Dems; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 6/24). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-14), '06 candidate/labor activist Jonathan Tasini (D) and Rep. Peter King (R-03).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

- All Men Wom
C. Maloney 27% 26% 28%
K. Gillibrand 23 25 22
J. Tasini 4 5 3
Other 1 1 1
Not vote 1 1 2
Undec 44 41 46

General Election Matchups
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/5 2/15
K. Gillibrand 44% 13% 67% 38% 41% 46% 39% 68% 53% 40% 42%
P. King 28 63 8 31 34 22 32 6 20 28 26
Other 1 -- 1 1 1 1 1 -- -- 1 2
Not vote 2 -- 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2
Undec 26 24 23 28 21 30 26 23 25 28 28

- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
C. Maloney 42% 8% 67% 36% 38% 45% 35% 72% 56%
P. King 26 64 5 28 33 19 31 7 16
Other 1 -- 1 1 1 1 1 -- --
Not vote 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 2
Undec 30 28 25 34 25 34 31 19 26

Fav/Unfav
- All GOP Dem Ind 4/5 2/15
K. Gillibrand 25%/10% 18%/16% 29%/ 8% 27%/11% 24%/11% 24%/ 9%
C. Maloney 24 / 8 9 /15 34 / 2 23 / 9 na na
P. King 22 /11 44 / 2 11 /15 24 /11 22 /11 21 /10

Gillibrand As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/5 2/15
Approve 37% 26% 45% 39% 37% 37% 37% 37% 41% 33% 28%
Disapprove 15 23 10 15 19 11 15 9 16 13 10

Schumer As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 4/5 2/15 1/12 12/21 8/6
Approve 63% 43% 78% 62% 64% 63% 61% 64% 57% 63% 61%
Disapprove 23 44 9 26 30 17 25 24 24 22 23


Governor 2010
New York

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/16-21; surveyed 2,477 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.0%. Subsample of 1,048 Dems; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 6/24). Tested: Gov. David Paterson (D), AG Andrew Cuomo (D) and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)


- All Men Wom 5/11 4/5 2/15
A. Cuomo 57% 57% 57% 62% 61% 55%
D. Paterson 20 25 17 17 18 23
Other 1 2 1 1 1 1
Not vote 1 2 1 1 3 1
Undec 20 14 23 18 17 20

General Election Matchups
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/11 4/5 2/15
R. Giuliani 52% 90% 28% 57% 55% 50% 62% 6% 41% 54% 53% 43%
D. Paterson 34 4 60 25 34 34 25 77 48 32 32 43
Other 3 1 2 5 3 3 3 3 1 3 2 2
Not vote 4 1 4 5 3 4 3 4 3 3 4 2
Undec 7 4 6 9 5 10 7 10 6 8 9 10

- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/11 4/5 2/15
A. Cuomo 51% 12% 79% 45% 49% 52% 45% 83% 52% 47% 53% 51%
R. Giuliani 39 78 16 40 43 35 45 8 35 41 36 37
Other 1 1 -- 3 2 1 1 2 4 1 -- 1
Not vote 1 -- 1 1 1 1 1 1 -- 1 2 2
Undec 8 9 4 10 5 11 8 7 8 9 9 9

Fav/Unfav
- All GOP Dem Ind 5/11 4/5
A. Cuomo 63%/15% 47%/33% 75%/ 4% 63%/16% 51%/13% 63%/17%
R. Giuliani 55 /36 87 / 7 33 /56 56 /34 56 /32 55 /35
D. Paterson 28 /54 13 /72 40 /43 22 /57 24 /55 27 /55

Paterson As Gov.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/11 4/5 2/15
Approve 28% 16% 36% 24% 29% 27% 23% 52% 33% 28% 28% 45%
Disapprove 61 76 52 64 64 58 66 35 54 61 60 41

Cuomo As AG
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/11 4/5 2/15
Approve 73% 58% 82% 77% 74% 73% 74% 79% 65% 68% 75% 76%
Disapprove 12 24 6 11 16 10 12 8 17 12 14 11

Do You Feel Paterson Deserves To Be Elected To A Full Four-Year Term As Gov.?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/11 4/5
Yes, deserves 22% 11% 31% 19% 23% 22% 17% 47% 32% 21% 22%
No, does not 64 79 56 67 67 62 70 37 57 64 63

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Polling Update: Senate 2010:OH Governor 2010:GA

Senate 2010
Ohio

A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 6/17-19; surveyed 619 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 6/23). Party ID Breakdown: 50%D, 35%R, 15%I. Tested: ex-Rep./ex-OMB dir. Rob Portman (R), LG Lee Fisher (D) and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D).

General Election Matchups

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 1/18

J. Brunner 40% 37% 42% 65% 6% 35% 37% 62% 34%

R. Portman 32 40 24 7 69 26 35 10 42

Undec 29 23 33 28 25 40 28 28 24

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 1/18

L. Fisher 41% 36% 45% 68% 9% 27% 37% 68% 39%

R. Portman 32 42 24 8 68 26 35 13 41

Undec 27 21 32 23 24 47 28 18 20

Fav/Unfav

- All Dem GOP Ind 1/18

L. Fisher 32%/31% 51%/12% 13%/58% 17%/32% 40%/32%

J. Brunner 32 /32 51 /13 9 /58 23 /33 34 /36

R. Portman 22 /34 11 /49 43 /14 11 /30 28 /23

Governor 2010

Georgia

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/17; surveyed 463 GOP primary LVs and 247 Dem primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.6% and +/- 6.2%, respectively (release, 6/22). Tested: Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R), Sec/State Karen Handel (R), Rep. Nathan Deal (R-09), state Sen. Eric Johnson (R), state Rep. Austin Scott (R), activist Ray McBerry (R), ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), AG Thurbert Baker (D), state House Min. Leader Dubose Porter (D), '98 candidate/ex-GA Nat'l Guard Adj. Gen. David Poythress (D) and Ray City Mayor Carl Camon (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

J. Oxendine 35%

K. Handel 11

N. Deal 10

E. Johnson 3

A. Scott 2

R. McBerry 1

Other 5

Undec 33

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

R. Barnes 48%

T. Baker 8

D. Porter 5

D. Poythress 2

C. Camon 2

Other 5

Undec 31

Fav/Unfav

- GOP Dem

J. Oxendine 61%/18% na

K. Handel 49 /12 na

N. Deal 28 /14 na

E. Johnson 21 /14 na

A. Scott 20 /11 na

R. McBerry 17 /14 na

R. Barnes na 64%/12%

T. Baker na 45 /17

D. Porter na 25 /15

D. Poythress na 22 /22

C. Camon na 19 /16

Monday, June 22, 2009

Polling Update: Senate 2010: NV Governor 2010: NY,NV

Senate 2010

Nevada

A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 6/18-19 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 6/21). Party ID Breakdown: 44%D, 36%R, 20%I.

Reid As Sen.

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind

Excellent/good 43% 37% 49% 74% 8% 38%

Only fair/poor 55 62 48 23 91 59

Ensign As Sen.

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind

Excellent/good 48% 51% 45% 35% 68% 43%

Only fair/poor 45 44 46 60 23 48

Fav/Unfav

- Now 5/14

J. Ensign 39%/37% 53%/18%

H. Reid 34 /46 38 /50

Governor 2010

New York

A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 6/15-18; surveyed 626 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Subsample of 299 Dems; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 6/22). Tested: Gov. David Paterson (D), AGAndrew Cuomo (D) and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

- All Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/21 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/23

A. Cuomo 69% 67% 71% 78% 50% 58% 70% 64% 67% 53% 33%

D. Paterson 16 20 13 12 27 15 19 11 17 27 35

Other/undec 15 12 16 9 23 27 11 25 17 20 33

General Election Matchups

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/21 4/15

R. Giuliani 57% 44% 80% 60% 62% 53% 66% 18% 36% 59% 56%

D. Paterson 27 43 9 18 24 30 21 63 34 31 29

Undec 15 13 11 22 14 17 13 19 31 10 15

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/21 4/15

A. Cuomo 49% 69% 24% 38% 42% 54% 43% 76% 66% 53% 53%

R. Giuliani 40 21 62 52 47 35 47 12 20 41 39

Undec 11 10 13 9 11 11 10 12 14 6 8

Elect Paterson In '10?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/21 4/15 3/18

Elect him 15% 17% 13% 13% 16% 13% 15% 12% 14%

Prefer another 70 66 74 73 68 71 71 71 67

Undec 15 18 13 14 15 16 15 17 19

Fav/Unfav

- All Dem GOP Ind 5/21 4/15

A. Cuomo 71%/17% 78%/14% 62%/20% 67%/18% 66%/20% 66%/18%

R. Giuliani 62 /33 53 /43 78 /17 61 /30 61 /35 55 /41

D. Paterson 31 /57 38 /52 23 /61 28 /65 27 /60 27 /63

Paterson As Gov.

- Now 5/21 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/23 12/11 11/13 10/21

Excellent/good 20% 18% 18% 19% 28% 51% 55% 55% 55%

Fair/poor 78 81 81 78 69 45 40 41 40

Direction Of NY

- Now 5/21 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/23 12/11 11/13 10/21

Right dir. 24% 33% 27% 30% 31% 39% 37% 39% 39%

Wrong dir. 63 52 57 52 53 42 44 43 41

Would You Prefer To See Cuomo Run For Reelection As AG Or For Gov.?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 5/21

For Gov. 46% 56% 37% 40% 43% 50% 46% 48% 48% 47%

Reelect as AG 35 28 38 41 39 32 37 35 20 33


Nevada

A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 6/18-19 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 6/21). Party ID Breakdown: 44%D, 36%R, 20%I.

Fav/Unfav

- Now 5/14

J. Gibbons 10%/57% 17%/52%

Gibbons As Gov.

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind

Excellent/good 14% 22% 6% 5% 25% 14%

Only fair/poor 82 76 88 90 74 81

Friday, June 19, 2009

Polling Update: Governor 2009:VA Senate 2010:HA,PA Governor 2010:NM

Governor 2009

Virginia

A Daily Kos poll; conducted 6/15-17 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/18). Party ID Breakdown: 39%D, 32%R, 29%I. Tested: ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R) and state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D).

General Election Matchup

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 6/3 5/20 4/8

B. McDonnell 45% 49% 41% 13% 84% 47% 59% 5% 46% 45% 38%

C. Deeds 44 40 48 74 7 44 34 71 34 32 31

Undec 11 11 11 13 9 9 7 24 20 23 31

Fav/Unfav

- All Dem GOP Ind 6/3 5/20

B. McDonnell 55%/36% 36%/58% 81%/10% 53%/35% 56%/34% 53%/33%

C. Deeds 47 /35 72 /12 17 /64 46 /34 41 /39 35 /36


Senate 2010

Hawaii

A Daily Kos poll; conducted 6/15-17 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/18). Party ID Breakdown: 44%D, 23%R, 33%I. Tested: Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) and Gov. Linda Lingle (R).

General Election Matchup

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Asn Oth His 12/17

D. Inouye 52% 49% 55% 80% 7% 46% 48% 54% 57% 54% 53%

L. Lingle 40 44 36 12 86 45 45 38 35 37 42

Undec 8 7 9 8 7 9 7 8 8 9 5

Fav/Unfav

- All Dem GOP Ind 12/17

D. Inouye 56%/38% 69%/24% 30%/64% 57%/39% 58%/37%

L. Lingle 51 /43 38 /56 79 /16 49 /44 53 /41

Pennsylvania

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 6/18). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak(D-07) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

General Election Matchups

A. Specter 50% J. Sestak 41%

P. Toomey 39 P. Toomey 35

Other 4 Other 7

Undec 7 Undec 18

Fav/Unfav

A. Specter 53%/43%

P. Toomey 50 /35

J. Sestak 42 /32

Governor 2010

New Mexico

A Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (D) poll; conducted 5/31-6/4 for the DGA; surveyed 613 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/18). Tested: LG Diane Denish (D), '08 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R) and '08 SEN candidate/ex-Rep. Heather Wilson (R).

General Election Matchups

- All Wht His Men Wom CD1

D. Denish 57% 50% 70% 50% 61% 53%

H. Wilson 35 41 25 41 31 40

Undec 8 9 5 9 8 na

- All Wht His Men Wom

D. Denish 57% 50% 70% 53% 60%

S. Pearce 35 43 24 37 34

Undec 8 7 6 10 6

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Senate 2010

North Carolina

A Carolina Opinion Survey (IVR) (R) poll; conducted 6/15-16 for Sen. Richard Burr (R); surveyed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 6/18). Party ID Breakdown: 46%D, 37%R, 17%I. Tested: Burr and '02 candidate/Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) .

General Election Matchup

- All

R. Burr 52%

E. Marshall 37

Undec 11


Pennsylvania

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 374 likely Dem voters; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 6/18).

Primary Election Matchup

Specter 51%

Sestak 32

Undec 17

Fav/Unfav

Specter 72%/26%

Sestak 57 /21

 
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