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Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 707 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 6/21). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer (R), Treas. Dean Martin (R), NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills (R) and ex-state GOP Chair John Munger (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-           Now 5/17 4/13 3/16
J. Brewer 61% 45% 26% 20%
B. Mills 16 18 18 19
D. Martin 12 18 12 21
Other 2 6 20 17
Undec 9 13 24 23

Brewer As Gov.
Approve     84%
Disapprove 16

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/17    4/13    3/16    11/18
J. Brewer 86%/13% 80%/17% 49%/41% 52%/44% 54%/40%
B. Mills 48 /30 44 /27 40 /19 43 /12 n/a
D. Martin 43 /28 45 /24 37 /21 54 /14 60 /10

Obama As POTUS
Approve     10%
Disapprove 90

Georgia
A WMAZ-TV/WXIA-TV/WVEE-FM poll; conducted 6/14-17 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 501 Dem primary LVs and 787 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.4% and 3.2%, respectively (release, 6/18). Tested: AG Thurbert Baker (D), ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), mgmt technical consultant Bill Bolton (D), educator Carl Camon (D), state Rep. Randal Mangham (D), state House Min. Leader DuBose Porter (D), '98 candidate/ex-GA Nat'l Guard Adj. Gen. David Poythress (D), state Sen. Jeff Chapman (R), ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R), ex-Sec/State Karen Handel (R), ex-state Senate Pres. Pro Tem Eric Johnson (R), radio/TV ad producer Ray McBerry (R), Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R) and Wal-Mart worker Otis Putnam (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-             All Men Wom Wht Blk
R. Barnes 63% 65% 61% 77% 55%
T. Baker 13 14 13 3 20
D. Poythress 5 8 2 4 6
D. Porter 4 3 4 4 4
B. Bolton 1 0 2 1 0
C. Camon 1 2 0 0 2
R. Mangham 1 1 1 0 2
Undec 11 6 16 11 11

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom
J. Oxendine 34% 35% 34%
K. Handel 18 19 16
N. Deal 17 18 17
E. Johnson 6 7 5
J. Champman 4 3 5
R. McBerry 3 3 2
O. Putnam 1 1 0
Undec 17 14 22

New York
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/15-20; surveyed 1,592 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5%. Subsample of 485 GOPers; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 6/22). Tested: AG Andrew Cuomo (D), '00 SEN nominee/JPMorgan exec. VP/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) and developer Carl Paladino (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom
R. Lazio 46% 50% 42%
C. Paladino 17 18 16
Other 5 6 4
Not vote 4 3 5
Undec 28 23 33

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11 2/1 12/13 10/19
A. Cuomo 58% 86% 26% 50% 58% 58% 55% 57% 62% 61%
R. Lazio 26 4 65 29 27 25 26 25 22 22
Other 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2
Not vote 1 1 -- 2 2 1 2 2 1 2
Undec 13 9 7 17 11 15 15 15 14 13

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11
A. Cuomo 59% 82% 30% 54% 58% 59% 60%
C. Paladino 23 4 54 23 24 21 24
Other 2 -- 4 2 3 1 1
Not vote 2 2 1 2 2 1 2
Undec 15 12 10 19 14 17 14

Cuomo As AG
-            All Dem GOP Ind 4/11 3/2 2/1 12/13 10/19 8/13
Approve 72% 83% 56% 76% 74% 70% 71% 74% 71% 74%
Disapprove 16 7 29 16 14 16 15 12 11 10

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/11    2/1
A. Cuomo 57%/18% 76%/ 5% 36%/42% 54%/19% 59%/19% 54%/16%
R. Lazio 24 /18 10 /26 51 / 8 26 /16 24 /19 20 /15
C. Paladino 10 /10 4 /14 24 / 7 9 / 9 12 / 8 n/a

Do You Think Cuomo Would Be A Better/Worse/About The Same Gov. Than His Father?
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Better 20% 20% 21% 22% 22% 19%
Worse 10 6 15 11 13 7
About same 51 55 54 49 48 55

Do You Think Cuomo Has Done Enough To Explain What He Will Do To Correct NY State's Budget Problems If He Is Elected?
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Yes 21% 26% 20% 15% 20% 22%
No 64 58 68 71 68 60

Which Comes Closer To Your Point Of View: Cuomo Is Politely Deferring To The Current Gov. On The Budget, Or Cuomo Is Ducking His Responsibility As A Candidate To Make His Positions Known?
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Ducking 41% 34% 52% 41% 43% 38%
Deferring 38 43 31 40 39 37

Oregon
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/22). Tested: Ex-Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley (R) and ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D).

General Election Matchup
-             Now 5/20 4/26 2/17
C. Dudley 47% 45% 41% 34%
J. Kitzhaber 45 44 41 42
Other 4 4 6 7
Undec 4 6 13 15

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     5/20    4/26    2/17
C. Dudley 48%/28% 53%/25% 46%/25% 40%/24%
J. Kitzhaber 46 /47 46 /47 58 /34 44 /42

Texas
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/19-21; surveyed 500 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/22). Party ID breakdown: 43%R, 37%D, 20%I. Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth 2/7
R. Perry 43% 10% 74% 36% 48% 38% 55% 7% 21% 46% 48%
B. White 43 76 15 42 39 46 35 70 55 43 42
Undec 14 14 11 22 13 16 10 23 24 11 10

Perry As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth 2/7
Approve 36% 16% 58% 27% 40% 32% 43% 20% 23% 26% 33%
Disapprove 49 73 26 55 49 50 42 67 64 54 50

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/7
B. White 37%/25% 61%/ 8% 17%/39% 35%/24% 34%/17%

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