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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Tuesday, 9/30

PRESIDENTIAL
NEVADA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/27-29; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/30). Party ID Breakdown: 43%D, 40%R, 17%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+ 9/14
McCain/Palin 49% 13% 91% 39% 52% 46% 45% 55% 49%
Obama/Biden 47 85 5 48 40 53 51 41 46
Other 1 -- -- 1 2 -- 1 -- --
Undec 4 2 4 7 6 2 5 4 5


NORTH CAROLINA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/27-29; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/30). Party ID Breakdown: 44%D, 33%R, 23%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 9/16
McCain/Palin 49% 17% 93% 46% 56% 42% 63% 6% 52%
Obama/Biden 46 78 4 46 38 54 32 91 41
Other 1 1 -- 3 2 -- 1 -- 1
Undec 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 6


PENNSYLVANIA
An Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll; conducted 9/24-28; surveyed 581 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 9/29). Party ID Breakdown: 52%D, 38%R, 8%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-           Now 9/28 9/27 9/26
B. Obama 49% 48% 47% 47%
J. McCain 42 42 42 43
Other 2 2 2 2
Undec 7 8 9 8

Fav/Unfav
J. Biden    51%/30%
B. Obama 51 /35
J. McCain 47 /36
S. Palin 42 /38


TENNESSEE
A Middle TN State Univ. poll; conducted 9/15-27; surveyed 635 adults; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Subsample of 357 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.2% (release, 9/29).

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-               All LVs
McCain/Palin 48% 55%
Obama/Biden 36 35
Undec 10 7


VIRGINIA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/27-29; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/30). Party ID Breakdown: 37%R, 36%D, 27%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 9/20
McCain/Palin 49% 16% 80% 49% 51% 46% 64% 7% 48%
Obama/Biden 46 80 17 42 45 48 31 89 46
Other 1 -- -- 5 1 1 1 -- --
Undec 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 5


SENATE
GEORGIA
A Mellman Group (D) poll; conducted 9/24-28 for the DSCC; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/29). Tested: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R), '06 LG nominee/atty/ex-state Rep. Jim Martin (D) and atty Allen Buckley (L).

General Election Matchup
S. Chambliss        37%
J. Martin 34
A. Buckley 3


TENNESSEE
A Middle TN State Univ. poll; conducted 9/15-27; surveyed 357 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.2% (release, 9/29). Tested: Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) and ex-TN Dem chair Bob Tuke (D).
General Election Matchup
L. Alexander    50%
B. Tuke 26
Undec 23


TENNESSEE
A Chattanooga Times Free Press poll; conducted 9/22-24 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (AP, 9/29). Tested: Alexander and Tuke.
General Election Matchup
L. Alexander    57%
B. Tuke 33
Undec 10


HOUSE
ME-01
A Moore Information (R) poll; conducted 9/21-22 for Iraq vet/ex-Small Business Admin regional chief Charles Summers (R); surveyed 401 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/29). Tested: Summers and '02 SEN nominee Chellie Pingree (D).
General Election Matchup
C. Pingree      44%
C. Summers 33
Undec 22

Fav/Unfav
C. Pingree      43%/20%
C. Summers 31 /13


PA-10
A Lycoming College poll; conducted 9/21-25; surveyed 460 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.6% (Rubinkam, AP, 9/29). Tested: Rep. Chris Carney (D) and One Source Staffing Solutions Pres. Chris Hackett (R).

General Election Matchup
C. Carney       46%
C. Hackett 36
Undec 18


FL-25
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/23-25 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/29). Tested: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) and ex-Cuban American National Foundation dir./Miami-Dade Co. Dem Chair Joe Garcia (D).
General Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht His Blk
M. Diaz-Balart 45% 48% 42% 10% 80% 42% 46% 48% 6%
J. Garcia 41 37 45 82 6 38 40 41 63
Other 1 1 1 -- 1 2 1 1 --
Undec 13 14 12 8 13 18 13 10 31

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem    GOP     Ind
J. Garcia 47%/29% 64%/16% 30%/44% 49%/24%
M. Diaz-Balart 45 /34 28 /52 64 /17 41 /36


MI-09
A Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 8/17-19 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/30). Tested: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R), ex-MI lottery commissioner/state Sen. Gary Peters (D) and assisted suicide advocate Jack Kevorkian (I).

General Election Matchup
G. Peters           41%
J. Knollenberg 37
J. Kevorkian 8
Undec 14

Monday, September 29, 2008

Monday, 9/29

PRESIDENTIAL
COLORADO
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 9/14 8/20 7/21 6/17
Obama/Biden 47% 81% 13% 32% 43% 50% 46% 46% 45% 59%
McCain/Palin 46 11 81 59 51 41 46 47 47 44


KENTUCKY
A Louisville Courier-Journal poll; conducted 9/22-25 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 717 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 9/28). HRC column denotes responses among Dem primary supporters of Hillary Clinton.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk HRC
McCain/Palin 53% 59% 47% 35% 81% 46% 55% 12% 40%
Obama/Biden 41 36 45 58 13 46 39 79 55
Other * * -- -- * -- * -- --
Undec 6 5 8 7 5 8 6 9 5


Fav/Unfav
-          All     Men    Wom     Dem    GOP     Ind
J. McCain 52%/26% 58%/23% 47%/29% 37%/38% 79%/ 8% 40%/31%
S. Palin 49 /27 52 /24 46 /29 34 /40 72 / 6 42 /29
B. Obama 38 /38 37 /44 39 /32 52 /24 16 /62 44 /25
J. Biden 35 /33 32 /39 38 /26 49 /20 13 /53 37 /29


MICHIGAN
A Democracy Corps (D) poll; conducted 9/21-24 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D); surveyed 760 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 9/26).

WH '08 General Election Matchup
B. Obama    49%
J. McCain 42
B. Barr 1
R. Nader 4
Other 1
Undec 5


MONTANA
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/22-24 for Daily Kos; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/26). Party ID Breakdown: 38%R, 30%D, 32%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-             All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
McCain/Palin 52% 56% 48% 13% 85% 51% 48% 54% 52% 53%
Obama/Biden 39 37 41 81 7 38 43 37 40 37
Other 4 5 3 3 3 5 4 5 4 3
Undec 5 2 8 3 5 6 5 4 4 7


SOUTH CAROLINA
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/22-24 for Daily Kos; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/26). Party ID Breakdown: 42%R, 36%D, 22%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-               All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
McCain/Palin 54% 59% 49% 14% 88% 55% 71% 4%
Obama/Biden 39 36 42 79 5 38 23 86
Other 2 3 1 3 1 3 2 --
Undec 5 2 8 4 6 4 4 10


TENNESSEE
A Chattanooga Times Free Press poll; conducted 9/22-24 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 9/28).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
McCain/Palin 55% 59% 51% 16% 89% 59% 64% 4%
Obama/Biden 39 36 52 78 9 32 30 91
Undec 6 5 7 6 2 9 6 5

Fav/Unfav
S. Palin    59%/20%
J. McCain 58 /26
B. Obama 38 /44
J. Biden 34 /38


WYOMING
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/22-24 for Daily Kos; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/26). Party ID Breakdown: 48%R, 24%D, 28%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-               All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 5/21
McCain/Palin 57% 61% 53% 9% 84% 53% 53%
Obama/Biden 36 32 40 85 9 40 40
Other 4 5 3 3 3 6 na
Undec 3 2 4 3 4 1 7


SENATE
KENTUCKY
A Louisville Courier-Journal poll; conducted 9/22-25 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 717 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 9/28). Tested: Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and '03/'07 GOV candidate/businessman Bruce Lunsford (D).
General Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
M. McConnell 45% 53% 37% 27% 74% 33% 47% 6%
B. Lunsford 44 38 49 65 13 37 42 79
Other 1 1 1 * 2 4 1 --
Undec 11 9 13 8 11 27 10 15

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Men    Wom     Dem    GOP     Ind
M. McConnell 40%/31% 48%/30% 33%/32% 29%/42% 60%/14% 29%/31%
B. Lunsford 26 /29 24 /35 29 /22 38 /17 10 /47 19 /23


SOUTH CAROLINA
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/22-24 for Daily Kos; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/26). Tested: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) and engineer/pilot/flight trainer Bob Conley (D).
General Election Matchup
-          All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
L. Graham 51% 55% 47% 12% 85% 50% 67% 4%
B. Conley 42 39 45 83 7 42 29 80
Other 1 1 1 -- 1 2 1 --
Undec 6 5 7 5 7 6 3 16

Fav/Unfav
-          All     Men    Wom     Dem    GOP     Ind
L. Graham 53%/39% 60%/36% 46%/42% 28%/65% 77%/19% 50%/35%
B. Conley 45 /34 40 /40 50 /28 67 /14 29 /54 40 /30


SOUTH DAKOTA
A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll; conducted 9/24-25 for Sen. Tim Johnson (D); surveyed 605 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/26). Tested: Johnson and state Rep. Joel Dykstra (R).

General Election Matchup
-               Now 8/14
T. Johnson 61% 61%
J. Dykstra 34 34


WYOMING
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/22-24 for Daily Kos; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/26). Tested: Sen. John Barrasso (R), atty Nick Carter (D), Sen. Mike Enzi (R) and Univ. of WY prof. Chris Rothfuss (D).
General Election Matchup
-          All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
J. Barrasso 58% 61% 55% 8% 85% 55% 53% 61% 59% 58%
N. Carter 34 32 36 82 7 39 37 32 32 34
Unec 8 7 9 10 8 6 10 7 9 8


General Election Matchup
-          All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
M. Enzi 59% 61% 57% 10% 86% 55% 55% 62% 60% 59%
C. Rothfuss 35 34 36 83 8 39 38 33 34 35
Undec 6 5 7 7 6 6 7 5 6 6


HOUSE
CA-04
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/23-25 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/26). Tested: state Sen. Tom McClintock (R) and '06 nominee/USAF vet Charlie Brown.
General Election Matchup
-            All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
C. Brown 46% 42% 50% 86% 13% 49% 49% 45% 47% 43%
T. McClintock 41 46 36 7 72 33 38 43 40 44
Other 5 7 3 2 6 8 3 7 6 4
Undec 8 5 11 5 9 10 10 5 7 9

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem    GOP     Ind
C. Brown 44%/25% 67%/10% 26%/40% 42%/21%
T. McClintock 41 /35 27 /56 54 /21 38 /30


FL-13
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/23-25 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/28). Tested: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) and '04 candidate/'06 nominee Christine Jennings (D).
General Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht His Blk
V. Buchanan 43% 47% 39% 11% 68% 40% 45% 36% 6%
C. Jennings 31 30 32 65 7 30 30 28 67
Other 6 5 7 8 3 9 6 6 --
Undec 20 18 22 16 22 21 19 19 27

Fav/Unfav
-          All     Men    Wom     Dem    GOP     Ind
V. Buchanan 37%/42% 40%/41% 34%/43% 15%/65% 54%/28% 34%/40%
C. Jennings 32 /38 29 /44 35 /32 53 /19 17 /53 31 /37


FL-13
A Feldman Group (D) poll; conducted 9/22-23 for Jennings; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/26). Tested: Jennings and Buchanan.

General Election Matchup
V. Buchanan     44%
C. Jennings 40
Undec 16


FL-18
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/23-25 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/28). Tested: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) and LanguageSpeak CEO Annette Taddeo (D).
General Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht His Blk
I. Ros-Lehtinen 53% 57% 49% 18% 84% 54% 55% 57% 7%
A. Taddeo 36 33 39 71 6 35 33 39 61
Other 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 --
Undec 10 9 11 10 9 10 10 3 32

Fav/Unfav
-                  All     Dem    GOP     Ind
I. Ros-Lehtinen 49%/37% 29%/59% 69%/20% 47%/33%
A. Taddeo 38 /32 52 /21 29 /43 35 /31


NJ-02
A Press Of Atlantic City/Richard Stockton College poll; conducted 9/18-20 by Zogby; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/28). Tested: Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) and Cape May Councilor David Kurkowski (D).
General Election Matchup
F. LoBiondo     62%
D. Kurkowski 26
Undec 12


NJ-03
A Press Of Atlantic City/Richard Stockton College poll; conducted 9/18-20 by Zogby; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/28). Tested: Medford Mayor Chris Myers (R) and state Sen. John Adler (D).

General Election Matchup
-               All Men Wom
C. Myers 39% 46% 32%
J. Adler 37 36 38
Undec 22 na na



WY-AL
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/22-24 for Daily Kos; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/26). Tested: '06 nominee Gary Trauner (D) and ex-state Treas. Cynthia Lummis (R).
General Election Matchup
-          All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 5/21
G. Trauner 42% 39% 45% 85% 13% 56% 44%
C. Lummis 42 46 38 12 62 33 41
Undec 16 15 17 3 25 11 15

Fav/Unfav
-          All     Dem    GOP     Ind     5/21
C. Lummis 54%/32% 30%/62% 71%/13% 48%/37% 49%/29%
G. Trauner 53 /36 85 /12 35 /56 58 /23 52 /31

Friday, September 26, 2008

Friday, 9/26

From: Michelle Madeley
Sent: Wednesday, September 24, 2008 1:51 PM
To: Program Division; Development Division; Political and Campaigns Committee; Cormac Flynn; Ed Zuckerman
Subject: Polling update: Presidential: AK, IA, MA, MI, NV, NH, OR, PA, VT, VA Senate: NH, VA, House: NH-02

PRESIDENTIAL

ALASKA

An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/20-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 38%D, 32%R, 30%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-49 50+
McCain/Palin    53% 27% 90% 47% 61% 47% 62%  7% 58%   47%
Obama/Biden     41  66   7  47  34  47  33  86  34    45
Undec            5   7   3   6   5   6   5   8   8     7

IOWA

A Marist College poll; conducted 9/18-21; surveyed 714 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.7%. Subsample of 467 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All LVs Dem GOP Ind

Obama/Biden     46% 51% 92%  9% 44%

McCain/Palin    41  41   6  85  42

Other            2   2   *   1   3

Undec           11   6   2   5  11

Fav/Unfav

-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
B. Obama    58%/36%   na      na      na      na      na
J. Biden    54 /40    na      na      na      na      na
J. McCain   50 /30  76%/11% 23%/52% 46%/32% 46%/37% 53%/24%
S. Palin    49 /35  20 /61  83 / 8  51 /30  53 /32  46 /37

MASSACHUSETTS

An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/20-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 39%D, 14%R, 47%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+
Obama/Biden     55% 76%  7% 51% 49% 60% 58%   50%
McCain/Palin    39  19  89  41  45  34  36    43
Other            1  --  --   2   1   1   1     1
Undec            5   5   4   6   5   6   5     6

MICHIGAN

An Inside MI Politics poll; conducted 9/15-20 by MRG of Lansing; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Spangler, Detroit Free Press, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

J. McCain       46%
B. Obama        43

NEVADA

A Myers Research (D)/Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 9/14-19 for Project New West (D); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Ralston, RalstonFlash.com, 9/23).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama    47%
J. McCain   45

NEW HAMPSHIRE

A Marist College poll; conducted 9/17-21; surveyed 763 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 604 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All LVs Dem GOP Ind
Obama/Biden     48% 51% 96% 11% 54%
McCain/Palin    45  45   2  87  38
Other            1   1   1   1   2
Undec            6   3   1   1   6

Fav/Unfav

-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
B. Obama   63%/31%    na      na      na      na      na
J. Biden   61 /34     na      na      na      na      na
S. Palin   52 /38   12%/82% 85%/ 8% 48%/40% 48%/41% 56%/35%
J. McCain  51 /33   84 / 6  23 /60  57 /28  54 /32  49 /35

OREGON

An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/19-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 45%D, 34%R, 21%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+
Obama/Biden     52% 87% 10% 46% 51% 53% 57%   47%
McCain/Palin    41   7  85  42  42  40  36    46
Other            1  --  --   6   1   2   1     2
Undec            6   6   5   6   6   5   6     5

PENNSYLVANIA

An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/20-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 53%D, 39%R, 8%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+
Obama/Biden     50% 84%  6% 41% 47% 53% 52%   48%
McCain/Palin    46  13  89  51  50  42  43    49
Other           --  --  --   3  --  --  --    --
Undec            4   3   5   5   3   5   5     3

VERMONT

An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/18-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 34%D, 27%R, 39%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+
Obama/Biden     56% 87%  9% 61% 50% 61% 59%   52%
McCain/Palin    38   7  86  31  45  31  34    42
Other            1   1  --   2   1   1   1     1
Undec            5   5   5   6   4   7   6     5

VIRGINIA

A Today Show/NBC News poll; conducted 9/17-22 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

McCain/Palin    47%  8% 81% 49% 51% 43% 56%  4%

Obama/Biden     44  85   9  41  39  49  35  89

Other            1   1   1   1   2  --   1  --

Undec            8   6   9   9   8   8   8   7

Fav/Unfav

J. McCain   48%/22%

S. Palin    46 /23

B. Obama    45 /34

J. Biden    39 /26

SENATE

NEW HAMPSHIRE

A WMUR-TV/Granite State Poll; conducted 9/14-21 by UNH; surveyed 523 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 9/23). Tested: ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Sen. John Sununu (R).

General Election Matchup

-          All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 7/20 4/30 2/08 9/07 7/07

J. Shaheen 48% 87% 42%  7% 43% 52% 46%  52%  55%  54%  54%

J. Sununu  44   7  39  86  48  40  42   40   37   38   38

Other       2   2   4   1   3   1   1    1    1    1    1

Undec       7   3  16   6   6   7  10    7    7    7    7

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     7/20    4/30    2/08    9/07    7/07

J. Shaheen  47%/40% 53%/31% 56%/29% 57%/23% 56%/25% 60%/24%

J. Sununu   44 /37  52 /33  48 /37  46 /35  40 /37  43 /35

VIRGINIA

A Today Show/NBC News poll; conducted 9/17-22 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 9/24). Tested: ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D) and ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

M. Warner   61% 93% 33% 59% 53% 69% 56% 87%

J. Gilmore  28   2  51  27  34  22  33   4

Undec       11   5  16  14  13   9  11   9

Fav/Unfav

M. Warner   62%/13%

J. Gilmore  27 /35

HOUSE

NH-02

An Anzalone Liszt Research (D) poll; conducted 9/14-18 for Rep. Paul Hodes (D); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/24). Tested: Hodes, talk show host Jennifer Horn (R), gun-rights activist/ex-state Rep. Chester Lapointe (L).

General Election Matchups

-               All Dem GOP

P. Hodes        50% 83% na

J. Horn         32   5  72

C. Lapointe      4  na  na

Generic Dem 51%

Generic GOPer 36

Fav/Unfav

P. Hodes        41%/26%

G. Bush         30 /69

Hodes As Rep.

Positive        47%

Negative        25

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               Now 5/08

B. Obama        52% 47%

J. McCain       39  41

SEN '08 General Election Matchup

J. Shaheen      55%

J. Sununu       3/8

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Thursday, 9/25

PRESIDENTIAL

ALASKA

A Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. PublicMind poll; conducted 9/17-21; surveyed 601 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom
J. McCain   55% 11% 51% 89% 57% 53%
B. Obama    37  83  31   6  34  39
Other        3   2   5   3   4   2
Undec        5   4  13   2   5   5

COLORADO

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 9/21-23; surveyed 932 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 794 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-               All LVs 8/26

Obama/Biden     51% 51% 44%

McCain/Palin    45  47  49

Neither          3   1   5

Other            *   *   1

Undec            1   1   1

-               All LVs 8/26

B. Obama        49% 49% 40%

J. McCain       43  45  45

R. Nader         4   3   7

B. Barr          1   1   3

C. McKinney      1   *   2

None             1   *   2

Other            *   *   1

Undec            1   1   1

DELAWARE

A Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. PublicMind poll; conducted 9/17-21; surveyed 601 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom
B. Obama    56% 89% 38%  9% 52% 59%
J. McCain   36   7  26  85  40  31
Other        1  --   5   2   1   1
Undec        7   4  31   4   7   8

FLORIDA

A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 9/20-22; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 9/25).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               Now 9/24 6/29

McCain/Palin    48% 49%  49%

Obama/Biden     45  42   41

Other            2   1    1

Undec            5   8    9

Fav/Unfav

S. Palin    54%/33%

B. Obama    50 /38

J. McCain   50 /39

J. Biden    45 /36

MICHIGAN

A Today Show/NBC News poll; conducted 9/18-23 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 9/25).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

Obama/Biden         45%

McCain/Palin        45

MICHIGAN

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 9/21-23; surveyed 966 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 755 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-               All LVs 9/9

Obama/Biden     51% 51% 49%

McCain/Palin    44  46  45

Neither          3   2   4

Other            *   *   *

Undec            1   1   2

-               All LVs 9/9

B. Obama        48% 49% 45%

J. McCain       40  43  42

R. Nader         5   3   6

B. Barr          2   2   2

C. McKinney      1   1   1

None             2   1   2

Other            1   *   *

Undec            2   1   2

MICHIGAN

A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV/WILX-TV/WJRT-TV poll; conducted 9/20-22 by EPIC-MRA; surveyed 406 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           Now 9/17 8/21 7/15 5/22

B. Obama    48% 43%  43%  43%  40%

J. McCain   38  42   41   41   44

R. Nader     2   2    3    3   na

B. Barr      1   2    1    2   na

Undec       12  10   13   12   16

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     9/17    8/21    7/15    5/22    4/9

B. Obama    56%/34% 54%/36% 49%/36% 51%/37% 45%/41% 55%/38%

J. Biden    52 /31  47 /30    na      na      na      na

J. McCain   48 /44  51 /42  52 /36  58 /32  48 /36  59 /34

S. Palin    46 /40  48 /35    na      na      na      na

MONTANA

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 9/21-23; surveyed 903 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 737 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-               All LVs

McCain/Palin    53% 54%

Obama/Biden     42  43

Neither          3   2

Other            *  --

Undec            1   1

-               All LVs

J. McCain       49% 49%

B. Obama        38  40

R. Paul          9   7

B. Barr          1   1

R. Nader         1   1

None             1   1

Other            *  --

Undec            1   1

PENNSYLVANIA

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 9/21-23; surveyed 920 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 730 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-               All LVs 8/26

Obama/Biden     52% 53% 47%

McCain/Palin    43  44  43

Neither          3   2   5

Other            1   *   1

Undec            1   1   3

-               All LVs 8/26

B. Obama        51% 51% 46%

J. McCain       42  43  38

R. Nader         3   3   7

B. Barr          1   1   1

None             1   1   5

Other            *   *   1

Undec            1   1   2

PENNSYLVANIA

A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 9/20-22; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 9/25).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               Now 9/7 7/27 4/20 4/13 4/6 3/30 3/9

Obama/Biden     47% 47% 49%  40%  39%  41% 42%  44%

McCain/Palin    46  45  40   48   49   48  47   47

Other            2   3  na   na   na   na  na   na

Undec            5   5  11   12   12   11  11    9

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     9/7

S. Palin    52%/34% 51%/32%

J. McCain   47 /36  49 /33

B. Obama    47 /36  48 /38

J. Biden    47 /38  49 /36

WEST VIRGINIA

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 9/21-23; surveyed 876 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 694 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 9/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

-               All LVs

McCain/Palin    50% 50%

Obama/Biden     44  46

Neither          4   3

Other            1   1

Undec            1   *

-               All LVs

J. McCain       47% 49%

B. Obama        41  44

R. Nader         6   5

C. McKinney      1   1

None             3   2

Other            *   *

Undec            1   *

WISCONSIN

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/22-23 for WISC-TV; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/25). Party ID Breakdown: 37%D, 32%R, 31%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
Obama/Biden     49% 45% 53% 82% 10% 50%
McCain/Palin    43  49  37   8  84  43
Other            3   4   2   2   3   3
Undec            5   2   8   8   3   4

SENATE

ALASKA

A Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. PublicMind poll; conducted 9/17-21; surveyed 601 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/24). Tested: Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D).

General Election Matchup

-           All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom
M. Begich   47% 83% 46% 23% 41% 53%
T. Stevens  43  13  38  67  51  36
Other        4   3   4   5   4   4
Undec        5   2  12   6   4   6

DELAWARE

A Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. PublicMind poll; conducted 9/17-21; surveyed 601 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/24). Tested: Sen. Joe Biden (D) and '06 candidate/activist/pol. commentator Christine O'Donnell (R).

General Election Matchup

-           All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom
J. Biden    69% 93% 66% 31% 66% 71%
C. Donnell  26   5  15  62  29  23
Other        1   1   3  --   1   1
Undec        5   2  16   6   4   6
 

HOUSE

AK-AL

A Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. PublicMind poll; conducted 9/17-21; surveyed 601 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/24). Tested: Rep. Don Young (R) and '06 LG nominee/ex-state House Min. Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D).

General Election Matchup

-               All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom

E. Berkowitz    47% 81% 42% 25% 41% 53%

D. Young        41  13  36  61  51  31

Other            2   1   6   3   2   2

Undec            9   4  16  11   5  14

DE-AL

A Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. PublicMind poll; conducted 9/17-21; surveyed 601 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/24). Tested: Rep. Mike Castle (R) and Children's Rights Advocate/'06 candidate Karen Hartley-Nagel (D).

General Election Matchup

-                   All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom

M. Castle           62% 47% 66% 86% 66% 59%

K. Hartley-Nagel    28  44  18   7  26  31

Other                1   1   2  --   2  --

Undec                8   8  14   6   6  10

LA-01

A Kitchens Group (D) poll; conducted 9/18-21 for businessman Jim Harlan (D); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/25). Tested: Harlan and Rep. Steve Scalise (R).

General Election Matchup

-               Now 6/08

S. Scalise      42% 68%

J. Harlan       31  15

Undec           26  17

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     6/08

S. Scalise  44%/24% 61%/13%

LA-04

A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 9/22-23 for trucking co. exec. Chris Gorman (R); surveyed 300 GOP LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 9/24). Tested: Gorman, physician/businessman John Fleming (R) and ex-Bossier Chamber of Commerce Pres./atty Jeff Thompson (R).

Primary Election Matchup

-               Now 9/11

C. Gorman       31% 30%

J. Fleming      29  32

J. Thompson     17  1
5

Undec           23  23

NH-01

A WMUR-TV/Granite State Poll; conducted 9/14-21 by UNH; surveyed 252 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.2% (release, 9/24). Tested: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) and ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley (R).

General Election Matchup

-               All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 7/20 4/30

J. Bradley      45%  8% 40% 84% 52% 39% 46%  45%

C. Shea-Porter  42  84  32   3  33  50  40   39 

Other            1  --  --   2   3  --   1    2

Undec           12   8  29  10  12  11  14   13

Fav/Unfav

-               All     Dem     Ind     GOP     7/20

C. Shea-Porter  44%/31% 73%/ 5% 36%/20% 16%/63% 35%/32%

J. Bradley      36 /29  11 /50  27 /25  65 /12  48 /27

NH-02

A WMUR-TV/Granite State Poll; conducted 9/14-21 by UNH; surveyed 271 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.0% (release, 9/24). Tested: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) and radio host Jennifer Horn (R).

General Election Matchups

-           All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 7/20 4/30

P. Hodes    38% 72% 32%  2% 36% 40% 43%  52%

J. Horn     26   5  24  52  30  23  23   25

Other        2   1   5   2   3   2   2    2

Undec       33  22  39  44  31  35  32   22

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     Dem     Ind     GOP     7/20    4/30

P. Hodes    28%/22% 46%/ 9% 25%/20%  9%/38% 42%/16% 38%/18%

J. Horn     16 /12   4 /17  12 /17  31 / 5   9 / 4   7 / 2

VA-02

A Bennett, Petts & Normington (D) poll; conducted 9/21-22 for diplomat Glenn Nye (D); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/25). Tested: Nye and Rep. Thelma Drake (R).

General Election Matchup

-           Now 5/08

T. Drake    45% 48%

G. Nye      40  32

Undec       15  20

Drake As Rep.

Excellent/good      45%

Only fair/poor      47

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     5/08

T. Drake    42%/35% 48%/29%

Monday, September 15, 2008

Monday, 9/15

PRESIDENTIAL
IOWA
A Des Moines Register poll; conducted 9/8-10 by Selzer & Co.; surveyed 616 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 9/13).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-          All Ind Wom
B. Obama 52% 49% 53%
J. McCain 40 36 39
B. Barr 2 na na
R. Nader 1 na na
Undec 5 na na


MINNESOTA
A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll; conducted 9/10-12 by Princeton Survey Research Assoc. Int'l; surveyed 1,106 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.9% (release, 9/14).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
Now 5/08
Obama/Biden 45% 51%
McCain/Palin 45 38
Undec 10 11


Is Palin/Biden Qualified To Become POTUS?
-              Palin   Biden
Yes, is 43% 66%
No, is not 45 20


NEW JERSEY
A Bergen Record poll; conducted 9/9-11 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/14).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-              Now 4/29
Obama/Biden 50% 48%
McCain/Palin 41 40
Undec 7 12
Fav/Unfav
S. Palin 47%/28%


A Marist College poll; conducted 9/5-8; surveyed 805 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 584 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 9/12).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-              All LVs Dem GOP Ind
Obama/Biden 47% 48% 83% 9% 51%
McCain/Palin 40 45 10 87 41
Other 1 * * * 1
Undec 12 7 7 4 7


How Strongly Do You Support That Ticket?
-                      All McCainVoters ObamaVoters
Strongly support 80% 80% 80%
Somewhat support 14 15 13
Might vote differently 5 5 6


Fav/Unfav
-          All     Dem    GOP     Ind    Men     Wom
B. Obama 62%/32% na na na na na
J. McCain 61 /32 na na na na na
J. Biden 58 /27 76%/13% 39%/48% 57%/25% 54%/33% 61%/23%
S. Palin 55 /29 38 /45 85 / 6 48 /36 55 /31 55 /27


Bush As POTUS
-              All Dem GOP Ind
Excellent/good 22% 6% 48% 18%
Fair/poor 77 94 52 82


NEW YORK
A Siena College poll; conducted 9/8-10; surveyed 626 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 9/15).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-         Now 8/14 7/10 6/11 5/08 4/08 2/08 1/08 6/07 5/07
B. Obama 46% 47% 50% 51% 49% 45% 47% 44% 49% 50%
J. McCain 41 39 37 33 38 40 40 42 35 33
Undec 13 14 13 17 14 15 13 15 16 18


Fav/Unfav
-          Now     8/14    7/10   6/11    5/08    4/08
B. Obama 56%/32% 54%/34% 57%/32% 58%/30% 55%/34% 54%/34%
H. Clinton 56 /39 51 /43 55 /38 56 /38 52 /43 48 /46
J. McCain 50 /37 49 /41 45 /42 42 /47 49 /39 54 /35
G. Bush 29 /65 na na na 23 /73 29 /65


Direction Of U.S.
-          Now 9/07
Right dir. 28% 23%
Wrong dir. 56 64


OHIO
A Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 9/10-13; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/15).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
McCain/Palin   46%
Obama/Biden 42
B. Barr 1
C. McKinney 1
R. Nader 1
Undec 7


OREGON
A Moore Information (R) poll; conducted 9/10-11; surveyed 400 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/15). Party ID Breakdown: 44%D, 33%R, 23%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
Obama/Biden    43%
McCain/Palin 37
Neither 6
Undec 14


UTAH
A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll; conducted 9/8-11 by Dan Jones & Assoc.; surveyed 601 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/14).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
J. McCain       62%
B. Obama 24
Other 3
Undec 9

Does Biden As VP Help/Hurt Obama's Chances?
Helps          29%
Hurts 19
No difference 47

Does Palin As VP Help/Hurt McCain's Chances?
Helps          73%
Hurts 12
No difference 11


WASHINGTON
An Elway Poll; conducted 9/6-8; surveyed 225 RVs; margin of error +/- 6.5% (Pollster.com, 9/12).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-         Now 7/31 5/29 3/20
B. Obama 46% 47% 44% 45%
J. McCain 38 35 38 39


SENATE
MN-SENATE
A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll; conducted 9/10-12 by Princeton Survey Research Assoc. Int'l; surveyed 1,106 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.9% (release, 9/14). Tested: Sen. Norm Coleman (R), entertainer Al Franken (D) and ex-Sen. Dean Barkley (i).

General Election Matchup
-              Now Ind 5/08
N. Coleman 41% 36% 51%
A. Franken 37 30 44
D. Barkley 13 24 na
Undec/other na na 5


Coleman As Sen.
-          Now 5/15 9/07 1/05 1/04 2/03
Approve 42% 45% 45% 47% 54% 46%
Disapprove 44 31 37 27 22 11


NEW JERSEY
A Bergen Record poll; conducted 9/9-11 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/14). Tested: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) and '96 nominee/ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer (R).
General Election Matchup
-              All Wom
F. Lautenberg 49% 52%
D. Zimmer 41 37
Other 1 na
Undec 9 na

Or Perhaps Not So Much

A Marist College poll; conducted 9/5-8; surveyed 805 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 584 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 9/12). Tested: Lautenberg and Zimmer.
General Election Matchup
-              All LVs Dem GOP Ind
F. Lautenberg 47% 51% 84% 11% 60%
D. Zimmer 36 40 9 80 33
Other 1 1 1 * *
Undec 16 8 6 9 7


How Strongly Do You Support That Candidate?
-                      All ZimmerVoters LautenbergVoters
Strongly support 45% 45% 45%
Somewhat support 37 39 36
Might vote differently 17 15 18


NEW JERSEY
A Bergen Record poll; conducted 9/9-11 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/14). Tested: Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and U.S. atty Christopher Christie (R).
Gov. '09 General Election Matchup
-              All Ind
J. Corzine 43% 40%
C. Christie 41 45
Undec 16 na


Corzine As Gov.
-              Now 4/08
Excellent/good 46% 38%
Fair/poor 50 58


NEW YORK
A Siena College poll; conducted 9/8-10; surveyed 626 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 9/15). Tested: Gov. David Paterson (D), NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I) and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R).
Gov. '10 General Election Matchups
-              Now 8/14 7/10 6/11 5/08 4/08
M. Bloomberg 45% 44% 45% 45% 45% 48%
D. Paterson 40 36 37 34 36 34
Undec 15 19 18 21 20 18


-              Now 8/14 7/10
D. Paterson 50% 48% 47%
R. Giuliani 40 38 40
Undec 10 15 13


If Paterson Runs For Gov. In '10, Would You Elect Him Or Would You Prefer Someone Else?
-              Now 8/14 7/10 6/11 5/08
Elect him 35% 35% 34% 30% 29%
Prefer another 25 26 27 30 25
Undec 39 40 40 40 47

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     8/14    7/10   6/11    5/08    4/08
M. Bloomberg 63%/16% 64%/18% 64%/20% 64%/21% 65%/19% 63%/21%
D. Paterson 59 /13 59 /16 57 /15 57 /17 48 /17 48 /18
H. Clinton 56 /39 51 /43 55 /38 56 /38 52 /43 48 /46
A. Cuomo 54 /24 54 /25 57 /23 57 /22 56 /25 55 /24

Paterson As Gov.
-              Now 8/14 7/10 6/11 5/08 4/08
Excellent/good 51% 52% 48% 44% 40% 34%
Fair/poor 37 35 39 37 32 34

Direction Of NY
-          Now 8/14 7/10 6/11 5/08 4/08 3/08 2/08 1/08
Right dir. 35% 34% 36% 30% 32% 33% 34% 33% 39%
Wrong dir. 37 44 39 46 43 48 41 43 38


UTAH
A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll; conducted 9/8-11 by Dan Jones & Assoc.; surveyed 601 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/14). Tested: Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. (R) and management consultant Bob Springmeyer (D).
General Election Matchup
-              Now 6/19 5/19
J. Huntsman 77% 78% 77%
B. Springmeyer 13 11 13
Other 1 2 1
Undec 9 8 8


WASHINGTON
An Elway Poll; conducted 9/6-8; surveyed 225 RVs; margin of error +/- 6.5% (Pollster.com, 9/12). Tested: Gov. Chris Gregoire (D) and '04 nominee Dino Rossi (R).
General Election Matchup
-           Now 7/31 6/22 4/22
C. Gregoire 48% 52% 47% 43%
D. Rossi 44 36 39 38


HOUSE
FL-08
A Kitchens Group (D) poll; conducted 9/3-6 for atty Alan Grayson (D); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/15). Tested: Grayson and Rep. Rick Keller (R).
General Election Matchup
A. Grayson      44%
R. Keller 40
Undec 16
Fav/Unfav
R. Keller 43%/35%
Direction Of U.S.
Right dir. 26%
Wrong dir. 65


WH '08 General Election Matchup
J. McCain       44%
B. Obama 44
Undec 10


IL-10
A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 9/10-11 for Rep. Mark Kirk (R); surveyed 300 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 6/10). Party ID Breakdown: 35%D, 33%R, 29%I. Tested: Kirk and '06 nominee Dan Seals (D).
General Election Matchup
-          Now 6/9 3/16
M. Kirk 51% 53% 50%
D. Seals 29 32 29
Undec 21 15 21

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     6/9     3/16
M. Kirk 63%/20% 67%/16% 61%/21%
D. Seals 36 /15 39 /16 36 /15


IN-03
A Cooper & Secrest (D) poll; conducted 9/9-10 for atty Mike Montagano (D); surveyed 504 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/12). Tested: Montagano and Rep. Mark Souder (R).
General Election Matchup
M. Souder       50%
M. Montagano 37
Undec 13


MN-06
An Alliance For A Better MN poll; conducted 8/19-21; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Wilson, Politico, 9/12). Tested: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) and '06 candidate/ex-MN Trans. Commis. Elwyn Tinklenberg (D).
General Election Matchups
M. Bachmann     40%
E. Tinklenberg 27


Generic Dem     45%
Generic GOPer 38

WH '08 General Election Matchup
B. Obama        41%
J. McCain 38
R. Nader 2
B. Barr 1
Sen. '08 General Election Matchup
N. Coleman 37%
A. Franken 35
D. Barkley 8


NJ-03
A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 9/8-9 for Medford Mayor Chris Myers (R); surveyed 300 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 9/15). Tested: Myers and state Sen. John Adler (D).
General Election Matchups
C. Myers        33%
J. Adler 29
Undec 37


Generic GOPer   38%
Generic Dem 35
Undec 28

Dem Congress Job Approval
Approve        29%
Disapprove 62

Fav/Unfav
J. Saxton       53%/16%
J. Corzine 32 /51
NJ Legislature 18 /45

WH '08 General Election Matchup
J. McCain       45%
B. Obama 42
Undec 14


PA-06
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 8/19-21 for Rep. Jim Gerlach (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/12). Tested: Gerlach and ret. businessman Robert Roggio (D).
General Election Matchup
-          Now 5/21
J. Gerlach 57% 56%
R. Roggio 28 30


Fav/Unfav
-          Now     5/21
J. Gerlach 61%/18% 58%/20%
R. Roggio 5 / 5 4 / 1

Name ID
-          Now 5/21
R. Roggio 10% 5%


UT-01
A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll; conducted 9/8-11 by Dan Jones & Assoc.; surveyed 197 RVs; margin of error +/- 7.0% (release, 9/13). Tested: Rep. Rob Bishop (R) and Cache Co. LDS seminary teacher Morgan Bowen (D).
General Election Matchup
-          Now 5/19
R. Bishop 62% 58%
M. Bowen 21 19
Other 3 3
Undec 13 19


UT-02
A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll; conducted 9/8-11 by Dan Jones & Assoc.; surveyed 213 RVs; margin of error +/- 6.7% (release, 9/13). Tested: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) and millionaire homebuilder Bill Dew (R).
General Election Matchup
-              Now 5/19
J. Matheson 62% 67%
B. Dew 27 20
Other 2 2
Undec 8 11


UT-03
A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll; conducted 9/8-11 by Dan Jones & Assoc.; surveyed 191 RVs; margin of error +/- 7.1% (release, 9/13). Tested: Gov. Huntsman ex-CoS Jason Chaffetz (R) and Neumont Univ. prof. Bennion Spencer (D).
General Election Matchup
-              Now 5/19
J. Chaffetz 60% 46%
B. Spencer 18 18
Other 2 na
Undec 20 na

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Thursday, 9/11


PRESIDENTIAL

ALABAMA

A Capital Survey Research Center poll; conducted 9/3-4 and 9/8-9; surveyed 606 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Kitchen, Montgomery Advertiser, 9/10).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           Now 8/4

J. McCain 55% 47%

B. Obama 35 34

R. Nader * 2

B. Barr * 1

Undec 9 16




FLORIDA

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 9/5-9; surveyed 1,032 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 9/11). "Cli" and "Oba" columns represent responses among Dem primary supporters of Hillary Clinton andBarack Obama, respectively.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Cli Oba 8/24 7/29 6/16

J. McCain 50% 91% 10% 50% 54% 47% 24% 2% 47% 44% 43%

B. Obama 43 7 83 43 41 45 69 96 43 46 47

Other 1 -- -- 1 -- 1 1 -- 2 2 2

Undec 6 3 7 6 5 7 6 2 8 7 8




Is Your Mind Made Up, Or Do You Think You Might Change Your Mind Before The Election?

- ObamaVoters McCainVoters

-              Now 8/24 7/29 6/16      Now 8/24 7/29 6/16

Mind made up 83% 83% 78% 79% 86% 84% 83% 79%

Might change 17 14 20 19 12 15 16 19




Fav/Unfav

-          All     GOP    Dem     Ind     8/24   7/29

J. McCain 58%/29% 88%/ 4% 24%/60% 61%/29% 55%/32% 51%/30%

B. Obama 49 /35 21 /65 79 / 8 51 /31 51 /36 50 /33

S. Palin 47 /23 79 / 5 15 /46 47 /18 na na

J. Biden 38 /28 14 /53 63 / 5 40 /26 na na




Bush As POTUS

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 8/24 7/29 6/16

Approve 33% 67% 5% 24% 37% 28% 32% 28% 27%

Disapprove 63 25 94 71 58 67 64 66 66




Which Issue Is The Single Most Important To Your WH '08 Choice?

-                  All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom

The economy 49% 39% 55 57% 47% 52%

The war in Iraq 12 7 19 10 12 11

Terrorism 11 21 2 11 13 9

Health care 9 3 16 8 8 10

Energy policy 8 14 4 6 9 6

Illegal immigration 3 4 -- 3 3 2

Other 4 5 2 3 4 4




MISSOURI

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 9/7-9; surveyed 940 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 9/10).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

McCain/Palin    50%

Obama/Biden 45

Neither 3

Other 1

Undec 1




MICHIGAN

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 9/7-9; surveyed 966 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 9/10).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

Obama/Biden     49%

McCain/Palin 45

Neither 4

Other *

Undec 2




NEW HAMPSHIRE

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 9/7-9; surveyed 899 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 9/10).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

Obama/Biden     51%

McCain/Palin 45

Neither 2

Other 1

Undec 1




NORTH CAROLINA

A Garin Hart Yang (D) poll; conducted 9/5-7 for LG Bev Perdue (D); surveyed 605 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Wilson, Politico, 9/10). Party ID Breakdown: 46%D, 35%R, 19%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

J. McCain       49%

B. Obama 46




OHIO

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 9/5-9; surveyed 1,367 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.7% (release, 9/11). "Cli" and "Oba" columns represent responses among Dem primary supporters of Hillary Clinton andBarack Obama, respectively.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Cli Oba 8/24 7/29 6/16

B. Obama 49% 10% 87% 43% 47% 52% 65% 90% 44% 46% 48%

J. McCain 44 86 10 47 47 42 28 8 43 44 42

Other 1 -- 1 1 1 1 1 -- 2 1 2

Undec 5 4 3 8 5 6 7 2 11 8 7




Is Your Mind Made Up, Or Do You Think You Might Change Your Mind Before The Election?

- ObamaVoters McCainVoters

-              Now 8/24 7/29 6/16      Now 8/24 7/29 6/16

Mind made up 81% 81% 77% 81% 85% 79% 80% 73%

Might change 16 18 22 18 13 18 19 24




Fav/Unfav

-          All     GOP    Dem     Ind     8/24   7/29

B. Obama 53%/33% 24%/65% 80%/ 9% 49%/31% 49%/32% 50%/34%

J. McCain 53 /34 87 / 9 22/ 61 58 /26 50 /34 52 /32

S. Palin 41 /22 77 / 5 12 /35 41 /23 na na

J. Biden 36 /22 16 /45 53 / 4 35 /20 na na




Bush As POTUS

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 8/24 7/29 6/16

Approve 30% 66% 5% 25% 32% 28% 33% 8% 30% 30% 22%

Disapprove 65 28 92 68 63 67 63 89 65 65 71




Which Issue Is The Single Most Important To Your WH '08 Choice?

-                  All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

The economy 52% 41% 61% 52% 48% 55% 50% 64%

Health care 11 6 17 8 7 14 10 19

The war in Iraq 10 10 12 10 12 8 11 4

Energy policy 9 13 6 9 13 6 9 7

Terrorism 8 16 2 9 9 8 9 1

Illegal immigration 4 5 1 6 4 3 4 3

Other 3 5 2 3 4 3 3 1




PENNSYLVANIA

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 9/5-9; surveyed 1,001 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 9/11). "Cli" and "Oba" columns represent responses among Dem primary supporters of Hillary Clinton andBarack Obama, respectively.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Cli Oba 8/24 7/29 6/16

B. Obama 48% 9% 82% 44% 45% 51% 72% 88% 49% 49% 52%

J. McCain 45 87 15 45 51 41 22 6 42 42 40

Other 1 -- 1 1 -- 1 1 -- 1 1 2

Undec 6 4 3 10 4 7 5 5 9 8 7




Is Your Mind Made Up, Or Do You Think You Might Change Your Mind Before The Election?

- ObamaVoters McCainVoters

-              Now 8/24 7/29 6/16      Now 8/24 7/29 6/16

Mind made up 81% 82% 78% 75% 77% 75% 75% 74%

Might change 17 17 19 24 22 23 24 24




Fav/Unfav

-          All     GOP    Dem     Ind     8/24   7/29

B. Obama 56%/29% 26%/58% 81%/ 8% 54%/26% 54%/27% 54%/25%

J. McCain 54 /34 87 / 7 30 /58 52 /28 50 /35 54 /28

J. Biden 53 /22 24 /44 74 / 5 54 /21 na na

S. Palin 39 /26 71 / 5 17 /40 32 /28 na na




Bush As POTUS

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 8/24 7/29 6/16

Approve 26% 58% 3% 23% 28% 24% 25% 24% 24%

Disapprove 70 37 96 69 69 71 70 70 72




Which Issue Is The Single Most Important To Your WH '08 Choice?

-                  All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom

The economy 51% 44% 59% 48% 49% 53%

The war in Iraq 12 11 14 11 12 12

Health care 11 5 15 10 8 14

Energy policy 10 15 5 13 16 5

Terrorism 8 16 1 8 9 6

Illegal immigration 3 4 2 6 3 3

Other 2 3 1 2 2 2




PA

A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 9/5-7; surveyed 1,200 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 9/11).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 7/27 4/20 4/13 4/6 3/30 3/9

Obama/Biden 47% 49% 40% 39% 41% 42% 44%

McCain/Palin 45 40 48 49 48 47 47

Other 3 na na na na na na

Undec 5 11 12 12 11 11 9




Fav/Unfav

S. Palin    51%/32%

J. McCain 49 /33

J. Biden 49 /36

B. Obama 48 /38




VIRGINIA

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 9/7-9; surveyed 920 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 9/10).

WH '08 General Election Matchups

McCain/Palin    50%

Obama/Biden 46

Neither 3

Other 1

Undec 1




WEST VIRGINIA

A Mark Blankenship Enterprises poll; conducted 9/5-8; surveyed 432 RVs; marign of error +/- 4.7% (Stump, Charleston Daily Mail, 9/10).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              All Ind

McCain/Palin 44% 51%

Obama/Biden 39 22

Undec 17 27




SENATE

KENTUCKY

A Voter/Consumer Research (R) poll; conducted 9/7-9 for Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R); surveyed 900 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 9/10). Tested: McConnell and '03/'07 GOV candidate/businessman Bruce Lunsford (D).

General Election Matchup

-              Now 6/17 5/23 1/9

M. McConnell 52% 50% 50% 52%

B. Lunsford 35 39 39 37




Fav/Unfav

-              Now     6/17    5/23   1/9     10/23

M. McConnell 52%/33% 54%/35% 55%/32% 56%/31% 55%/32%

B. Lunsford 30 /36 27 /22 34 /20 23 /12 na




Direction Of KY

Right dir.      28%

Wrong dir. 53




NORTH CAROLINA

A Garin Hart Yang (D) poll; conducted 9/5-7 for LG Bev Perdue (D); surveyed 605 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Wilson, Politico, 9/10). Party ID Breakdown: 46%D, 35%R, 19%I. Tested: Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and state Sen. Kay Hagan (D).

General Election Matchup

E. Dole         48%

K. Hagan 46




HOUSE

NJ-07

An Anzalone Liszt Research (D) poll; conducted 8/20-25; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/11). Tested: state Sen. Leonard Lance (R), '06 nominee/Assemb. Linda Stender (D), Bridgewater Councilor/'08 GOP candidate Michael Hsing (I) and activist/frequent candidate Tom Abrams (I).

General Election Matchups

L. Stender      36%

L. Lance 33

M. Hsing 9

T. Abrams 2

Undec 20




WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              Now 4/08

J. McCain 45% 48%

B. Obama 43 40




Fav/Unfav

G. Bush     34%/64%




MN-02

An Alliance For A Better MN poll; conducted 8/18-20; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/11). Tested: Rep. John Kline (R) and ex-Watertown mayor/Iraq vet Steve Sarvi (D).

General Election Matchup

J. Kline        37%

S. Sarvi 33

Undec 30
 
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