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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

House 2010

LA-02
A Zata 3 Consulting (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/24-27 for state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D); surveyed 341 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.3% (release, 6/28). Tested: Richmond and state Rep. Juan LaFonta.

Primary Election Matchup
C. Richmond  53%
J. LaFonta 13
Undec 34

Fav/Unfav
C. Richmond  58%/17%
J. LaFonta 36 /14

Governor 2010

California
A Thomson Reuters poll; conducted 6/25-27 by Ipsos Public Affairs; surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/29). Party ID breakdown: 47%D, 39%R, 10%I. Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

General Election Matchup
J. Brown      45%
M. Whitman 39
Other 3
Undec 14

How Much Interest Do You Have In Following News About The Campaigns For The Midterm Elections In CA?
-             All Dem GOP Ind
A great deal 32% 29% 38% 20%
Quite a bit 28 28 26 25
Only some 26 28 25 23
Very little 11 12 8 20
No interest 4 3 3 10

Hawaii
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/30). Tested: Ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D), Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D), LG Duke Aiona (R) and '02 candidate/'00 SEN nominee/'02/'03 HI-02 candidate/ex-state Sen./ex-HI GOP chair John Carroll (R).

General Election Matchups
-               Now 3/24
N. Abercrombie 58% 54%
D. Aiona 32 31
Other 3 6
Undec 6 9

-               Now 3/24
M. Hannemann 52% 50%
D. Aiona 30 29
Other 9 14
Undec 9 7

N. Abercrombie  59%
J. Carroll 30
Other 4
Undec 6

Fav/Unfav
-               Now     3/24
N. Abercrombie 62%/33% 63%/33%
M. Hannemann 58 /35 57 /39
D. Aiona 49 /41 50 /41
J. Carroll 27 /35 n/a

Ohio
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/26-27; surveyed 482 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 6/29). Tested: Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/21 6/09 1/09
J. Kasich 43% 16% 73% 45% 44% 43% 42% 42% 39%
T. Strickland 41 72 12 26 42 40 37 44 45
Undec 16 12 14 28 14 17 21 14 16

Strickland As Gov.
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/21 6/09 1/09
Approve 37% 61% 9% 36% 37% 36% 33% 43% 48%
Disapprove 48 22 79 47 50 47 47 42 35

Fav/Unfav
-          All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/21    6/09
J. Kasich 28%/30% 13%/41% 46%/19% 30%/29% 25%/24% 31%/30%

Senate 2010

California
A Thomson Reuters poll; conducted 6/25-27 by Ipsos Public Affairs; surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/29). Party ID breakdown: 47%D, 39%R, 10%I. Tested: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R).

General Election Matchup
B. Boxer      45%
C. Fiorina 41
Other 1
Undec 13

How Much Interest Do You Have In Following News About The Campaigns For The Midterm Elections In CA?
-             All Dem GOP Ind
A great deal 32% 29% 38% 20%
Quite a bit 28 28 26 25
Only some 26 28 25 23
Very little 11 12 8 20
No interest 4 3 3 10

Hawaii
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/29). Tested: Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) and social worker John Roco (R).

General Election Matchup
D. Inouye  68%
J. Roco 20
Other 3
Undec 8

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     3/24
D. Inouye 73%/23% 76%/20%
J. Roco 19 /35 n/a

Missouri
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/28; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/30). Tested: Rep. Roy Blunt (R-07) and Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 6/2 5/3 4/6 3/9 2/10 1/19 12/17 9/21
R. Blunt 48% 45% 50% 48% 47% 49% 49% 44% 46%
R. Carnahan 43 44 42 42 41 42 43 46 46
Other 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 4 2
Undec 6 6 4 7 8 6 5 6 5

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     6/2     5/3     4/6     3/9     2/10
R. Blunt 54%/33% 54%/38% 56%/36% 49%/43% 56%/37% 54%/40%
R. Carnahan 51 /42 52 /40 48 /47 47 /46 47 /48 49 /45

Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/22-27; surveyed 1,107 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5% (release, 6/30). Tested: LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-Rep./ex-OMB Dir. Rob Portman (R).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13
L. Fisher 42% 84% 6% 37% 37% 46% 40% 41% 37% 36% 42%
R. Portman 40 5 81 39 49 32 37 37 40 39 31
Other 1 -- -- 2 2 -- 1 1 -- -- 1
Not vote 1 1 -- 1 -- 1 1 1 2 1 1
Undec 17 9 13 21 11 21 21 21 21 24 26

Fisher As LG
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13
Approve 41% 58% 26% 39% 39% 42% 42% 43% 39% 39% 44%
Disapprove 26 10 39 31 33 21 27 23 22 23 21

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/26    3/29
L. Fisher 28%/17% 48%/ 4% 9%/31% 25%/20% 27%/13% 27%/13%
R. Portman 26 / 7 9 /12 46 / 2 24 / 7 25 / 8 25 / 8

Would You Like To See The Next Sen. Generally Support/Oppose Obama's Policies?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29
Support 46% 85% 11% 41% 41% 50% 45% 44%
Oppose 48 11 86 50 54 43 48 46

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You Trust To Do More In Office What They Say They Will Do During The Campaign?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
R. Portman 33% 12% 62% 32% 44% 24%
L. Fisher 30 55 6 27 28 31
No diff 5 3 3 7 5 5
Undec 33 31 29 34 23 41

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You Believe Most Shares Your Values?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
R. Portman 36% 12% 67% 34% 47% 27%
L. Fisher 31 58 7 26 29 33
No diff 3 2 2 5 3 4
Undec 30 27 24 34 22 37

Marist College Poll 2010

Oil Spill
Conducted 6/17-24; surveyed 813 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 6/30).

Would You Say Obama's Response To The Oil Spill In The Gulf Of Mexico Is Better/Worse/About The Same As George W. Bush's Response To Hurricane Katrina? (RVs)
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Better 37% 59% 14% 33% 34% 39%
Worse 23 5 36 29 25 21
About same 34 28 44 34 36 33

Obama Handling Oil Spill In The Gulf Of Mexico (RVs)
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 46% 70% 29% 38% 45% 48%
Disapprove 53 28 70 62 55 52

BP Handling Oil Spill In The Gulf Of Mexico (RVs)
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 17% 17% 22% 15% 17% 17%
Disapprove 83 83 78 86 83 82

Do You Support/Oppose A Moratorium On Drilling For New Oil Supplies In Currently Protected Areas Offshore, That Is, Do You Support/Oppose Temporarily Suspending New Offshore Drilling? (RVs)
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Support 46% 57% 35% 42% 42% 49%
Oppose 45 33 57 49 53 39

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Governor 2010

Alabama
A Dresner, Wicker & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 6/24, 26-27 for state Rep. Robert Bentley (R); surveyed 450 GOP primary runoff LVs; margin of error +/- 4.6% (Burns, Politico, 6/29). Tested: Bentley and ex-AL Community College Chancellor/ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R).

Primary Runoff Election Matchup
R. Bentley  46%
B. Byrne 27

Fav/Unfav
R. Bentley  59%/ 9%
B. Byrne 43 /24

Kansas
A KCTV-TV/KWCH-TV poll; conducted 6/24-27 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 721 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 6/28). Tested: Sen. Sam Brownback/'02 KS-03 candidate/state Sen. Jeff Colyer and ex-homebuilder/ex-Boeing employee Joan Heffington/pastor Mark Holick.

Primary Election Matchup
-                  All Men Wom
Brownback/Colyer 76% 79% 72%
Heffington/Holick 17 17 18
Undec 7 5 10

New York
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/29). Tested: AG Andrew Cuomo (D), '00 SEN nominee/JPMorgan exec. VP/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) and atty/developer Carl Paladino (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 4/27 3/29 3/1 1/21 11/17 9/22
A. Cuomo 55% 56% 52% 55% 54% 57% 65%
R. Lazio 28 24 29 30 35 29 26
Other 4 6 6 5 5 6 5
Undec 13 14 13 10 7 9 5

-            Now 4/27 3/29 3/1
A. Cuomo 55% 55% 51% 56%
C. Paladino 25 25 28 27
Other 6 5 6 6
Undec 13 15 15 11

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     4/27    3/29    3/1     1/21    11/17
A. Cuomo 63%/31% 65%/28% 60%/31% 64%/29% 62%/29% 56%/34%
R. Lazio 49 /32 38 /38 46 /32 40 /34 45 /34 36 /44
C. Paladino 35 /32 27 /41 31 /31 30 /33 n/a n/a

Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/22-27; surveyed 1,107 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 6/29). Tested: Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21 11/9
T. Strickland 43% 81% 6% 40% 38% 47% 44% 43% 44% 40%
J. Kasich 38 4 81 37 46 32 38 38 39 40
Other 2 2 -- 4 2 3 1 1 1 1
Not vote 2 2 1 2 1 2 -- 1 2 1
Undec 15 11 11 16 13 16 17 17 15 18

Strickland As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13
Approve 44% 66% 24% 44% 45% 44% 47% 49% 48% 45% 48%
Disapprove 42 17 67 46 48 38 38 40 40 43 42

Fav/Unfav
-               All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/26
T. Strickland 42%/37% 68%/10% 17%/62% 41%/41% 45%/32%
J. Kasich 29 /19 6 /32 53 / 5 28 /19 27 /10

Strickland Handling Economy
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13
Approve 33% 54% 17% 32% 33% 34% 36% 35% 35% 33% 33%
Disapprove 54 27 73 61 57 51 53 52 53 52 54

Strickland Handling OH Budget
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21 9/13 7/1
Approve 31% 50% 16% 31% 33% 30% 36% 37% 32% 36% 32%
Disapprove 52 30 70 57 54 51 48 47 51 47 53

Do You Think Strickland Has Kept His Campaign Promises So Far?
-       All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1
Yes 31% 46% 16% 29% 35% 28% 37% 36% 34% 32% 37% 34%
No 48 29 64 53 48 48 41 41 45 43 40 40

Who Would Do A Better Job Rebuilding OH's Economy?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21 11/9
J. Kasich 39% 11% 72% 42% 46% 34% 41% 38% 41% 41%
T. Strickland 38 68 11 34 35 40 39 38 35 33
No difference 4 3 3 6 4 4 2 2 2 --
Undec 19 19 14 19 14 23 18 22 22 27

Who Would Do A Better Job Handling OH's Budget?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21 11/9
J. Kasich 41% 12% 75% 42% 47% 37% 40% 39% 42% 42%
T. Strickland 37 68 9 35 34 39 39 38 36 34
No difference 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 2 1 --
Undec 18 17 13 19 16 20 19 21 21 25

Who Do You Trust More To Do In Office What They Say They Will Do During The Campaign?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21
T. Strickland 37% 69% 9% 33% 34% 40% 41% 40% 35%
J. Kasich 36 9 71 35 40 32 35 35 36
No difference 8 7 6 12 8 9 7 5 6
Undec 19 15 14 20 18 19 18 20 22

Who Do You Believe Most Shares Your Values?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/26 3/29 2/21
T. Strickland 39% 73% 8% 36% 35% 42% 42% 42% 40%
J. Kasich 38 10 75 37 45 33 36 34 36
No difference 4 3 2 6 4 4 3 2 3
Undec 19 14 15 20 16 21 19 22 21

Utah
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/28). Tested: Gov. Gary Herbert (R) and Salt Lake Co. Mayor Peter Corroon (D). (Note: Portions of this poll also appeared in 6/28's Hotline).

Special Election Matchup
-           Now 4/8
G. Herbert 58% 57%
P. Corroon 31 29
Other 2 4
Undec 8 10

Herbert As Gov.
-           Now 4/8
Approve 72% 70%
Disapprove 25 27

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/8
G. Herbert 70%/23% 72%/23%
P. Corroon 50 /32 47 /35

Wyoming
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/25). Tested: WY DoT Aeronautics Division operations officer/sr. pilot/ex-Univ. Of WY football player Pete Gosar (D), state Dem Chair Leslie Petersen (D), ex-U.S. Atty Matt Mead (R), Aud. Rita Meyer (R), rancher/ex-WY Dept. of Ag. dir./ex-state House Maj. Leader Ron Micheli (R) and state House Speaker Colin Simpson (R).

General Election Matchups
M. Mead      49%              M. Mead      51%
L. Petersen 22 P. Gosar 23
Other 13 Other 14
Undec 16 Undec 12

R. Meyer     51%              R. Meyer     52%
L. Petersen 23 P. Gosar 23
Other 11 Other 12
Undec 15 Undec 13

R. Micheli   47%              R. Micheli   46%
L. Petersen 27 P. Gosar 28
Other 11 Other 13
Undec 15 Undec 14

C. Simpson   44%              C. Simpson   51%
L. Petersen 28 P. Gosar 24
Other 14 Other 12
Undec 15 Undec 13

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     3/25
M. Mead 55%/23% 39%/19%
C. Simpson 52 /24 56 /20
R. Meyer 44 /33 50 /20
R. Micheli 40 /29 38 /18
L. Petersen 33 /36 n/a
P. Gosar 31 /32 n/a

Senate 2010

Kansas
A KCTV-TV/KWCH-TV poll; conducted 6/24-27 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 364 Dem primary LVs and 721 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 5.1% and 3.6%, respectively (release, 6/28). Tested: '04 candidate/'06 KS-03 Reform nominee/ret. railroad employee Bob Conroy (D), '02/'06 Sec/State nominee/state Sen. David Haley (D), Baker Univ. ass't dean Lisa Johnston (D), ex-newspaper ed. Charles Schollenberger (D), CPA/atty Patrick Wiesner (D), accountant Tom Little (R), ex-AG Robert Londerholm (R) and Reps. Jerry Moran (R-01) and Todd Tiahrt (R-04).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-                  All Men Wom
L. Johnston 24% 19% 27%
C. Schollenberger 16 19 14
B. Conroy 11 15 8
D. Haley 11 13 9
P. Wiesner 4 3 4
Undec 35 32 37

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-                  All Men Wom 5/23 3/28 1/31 12/6 10/4 8/9
J. Moran 53% 57% 47% 52% 42% 40% 37% 43% 38%
T. Tiahrt 33 33 34 29 32 33 34 27 32
T. Little 3 3 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
R. Londerholm 2 1 3 4 5 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 9 7 13 15 21 27 29 30 40

Louisiana
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/29). Tested: Sen. David Vitter (R) and Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-03).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 4/7 3/10 2/10 1/14 10/5
D. Vitter 53% 52% 57% 57% 53% 46%
C. Melancon 35 36 34 33 35 36
Other 3 4 3 3 4 5
Undec 9 8 6 7 8 13

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     4/7     3/10    2/10    1/14    10/5
D. Vitter 62%/32% 60%/37% 63%/32% 67%/26% 61%/33% 56%/34%
C. Melancon 48 /39 46 /41 43 /44 39 /45 39 /46 43 /39

Wisconsin
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/26-27; surveyed 638 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 6/29). Party ID breakdown: 33%D, 32%R, 34%I. Tested: Sen. Russ Feingold (D), businessman Ron Johnson (R) and businessman/Army vet Dave Westlake (R).

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
R. Feingold 45% 83% 11% 39% 42% 46%
R. Johnson 43 8 78 46 48 40
Undec 12 9 11 15 9 14

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/21 11/22
R. Feingold 45% 84% 12% 39% 42% 48% 48% 47%
D. Westlake 38 6 72 36 42 34 31 32
Undec 17 10 16 25 16 18 21 21

Feingold As Sen.
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/21 11/22
Approve 42% 71% 16% 39% 40% 45% 45% 45%
Disapprove 42 10 72 46 50 36 41 37

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/21    11/22
R. Johnson 20%/18% 6%/29% 33%/11% 19%/14% n/a n/a
D. Westlake 6 /14 2 /20 10 /12 6 /11 2%/ 8% 2%/ 9%

Monday, June 28, 2010

Governor 2010

Massachusetts
A Boston Globe poll; conducted 6/17-23 by the UNH Survey Center; surveyed 558 adults; margin of error +/- 4.2%. Subsample of 497 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/27). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 45%D, 28%R, 25%I. Tested: Gov. Deval Patrick (D), Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO/ex-MA HHS/Finance sec. Charlie Baker (R), Treas. Tim Cahill (I) and '02 candidate Jill Stein (G). (Note: Trends from 1/6 are among SEN special election LVs.)

General Election Matchup (LVs)
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/6 7/21
D. Patrick 38% 64% 10% 24% 35% 42% 30% 30%
C. Baker 31 9 65 28 38 24 19 20
T. Cahill 9 7 7 15 10 8 23 30
J. Stein 2 3 1 3 2 3 n/a n/a
Other 2 2 1 4 2 2 1 4
Undec 17 14 16 26 14 21 28 15

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/6     7/21
D. Patrick 43%/45% 63%/26% 19%/72% 34%/52% 39%/50% 36%/52%
T. Cahill 21 /30 20 /31 27 /29 17 /30 39 /15 42 /17
C. Baker 20 /20 9 /31 36 / 3 19 /19 19 /13 16 /14

Patrick As Gov.
-           All LVs Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/6 7/21
Approve 42% 41% 63% 20% 29% 39% 45% 41% 35%
Disapprove 49 51 26 74 63 55 42 52 56

Does Patrick's Four Years As Gov. Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Him, Or Will This Make Little Difference In Your Vote? (LVs)
-                   All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 30% 48% 13% 18% 28% 32%
Less likely 46 26 70 52 48 43
Little difference 20 23 13 25 19 21

Does Cahill's Four Years As Treas. Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Him, Or Will This Make Little Difference In Your Vote? (LVs)
-                   All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 15% 16% 14% 15% 12% 18%
Less likely 30 29 38 24 32 28
Little difference 45 47 40 46 48 42

Does Baker's Record As An Ex-Health Insurance Co. CEO Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Him, Or Will This Make Little Difference In Your Vote? (LVs)
-                   All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 20% 12% 36% 16% 23% 18%
Less likely 30 43 11 31 30 31
Little difference 37 35 43 36 37 37

Who Do You Trust More To Handle The State's Budget And Fiscal Problems?
-                   All LVs Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
State legislature 30% 30% 31% 34% 24% 22% 37%
D. Patrick 29 29 40 13 25 36 22
Both equally 8 8 10 4 10 7 9
Neither 27 27 11 43 37 30 24
Undec 6 6 8 6 3 4 8

Patrick Has Brought Reform To Beacon Hill
-           All LVs Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Agree 28% 28% 39% 16% 21% 23% 32%
Disagree 55 57 42 70 61 64 46

Nevada
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/25). Tested: Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D) and ex-U.S. District Judge/ex-NV AG/ex-NV Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 6/9 4/27 3/31 3/3 2/3
B. Sandoval 55% 54% 53% 55% 53% 45%
R. Reid 33 31 35 34 35 33
Other 8 3 6 6 7 11
Undec 4 13 5 4 5 12

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     6/9     4/27    3/31    3/3     2/3
B. Sandoval 62%/27% 62%/29% 53%/28% 49%/29% 55%/30% 53%/30%
R. Reid 42 /48 42 /50 43 /48 36 /53 43 /48 40 /52

South Carolina
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/28). Tested: State Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 6/10
N. Haley 52% 55%
V. Sheheen 40 34
Other 3 5
Undec 5 6

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     6/10    12/2
N. Haley 70%/26% 63%/26% n/a
V. Sheheen 50 /35 46 /36 30%/34%

Utah
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/25).

Herbert As Gov.
-           Now 4/8
Approve 72% 70%
Disapprove 25 27

Senate 2010

North Carolina
A WRAL-TV poll; conducted 6/23-24 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 617 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 6/25). Party ID breakdown: 39%D, 38%R, 22%I. Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) and businessman/motivational speaker Mike Beitler (L).

General Election Matchup
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
R. Burr 50% 18% 87% 46% 55% 44% 57% 16%
E. Marshall 40 74 7 35 34 47 34 73
M. Beitler 6 3 4 12 8 3 6 3
Undec 5 4 2 7 4 6 3 8

Utah
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/25). Tested: UT Alcohol & Bev. Control Commis. chair/deli chain owner Sam Granato (D) and ex-Jon Huntsman gen. counsel Mike Lee (R).

General Election Matchup
M. Lee      58%
S. Granato 28
Other 5
Undec 9

Fav/Unfav
M. Lee      58%/32%
S. Granato 37 /33

Friday, June 25, 2010

House 2010

KS-04
A KWCH-TV poll; conducted 6/21-23 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 301 Dem primary LVs and 609 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 5.6 and 4.0%, respectively (release, 6/24). Tested: State Rep. Raj Goyle (D), retiree Robert Tillman (D), retired pilot Jim Anderson (R), businessman Wink Hartman (R), RNC Cmteman/businessman Mike Pompeo (R), Paij Rutschman (R) and state Sen. Jean Schodorf (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-             All Men Wom
R. Goyle 42% 49% 36%
R. Tillman 32 33 32
Undec 26 18 32

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 2/24
M. Pompeo 39% 42% 35% 10%
W. Hartman 37 38 37 36
J. Schodorf 9 6 11 10
J. Anderson 6 7 5 6
P. Rutschman 1 0 1 n/a
Other n/a n/a n/a 23
Undec 8 6 11 15

MA-10
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 6/16-17 for state Rep. Jeff Perry (R); surveyed 300 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 6/25). Tested: Perry and ex-Treas. Joe Malone.

Primary Election Matchup
J. Perry   41%
J. Malone 25
Other 3
Undec 30

Fav/Unfav
J. Perry   44%/ 1%

Governor 2010

Oregon
A Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. poll; conducted 6/17-20; surveyed 399 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Redden, Portland Tribune, 6/21). Tested: Ex-Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley (R) and ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D).

General Election Matchup
C. Dudley     41%
J. Kitzhaber 41
Other 6
Undec 12

Senate 2010

Arizona
A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/22; surveyed 1,139 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 2.9% (release, 6/24). Tested: Sen. John McCain and ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

Primary Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom
J. McCain 52% 46% 56%
J.D. Hayworth 29 34 24
Other 14 15 13
Undec 6 5 7

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Men     Wom
J. McCain 60%/37% 54%/44% 66%/30%
J.D. Hayworth 38 /50 43 /50 33 /51

North Carolina
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/24). Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R) and Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 6/3 5/5 4/19 3/22 2/23 1/27 9/15
R. Burr 44% 50% 48% 53% 51% 50% 47% 48%
E. Marshall 43 36 40 32 35 34 37 38
Other 7 6 3 6 6 4 6 3
Undec 6 8 9 12 8 12 10 11

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     6/3     5/5     4/19    3/22    2/23
R. Burr 53%/37% 54%/34% 57%/33% 55%/31% 60%/26% 60%/28%
E. Marshall 48 /36 41 /39 45 /37 36 /40 38 /39 44 /32

Oregon
A Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. poll; conducted 6/17-20; surveyed 399 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Redden, Portland Tribune, 6/21). Tested: Sen. Ron Wyden (D) and Lewis & Clark law prof. Jim Huffman (R).

General Election Matchup
R. Wyden    50%
J. Huffman 32
Other 4
Undec 14

Vermont
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/23). Tested: Sen. Pat Leahy (D) and lumber store owner Len Britton (R).

General Election Matchup
P. Leahy    64%
L. Britton 29
Other 3
Undec 4

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/18
P. Leahy 69%/30% 66%/32%
L. Britton 26 /32 n/a

Washington
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/25). Tested: Sen. Patty Murray (D), businessman Paul Akers (R), farmer/ex-Redskins tight end Clint Didier (R) and '04/'08 GOV nominee Dino Rossi (R).

General Election Matchups
-          Now 5/26 5/4 4/6  
P. Murray 48% 47% 49% 45%
P. Akers 38 32 35 37
Other 4 6 6 5
Undec 10 15 10 13

-          Now 5/26 5/4 4/6 3/9 2/11
P. Murray 48% 47% 51% 47% 49% 49%
C. Didier 40 37 36 37 30 34
Other 6 6 4 5 6 4
Undec 6 10 8 11 15 13

-          Now 5/26 5/4 4/6 3/9 2/11
P. Murray 47% 48% 48% 48% 46% 46%
D. Rossi 47 47 46 46 49 48
Other 3 2 2 3 3 1
Undec 3 4 3 4 2 5

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     5/26    5/4     4/6     3/9     2/11
P. Murray 54%/43% 52%/44% 52%/44% 53%/43% 53%/41% 51%/45%
D. Rossi 52 /44 52 /43 52 /44 52 /44 51 /45 54 /41
C. Didier 37 /31 33 /31 28 /31 26 /29 27 /26 28 /28
P. Akers 33 /32 27 /33 31 /29 29 /27 n/a n/a

PEW Research Center

Energy/Environment
Conducted 6/16-20 by ABT-SRBI Inc.; surveyed 1,802 adults; margin of error +/- 2.3% (release, 6/24). Party ID breakdown: 34%D, 27%R, 34%I.

Obama Handling The Oil Leak In The Gulf Of Mexico
-           Now 5/9
Approve 39% 38%
Disapprove 52 36

Obama Handling Energy Policy
-           Now 4/26 1/10 11/8 7/26
Approve 45% 43% 45% 50% 46%
Disapprove 40 34 35 34 31

There Needs To Be Stronger Laws And Regulations To Protect The Environment
-           Now 4/09 1/07 8/03 8/02 9/99 11/97 7/94 6/92
Agree 81% 83% 83% 86% 83% 83% 81% 82% 90%
Disagree 17 16 15 13 16 16 18 17 9

People Should Be Willing To Pay Higher Prices In Order To Protect The Environment
-           Now 4/09 1/07 8/03 8/02 9/99 11/97 7/94 5/93 6/92
Agree 49% 49% 60% 65% 62% 56% 55% 57% 57% 67%
Disagree 47 48 37 34 36 42 43 42 41 32

Do You Favor/Oppose Gov't Allowing More Offshore Oil And Gas Drilling In U.S. Waters?
-       Now 5/9 2/9 4/09 9/08
Favor 44% 54% 63% 68% 67%
Oppose 52 38 31 27 28

Do You Favor/Oppose Gov't Promoting The Increased Use Of Nuclear Power?
-       Now 5/9 2/9 4/09 9/08 2/08 2/06 9/05
Favor 47% 45% 52% 45% 50% 44% 44% 39%
Oppose 47 44 41 48 43 48 49 53

Do You Favor/Oppose Increasing Federal Funding For Research On Wind, Solar And Hydrogen Technology?
-       Now 5/9 2/9 4/09 9/08 2/08 2/06
Favor 75% 73% 78% 82% 82% 81% 82%
Oppose 21 22 17 15 14 14 14

Do You Favor/Oppose Requiring That New Homes And Buildings Meet Higher Efficiency Standards? (Half Sample)
Favor   78%
Oppose 18

Thursday, June 24, 2010

House 2010

KS-01
A KWCH-TV poll; conducted 6/18-21 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 475 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 6/22). Tested: '06 GOV nominee/doctor/state Sen. Jim Barnett, prof. Sue Boldra, atty Marck Cobb, state Sen. Tim Huelskamp, real-estate agent Tracy Mann and ex-Sen. Brownback CoS Rob Wasinger.

Primary Election Matchup
-             All Men Wom 2/22
J. Barnett 23% 23% 23% 23%
T. Mann 20 19 22 4
T. Huelskamp 18 18 19 16
R. Wasinger 11 12 9 8
S. Boldra 8 9 8 5
M. Cobb 3 3 4 2
Other n/a n/a n/a 19
Undec 16 16 15 23

OK-02
A Lake Research Partners (D) poll; conducted 6/14-17 for state Sen. Jim Wilson (D); surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/21). Tested: Wilson and Rep. Dan Boren.

Primary Election Matchup
D. Boren   62%
J. Wilson 17

Governor 2010

New Mexico
A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/21; surveyed 542 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.2% (release, 6/23). Party ID breakdown: 53%D, 35%R, 12%I. Tested: LG Diane Denish (D) and Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R).

General Election Matchup
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
S. Martinez 44% 20% 82% 41% 53% 36%
D. Denish 43 61 8 36 36 48
Undec 14 14 10 23 11 16

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
S. Martinez 45%/34% 30%/47% 72%/ 9% 31%/46% 52%/32% 39%/35%
D. Denish 40 /41 59 /19 13 /73 36 /43 34 /51 45 /32

Pennsylvania
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/19-21; surveyed 609 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/23). Party ID breakdown: 50%D, 42%R, 8%I. Tested: AG Tom Corbett (R) and Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D).

General Election Matchup
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/1
T. Corbett 45% 21% 74% 44% 47% 43% 45%
D. Onorato 35 57 12 20 34 36 32
Undec 20 22 14 36 19 21 23

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/1
T. Corbett 31%/19% 19%/24% 46%/13% 24%/17% 27%/20%
D. Onorato 22 /25 33 /15 11 /35 12 /26 15 /13

Vermont
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/23). Tested: State Sen. Susan Bartlett (D), Sec/State Deb Markowitz (D), '02 nominee/state Sen./ex-LG Doug Racine (D), '02 LG nominee/state Senate Pres. Pro Tem Peter Shumlin (D) and LG Brian Dubie (R).

General Election Matchups
-             Now 3/18
B. Dubie 55% 52%
S. Bartlett 29 26
Other 8 7
Undec 9 14

-             Now 3/18
B. Dubie 47% 46%
D. Markowitz 40 39
Other 6 4
Undec 8 10

-             Now 3/18
B. Dubie 52% 51%
M. Dunne 32 29
Other 7 6
Undec 10 14

-             Now 3/18
B. Dubie 51% 48%
D. Racine 36 35
Other 5 5
Undec 7 12

-             Now 3/18
B. Dubie 55% 51%
P. Shumlin 36 33
Other 6 6
Undec 4 10

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     3/18
B. Dubie 61%/30% 61%/29%
D. Markowitz 55 /30 53 /33
D. Racine 48 /34 45 /33
P. Shumlin 43 /41 37 /45
M. Dunne 38 /31 29 /42
S. Bartlett 31 /38 29 /42

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/21; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/23). Tested: '02 candidate/Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (D), '98 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (R) and Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 5/25 4/20 3/16 2/17
M. Neumann 47% 44% 46% 46% 44%
T. Barrett 39 42 46 42 42
Other 7 6 4 4 4
Undec 7 8 5 8 10

-           Now 5/25 4/20 3/16 2/17
S. Walker 49% 48% 46% 48% 49%
T. Barrett 41 41 44 42 40
Other 3 3 3 2 1
Undec 7 8 7 8 10

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/25    4/20    3/16    2/17
S. Walker 51%/35% 52%/30% 48%/33% 55%/28% 55%/29%
M. Neumann 49 /37 48 /31 53 /31 53 /27 49 /31
T. Barrett 42 /44 48 /36 40 /46 53 /34 49 /36

Senate 2010

Nevada
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/24). Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid and '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R).

General Election Matchup
-         Now 6/9 4/27 3/31 3/3 2/2 1/11 12/9
S. Angle 48% 50% 48% 51% 46% 44% 44% 47%
H. Reid 41 39 40 40 38 40 40 43
Other 8 5 7 6 11 7 10 7
Undec 2 6 4 3 5 8 7 3

Fav/Unfav
-         Now     6/9     4/27    3/31    3/3     2/2
S. Angle 48%/47% 48%/45% 48%/32% 48%/33% 40%/36% 37%/30%
H. Reid 48 /52 46 /54 43 /56 37 /62 39 /58 44 /55

NBC News/Wall Street Journal

Oil Spill
Conducted 6/17-21 by Hart (D)/McInturff (R); surveyed 1,000 adults; margin of error +/- 3.1%. Subsample of 879 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 6/23). Party ID breakdown of main sample (with leaners): 45%D, 36%R, 14%I.

When It Comes To ___, Do You Think We Need More/Less/About The Same Amount Or Regulation As There Is Now?
-                           More Less SameAmount NoRegulation
The oil industry 65% 16% 17% --
Wall St. firms 57 15 22 1
Big corporations 53 21 23 --
The health insurance
industry 52 27 18 --
Small businesses 12 52 33 1

Obama Handling Aftermath Of The Gulf Coast Oil Spill
Approve     42%
Disapprove 50

Do You Support/Oppose A Proposal To Allow More Drilling For Oil Off The Coast Of The U.S.?
-           Now 5/10
Support 53% 60%
Oppose 42 34

Do You Support/Oppose An Energy Proposal Designed To Reduce Carbon Emissions And Increase The Use Of Alternative And Renewable Energy Sources, Even If It Means An Increase In The Cost Of Energy?
Support     63%
Oppose 31

When It Comes To Oil Drilling Off U.S. Coasts, Do You Think The Potential Benefits To The Economy Outweigh The Potential Harm To The Environment, Or Do You Think The Potential Harm To The Environment Outweighs The Potential Benefits To The Economy?
-                                         Now 5/10
Harm to environment outweighs economy 48% 41%
Benefits to economy outweigh environment 46 53
A little of both 2 1

When It Comes To Dealing With The Oil Spill In The Gulf, Do You Feel That ___ Has Done More/Less/About As Much As Can Be Expected? (Half Sample)
-                           More AsMuchAsCanBeExpected Less
B. Obama 9% 39% 50%
Federal gov't, including
Interior and EPA 6 30 57
Congress 5 34 53
BP 3 24 69

How Much Do You Think The Gulf Coast Oil Spill Will Affect The Nation's Economy? (Half Sample)
-               Now 5/10
A great deal 41% 28%
Quite a bit 28 25
Some 22 34
Very little 6 10
Not affect 2 2

How Much Do You Think The Gulf Coast Oil Spill Will Affect The Nation's Environment? (Half Sample)
A great deal    59%
Quite a bit 23
Some 14
Very little 2
Not affect 1

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

House 2010

MD-01
A Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) poll; conducted 6/15-16 for Rep. Frank Kratovil (D); surveyed 403 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/23). Tested: Kratovil and '08 nominee/state Sen. Andy Harris (R).

General Election Matchup
F. Kratovil  44%
A. Harris 39
Undec 17

Governor 2010

Massachusetts
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/21; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/23). Tested: Gov. Deval Patrick (D), Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO/ex-MA HHS/Finance sec. Charlie Baker (R) and Treas. Tim Cahill (I).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 5/10 4/5 3/8 11/23 10/22 
D. Patrick 41% 45% 35% 35% 33% 34%
C. Baker 34 31 27 32 28 24
T. Cahill 16 14 23 19 25 23
Undec 9 10 15 14 14 19

Patrick As Gov.
-           Now 5/10 4/5 3/8 11/23 10/22 8/20 6/09 4/09 2/09
Approve 48% 48% 46% 39% 34% 43% 39% 42% 34% 48%
Disapprove 50 50 53 61 64 56 60 57 65 51

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/10    4/5     3/8     11/23   10/22
D. Patrick 52%/47% 53%/47% 49%/48% 43%/55% 42%/56% 48%/50%
C. Baker 46 /35 41 /34 43 /32 46 /26 42 /29 32 /29

Senate 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 342 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.3% (release, 6/23). Tested: Investigative reporter John Dougherty, '94 candidate/ex-Dept. of Health Services dir./ex-state Rep. Cathy Eden, ex-Tucson Vice Mayor Rodney Glassman and activist Randy Parraz.

Primary Election Matchup
R. Glassman   12%
C. Eden 11
R. Parraz 9
J. Dougherty 8
Other 14
Undec 46

Fav/Unfav
R. Glassman   29%/14%
C. Eden 23 /12
R. Parraz 22 /18
J. Dougherty 21 /18

Obama As POTUS
Approve       73%
Disapprove 25

Brewer As Gov.
Approve       31%
Disapprove 66

Colorado
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 6/20-21 for LG Jane Norton (R); surveyed 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/22). Tested: Norton and Weld Co. DA Ken Buck.

Primary Election Matchup
J. Norton  39%
K. Buck 33
Undec 28

North Dakota
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/15-16; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/22). Tested: Gov. John Hoeven (R) and state Sen. Tracy Potter (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 5/19 4/20 3/23 2/10
J. Hoeven 73% 72% 69% 68% 71%
T. Potter 19 23 24 25 17
Other 2 2 2 2 4
Undec 6 3 5 5 8

Hoeven As Gov.
-           Now 5/19 4/20 12/15
Approve 88% 87% 83% 87%
Disapprove 13 12 15 11

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/19    4/20    3/23    2/10    12/15
J. Hoeven 86%/13% 85%/12% 82%/16% 83%/14% 83%/12% 82%/15%
T. Potter 37 /38 38 /33 43 /31 40 /29 37 /32 n/a

Oregon
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/22). Tested: Sen. Ron Wyden (D) and Lewis & Clark law prof. Jim Huffman (R).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 5/24 2/16
R. Wyden 47% 51% 49%
J. Huffman 37 38 35
Other 6 4 7
Undec 10 7 9

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/24    2/16
R. Wyden 52%/41% 56%/38% 55%/36%
J. Huffman 35 /25 42 /22 33 /24

A Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 6/11-13 for Wyden; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/23). Tested: Wyden, Huffman, financial planner Marc Delphine (L) and psychiatrist Rick Staggenborg (G).

General Election Matchup
-               Now 3/8
R. Wyden 53% 53%
J. Huffman 23 23
M. Delphine 2 5
R. Staggenborg 2 n/a
Undec 20 20

Pennsylvania
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/19-21; surveyed 609 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/22). Party ID breakdown: 50%D, 42%R, 8%I. Tested: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/1
P. Toomey 41% 14% 73% 41% 40% 42% 42%
J. Sestak 41 70 10 21 45 38 36
Undec 18 16 17 38 16 20 22

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/1
P. Toomey 30%/28% 16%/40% 46%/14% 31%/21% 20%/22%
J. Sestak 29 /28 39 /18 17 /39 24 /27 16 /18

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/21; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/22). Tested: Sen. Russ Feingold (D), businessman Ron Johnson (R) and businessman Dave Westlake (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 5/25
R. Feingold 46% 46%
R. Johnson 45 44
Other 3 3
Undec 6 6

-            Now 5/25 4/20 3/16 2/17
R. Feingold 47% 47% 49% 51% 47%
D. Westlake 41 38 38 35 37
Other 4 7 4 5 6
Undec 7 8 9 10 10

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     5/25    4/20    3/16    2/17    1/26
R. Feingold 52%/45% 53%/44% 51%/48% 51%/47% 50%/48% 47%/48%
R. Johnson 46 /30 42 /25 n/a n/a n/a n/a
D. Westlake 34 /32 36 /26 30 /34 34 /26 33 /31 n/a

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

PEW Research Center/National Journal

Oil Spill
A Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Cong. Connection poll; conducted 6/17-20 by Pew Research Center; surveyed 1,009 adults; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 6/22). Party ID breakdown: 29%D, 27%R, 34%I.

Obama Admin. Responding To The Gulf Coast Oil Leak
-               Now 5/23
Excellent/good 33% 31%
Only fair/poor 64 57

BP Responding To The Gulf Coast Oil Leak
-               Now 5/23 5/9
Excellent/good 18% 19% 24%
Only fair/poor 77 70 63

Gallup

Oil Spill
Conducted 6/19-20; surveyed 1,046 adults; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 6/21).

Obama Handling Oil Spill In The Gulf Of Mexico
-           Now 6/6
Approve 44% 40%
Disapprove 48 46

BP Handling Oil Spill In The Gulf Of Mexico
Approve     16%
Disapprove 76

CBS News/New York Times

Oil Spill
Conducted 6/16-20; surveyed 1,259 adults; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 6/21).

What Do You Think Is The Most Important Problem Facing This Country Today?
-                           All Dem GOP Ind 4/12
Economy/jobs 40% 44% 41% 36% 49%
Gulf oil spill 13 15 8 16 --
Health care 5 6 6 4 8
Budget deficit/nat'l debt 5 1 9 5 5
War/Iraq/Afghanistan 3 4 2 2 4
Immigration 3 6 2 1 1
Moral values/family values 2 0 3 0 2
Misc. foreign affairs 2 0 0 4 0
Misc. gov't issues 2 1 2 2 1
Politicians/gov't 2 2 1 4 1
Other 20 19 24 22 24

Besides The Economy, Which Of These Domestic Policy Areas Do You Want The POTUS And Congress To Concentrate On Most Right Now?
-                           All Dem GOP Ind
Financial industry 30% 33% 27% 29%
Education 24 27 20 24
Immigration 24 16 33 25
Energy 14 17 8 14
Something else/combination 7 7 9 6

Obama Handling Gulf Oil Spill
-           All Dem GOP Ind
Approve 43% 63% 22% 39%
Disapprove 47 29 66 52

Do You Think Obama Does/Does Not Have A Clear Plan For Developing New Sources Of Energy?
-           All Dem GOP Ind
Does 41% 60% 20% 38%
Does not 45 26 69 46

Do You Think Obama Does/Does Not Have A Clear Plan For Dealing With The Oil Spill In The Gulf?
-           All Dem GOP Ind
Does 32% 46% 16% 30%
Does not 59 41 76 63

From What You've Seen Or Heard, Do You Think Obama's Response To The Oil Spill In The Gulf Has Been Too Quick/Too Slow, Or Has The Timing Been About Right?
-           All Dem GOP Ind
Too quick 2% 2% 2% 1%
Too slow 61 46 75 67
About right 32 48 19 27

How Much Do You Think Obama Cares About The Needs And Problems Of People Whose Lives Have Been Directly Affected By The Oil Spill In The Gulf?
-           All Dem GOP Ind
A lot 43% 63% 18% 42%
Some 32 28 42 31
Not much 14 6 22 17
Not at all 8 2 16 9

Would You Favor Allowing Increased Drilling For Oil And Natural Gas Off The U.S. Coast, Or Do You Think The Costs And Risks Are Too Great?
-                       All Dem GOP Ind 6/3 5/24 5/9 8/08
Favor 42% 21% 67% 43% 40% 45% 46% 62%
Costs/risks too great 49 69 25 48 51 46 41 28

Right Now, Which Do You Think Should Be A Priority For The Gov't?
-                                   All Dem GOP Ind 4/07
Developing new sources of energy 49% 40% 53% 53% 62%
Protecting the environment 29 40 22 25 21
Both equal 20 20 21 18 14

Which Comes Closer To Your View -- Gov't Should Do More To Regulate The Offshore Drilling Practices Of Oil Companies In Order To Protect The Environment, Or Gov't Should Place Fewer Regulations On The Offshore Drilling Practices Of Oil Companies In Order To Make It Easier For Them To Increase Oil Production?
-                   All Dem GOP Ind
More regulation 76% 87% 61% 76%
Fewer regulations 18 10 30 18

How Likely Do You Think It Is That Within The Next 25 Years The U.S. Will Develop An Alternative To Oil As Our Major Source Of Energy?
-                   All Dem GOP Ind
Very likely 24% 24% 17% 28%
Somewhat likely 35 32 42 35
Not too likely 17 17 15 18
Not at all likely 9 5 13 10

How Much Do You Trust Oil Companies To Act In The Best Interest Of The Public?
-                   All Dem GOP Ind
A lot of trust 2% 1% 4% 1%
Some trust 24 19 31 24
Not much trust 36 36 41 34
No trust at all 38 42 25 41

How Much Have You Heard Or Read About The Oil Spill In The Gulf Of Mexico?
-           All Dem GOP Ind
A lot 70% 66% 72% 73%
Some 25 29 20 24
Not much 4 5 6 2
Nothing 1 0 2 1

BP Handling The Gulf Oil Spill
-           All Dem GOP Ind
Approve 13% 9% 18% 14%
Disapprove 79 86 72 77

Which Best Describes Your Feelings About The Oil Spill In The Gulf?
-               All Dem GOP Ind
Angry 56% 58% 48% 59%
Bothered 41 40 47 39
Not bothered 3 2 4 2

How Much Control Do You Think The Obama Admin. Has Over Whether BP Will Pay For Damages Caused By The Oil Spill?
-                   All Dem GOP Ind
A lot 28% 30% 30% 24%
Some 39 44 39 34
Not much 17 13 13 24
No control at all 12 10 13 12

How Confident Are You That BP Will Fairly Compensate Those Affected By The Oil Spill In The Gulf?
-                       All Dem GOP Ind
Very confident 10% 8% 13% 9%
Somewhat confident 40 44 40 36
Not very confident 30 28 29 33
Not at all confident 19 19 17 22

How Much Do You Blame ___ For The Oil Spill In The Gulf?
-                       AGreatDeal AGoodAmt Justsome NotAtAll
Risks taken by BP and
its drilling partners 60% 21% 14% 3%
Inadequate enforcement
of existing regs 41 27 19 8
Weak federal
regulation on
offshore drilling 29 22 32 13

From What You've Seen And Heard, How Long Do You Think It Will Take BP To Stop The Flow Of Oil Into The Gulf Of Mexico?
-                       All Dem GOP Ind
A few weeks 4% 2% 6% 4%
About a month 14 18 12 12
Several months 48 46 49 50
About a year 10 8 10 12
Longer than a year 6 9 5 5
Won't be able to stop 7 8 5 8

Who Do You Trust More To Handle The Clean Up Of The Gulf Of Mexico?
-               All Dem GOP Ind
Federal gov't 56% 69% 41% 52%
BP 27 16 40 29
Both equal 5 6 4 4
Neither 9 5 13 11

Do You Think ___ Is Doing All It Can Reasonably Expected To Do To Try To Clean Up The Oil Spill In The Gulf?
-               AllItCan CouldDoMore
Federal gov't 28% 67%
BP 15 81

When ___ Talk About The Oil Spill, Do You Think They Are Telling The Truth?
-               TellingTheTruth HidingSomething MostlyLying
Obama admin. 34% 49% 11%
BP execs. 12 57 27

House 2010

IA-03
A Victory Enterprises (R) poll; conducted 6/17 for state Sen. Brad Zaun (R); surveyed 400 Lvs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/21). Tested: Zaun and Rep. Leonard Boswell (D).

General Election Matchup
B. Zaun     41%
L. Boswell 32
Undec 27

Fav/Unfav
B. Obama    44%/39%
B. Zaun 32 /19
L. Boswell 32 /42

VA-02
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 6/14-15 for car dealer Scott Rigell (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/21). Tested: Rigell, Rep. Glenn Nye (D) and ex-VA Beach GOP Chair Kenny Golden (I)

General Election Matchup
S. Rigell  41%
G. Nye 35
K. Golden 4

Fav/Unfav
G. Nye     45%/31%

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 707 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 6/21). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer (R), Treas. Dean Martin (R), NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills (R) and ex-state GOP Chair John Munger (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-           Now 5/17 4/13 3/16
J. Brewer 61% 45% 26% 20%
B. Mills 16 18 18 19
D. Martin 12 18 12 21
Other 2 6 20 17
Undec 9 13 24 23

Brewer As Gov.
Approve     84%
Disapprove 16

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/17    4/13    3/16    11/18
J. Brewer 86%/13% 80%/17% 49%/41% 52%/44% 54%/40%
B. Mills 48 /30 44 /27 40 /19 43 /12 n/a
D. Martin 43 /28 45 /24 37 /21 54 /14 60 /10

Obama As POTUS
Approve     10%
Disapprove 90

Georgia
A WMAZ-TV/WXIA-TV/WVEE-FM poll; conducted 6/14-17 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 501 Dem primary LVs and 787 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.4% and 3.2%, respectively (release, 6/18). Tested: AG Thurbert Baker (D), ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), mgmt technical consultant Bill Bolton (D), educator Carl Camon (D), state Rep. Randal Mangham (D), state House Min. Leader DuBose Porter (D), '98 candidate/ex-GA Nat'l Guard Adj. Gen. David Poythress (D), state Sen. Jeff Chapman (R), ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R), ex-Sec/State Karen Handel (R), ex-state Senate Pres. Pro Tem Eric Johnson (R), radio/TV ad producer Ray McBerry (R), Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R) and Wal-Mart worker Otis Putnam (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-             All Men Wom Wht Blk
R. Barnes 63% 65% 61% 77% 55%
T. Baker 13 14 13 3 20
D. Poythress 5 8 2 4 6
D. Porter 4 3 4 4 4
B. Bolton 1 0 2 1 0
C. Camon 1 2 0 0 2
R. Mangham 1 1 1 0 2
Undec 11 6 16 11 11

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom
J. Oxendine 34% 35% 34%
K. Handel 18 19 16
N. Deal 17 18 17
E. Johnson 6 7 5
J. Champman 4 3 5
R. McBerry 3 3 2
O. Putnam 1 1 0
Undec 17 14 22

New York
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/15-20; surveyed 1,592 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsample of 485 GOPers; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 6/22). Tested: AG Andrew Cuomo (D), '00 SEN nominee/JPMorgan exec. VP/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) and developer Carl Paladino (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom
R. Lazio 46% 50% 42%
C. Paladino 17 18 16
Other 5 6 4
Not vote 4 3 5
Undec 28 23 33

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11 2/1 12/13 10/19
A. Cuomo 58% 86% 26% 50% 58% 58% 55% 57% 62% 61%
R. Lazio 26 4 65 29 27 25 26 25 22 22
Other 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2
Not vote 1 1 -- 2 2 1 2 2 1 2
Undec 13 9 7 17 11 15 15 15 14 13

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11
A. Cuomo 59% 82% 30% 54% 58% 59% 60%
C. Paladino 23 4 54 23 24 21 24
Other 2 -- 4 2 3 1 1
Not vote 2 2 1 2 2 1 2
Undec 15 12 10 19 14 17 14

Cuomo As AG
-            All Dem GOP Ind 4/11 3/2 2/1 12/13 10/19 8/13
Approve 72% 83% 56% 76% 74% 70% 71% 74% 71% 74%
Disapprove 16 7 29 16 14 16 15 12 11 10

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/11    2/1
A. Cuomo 57%/18% 76%/ 5% 36%/42% 54%/19% 59%/19% 54%/16%
R. Lazio 24 /18 10 /26 51 / 8 26 /16 24 /19 20 /15
C. Paladino 10 /10 4 /14 24 / 7 9 / 9 12 / 8 n/a

Do You Think Cuomo Would Be A Better/Worse/About The Same Gov. Than His Father?
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Better 20% 20% 21% 22% 22% 19%
Worse 10 6 15 11 13 7
About same 51 55 54 49 48 55

Do You Think Cuomo Has Done Enough To Explain What He Will Do To Correct NY State's Budget Problems If He Is Elected?
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Yes 21% 26% 20% 15% 20% 22%
No 64 58 68 71 68 60

Which Comes Closer To Your Point Of View: Cuomo Is Politely Deferring To The Current Gov. On The Budget, Or Cuomo Is Ducking His Responsibility As A Candidate To Make His Positions Known?
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Ducking 41% 34% 52% 41% 43% 38%
Deferring 38 43 31 40 39 37

Oregon
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/22). Tested: Ex-Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley (R) and ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D).

General Election Matchup
-             Now 5/20 4/26 2/17
C. Dudley 47% 45% 41% 34%
J. Kitzhaber 45 44 41 42
Other 4 4 6 7
Undec 4 6 13 15

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     5/20    4/26    2/17
C. Dudley 48%/28% 53%/25% 46%/25% 40%/24%
J. Kitzhaber 46 /47 46 /47 58 /34 44 /42

Texas
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/19-21; surveyed 500 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/22). Party ID breakdown: 43%R, 37%D, 20%I. Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth 2/7
R. Perry 43% 10% 74% 36% 48% 38% 55% 7% 21% 46% 48%
B. White 43 76 15 42 39 46 35 70 55 43 42
Undec 14 14 11 22 13 16 10 23 24 11 10

Perry As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth 2/7
Approve 36% 16% 58% 27% 40% 32% 43% 20% 23% 26% 33%
Disapprove 49 73 26 55 49 50 42 67 64 54 50

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/7
B. White 37%/25% 61%/ 8% 17%/39% 35%/24% 34%/17%

Senate 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 707 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 6/21). Tested: Sen. John McCain, businessman/USN vet Jim Deakin and ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

Primary Election Matchup
-              Now 5/17 4/13 3/16 1/20 11/18
J. McCain 47% 52% 47% 48% 53% 45%
J.D. Hayworth 36 40 42 41 31 43
J. Deakin 7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Other 1 2 2 3 7 6
Undec 8 6 8 8 8 7

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     5/17    4/13    3/16    1/20
J. McCain 69%/30% 70%/28% 67%/33% 60%/36% 74%/23%
J.D. Hayworth 51 /45 67 /31 58 /34 47 /43 58 /25
J. Deakin 22 /33 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Obama As POTUS
-              Now 5/17 4/13
Approve 10% 10% 14%
Disapprove 90 88 86

Georgia
A WMAZ-TV/WXIA-TV/WVEE-FM poll; conducted 6/14-17 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 501 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/18). Tested: Ex-Rockdale Co. CoS R.J. Hadley and Labor Commis. Mike Thurmond.

Primary Election Matchup
-            All Men Wom Wht Blk
M. Thurmond 68% 72% 64% 61% 72%
R.J. Hadley 11 12 10 13 10
Undec 22 14 28 26 18

New York
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/15-20; surveyed 1,592 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsample of 485 GOPers; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 6/22). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), '98 Comp. nominee/ex-Nassau Co. legislator/ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R) and ex-Giuliani aide/ex-Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom
B. Blakeman 14% 15% 14%
D. Malpass 11 11 11
Other 4 6 2
Not vote 3 5 2
Undec 67 64 71

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11 2/1
K. Gillibrand 46% 73% 13% 37% 46% 46% 47% 44%
B. Blakeman 26 4 67 26 27 25 25 27
Other 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
Not vote 1 1 -- 2 2 1 3 2
Undec 26 20 18 33 24 28 24 26

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
K. Gillibrand 47% 74% 16% 38% 46% 47%
D. Malpass 25 3 63 27 26 24
Other 2 1 3 2 2 1
Not vote 1 2 -- 2 2 1
Undec 25 21 18 31 24 27

Gillibrand As Sen.
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11 2/1 12/13 10/19 8/13
Approve 44% 60% 27% 39% 45% 44% 47% 42% 40% 32% 33%
Disapprove 27 11 48 33 30 24 25 28 21 20 19

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/11
K. Gillibrand 37%/23% 50%/ 7% 22%/50% 35%/27% 37%/23%
B. Blakeman 8 / 5 3 / 9 20 / 1 8 / 3 7 / 6
D. Malpass 7 / 3 5 / 3 11 / 3 6 / 2 n/a

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/15-20; surveyed 1,592 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5% (release, 6/22).

Do You Feel Schumer Deserves To Be Re-Elected?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11 2/1
Yes/deserves 52% 70% 29% 48% 52% 52% 53% 54%
No/does not 33 15 60 37 36 30 32 33

Schumer As Sen.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11 2/1 12/13 10/19 8/13
Approve 60% 78% 35% 56% 57% 63% 61% 58% 62% 62% 58%
Disapprove 28 9 55 33 34 22 26 30 27 24 27

Monday, June 21, 2010

House 2010

ND-AL
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/15-16; surveyed 500 Lvs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/21). Tested: Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) and state Rep. Rick Berg (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 5/19 4/20 3/24 2/10
R. Berg 51% 52% 49% 51% 46%
E. Pomeroy 44 43 45 44 40
Other 1 2 2 1 3
Undec 5 3 4 4 11

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/19    4/20    3/24    2/10
R. Berg 58%/23% 56%/27% 53%/28% 56%/22% n/a
E. Pomeroy 50 /47 49 /50 51 /48 48 /49 48%/46%

Obama As POTUS
-           Now 5/19 4/20 3/23 2/10 12/15
Approve 41% 41% 44% 44% 39% 41%
Disapprove 58 57 54 55 58 58

Hoeven As Gov.
-           Now 5/19 4/20 12/15
Approve 88% 87% 83% 87%
Disapprove 13 12 15 11

UT-02
A Salt Lake Deseret News/KSL-TV poll; conducted 6/12-17 by Dan Jones & Assoc. (R); surveyed 409 "active" Dem primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 6/19). Tested: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) and retired teacher Claudia Wright (D).

Primary Election Matchup
J. Matheson  52%
C. Wright 33
Undec 15

How Would You Rate The Two Candidates' Views?
-                   Matheson Wright
Too liberal 3% 22%
About right 40 49
Not liberal enough 53 11

Governor 2010

Colorado
A Denver Post/KUSA-TV poll; conducted 6/15-17 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 1,528 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsample of 747 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 6/20). Tested: Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D), businessman Dan Maes (R) and ex-Rep. Scott McInnis (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-                All Men Wom
S. McInnis 57% 60% 54%
D. Maes 29 28 29
Undec 14 12 17

General Election Matchup
-                All Men Wom
D. Maes 45% 50% 40%
J. Hickenlooper 44 42 45
Third party 5 4 6
Undec 6 4 8

General Election Matchup (1,474 RVs; MoE +/- 2.6%)
-                All Men Wom
S. McInnis 47% 53% 42%
J. Hickenlooper 43 40 46
Third party 6 6 5
Undec 4 2 6

Florida
A FL Chamber Of Commerce poll; conducted 6/9-13 by Cherry Comm.; surveyed 607 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/18). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R) and businessman Rick Scott (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
R. Scott     35%
B. McCollum 30
Undec 33

Maryland
A polling company, inc. (R) poll; conducted 6/8-10 for businessman/ex-commodities trader Brian Murphy (R); surveyed 508 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 6/18). Tested: Murphy, Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) and ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R).

General Election Matchups
M. O'Malley  44%              M. O'Malley  44%
B. Ehrlich 43 B. Murphy 25

Michigan
An EPIC-MRA poll; conducted 6/12-15 for the Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversamples of 400 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.9% for each (release, 6/18). Tested: Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D), state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D), Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R), AG Mike Cox (R), state Sen. Tom George (R), Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-02) and ex-business exec. Rick Snyder (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-            Now 5/26
A. Dillon 34% 29%
V. Bernero 24 23
Undec 42 48

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            Now 5/26 3/31 2/25 1/26 10/15
M. Cox 26% 18% 21% 21% 32% 28%
P. Hoekstra 24 30 27 27 25 29
R. Snyder 20 17 15 12 3 3
M. Bouchard 16 16 13 10 16 14
T. George 2 2 3 1 2 2
Other n/a n/a 3 3 n/a n/a
Undec 12 17 18 26 22 24

General Election Matchups
-            Now 5/26 3/31
P. Hoekstra 47% 47% 42%
V. Bernero 38 34 29
Undec 15 19 29

-            Now 5/26 3/31 2/25 1/26
P. Hoekstra 46% 47% 40% 41% 40%
A. Dillon 38 35 33 37 32
Undec 16 18 27 21 28

-            Now 5/26 3/31
R. Snyder 49% 51% 42%
V. Bernero 34 28 26
Undec 17 21 32

-            Now 5/26 3/31
R. Snyder 49% 50% 42%
A. Dillon 36 31 30
Undec 15 19 28

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     5/26    3/31    2/25    1/26    12/9
M. Cox 36%/33% 35%/28% 38%/26% 43%/19% 41%/20% 42%/20%
M. Bouchard 33 /15 32 /13 31 /10 35 / 9 33 /10 31 / 7
P. Hoekstra 35 /17 31 /16 30 /15 29 /11 30 /12 30 /12
R. Snyder 29 / 9 26 / 8 18 / 6 19 / 4 7 / 2 6 / 2
A. Dillon 15 /15 13 /12 16 /11 13 / 9 14 /11 14 /10
V. Bernero 14 / 9 9 / 6 8 / 6 7 / 4 7 / 4 6 / 3
T. George 9 / 6 4 / 3 4 / 2 6 / 2 6 / 3 6 / 3

Senate 2010

Colorado
A Denver Post/KUSA-TV poll; conducted 6/15-17 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 1,565 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsamples of 506 Dem primary LVs and 747 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively (release, 6/20). Tested: Sen. Michael Bennet (D), ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) and ex-LG Jane Norton (R). (Note: Varying split sample sizes were used for general election matchups.)

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-            All Men Wom
M. Bennet 53% 56% 49%
A. Romanoff 36 36 37
Undec 11 8 14

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom
K. Buck 53% 59% 45%
J. Norton 37 33 42
Undec 10 8 13

General Election Matchup (1,565 RVs; MoE +/- 2.5%)
-            All Men Wom
K. Buck 46% 51% 41%
M. Bennet 43 41 45
Third party 6 5 6
Undec 5 3 8

General Election Matchup (1,498 RVs; MoE +/- 2.5%)
-            All Men Wom
J. Norton 47% 50% 44%
M. Bennet 44 42 46
Third party 5 6 5
Undec 4 2 5

General Election Matchup (1,437 RVs; MoE +/- 2.6%)
-            All Men Wom
K. Buck 49% 55% 42%
A. Romanoff 40 37 43
Third party 6 5 6
Undec 5 2 8

General Election Matchup (1,504 RVs; MoE +/- 2.5%)
-            All Men Wom
J. Norton 45% 50% 39%
A. Romanoff 41 38 43
Third party 8 7 8
Undec 7 4 10

Florida
A FL Chamber Of Commerce poll; conducted 6/9-13 by Cherry Comm.; surveyed 607 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/18). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (I), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17) and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

General Election Matchup
C. Crist    42%
M. Rubio 31
K. Meek 14
Undec 12

Crist As Gov.
Approve     60%
Disapprove 30

New York
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/18). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), '98 Comp. nominee/ex-Nassau Co. legislator/ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R), ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R) and ex-Giuliani aide/ex-Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass (R).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 5/12
K. Gillibrand 50% 51%
B. Blakeman 38 31
Other 2 8
Undec 10 10

-              Now 5/12
K. Gillibrand 49% 51%
J. DioGuardi 38 28
Other 2 7
Undec 12 13

-              Now 5/12
K. Gillibrand 49% 46%
D. Malpass 34 27
Other 3 10
Undec 13 16

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     5/12    4/8     3/1     1/18
K. Gillibrand 49%/38% 57%/37% 46%/34% 50%/37% 46%/41%
J. DioGuardi 35 /27 29 /32 n/a n/a n/a
B. Blakeman 32 /27 29 /33 n/a n/a n/a
D. Malpass 30 /29 24 /31 n/a n/a n/a

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/18). Tested: Sen. Chuck Schumer (D), ex-CIA operative Gary Berntsen (R) and GOP consultant Jay Townsend (R).

General Election Matchups
C. Schumer   54%              C. Schumer   54%
G. Berntsen 35 J. Townsend 33
Other 5 Other 6
Undec 6 Undec 6

Fav/Unfav
C. Schumer   60%/37%
G. Berntsen 36 /27
J. Townsend 32 /30

Utah
A Wenzel Strategies (R) poll; conducted 6/17 for the Senate Conservatives Fund (R); surveyed 642 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 6/18). Tested: '02/'04 UT-02 candidate/venture capitalist Tim Bridgewater and '02/'04 UT-02 candidate/venture capitalist Mike Lee. (Note: The Senate Conservatives Fund is supporting Lee.)

Primary Election Matchup
-               All Men Wom
M. Lee 45% 42% 47%
T. Bridgewater 35 38 34

A Salt Lake Deseret News/KSL-TV poll; conducted 6/12-17 by Dan Jones & Assoc. (R); surveyed 581 "active" GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 6/20). Tested: Bridgewater and Lee.

Primary Election Matchup
T. Bridgewater  42%
M. Lee 33
Undec 25

How Would You Rate The Two Candidates' Views?
-                        Bridgewater Lee
Too conservative 9% 15%
About right 65 65
Not conservative enough 14 11

CNN/Opinion Research Corp

Offshore Drilling
Conducted 6/16; surveyed 534 adults; margin of error +/- 4.2% (release, 6/18).

How Do You Feel About Increased Drilling For Oil And Natural Gas Offshore In U.S. Waters?
-                Now 5/23 8/08 7/08 6/08
Strongly favor 26% 27% 52% 46% 48%
Mildly favor 23 30 22 23 25
Mildly oppose 17 16 11 12 15
Strongly oppose 34 25 13 18 12

Do You Think The Gulf Spill Will Directly Affect You And Your Family, Indirectly Affect You And Your Family, Or Not Affect You And Your Family?
-                Now 5/23
Direct effect 42% 31%
Indirect effect 47 53
No effect 11 16

If You Had To Choose, Would You Say That The Situation In The Gulf Is ___?
Under control     7%
Out of control 92
Mixed/both 1

Would You Say That The Situation In The Gulf Is Getting Better/Worse, Or That It Has Stabilized But Is Not Getting Better?
Better       14%
Stabilized 38
Worse 48

Do You Think The Gulf Will Ever Completely Recover From The Effects Of The Oil Spill?
Yes  51%
No 49

The Federal Gov't Suspending All New Drilling For Oil In The Gulf And Other Offshore Sites For Six Months
Approve      58%
Disapprove 41

The Federal Gov't Filing Criminal Charges Against Employees And Execs. At BP
Approve      53%
Disapprove 46

The Federal Gov't Changing The Law So There Is No Limit To The Amount Of Money BP Must Pay
Approve      63%
Disapprove 36

The Federal Gov't Increasing The Amount Of Regulation Of The Oil Industry In The U.S.
Approve      68%
Disapprove 31

Based On What You Have Heard Or Read, Do You Favor/Oppose Obama's Proposals To Develop Alternative Sources Of Energy And Reduce The Amount Of Oil And Other Fossil Fuels That Are Produced And Used In The U.S.?
Favor    72%
Oppose 25

Do You Think That Proposals To Develop Alternative Sources Of Energy And Reduce The Amount Of Oil And Other Fossil Fuels That Are Produced And Used In The U.S. Would Increase/Decrease The Number Of Jobs In The U.S.?
Increase     69%
Decrease 27
No change 2

Do You Think That Proposals To Develop Alternative Sources Of Energy And Reduce The Amount Of Oil And Other Fossil Fuels That Are Produced And Used In The U.S. Would Make Life Better/Worse For The Next Generation Of Americans?
Better       79%
Worse 19
No change 1

Friday, June 18, 2010

House 2010

AL-07
An Anzalone Liszt Research (D) poll; conducted 6/13-16 for atty Terri Sewell (D); surveyed 400 Dem primary runoff LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/17). Tested: Sewell and Jefferson Co. Commis. Shelia Smoot.

Primary Runoff Election Matchup
T. Sewell  53%
S. Smoot 33

Fav/Unfav
T. Sewell  63%/ 9%
S. Smoot 54 /25

AR-02
An OnMessage, Inc. (R) poll; conducted 6/13-14 for ex-U.S. Atty Tim Griffin (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/18). Party ID breakdown: 43%D, 33%R, 23%I. Tested: Griffin and state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D).

General Election Matchup
T. Griffin  50%
J. Elliott 34
Undec 17

Fav/Unfav
B. Obama    40%/54%
J. Elliott 35 /34
T. Griffin 34 /12

NC-02
A Civitas Institute (R) poll; conducted 6/15-16 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 400 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/17). Party ID breakdown: 47%D, 32%R, 20%I. Tested: Rep. Bob Etheridge (D), nurse Renee Ellmers (R) and Libertarian candidate Tom Rose.

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
R. Ellmers 39% 22% 70% 32% 49% 31%
B. Etheridge 38 58 15 22 30 44
T. Rose 13 8 6 35 11 14
Undec 11 12 10 11 10 11

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom        
Generic GOPer 45% 20% 83% 44% 52% 39%
Generic Dem 39 69 7 24 35 42
Undec 16 11 10 32 13 18

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind
B. Etheridge 26%/40% 36%/27% 15%/54% 19%/51%
R. Ellmers 17 /11 12 /13 7 /29 12 /16

Obama As POTUS
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom           
Approve 38% 63% 11% 19% 34% 41%
Disapprove 55 28 84 73 59 50

WA-03
A Moore Information (R) poll; conducted 6/13-14 for state Rep. Jaime Herrera (R); surveyed 300 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 6/17).

House General Election Matchup
Generic GOPer  42%
Generic Dem 35
Neither 3
Undec 20

Governor 2010

Arkansas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/18). Tested: Gov. Mike Beebe (D) and '90 AR-02 nominee/restaurateur/ex-state Sen. Jim Keet (R). (Note: Portions of this poll appeared in 6/17's Hotline.)

General Election Matchup
-         Now 5/19
M. Beebe 57% 53%
J. Keet 33 38
Other 1 1
Undec 9 7

Fav/Unfav
-         Now     5/19
M. Beebe 72%/25% 68%/31%
J. Keet 45 /30 47 /27

Minnesota
A KSTP-TV poll; conducted 6/14-16 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 1,617 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.4%. Subsample of 500 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/17). Party ID breakdown: 37%D, 33%R, 27%I. Tested: State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D), ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D), atty/ex-state House Min. Leader Matt Entenza (D), '06 indie SEN candidate/'04/'08 MN-02 candidate/businessman Peter Idusogie (D), state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (IP).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-                     All Men Wom
M. Dayton 39% 42% 35%
M. Anderson Kelliher 26 22 30
M. Entenza 22 24 19
P. Idusogie 3 4 2
Undec 11 8 14

General Election Matchups
-                     All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/5
T. Emmer 35% 7% 72% 30% 41% 29% 41%
M. Anderson Kelliher 33 64 6 25 29 36 33
T. Horner 12 9 8 22 14 10 9
Undec 21 21 14 23 16 25 17

-                     All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/5
M. Dayton 38% 69% 9% 29% 34% 41% 34%
T. Emmer 35 7 73 30 42 29 42
T. Horner 12 10 7 21 14 10 9
Undec 15 14 10 19 10 20 15

-                     All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/5
T. Emmer 37% 8% 78% 31% 44% 30% 42%
M. Entenza 33 61 7 25 31 35 31
T. Horner 12 12 5 21 12 11 10
Undec 18 19 10 23 13 24 16

Oklahoma
A SoonerPoll.com poll; conducted 5/25-6/9; surveyed 318 Dem primary LVs and 324 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 5.5% and 5.4%, respectively (release, 6/18). Tested: LG Jari Askins (D), AG Drew Edmondson (D), state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R), Rep. Mary Fallin (R-05), rancher/businessman Robert Hubbard (R) and retired businessman Roger Jackson (R). (Note: Interviews for the Dem primary poll ended on 6/8).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-             All Men Wom 4/15 1/5 4/09
D. Edmondson 37% 40% 35% 40% 46% 29%
J. Askins 36 34 37 35 36 34
Undec 27 26 28 25 18 38

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 4/15 1/5
M. Fallin 59% 63% 56% 62% 68%
R. Brogdon 10 7 12 13 16
R. Jackson 2 1 3 n/a n/a
R. Hubbard 1 2 1 n/a n/a
Undec 28 27 29 25 16

Tennessee
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/17). Tested: Businessman Mike McWherter (D), Rep. Zach Wamp (R-03), Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) and LG Ron Ramsey (R).

General Election Matchups
-             Now 3/22
B. Haslam 50% 45%
M. McWherter 32 27
Other 5 5
Undec 14 23

-             Now 3/22
R. Ramsey 44% 43%
M. McWherter 33 29
Other 7 5
Undec 16 23

-             Now 3/22
Z. Wamp 44% 41%
M. McWherter 33 31
Other 8 7
Undec 14 22

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     3/22
B. Haslam 66%/17% 53%/18%
Z. Wamp 51 /29 42 /27
R. Ramsey 46 /30 43 /23
M. McWherter 45 /38 34 /32

Texas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/18). Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 5/13 4/14 3/3 2/1 1/17
R. Perry 48% 51% 48% 49% 48% 50%
B. White 40 38 44 43 39 40
Other 5 4 2 3 5 4
Undec 8 6 6 6 8 6

Perry As Gov.
-           Now 5/13 4/14 3/3 2/1 1/17
Approve 53% 55% 59% 54% 50% 53%
Disapprove 45 42 40 44 48 46

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/13    4/14    3/3     2/1     1/17
B. White 55%/36% 47%/41% 54%/36% 54%/34% 46%/38% 49%/35%
R. Perry 53 /45 55 /43 59 /37 54 /46 54 /44 55 /42
 
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