Tuesday, 9/30

PRESIDENTIAL
NEVADA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/27-29; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/30). Party ID Breakdown: 43%D, 40%R, 17%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+ 9/14
McCain/Palin   49% 13% 91% 39% 52% 46% 45%   55% 49%
Obama/Biden    47  85   5  48  40  53  51   41  46
Other           1  --  --   1   2  --  1    --  --
Undec           4   2   4   7   6  2   5     4   5

NORTH CAROLINA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/27-29; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/30). Party ID Breakdown: 44%D, 33%R, 23%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 9/16
McCain/Palin    49% 17% 93% 46% 56% 42% 63%  6% 52%
Obama/Biden     46  78   4  46  38  54  32  91  41
Other            1   1  --   3   2  --   1  --   1
Undec            4   4   3   5  4   4    4   3   6

PENNSYLVANIA
An Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll; conducted 9/24-28; surveyed 581 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 9/29). Party ID Breakdown: 52%D, 38%R, 8%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           Now 9/28 9/27 9/26
B. Obama    49% 48%  47%  47%
J. McCain   42  42   42   43
Other        2   2    2    2
Undec        7   8    9    8

Fav/Unfav

J. Biden    51%/30%
B. Obama    51 /35
J. McCain   47 /36
S. Palin    42 /38

TENNESSEE
A Middle TN State Univ. poll; conducted 9/15-27; surveyed 635 adults; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Subsample of 357 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.2% (release, 9/29).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All LVs
McCain/Palin    48% 55%
Obama/Biden     36  35
Undec           10   7

VIRGINIA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/27-29; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/30). Party ID Breakdown: 37%R, 36%D, 27%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 9/20
McCain/Palin    49% 16% 80% 49% 51% 46% 64%  7% 48%
Obama/Biden     46  80  17  42  45  48  31  89  46
Other            1  --  --   5   1   1   1  --  --
Undec            4   4   3   4   3   5   4   4   5

SENATE
GEORGIA
A Mellman Group (D) poll; conducted 9/24-28 for the DSCC; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/29). Tested: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R), '06 LG nominee/atty/ex-state Rep. Jim Martin (D) and atty Allen Buckley (L).

General Election Matchup

S. Chambliss        37%
J. Martin           34
A. Buckley           3

TENNESSEE
A Middle TN State Univ. poll; conducted 9/15-27; surveyed 357 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.2% (release, 9/29). Tested: Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) and ex-TN Dem chair Bob Tuke (D).
General Election Matchup

L. Alexander    50%
B. Tuke         26
Undec          23

TENNESSEE
A Chattanooga Times Free Press poll; conducted 9/22-24 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (AP, 9/29). Tested: Alexander and Tuke.
General Election Matchup

L. Alexander    57%
B. Tuke         33
Undec          10

HOUSE
ME-01
A Moore Information (R) poll; conducted 9/21-22 for Iraq vet/ex-Small Business Admin regional chief Charles Summers (R); surveyed 401 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/29). Tested: Summers and '02 SEN nominee Chellie Pingree (D).
General Election Matchup

C. Pingree      44%
C. Summers      33
Undec          22

Fav/Unfav

C. Pingree      43%/20%
C. Summers      31 /13

PA-10
A Lycoming College poll; conducted 9/21-25; surveyed 460 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.6% (Rubinkam, AP, 9/29). Tested: Rep. Chris Carney (D) and One Source Staffing Solutions Pres. Chris Hackett (R).

General Election Matchup

C. Carney       46%
C. Hackett      36
Undec           18

FL-25
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/23-25 for Daily Kos; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/29). Tested: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) and ex-Cuban American National Foundation dir./Miami-Dade Co. Dem Chair Joe Garcia (D).
General Election Matchup

-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht His Blk
M. Diaz-Balart  45% 48% 42% 10% 80% 42% 46% 48%  6%
J. Garcia       41  37  45 82   6  38  40  41  63
Other           1   1   1  --   1   2  1   1  --
Undec          13  14  12   8 13  18  13  10  31

Fav/Unfav

-              All     Dem    GOP     Ind
J. Garcia       47%/29% 64%/16% 30%/44% 49%/24%
M. Diaz-Balart  45 /34  28 /52  64 /17  41 /36

MI-09
A Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 8/17-19 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 9/30). Tested: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R), ex-MI lottery commissioner/state Sen. Gary Peters (D) and assisted suicide advocate Jack Kevorkian (I).

General Election Matchup

G. Peters           41%
J. Knollenberg      37
J. Kevorkian         8
Undec               14