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Friday, April 30, 2010

House 2010

PA-12
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/26-28; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/30). Party ID breakdown: 53%D, 36%R, 11%I. Tested: Businessman Tim Burns (R) and ex-Murtha staffer Mark Critz (D).

Special Election Matchup
-         All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
T. Burns 46% 21% 83% 49% 49% 43%
M. Critz 40 64 8 26 38 42
Undec 14 15 9 25 13 15

Fav/Unfav
-         All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
T. Burns 46%/30% 28%/43% 73%/11% 44%/29% 50%/28% 42%/32%
M. Critz 44 /33 64 /16 16 /58 37 /34 42 /37 46 /29
B. Obama 38 /55 62 /29 7 /89 24 /66 35 /62 41 /48

NH-01
A WMUR-TV/Granite State Poll; conducted 4/12-21; surveyed 258 adults; margin of error +/- 6.1%. Subsample of 229 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.5% (release, 4/29). Tested: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D), BAE Systems Gov't Relations VP Rick Ashooh (R), businessman Bob Bestani (R), ex-Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) and magazine publisher Sean Mahoney (R).

General Election Matchups (LVs)
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
R. Ashooh 39% 5% 70% 29% 47% 32% 36%
C. Shea-Porter 36 81 6 20 31 41 33
Other 0 1 0 0 0 0 3
Undec 25 13 23 52 22 27 28

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
B. Bestani 38% 6% 70% 21% 47% 30% 36%
C. Shea-Porter 37 78 8 22 31 41 32
Other 1 0 0 3 1 0 2
Undec 25 16 22 54 21 29 30

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
F. Guinta 42% 7% 75% 28% 50% 34% 43%
C. Shea-Porter 38 81 7 33 33 42 33
Other 1 1 0 3 1 0 2
Undec 19 11 19 36 16 23 22

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
S. Mahoney 40% 6% 73% 27% 51% 31% 39%
C. Shea-Porter 37 79 8 25 30 43 32
Other 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Undec 23 15 19 49 19 26 28

Fav/Unfav
-               All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/3
C. Shea-Porter 37%/44% 68%/10% 12%/76% 35%/39% 35%/40%
F. Guinta 22 /18 16 /23 29 /13 21 /20 23 /14
S. Mahoney 6 / 7 5 / 8 7 / 7 6 / 7 5 / 3
R. Ashooh 4 / 2 3 / 3 5 / 2 4 / 1 4 / 0
B. Bestani 2 / 3 2 / 5 2 / 2 0 / 3 1 / 2

NH-02
A WMUR-TV/Granite State Poll; conducted 4/12-21; surveyed 254 adults; margin of error +/- 6.1%. Subsample of 231 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.4% (release, 4/29). Tested: Ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (R), '08 nominee Jennfier Horn (R), atty Ann McLane Kuster (D) and '02 nominee Katrina Swett (D).

General Election Matchups (LVs)
-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
C. Bass 42% 12% 76% 43% 51% 33% 39%
A. McLane Kuster 30 55 4 25 30 31 28
Other 1 0 1 3 1 0 1
Undec 27 32 20 29 18 37 32

-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
C. Bass 44% 14% 79% 40% 55% 33% 37%
K. Swett 27 50 3 18 23 30 30
Other 1 0 1 3 1 0 1
Undec 29 36 18 40 21 38 33

-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
J. Horn 33% 7% 66% 23% 43% 22% 28%
A. McLane Kuster 32 57 7 21 30 34 25
Other 0 0 0 3 1 0 3
Undec 35 36 27 54 26 44 44

-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
J. Horn 35% 6% 68% 30% 46% 24% 30%
K. Swett 31 54 8 24 30 31 26
Undec 34 41 24 46 23 45 43

Fav/Unfav
-                 All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/3
C. Bass 32%/25% 22%/36% 43%/17% 40%/20% 44%/19%
J. Horn 20 /15 4 /23 34 /10 20 /17 15 / 9
K. Swett 13 /14 16 / 7 13 /24 6 /11 16 /13
A. McLane Kuster 8 / 4 15 / 1 2 / 7 4 / 9 8 / 3
B. Guida 6 / 7 1 / 7 14 / 3 0 /15 3 / 3
J. DeJoie 4 / 3 5 / 4 3 / 2 0 / 4 4 / 4

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/23-25; surveyed 387 GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 5.0% (release, 4/30). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer, Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio, Treas. Dean Martin, NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills and ex-state GOP Chair John Munger.

Primary Election Matchups
-           All Men Wom
J. Arpaio 33% 37% 29%
J. Brewer 25 29 20
D. Martin 15 11 19
B. Mills 11 11 12
J. Munger 1 1 2
Undec 15 11 19

-           All Men Wom
J. Brewer 38% 43% 32%
B. Mills 19 20 19
D. Martin 16 15 17
J. Munger 3 3 4
Undec 24 20 28

Brewer As Gov.
-           All Men Wom
Approve 52% 56% 48%
Disapprove 30 28 31

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Men     Wom
J. Arpaio 70%/22% 77%/20% 63%/24%
B. Mills 27 /11 29 /11 26 /12
D. Martin 26 /11 27 /13 25 / 9
J. Munger 5 / 9 4 /11 6 / 7

Illinois
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/28; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/30). Tested: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) and '06 candidate/state Sen. Bill Brady (R).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 4/5 3/8 12/14
B. Brady 45% 45% 47% 30%
P. Quinn 38 38 37 45
Other 5 7 6 13
Undec 11 10 9 13

Quinn As Gov.
-           Now 4/5 3/8 2/3 12/9 8/11 6/9 4/09
Approve 40% 43% 43% 45% 52% 47% 57% 61%
Disapprove 58 56 55 53 47 49 41 37

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/5     3/8     12/14   8/11    6/9
B. Brady 47%/32% 48%/35% 51%/30% 36%/37% 29%/21% n/a
P. Quinn 43 /50 37 /59 44 /51 52 /44 53 /43 55%/39%


Nevada
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/26-28 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/29). Party ID Breakdown: 43%D, 40%R, 17%I.

Fav/Unfav
-           All    Dem     GOP     Ind     9/2
J. Gibbons 21%/59 7%/84% 39%/31% 14%/61% 17%/61%


A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/27; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/29). Tested: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R), ex-U.S. District Judge/ex-NV AG/ex-NV Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R) and Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D).

General Election Matchups
-             Now 3/31 3/3 2/3
R. Reid 47% 43% 44% 44%
J. Gibbons 37 45 36 35
Other 12 8 15 13
Undec 3 4 4 8

-             Now 3/31 3/3 2/3
M. Montandon 45% 45% 42% 36%
R. Reid 39 38 37 40
Other 9 9 13 14
Undec 8 8 8 10

-             Now 3/31 3/3 2/3
B. Sandoval 53% 55% 53% 45%
R. Reid 35 34 35 33
Other 6 6 7 11
Undec 5 4 5 12

Gibbons As Gov.
-             Now 3/31 3/3 2/2 1/11 12/9
Approve 35% 42% 37% 39% 35% 35%
Disapprove 63 57 61 59 63 61

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     3/31    3/3     2/3
B. Sandoval 53%/28% 49%/29% 55%/30% 53%/30%
R. Reid 43 /48 36 /53 43 /48 40 /52
M. Montandon 41 /28 35 /32 39 /30 39 /29
J. Gibbons 32 /65 35 /62 33 /61 35 /63

New York
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/29; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/31). Tested: AG Andrew Cuomo (D), '00 SEN nominee/JPMorgan exec. VP/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R), Suffolk Co. Exec. Steve Levy (R) and atty/developer Carl Paladino (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 3/29 3/1 1/21 11/17 9/22
A. Cuomo 56% 52% 55% 54% 57% 65%
R. Lazio 24 29 30 35 29 26
Other 6 6 5 5 6 5
Undec 14 13 10 7 9 5

-            Now 3/29
A. Cuomo 50% 50%
S. Levy 27 26
Other 6 7
Undec 17 17

-            Now 3/29 3/1
A. Cuomo 55% 51% 56%
C. Paladino 25 28 27
Other 5 6 6
Undec 15 15 11

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     3/29    3/1     1/21    11/17   9/22
A. Cuomo 65%/28% 60%/31% 64%/29% 62%/29% 56%/34% 68%/25%
R. Lazio 38 /38 46 /32 40 /34 45 /34 36 /44 33 /49
S. Levy 35 /32 33 /34 n/a n/a n/a n/a
C. Paladino 27 /41 31 /31 30 /33 n/a n/a n/a

Utah
A Salt Lake Tribune poll; conducted 4/26-28 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research; surveyed 400 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/30). Tested: Gov. Gary Herbert (R) and Salt Lake Co. Mayor Peter Corroon (D).

Special Election Matchup
-           Now 1/20
G. Herbert 61% 55%
P. Corroon 30 30
Undec 9 15

Fav/Unfav
G. Herbert  51%/16%
P. Corroon 30 /14

Senate 2010

Arkansas
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/26-28 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/29). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 38%D, 33%R, 29%I. Tested: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), LG Bill Halter (D), state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), Rep. John Boozman (R-03), Safe Foods Corp CEO Curtis Coleman (R), AR Tea Party org. pres. Tom Cox (R) and state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R). (Ed. note: Daily Kos has endorsed Halter and is encouraging its readers to support his campaign.)

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom Wht Blk 4/14 3/24 12/2
B. Lincoln 43% 47% 40% 46% 31% 45% 44% 42%
B. Halter 35 30 38 34 39 33 31 26
Other 7 11 4 8 1 6 n/a n/a
Undec 15 12 18 12 29 16 25 32

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
G. Baker 47% 15% 83% 48% 52% 42% 48% 49% 41% 37%
B. Lincoln 40 74 5 35 36 44 41 41 42 44
Undec 13 11 12 17 12 14 11 10 17 19

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24
J. Boozman 52% 19% 87% 56% 58% 46% 50% 49%
B. Lincoln 42 76 7 37 37 47 43 42
Undec 6 5 6 7 5 7 7 9

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
C. Coleman 46% 13% 82% 48% 52% 40% 46% 47% 39% 37%
B. Lincoln 42 77 5 37 37 47 43 44 44 45
Undec 12 10 13 15 11 13 11 9 17 18

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
T. Cox 47% 13% 84% 50% 52% 42% 46% 47% 31% 29%
B. Lincoln 42 77 5 37 37 47 43 43 45 46
Undec 11 10 11 13 11 11 11 10 24 25

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
K. Hendren 50% 18% 84% 54% 54% 46% 49% 48% 30% 28%
B. Lincoln 40 75 6 34 37 43 42 43 46 47
Undec 10 9 10 12 9 11 9 9 24 25

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2
G. Baker 44% 9% 82% 47% 49% 39% 45% 46% 42%
B. Halter 43 79 6 37 38 48 43 44 34
Undec 13 12 12 16 13 13 12 10 24

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24
J. Boozman 47% 13% 84% 48% 52% 42% 48% 48%
B. Halter 42 78 5 38 37 47 41 40
Undec 11 9 11 14 11 11 11 12

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2
B. Halter 43% 81% 5% 37% 38% 48% 44% 45% 35%
C. Coleman 41 6 80 42 47 35 43 44 40
Undec 16 13 15 21 15 17 13 11 25

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2
B. Halter 44% 82% 5% 39% 41% 47% 44% 45% 36%
T. Cox 42 7 80 44 49 35 43 43 32
Undec 14 11 15 17 10 18 13 12 32

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/14 3/24 12/2
K. Hendren 45% 10% 84% 49% 49% 41% 46% 45% 31%
B. Halter 43 78 6 38 39 47 43 44 36
Undec 12 12 10 13 12 12 11 11 33

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/14    3/24
B. Halter 48%/32% 73%/10% 20%/56% 47%/32% 47%/30% 46%/27%
J. Boozman 44 /32 16 /53 76 /10 44 /29 45 /31 44 /30
B. Lincoln 41 /54 64 /32 17 /75 40 /58 43 /53 42 /52
K. Hendren 38 /27 15 /47 66 / 7 37 /23 36 /28 34 /27
G. Baker 36 /30 14 /51 63 / 7 35 /26 37 /30 36 /28
C. Coleman 36 /31 16 /52 61 / 9 34 /28 35 /30 34 /29
T. Cox 34 /27 11 /46 59 / 8 35 /24 33 /25 32 /26

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-           All     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
B. Halter 66%/14% 63%/17% 68%/12% 66%/15% 67%/10%
B. Lincoln 59 /33 63 /29 56 /36 60 /32 53 /38

Delaware
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/29; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/30). Tested: Rep. Mike Castle (R) and New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D).

General Election Matchup
-          Now 2/22 1/25
M. Castle 55% 53% 56%
C. Coons 32 32 27
Other 7 8 5
Undec 7 8 13

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     2/22    1/25    9/30
M. Castle 65%/32% 65%/30% 66%/25% 61%/34%
C. Coons 48 /38 43 /35 47 /30 n/a

Illinois
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/28; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/30). Tested: Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R-10).

General Election Matchups
-               Now 4/5 3/8 2/3 12/9 10/14 8/11
M. Kirk 46% 41% 41% 46% 39% 41% 41%
A. Giannoulias 38 37 44 40 42 41 38
Other 5 8 5 4 3 4 4
Undec 12 13 10 10 15 13 17

Fav/Unfav
-               Now     4/5     3/8     2/3     12/9
M. Kirk 52%/31% 51%/36% 49%/33% 55%/33% 50%/32%
A. Giannoulias 42 /47 42 /44 44 /43 46 /39 48 /36

Nevada
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/26-28 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsample of 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/29). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 43%D, 40%R, 17%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), '04 state Senate nominee/'06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R) and Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian.

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom
S. Lowden 38% 40% 36%
D. Tarkanian 28 29 27
S. Angle 13 11 15
Other 12 13 11
Undec 9 7 11

General Election Matchups
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
S. Angle 44% 10% 82% 43% 50% 38% 52% 4% 18%
H. Reid 41 76 6 34 36 46 34 77 67
S. Ashjian 5 1 8 7 6 4 6 0 0
Other 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 0 0
None 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 0 0
Undec 6 8 2 9 4 8 4 19 15

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
S. Lowden 45% 10% 83% 46% 51% 39% 53% 4% 21%
H. Reid 41 76 6 34 36 46 34 77 67
S. Ashjian 4 0 7 7 5 3 5 0 0
Other 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 0 0
None 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 0 0
Undec 6 9 2 6 4 8 4 19 12

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
D. Tarkanian 43% 9% 81% 42% 49% 37% 51% 4% 17%
H. Reid 41 76 6 34 36 46 35 76 67
S. Ashjian 6 1 9 9 7 5 7 0 0
Other 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 0 0
None 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 0 0
Undec 6 9 2 8 4 8 3 20 16

Fav/Unfav
-             All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/20    9/2
D. Tarkanian 44%/33% 26%/52% 65%/14% 40%/32% 48%/31% 47%/28%
S. Lowden 42 /34 17 /54 70 /13 40 /32 45 /26 43 /24
S. Angle 41 /29 23 /48 62 / 9 38 /28 n/a n/a
H. Reid 37 /53 63 /29 11 /77 32 /58 34 /55 36 /52
S. Ashjian 7 /27 4 /37 10 /16 7 /29 n/a n/a

New Hampshire
A WMUR-TV Granite State Poll; conducted 4/12-21 by the UNH Survey Center; surveyed 512 adults; margin of error +/- 4.3%. Subsample of 462 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.6% (release, 4/29). Party ID breakdown: 41%D, 40%R, 17%I. Tested: Ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), businessman Jim Bender (R), businessman Bill Binnie (R), '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Rep. Paul Hodes (D-02).

General Election Matchups (LVs)
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3 10/2 7/1
K. Ayotte 47% 14% 79% 44% 56% 38% 41% 40% 39%
P. Hodes 32 65 5 23 29 35 33 33 35
Other 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 2
Undec 21 21 16 32 15 26 25 25 24

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
P. Hodes 37% 72% 7% 26% 36% 38% 36%
J. Bender 34 3 67 26 43 25 27
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Undec 29 24 26 48 21 37 35

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3
B. Binnie 38% 4% 72% 31% 48% 28% 30%
P. Hodes 36 72 7 24 34 39 34
Other 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Undec 26 24 22 43 18 33 33

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3 10/2
O. Lamontagne 37% 6% 71% 28% 48% 28% 29% 28%
P. Hodes 36 72 5 24 33 39 38 37
Other 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 2
Undec 26 22 23 47 19 33 30 33

Firmness Of Choice (LVs)
-                          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/3 10/2
Definitely decided 14% 20% 12% 6% 18% 11% 10% 6%
Leaning toward someone 14 12 18 7 17 11 11 8
Still trying to decide 72 68 70 86 65 78 78 86

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/3     10/2
K. Ayotte 38%/13% 26%/24% 52%/ 4% 38%/ 8% 38%/12% 37%/ 8%
P. Hodes 30 /31 50 / 8 15 /56 20 /29 32 /27 30 /26
O. Lamontagne 10 /12 3 /19 17 / 6 11 / 9 12 / 9 11 / 7
B. Binnie 22 /11 6 /17 36 / 5 26 / 8 10 / 4 n/a
J. Bender 5 / 5 3 / 8 7 / 2 5 / 3 6 / 2 n/a

Ohio
A Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 4/27-29; surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/30). Tested: Sec/State Jennifer Brunner and LG Lee Fisher.

Primary Election Matchup
-             All Men Wom
L. Fisher 55% 57% 52%
J. Brunner 27 25 29
Undec 18 17 19

Fav/Unfav
-             All     Men     Wom
B. Obama 86%/12% 86%/13% 85%/11%
L. Fisher 65 /12 66 /12 63 /11
G. Voinovich 51 /36 54 /35 48 /36
J. Brunner 46 /13 46 /13 46 /13
J. Kasich 20 /29 24 /37 16 /22
R. Portman 15 /24 15 /32 14 /18

Which Candidate Has A Better Chance At Beating Portman In The General Election?
-             All Men Wom
L. Fisher 55% 60% 51%
J. Brunner 15 14 16
Undec 30 25 33

Strickland Has Endorsed Fisher In The Primary. Does This Make You More/Less Likely To Support Fisher?
-             All Men Wom
More likely 50% 52% 47%
Less likely 10 9 10
No diff 41 38 42

Which Candidate Has Run A More Negative Campaign?
-             All Men Wom
J. Brunner 16% 17% 14%
L. Fisher 10 11 10
Undec 71 68 74

Thursday, April 29, 2010

House 2010

IN-03
A SurveyUSA (IVR) poll; conducted 4/22-26 for the the Mike Downs Center for IN Politics; surveyed 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9%. Tested: Rep. Mark Souder, Ford dealership owner Bob Thomas, '94 IN-04 nominee/ex-Cong. aide Phil Troyer and Greg Dickman.

Primary Election Matchup
M. Souder   35%
B. Thomas 29
P. Troyer 19
G. Dickman 2
Undec 16

Governor 2010

Arkansas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/26; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/28).

Beebe As Gov.
-           Now 3/30 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28
Approve 68% 74% 75% 73% 68% 67% 69%
Disapprove 30 25 22 24 29 28 30

Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 4/21-26; surveyed 1,568 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5% (release, 4/29). Tested: Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13
T. Strickland 44% 83% 9% 33% 41% 45% 43% 44% 40% 46%
J. Kasich 38 10 76 38 42 34 38 39 40 36
Other 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2
Not vote -- -- -- 1 1 -- 1 2 1 1
Undec 17 6 14 26 14 19 17 15 18 15

Strickland As Gov.
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1
Approve 47% 75% 22% 41% 46% 47% 49% 48% 45% 48% 46%
Disapprove 38 13 64 44 43 35 40 40 43 42 42

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/29    2/21
T. Strickland 45%/32% 71%/11% 23%/54% 37%/38% 46%/35% 45%/36%
J. Kasich 27 /10 15 /17 49 / 4 22 / 8 24 /10 26 /10

Strickland Handling Economy
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1
Approve 36% 59% 17% 31% 36% 36% 35% 35% 33% 33% 33%
Disapprove 53 30 75 59 54 53 52 53 52 54 53

Strickland Handling OH Budget
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 9/13 7/1 5/4
Approve 36% 59% 17% 31% 38% 35% 37% 32% 36% 32% 43%
Disapprove 48 29 69 50 49 47 47 51 47 53 40

Do You Think Strickland Has Kept His Campaign Promises So Far?
-    All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/09
Yes 37% 59% 22% 28% 34% 39% 36% 34% 32% 37% 34% 44% 46%
No 41 24 56 46 43 39 41 45 43 40 40 32 30

Who Would Do A Better Job Rebuilding OH's Economy?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9
J. Kasich 41% 14% 72% 45% 45% 37% 38% 41% 41%
T. Strickland 39 71 11 29 39 38 38 35 33
No difference 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 --
Undec 18 13 14 23 14 22 22 22 27

Who Would Do A Better Job Handling OH's Budget?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9
J. Kasich 40% 14% 70% 44% 43% 37% 39% 42% 42%
T. Strickland 39 71 11 30 40 39 38 36 34
No difference 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 1 --
Undec 19 13 16 24 15 21 21 21 25

Who Do You Trust More To Do In Office What They Say They Will Do During The Campaign?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21
T. Strickland 41% 74% 15% 30% 38% 43% 40% 35%
J. Kasich 35 12 64 36 39 32 35 36
No difference 7 4 5 8 7 6 5 6
Undec 18 11 15 26 16 19 20 22

Who Do You Believe Most Shares Your Values?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21
T. Strickland 42% 75% 17% 33% 40% 44% 42% 40%
J. Kasich 36 12 67 36 41 31 34 36
No difference 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 3
Undec 19 11 13 28 16 22 22 21

Oregon
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/26; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/29). Tested: '08 Treas. nominee/businessman Allen Alley (R), ex-Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley (R), '90 candidate/'98 SEN nominee/businessman/ex-state Sen. John Lim (R), '98 nominee/anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore (R), '02 SEN nominee/ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D) and ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D).

General Election Matchups
-             Now 2/17                      Now 2/17
B. Bradbury 43% 41% J. Kitzhaber 48% 42%
A. Alley 34 35 A. Alley 33 34
Other 7 9 Other 6 8
Undec 16 16 Undec 13 16

-             Now 2/17                      Now 2/17
B. Bradbury 40% 39% J. Kitzhaber 41% 42%
C. Dudley 40 36 C. Dudley 41 34
Other 6 7 Other 6 7
Undec 13 17 Undec 13 15

-             Now 2/17                      Now 2/17
B. Bradbury 44% 38% J. Kitzhaber 50% 40%
J. Lim 32 35 J. Lim 34 38
Other 9 9 Other 5 8
Undec 15 17 Undec 12 14

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     2/17
J. Kitzhaber 58%/34% 44%/42%
B. Bradbury 48 /35 46 /31
C. Dudley 46 /25 40 /24
A. Alley 38 /35 30 /29
J. Lim 34 /35 31 /28

Senate 2010

Arizona
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/23-25; surveyed 387 GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 5.0% (release, 4/29). Tested: Sen. John McCain, Navy vet Jim Deakin and ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

Primary Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom
J. McCain 46% 36% 56%
J.D. Hayworth 35 43 27
J. Deakin 7 8 6
Undec 12 13 11

McCain As Sen.
-              All Men Wom 9/25
Approve 44% 40% 49% 65%
Disapprove 45 48 42 25

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Men     Wom
J.D. Hayworth 37%/40% 44%/39% 29%/41%

A Rocky Mountain Poll; conducted 4/12-25 by the Behavior Research Center; surveyed 800 adults; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 666 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.8%. Further subsample of 289 GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 5.8% (release, 4/28). Tested: McCain, Hayworth and Tucson city Councilor Rodney Glassman (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All GOP Ind
J. McCain 54% 55% 46%
J.D. Hayworth 28 26 43
Undec 18 19 11

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind
J. McCain 46% 20% 77% 36%
R. Glassman 24 50 5 19
Undec 30 30 18 45

-              All Dem GOP Ind
J.D. Hayworth 37% 14% 67% 24%
R. Glassman 30 56 9 28
Undec 33 30 24 48

Would You Say That McCain Is Doing An Excellent/Good, Fair, Poor/Very Poor Job As Regards ___?
-                              Excel./Good Fair Poor/VeryPoor
Working to maintain a strong 53% 17% 19%
military defense for U.S.
Running a clean campaign that 34 28 27
does not engage in name
calling or mudslinging
Representing the opinions of 31 20 39
people like you
Working to promote peace in 30 32 23
the world
Working to reduce the 29 22 25
partisan stalemate in DC
Working to protect the 28 28 25
environment
Working to create jobs in AZ 28 19 38
Working to secure the 27 24 36
U.S./Mexico border
Working to stop the illegal 27 21 39
drug trade between U.S. and
Mexico
Working to improve education 26 25 33
in the U.S.
Working for immigration 26 17 35
reform

Arkansas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/26; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/28). Tested: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), LG Bill Halter (D), state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), Rep. John Boozman (R-03), Safe Foods Corp. CEO Curtis Coleman (R), state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R) and '04 nominee/'06 LG nominee/ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 3/30 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28               
G. Baker 53% 51% 45% 52% 51% 47% 47%
B. Lincoln 31 36 40 33 39 41 39
Other 12 6 6 6 3 6 5
Undec 4 7 8 8 7 7 8

-           Now 3/30 3/1 2/1
J. Boozman 57% 51% 48% 54%
B. Lincoln 29 36 39 35
Other 9 6 6 4
Undec 5 7 7 7

-           Now 3/30 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28
C. Coleman 52% 48% 43% 50% 48% 44% 43%
B. Lincoln 32 36 41 34 38 40 41
Other 8 7 7 7 4 7 5
Undec 7 8 10 9 9 9 11

-           Now 3/30 3/1 2/1 1/5 12/1 9/28
K. Hendren 51% 51% 43% 51% 47% 46% 44%
B. Lincoln 30 35 38 35 39 39 41
Other 11 5 7 7 4 6 5
Undec 8 8 12 7 10 9 10

-           Now 3/30 3/1
J. Holt 54% 51% 45%
B. Lincoln 31 35 38
Other 6 7 6
Undec 9 7 10

-           Now 3/30 3/1
G. Baker 48% 44% 44%
B. Halter 33 36 37
Other 10 7 5
Undec 9 12 13

-           Now 3/30 3/1
J. Boozman 56% 48% 52%
B. Halter 31 34 33
Other 7 8 6
Undec 7 11 9

-           Now 3/30 3/1
C. Coleman 43% 40% 38%
B. Halter 37 37 35
Other 11 10 9
Undec 9 13 18

-           Now 3/30 3/1
K. Hendren 45% 42% 42%
B. Halter 33 34 35
Other 13 10 7
Undec 9 13 15

-           Now 3/30 3/1
J. Holt 49% 43% 42%
B. Halter 31 34 38
Other 12 9 8
Undec 8 14 12

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/30    3/1     2/1     1/5     12/1
J. Boozman 58%/24% 47%/25% 51%/27% 51%/24% n/a n/a
B. Halter 48 /42 47 /40 48 /34 n/a n/a n/a
J. Holt 47 /27 46 /24 44 /25 n/a n/a n/a
G. Baker 42 /27 37 /25 38 /23 40 /22 42%/20% 40%/19%
C. Coleman 37 /29 35 /25 34 /24 39 /19 n/a 37 /22
K. Hendren 36 /26 38 /21 36 /23 35 /19 37 /20 41 /19
B. Lincoln 31 /63 37 /61 41 /52 36 /59 38 /56 43 /52

Florida
A WFLA-TV poll; conducted 4/28 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 500 adults; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/28).

Crist As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
Approve 52% 46% 51% 60% 49% 55% 53% 43% 57%
Disapprove 42 44 45 37 49 36 41 41 43

Indiana
A SurveyUSA (IVR) poll; conducted 4/22-26 for the IPFW Mike Downs Center for IN Politics; surveyed 407 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Brown, FoxNews.com, 4/29). Tested: Wachovia Securities branch mgr. Don Bates (R), businessman/tea-party organizer Richard Behney (R), ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R) and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R).

Primary Election Matchup
D. Coats       36%
J. Hostettler 24
M. Stutzman 18
D. Bates 6
R. Behney 4
Undec 13

Nevada
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/27; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/29). Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), state GOP chair Sue Lowden (R) and '04 state Senate nominee/'06 sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R).

General Election Matchups
-             Now 3/31 3/3 2/2 1/11 12/9
S. Angle 48% 51% 46% 44% 44% 47%
H. Reid 40 40 38 40 40 43
Other 7 6 11 7 10 7
Undec 4 3 5 8 7 3

-             Now 3/31 3/3 2/2 1/11 12/9 9/14
S. Lowden 52% 54% 51% 45% 48% 49% 50%
H. Reid 39 39 38 39 36 43 40
Other 6 4 7 8 8 6 4
Undec 3 2 3 8 7 3 5

-             Now 3/31 3/3 2/2 1/11 12/9 9/14
D. Tarkanian 51% 49% 50% 47% 50% 49% 50%
H. Reid 41 42 37 39 36 43 43%
Other 4 6 9 8 5 6 4
Undec 4 2 4 6 9 2 3

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     3/31    3/3     2/2     1/11    12/9
S. Lowden 56%/35% 54%/33% 56%/31% 48%/27% 47%/28% 46%/32%
D. Tarkanian 53 /35 55 /34 52 /29 50 /35 49 /28 49 /30
S. Angle 48 /32 48 /33 40 /36 37 /30 39 /33 40 /37
H. Reid 43 /56 37 /62 39 /58 44 /55 41 /55 40 /57

Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 4/21-26; surveyed 1,568 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5% (release, 4/29). Tested: Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D), LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-Rep./ex-OMB Dir. Rob Portman (R).

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1
J. Brunner 40% 77% 7% 32% 39% 42% 38% 35% 34% 39% 35%
R. Portman 36 6 79 34 40 33 37 40 38 34 34
Other 1 -- -- 2 1 -- 1 -- -- 1 1
Not vote 2 2 -- 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1
Undec 21 15 14 29 19 23 23 23 27 25 29

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1
L. Fisher 40% 79% 7% 31% 37% 43% 41% 37% 36% 42% 37%
R. Portman 37 7 80 35 42 33 37 40 39 31 33
Other 1 -- -- 2 1 -- 1 -- -- 1 2
Not vote 1 -- -- 2 1 -- 1 2 1 1 2
Undec 21 13 13 30 19 23 21 21 24 26 26

Fisher As LG
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1
Approve 42% 66% 21% 37% 42% 42% 43% 39% 39% 44% 39%
Disapprove 27 13 44 28 31 24 23 22 23 21 24

Brunner As Sec/State
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1
Approve 42% 65% 21% 39% 42% 43% 42% 36% 38% 41% 38%
Disapprove 27 8 48 29 31 23 23 25 25 23 25

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/29    2/21
L. Fisher 27%/13% 47%/ 4% 11%/25% 21%/12% 27%/13% 26%/12%
R. Portman 25 / 8 9 /15 51 / 1 22 / 8 25 / 8 25 / 7
J. Brunner 25 /14 41 / 4 9 /23 22 /15 21 /12 21 /12

Would You Like To See The Next Sen. Generally Support/Oppose Obama's Policies?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/29
Support 45% 84% 11% 36% 42% 48% 44%
Oppose 48 10 84 55 53 44 46

PEW Research Center

Energy
Conducted 4/21-26; surveyed 1,546 adults; margin of error +/- 2.5% (release, 4/28).

Obama Handling Energy Policy
-           Now 1/10 11/8 7/26
Approve 43% 45% 50% 46%
Disapprove 34 35 34 31

Do You Think ___ Could Do A Better Job Of Dealing With The Nation's Energy Problems?
-           Now 2/9 8/30 2/08 10/06 9/06 2/06 9/05 5/01
Dem Party 40% 44% 47% 57% 44% 47% 45% 44% 34%
The GOP 32 32 25 23 28 27 32 31 36
Both 8 8 7 5 5 4 6 6 10
Neither 9 6 9 5 6 7 7 8 7
Undec 12 10 12 10 17 15 10 11 13

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

House 2010

PA-15
An Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll; conducted 4/19-27; surveyed 303 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.6% (Kraus, Allentown Morning Call, 4/28). Tested: Rep. Charlie Dent (R), local "Tea Party" ldr./project manager Mat Benol (R) and Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan (D).

General Election Matchups
C. Dent      45%
J. Callahan 33

J. Callahan  37%
M. Benol 3

Fav/Unfav
C. Dent      53%/29%
J. Callahan 43 /13

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/27; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/28). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) and '90 nominee/AG Terry Goddard (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 4/15 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24
J. Brewer 48% 44% 36% 41% 35% 35%
T. Goddard 40 40 45 43 44 42
Other 7 9 12 7 9 13
Undec 5 6 7 9 12 11

Brewer As Gov.
-           Now 4/15 4/13 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24 7/21 5/6
Approve 56% 40% 48% 41% 37% 39% 37% 48% 51%
Disapprove 42 56 51 55 60 57 57 48 45

A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/23-25; surveyed 813 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 4/27). Party ID breakdown: 43%R, 35%D, 21%I. Tested: Brewer, Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R), Treas. Dean Martin (R), NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills (R), ex-state GOP Chair John Munger (R) and Goddard.

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His Oth
T. Goddard 47% 83% 20% 44% 42% 51% 43% 62% 51%
J. Arpaio 44 13 68 46 49 40 47 35 37
Undec 9 4 12 10 9 9 10 3 12

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His Oth 9/21
T. Goddard 47% 88% 15% 44% 41% 52% 41% 71% 48% 46%
J. Brewer 44 8 73 42 50 38 49 25 36 36
Undec 10 4 12 14 9 10 10 4 15 17

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His Oth 9/21
T. Goddard 47% 87% 17% 41% 42% 51% 42% 66% 50% 45%
D. Martin 36 5 63 31 42 31 40 25 27 37
Undec 17 7 21 28 16 18 19 9 24 18

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His Oth
T. Goddard 45% 84% 15% 43% 41% 49% 41% 60% 48%
B. Mills 37 8 63 30 41 33 40 24 31
Undec 18 8 22 27 18 19 18 16 22

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His Oth
T. Goddard 46% 86% 15% 41% 41% 50% 40% 66% 51%
J. Munger 31 5 55 25 37 26 35 20 22
Undec 23 9 30 34 22 24 25 14 27

Brewer As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His Oth 9/21
Approve 35% 14% 54% 33% 40% 31% 38% 27% 31% 26%
Disapprove 46 75 27 39 43 49 43 57 55 43

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     9/21
J. Arpaio 53%/38% 26%/68% 73%/18% 58%/31% n/a
T. Goddard 39 /27 62 / 9 20 /44 40 /24 44%/22%
D. Martin 19 /13 10 /19 27 / 9 16 /12 27 /19
B. Mills 18 /16 9 /26 27 /10 17 /14 n/a
J. Munger 4 /11 3 /15 5 / 8 3 /10 n/a

Georgia
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/27). Tested: AG Thurbert Baker (D), ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R), Sec/State Karen Handel (R), state Sen. Eric Johnson (R) and Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 3/17 2/17 1/20
N. Deal 46% 43% 43% 42%
R. Barnes 39 40 37 43
Other 7 5 7 7
Undec 8 13 14 8

-            Now 1/20
N. Deal 47% 49%
T. Baker 31 32
Other 9 7
Undec 13 11

-            Now 1/20
K. Handel 44% 46%
T. Baker 36 34
Other 5 8
Undec 15 11

-            Now 3/17 2/17 1/20
K. Handel 42% 42% 45% 42%
R. Barnes 41 39 36 43
Other 7 5 5 5
Undec 10 14 14 10

E. Johnson   38%
T. Baker 35
Other 9
Undec 18

-            Now 3/17 2/17
R. Barnes 42% 40% 37%
E. Johnson 37 38 37
Other 8 6 8
Undec 13 16 18

-            Now 1/20
J. Oxendine 44% 50%
T. Baker 34 32
Other 9 8
Undec 13 10

-            Now 3/17 2/17 1/20
J. Oxendine 45% 41% 45% 44%
R. Barnes 43 41 37 42
Other 6 6 7 6
Undec 6 11 10 8

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     3/17    2/17    1/20
J. Oxendine 51%/35% 53%/34% 58%/31% 59%/29%
K. Handel 48 /26 44 /32 53 /24 52 /24
R. Barnes 47 /43 44 /43 48 /43 52 /38
T. Baker 42 /39 n/a n/a 45 /33
N. Deal 41 /27 39 /30 40 /27 44 /29
E. Johnson 29 /28 32 /27 36 /25 n/a

Michigan
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/22; surveyed 321 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.5% (release, 4/27). Tested: Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D), state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) and '02 LG candidate/state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D).

Primary Election Matchup
-                 Now 3/24
A. Dillon 13% 12%
V. Bernero 10 8
A. Wheeler Smith 9 10
Other 15 17
Undec 51 53

Fav/Unfav
-                 Now     3/24
A. Wheeler Smith 32%/13% 22%/13%
A. Dillon 32 /17 27 /14
V. Bernero 31 /11 24 /13

Obama As POTUS
-             Now 3/24
Approve 87% 86%
Disapprove 12 14

Granholm As Gov.
-             Now 3/24
Approve 62% 65%
Disapprove 38 34

Senate 2010

Arizona
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/23-25; surveyed 813 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 4/28). Party ID breakdown: 43%R, 35%D, 21%I. Tested: Sen. John McCain (R), ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) and Tucson city Councilor Rodney Glassman (D).

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His Oth 9/21
J. McCain 49% 16% 78% 44% 51% 47% 55% 30% 36% 55%
R. Glassman 33 64 11 28 32 35 30 47 38 25
Undec 18 19 12 28 17 19 16 23 26 20

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His Oth
R. Glassman 42% 77% 15% 40% 40% 43% 40% 48% 45%
J.D. Hayworth 39 8 64 38 45 34 41 29 36
Undec 19 15 22 23 15 23 18 23 20

McCain As Sen.
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His Oth 9/21
Approve 34% 21% 48% 28% 29% 39% 38% 25% 25% 48%
Disapprove 55 71 39 58 57 52 51 63 65 42

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     9/21
J.D. Hayworth 23%/50% 6%/68% 37%/37% 22%/49% n/a
R. Glassman 7 /15 14 /14 1 /16 7 /13 6%/12%

North Dakota
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/20; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/27). Tested: Gov. John Hoeven (R) and state Sen. Tracy Potter (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 3/23 2/10
J. Hoeven 69% 68% 71%
T. Potter 24 25 17
Other 2 2 4
Undec 5 5 8

Hoeven As Gov.
-           Now 12/15
Approve 83% 87%
Disapprove 15 11

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/23    2/10    12/15
J. Hoeven 82%/16% 83%/14% 83%/12% 82%/15%
T. Potter 43 /31 40 /29 37 /32 n/a

Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 4/22-26; surveyed 987 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 4/28). Tested: Tested: Sec/State Jennifer Brunner and LG Lee Fisher.

Primary Election Matchup
-                            RVs---------------------------->
- All Men Wom 3/28 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/09 2/09
L. Fisher 41% 38% 43% 33% 29% 24% 26% 24% 20% 18% 18%
J. Brunner 24 24 24 26 20 22 17 21 16 14 16
Other 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 5 19 14
Not vote -- -- -- -- 2 2 2 3 1 2 --
Undec 34 37 32 40 48 51 55 51 59 46 53

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Men     Wom     3/28
L. Fisher 41%/ 7% 39%/ 9% 42%/ 6% 33%/ 8%
J. Brunner 26 / 7 30 / 9 24 / 6 24 / 7

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You Trust More To Do In Office What They Say They Will Do During The Campaign?
-                                RVs
- All Men Wom 3/28 2/21
L. Fisher 26% 29% 25% 23% 34%
J. Brunner 19 20 18 19 31
No difference 10 11 9 7 4
Undec 44 29 48 51 31

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You Believe Most Shares Your Values?
-                                RVs
- All Men Wom 3/28 2/21
L. Fisher 31% 33% 30% 23% 31%
J. Brunner 19 20 18 20 29
No difference 5 7 5 5 2
Undec 45 40 47 52 38

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You See As More Consistently Liberal?
-                                RVs
- All Men Wom 3/28 2/21
L. Fisher 25% 26% 24% 21% 28%
J. Brunner 20 22 18 15 26
No difference 3 5 2 3 3
Undec 52 47 55 61 43

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You Think Would Be More Likely To Win The Nov. General Election If Nominated?
-               All Men Wom 3/28
L. Fisher 46% 48% 46% 37%
J. Brunner 16 17 15 18
No difference 1 3 -- 2
Undec 36 33 39 42

Does The Fact That Brunner Is A Woman Make It More/Less Likely You Will Vote For Her In The Primary, Or Doesn't It Make A Difference?
-                                RVs
- All Men Wom 3/28 2/21
More likely 11% 7% 13% 12% 11%
Less likely 2 2 2 2 3
No difference 86 90 83 84 85
Undec 2 2 1 2 1

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

House 2010

FL-25
A Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 3/24-27; surveyed 417 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (McArdle, Roll Call, 4/27). Tested: '08 nominee/ex-Obama appointee Joe Garcia (D) and state Rep. David Rivera (R).

General Election Matchup
J. Garcia  38%
D. Rivera 35
Undec 24

WV-01
A FrederickPolls (D) poll; conducted 4/21-22 for Rep. Alan Mollohan (D); surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Mancini, Parkersburg News and Sentinel, 4/27). Tested: Mollohan and state Sen. Mike Oliverio.

Primary Election Matchup
A. Mollohan  45%
M. Oliverio 36
Undec 19

Governor 2010

Michigan
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/22; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1%. Subsample of 481 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 4/27). Tested: Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R), AG Mike Cox (R), Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-02) and venture capitalist Rick Snyder (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              Now 3/24
P. Hoekstra 28% 27%
R. Snyder 14 18
M. Cox 13 13
M. Bouchard 9 6
Other 5 5
Undec 32 32

General Election Matchup
-              Now 10/21
Generic GOPer 41% 36%
Generic Dem 36 37
Other 5 n/a
Undec 18 27

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-              Now     3/24
P. Hoekstra 55%/17% 54%/13%
M. Cox 50 /23 45 /23
M. Bouchard 42 /17 37 /19
R. Synder 41 /15 40 /14

Rhode Island
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/21; surveyed 500 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/27). Tested: Treas. Frank Caprio (D), ex-GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I), AG Patrick Lynch (D) and ex-Gov. Carcieri comm. dir. John Robitaille (R).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 3/25 2/25
L. Chafee 33% 39% 37%
F. Caprio 33 28 27
J. Robitaille 21 22 19
Undec 13 11 17

-              Now 3/25 2/25
L. Chafee 35% 37% 38%
J. Robitaille 26 26 22
P. Lynch 24 22 24
Undec 15 15 16

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     3/25    2/25
F. Caprio 56%/29% 53%/29% 52%/28%
L. Chafee 53 /38 57 /37 55 /37
P. Lynch 44 /45 45 /41 37 /48
J. Robitaille 39 /27 35 /29 31 /31

South Dakota
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/21; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/26). Tested: LG Dennis Daugaard (R), state Sen. Gordon Howie (R), state Sen. Dave Knudson (R) and state Sen. Scott Heidepriem (D).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 3/25 2/23
D. Daugaard 53% 49% 41%
S. Heidepriem 33 32 32
Other 5 6 7
Undec 9 13 19

-              Now 3/25 2/23
S. Heidepriem 46% 39% 37%
G. Howie 31 34 29
Other 8 9 12
Undec 14 17 22

-              Now 3/25 2/23
S. Heidepriem 41% 37% 34%
D. Knudson 41 32 31
Other 9 13 13
Undec 10 19 22

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     3/25    2/23
D. Daugaard 61%/23% 60%/14% 45%/22%
D. Knudson 54 /21 35 /17 32 /21
S. Heidepriem 48 /36 42 /33 42 /33
G. Howie 33 /36 38 /25 29 /29

Senate 2010

North Carolina
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/24-26; surveyed 458 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.6% (release, 4/27). Tested: Atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), Susan Harris (D), atty/Obama fundraiser Ken Lewis (D), '02 candidate/Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D), atty Marcus Williams (D) and librarian Ann Worthy (D).

Primary Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 4/11 3/15 2/15
E. Marshall 26% 27% 26% 34% 13% 32% 23% 20% 29%
C. Cunningham 23 23 22 25 19 11 17 16 12
K. Lewis 7 8 7 4 13 4 9 11 5
M. Williams 4 5 3 1 8 6 0 2 2
S. Harris 3 4 2 2 3 6 4 4 n/a
A. Worthy 3 2 3 3 3 11 1 0 n/a
Undec 34 31 36 30 41 30 45 47 51

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Men     Wom     4/11    3/15    2/15
E. Marshall 44%/15% 42%/17% 45%/14% 32%/ 7% 27%/10% 29%/ 9%
C. Cunningham 39 /17 40 /16 39 /17 8 / 6 8 / 9 9 / 7
K. Lewis 23 /17 28 /14 20 /18 11 / 9 9 /12 9 / 9

A WRAL-TV poll; conducted 4/23-25 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 511 Dem primary LVs and 520 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.3% for each (release, 4/26). Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), Asheboro City councilor Eddie Burks (R), businessman Brad Jones (R), disbarred atty/ex-state Rep. Larry Linney (R), Cunningham, Harris, Lewis, Marshall, Williams and Worthy.

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-              All Men Wom Wht Blk
E. Marshall 23% 20% 25% 28% 15%
C. Cunningham 19 24 15 22 14
K. Lewis 10 13 6 8 7
S. Harris 7 5 9 6 9
A. Worthy 4 2 5 2 9
M. Williams 4 2 5 2 6
Undec 34 34 33 32 41

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom
R. Burr 59% 62% 57%
L. Linney 6 9 2
B. Jones 6 6 5
E. Burks 3 3 2
Undec 26 19 34

Utah
A survey of 400 delegates to the state GOP convo; conducted 4/22-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Gehrke, Salt Lake Tribune, 4/27). Tested: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), '02/'04 UT-02 candidate/venture capitalist Tim Bridgewater (R), ex-Rep. Merrill Cook (R), WebsTarget marketing VP Cherilyn Eagar (R) and ex-Jon Huntsman gen. counsel Mike Lee (R).

Who Is Your First Choice?
M. Lee          37%
T. Bridgewater 20
B. Bennett 16
C. Eagar 11
M. Cook 1
Undec 15

Fav/Unfav
B. Bennett      28%/61%

Monday, April 26, 2010

House 2010

FL-22
A Wilson Research Strategies (R) poll; conducted 4/18-19 for '08 nominee Allen West (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/26). Tested: West and Rep. Ron Klein (D).

General Election Matchup
A. West    44%
R. Klein 42

Fav/Unfav
R. Klein   43%/31%
A. West 23 / 8

ND-AL
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/20; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/26). Tested: Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) and state Rep. Rick Berg (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 3/24 2/10
R. Berg 49% 51% 46%
E. Pomeroy 45 44 40
Other 2 1 3
Undec 4 4 11

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/24    2/10
R. Berg 53%/28% 56%/22% n/a
E. Pomeroy 51 /48 48 /49 48%/46%

SD-AL
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/21; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/26). Tested: Tested: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D), state Sen. Blake Curd (R), Sec/State Chris Nelson (R) and state Rep. Kristi Noem (R).

General Election Matchups
-                   Now 3/25 2/23
S. Herseth Sandlin 48% 45% 51%
B. Curd 36 33 33
Other 7 8 5
Undec 9 14 12

-                   Now 3/25 2/23
S. Herseth Sandlin 45% 44% 45%
C. Nelson 41 42 38
Other 5 6 6
Undec 9 9 11

-                   Now 3/25 2/23
S. Herseth Sandlin 50% 46% 49%
K. Noem 35 35 34
Other 5 8 4
Undec 9 10 13

Fav/Unfav
-                   Now     3/25
S. Herseth Sandlin 55%/43% 52%/43%

WV-01
An Orion Strategies poll; conducted 4/21 for state Sen. Mike Oliverio (D); surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (King, Wheeling News-Register, 4/24). Tested: Oliverio and Rep. Alan Mollohan (D).

Primary Election Matchup
M. Oliverio  41%
A. Mollohan 33
Undec 26

Governor 2010

Michigan
A Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll; conducted 4/21; surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/23). Tested: Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D), state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D), '98 nominee/ex-Kevorkian atty Geoffrey Fieger (D) and '02 LG candidate/state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D).

Primary Election Matchup
G. Fieger         28%
A. Dillon 20
V. Bernero 13
A. Wheeler Smith 8
Other 2
Undec 29

Oklahoma
A SoonerPoll.com poll; conducted 4/5-15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Oversamples of 304 Dem primary LVs and 301 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 5.6% for each (release, 4/23). Party reg. breakdown of main sample: 53%D, 40%R, 7%I. Tested: LG Jari Askins (D), AG Drew Edmondson (D), state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) and Rep. Mary Fallin (R-05).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-             All Men Wom 1/5 4/09
D. Edmondson 40% 42% 39% 46% 29%
J. Askins 35 35 36 36 34
Undec 25 23 26 18 38

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 1/5
M. Fallin 62% 60% 64% 68%
R. Brogdon 13 16 11 16
Undec 25 24 25 16

Fav/Unfav
-             All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/5     4/09
M. Fallin 50%/25% 34%/36% 70%/10% 57%/20% 54%/29% 64%/16%
D. Edmondson 43 /24 51 /31 37 /34 29 /31 51 /31 50 /15
J. Askins 36 /20 64 /11 26 /33 43 /20 43 /28 46 /16
R. Brogdon 11 /14 7 /17 18 / 9 17 /17 13 /21 10 / 5

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/20; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/23). Tested: '02 candidate/Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (D), '98 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (R) and Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 3/16 2/17                 Now 3/16 2/17
M. Neumann 46% 46% 44% S. Walker 46% 48% 49%
T. Barrett 46 42 42 T. Barrett 44 42 40
Other 4 4 4 Other 3 2 1
Undec 5 8 10 Undec 7 8 10

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/16    2/17
M. Neumann 53%/31% 53%/27% 49%/31%
S. Walker 48 /33 55 /28 55 /29
T. Barrett 40 /46 53 /34 49 /36

Senate 2010

North Carolina
An Elon Univ. poll; conducted 4/19-22; surveyed 607 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/23).

Burr As Sen.
-           Now 2/25 10/29
Approve 37% 40% 37%
Disapprove 28 35 22

Do You Think Burr Has Performed Well Enough To Deserve Re-Election, Or Do You Think It's Time To Give A New Person A Chance?
-                     Now 2/25 10/29
Deserves re-election 26% 24% 19%
Time for new person 44 51 42
Undec 30 25 39

Utah
A Salt Lake Deseret News/KSL-TV poll; conducted 4/13-20 by Dan Jones & Assoc. (R); surveyed 605 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/26). Tested: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), radio host/author/ex-UT State Univ. admin. Scott Bradley (Const.), '02/'04 UT-02 candidate/venture capitalist Tim Bridgewater (R), David Chiu (R), ex-Rep. Merrill Cook (R), WebsTarget marketing VP Cherilyn Eagar (R), Leonard Fabiano (R), Jeremy Friedbaum (R), UT Alcohol & Bev. Control Commis. chair/deli chain owner Sam Granato (D), ex-Jon Huntsman gen. counsel Mike Lee (R) and accountant Christopher Stout (D).

General Election Matchup
-               Now 11/23
B. Bennett 27% 31%
M. Lee 9 3
T. Bridgewater 7 4
S. Granato 5 14
M. Cook 3 n/a
C. Eagar 2 5
S. Bradley 1 n/a
D. Chiu 0 n/a
L. Fabiano 0 n/a
C. Stout 0 n/a
Other 4 5
Undec 38 35

A survey of 525 delegates to the state GOP convo; conducted 4/13-20 by Dan Jones & Assoc. (R) (Bernick, Salt Lake Deseret News, 4/26). Tested: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), '02/'04 UT-02 candidate/venture capitalist Tim Bridgewater (R), David Chiu (R), ex-Rep. Merrill Cook (R), WebsTarget marketing VP Cherilyn Eagar (R), Leonard Fabiano (R), Jeremy Friedbaum (R) and ex-Jon Huntsman gen. counsel Mike Lee (R).

Who Is Your First Choice?
M. Lee          31%
B. Bennett 22
T. Bridgewater 17
C. Eagar 10
M. Cook 2
L. Fabiano 1
D. Chiu 0
J. Friedbaum 0
Other 2
Undec 14
Refused 2

Re-Elect Bennett?
Yes             22%
No 60
Undec 19

Washington
A KING-TV poll; conducted 4/19-22 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 517 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 4/23). Party ID breakdown: 36%D, 23%R, 39%I. Tested: Sen. Patty Murray (D), businessman Paul Akers (R), '98 WA-03 nominee/state Sen./ex-state GOP chair Don Benton (R), physician Art Coday (R), farmer/ex-Redskins tight end Clint Didier (R), '04/'08 GOV nominee Dino Rossi (R) and motivational speaker/author Chris Widener (R).

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Murray 45% 78% 10% 36% 40% 50%
P. Akers 44 18 80 47 50 38
Undec 11 5 10 17 10 12

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Murray 46% 79% 11% 37% 41% 52%
D. Benton 44 15 79 50 50 37
Undec 10 6 10 13 9 11

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Murray 45% 77% 12% 35% 41% 49%
A. Coday 41 14 77 45 47 35
Undec 14 9 11 19 12 16

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Murray 46% 76% 12% 38% 43% 49%
C. Didier 44 17 77 48 49 38
Undec 10 7 11 13 8 13

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Rossi 52% 21% 87% 59% 57% 46%
P. Murray 42 73 10 33 37 47
Undec 7 6 3 9 6 7

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Murray 45% 76% 10% 38% 40% 51%
C. Widener 43 15 78 47 50 34
Undec 12 9 12 15 10 15

Thursday, April 22, 2010

House 2010

NH-01
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/17-18; surveyed 647 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 4/22). Party ID breakdown: 32%D, 30%R, 38%I. Tested: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) and ex-Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R).

General Election Matchup
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
F. Guinta 46% 9% 85% 45% 41% 48%
C. Shea-Porter 45 84 7 42 50 42
Undec 10 7 8 13 9 10

Shea-Porter As Rep.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 41% 78% 6% 37% 38% 43%
Disapprove 50 13 85 53 56 45

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
F. Guinta 23%/25% 6%/41% 41%/10% 21%/24% 28%/29% 18%/22%

Obama As POTUS
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 45% 86% 9% 41% 42% 48%
Disapprove 49 10 88 51 55 44

NH-02
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/17-18; surveyed 827 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 4/22). Party ID breakdown: 34%D, 30%R, 36%I. Tested: Ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (R) and '02 nominee Katrina Swett (D).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Bass 47% 18% 76% 49% 52% 42%
K. Swett 32 63 5 26 29 35
Undec 21 19 19 25 20 23

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
C. Bass 35%/34% 17%/49% 51%/17% 39%/33% 40%/34% 31%/33%
K. Swett 19 /29 35 /18 6 /37 15 /33 18 /34 20 /24

Obama As POTUS
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 48% 85% 11% 45% 42% 54%
Disapprove 48 10 87 51 56 41

MO-08
An American Viewpoint (R) poll; conducted 4/19-20 for Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/22). Tested: Emerson and Iraq vet Tommy Sowers (D).

General Election Matchup
J. Emerson  71%
T. Sowers 18
Undec 10

Emerson As Rep.
Approve     73%
Disapprove 15

Fav/Unfav
J. Emerson  71%/17%
T. Sowers 8 / 7

Obama As POTUS
Approve     29%
Disapprove 65

Governor 2010

California
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/19; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/21). Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 3/15 2/15 1/19 11/17 9/24
J. Brown 50% 42% 46% 45% 43% 45%
S. Poizner 32 27 34 35 32 32
Other 10 13 7 9 7 5
Undec 8 18 13 11 18 18

-           Now 3/15 2/15 1/19 11/17 9/24 1/09
J. Brown 44% 40% 43% 43% 41% 44% 40%
M. Whitman 38 40 43 39 41 35% 38
Other 9 6 6 7 3 3 5
Undec 9 14 8 11 14 18 17

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/15    2/15    1/19    11/17   9/24
J. Brown 51%/42% 46%/44% 53%/41% 49%/40% 48%/41% 53%/37%
M. Whitman 47 /43 51 /34 56 /28 48 /30 47 /27 45 /28
S. Poizner 38 /46 29 /47 38 /37 40 /31 36 /26 36 /32

A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 4/18-19 for Whitman; surveyed 600 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/21). Tested: Whitman and Poizner.

Primary Election Matchup
M. Whitman  55%
S. Poizner 24

Fav/Unfav
M. Whitman  53%/22%
S. Poizner 26 /30

Regardless Of Your Vote, Who Do You Think Will Win The GOP Primary?
M. Whitman  64%
S. Poizner 10

Regardless Of Your Vote, Who Do You Think Is The Stronger GOP Candidate To Beat Brown?
M. Whitman  60%
S. Poizner 16

A Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research (R) poll; conducted 4/10-13; surveyed 304 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.6% (release, 4/22). Tested: Poizner and Whitman. (Note: Each candidate is ID by his/her ballot designation: Poizner is "Businessman" and Whitman is "Businesswoman".)

Primary Election Matchup
-           All Men Wom
M. Whitman 47% 52% 44%
S. Poizner 19 20 17
Uhdec 31 24 38

Senate 2010

California
A Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research (R) poll; conducted 4/10-13; surveyed 304 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.6% (release, 4/22). Tested: '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, Assemb. Chuck DeVore and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. (Note: Each candidate is ID by his/her ballot designation: Campbell is "Economist/Business Educator"; DeVore is "Assemblyman/Military Reservist"; and Fiorina is "Business Executive".)

Primary Election Matchup
-            All Men Wom
T. Campbell 31% 34% 27%
C. Fiorina 17 19 16
C. DeVore 15 19 11
Other 1 2 --
Undec 35 23 46

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/21; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/22). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17) and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). (Note: Crist was tested as an indie.)

General Election Matchup
-         Now 3/18
M. Rubio 37% 42%
C. Crist 30 22
K. Meek 22 25
Undec 11 11

Crist As Gov.
-             Now 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/27 12/14 10/20
Approve 56% 57% 45% 52% 51% 52% 49%
Disapprove 43 42 54 45 47 45 49

Fav/Unfav
-         Now     3/18    2/18    1/27    12/14   10/19
C. Crist 55%/30% 49%/48% 55%/41% 58%/40% 59%/38% 57%/41%
M. Rubio 51 /37 48 /34 51 /27 51 /31 41 /33 33 /34
K. Meek 38 /31 33 /39 42 /33 38 /36 51 /29 39 /34

North Carolina
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/19; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/21). Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) and Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 3/22 2/23 1/27
R. Burr 53% 51% 51% 50%
C. Cunningham 31 32 29 34
Other 4 7 6 5
Undec 13 11 14 11

-              Now 3/22 2/23 1/27 9/15
R. Burr 53% 51% 50% 47% 48%
E. Marshall 32 35 34 37 38
Other 6 6 4 6 3
Undec 12 8 12 10 11

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     3/22    2/23    1/27    9/15
R. Burr 55%/31% 60%/26% 60%/28% 56%/32% 58%/26%
E. Marshall 36 /40 38 /39 44 /32 41 /36 37 /34
C. Cunningham 34 /37 29 /32 34 /34 34 /29 n/a

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

House 2010

CA-19
A KFSN-TV poll; conducted 4/16-19 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 412 Dem primary LVs and 769 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.8% and 3.5% (release, 4/20). Tested: '94 CA-20 GOP candidate/'98 CA-20 candidate John Estrada (D), physician/atty Loraine Goodwin (D), ex-actor Les Marsden (D), state Sen. Jeff Denham (R), ex-Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson (R), ex-CA-11 Rep. Richard Pombo (R) and Fresno Council Pres. Larry Westerlund (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-              All Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth 3/17
L. Goodwin 18% 17% 19% 18% 30% 14% 12% 14%
J. Estrada 15 17 14 12 4 34 18 24
L. Marsden 10 12 9 12 9 4 15 8
Undec 56 53 58 58 57 48 55 54

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom 3/17
J. Denham 27% 27% 27% 25%
J. Patterson 26 26 26 26
R. Pombo 16 18 15 13
L. Westerlund 6 7 5 7
Undec 25 23 27 29

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/21). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer (R), Treas. Dean Martin (R), NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills (R), ex-state GOP Chair John Munger (R) and '90 nominee/AG Terry Goddard (D).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24
J. Brewer 44% 36% 41% 35% 35%
T. Goddard 40 45 43 44 42
Other 9 12 7 9 13
Undec 6 7 9 12 11

-           Now 3/16 1/20 11/18
D. Martin 47% 43% 44% 38%
T. Goddard 34 38 35 40
Other 8 6 6 11
Undec 11 13 14 11

-           Now 3/16
B. Mills 46% 43%
T. Goddard 37 37
Other 8 7
Undec 9 13

-           Now 3/16
J. Munger 44% 36%
T. Goddard 37 42
Other 10 13
Undec 9 9

Brewer As Gov.
-           Now 4/13 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24 7/21 5/6
Approve 40% 48% 41% 37% 39% 37% 48% 51%
Disapprove 56 51 55 60 57 57 48 45

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/16    1/20    11/18   9/24
T. Goddard 49%/44% 54%/31% 54%/32% 51%/35% 54%/38%
J. Brewer 45 /50 38 /57 42 /53 44 /48 42 /54
D. Martin 43 /31 47 /23 43 /28 41 /27 n/a
B. Mills 41 /31 35 /25 n/a n/a n/a
J. Munger 28 /37 33 /27 n/a n/a n/a

Maine
A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) poll; conducted 4/11-14 for '84 SEN nominee/'90 ME-01 candidate/state Senate Pres./ex-state House Speaker Libby Mitchell (D); surveyed 587 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/20). Tested: Mitchell, '90/'92 ME-02 nominee/ex-ME Dept. of Conservation Commis./ex-state Rep. Pat McGowan, ex-ME Econ./Commun. Dev. Commis./ex-state House Speaker John Richardson, ex-AG Steve Rowe and businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli.

Primary Election Matchup
L. Mitchell    36%
S. Rowe 16
P. McGowan 13
J. Richardson 4
R. Scarcelli 3
Undec 26

Fav/Unfav
L. Mitchell    44%/10%
S. Rowe 21 / 8
P. McGowan 17 /11
J. Richardson 12 / 9
R. Scarcelli 8 / 6

New Hampshire
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/17-18; surveyed 642 GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 4/21). Tested: Activist/businessman Jack Kimball (R), '02/'08 NH-01 candidate/ex-HHS Commis. John Stephen (R) and conservative think-tank founder Karen Testerman (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-             All Men Wom
J. Stephen 29% 34% 24%
K. Testerman 15 11 19
J. Kimball 10 10 9
Undec 46 44 48

Fav/Unfav
-             All     Men     Wom
J. Stephen 19%/11% 20%/14% 18%/ 9%
J. Kimball 5 / 7 5 / 9 4 / 5
K. Testerman 4 / 7 4 / 8 4 / 6

Senate 2010

New Hampshire
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/17-18; surveyed 1,474 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.6%. Subsample of 642 GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 3.9% (releases, 4/20-21). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 33%D, 30%R, 37%I. Tested: '04/'08 candidate/'96 NH-02 candidate/ex-state Rep. Tom Alciere (R), ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), businessman Jim Bender (R), businessman Bill Binnie (R), '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Rep. Paul Hodes (D-02).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom
K. Ayotte 43% 42% 43%
B. Binnie 19 22 17
J. Bender 11 11 11
O. Lamontagne 5 6 4
T. Alciere 1 1 1
Undec 21 17 25

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
K. Ayotte 47% 15% 81% 49% 51% 45%
P. Hodes 40 76 7 34 36 43
Undec 13 9 12 17 13 13

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Hodes 43% 83% 6% 37% 38% 46%
J. Bender 40 7 75 39 45 35
Undec 18 10 19 24 17 19

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Binnie 46% 12% 82% 46% 50% 42%
P. Hodes 41 80 5 36 36 46
Undec 13 8 13 18 14 12

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Hodes 43% 83% 7% 38% 39% 47%
O. Lamontagne 38 7 71 38 43 33
Undec 19 10 22 24 17 20

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind
K. Ayotte 34%/24% 20%/40% 50%/ 9% 35%/23%
P. Hodes 32 /39 61 /13 7 /61 28 /45
B. Binnie 25 /23 9 /37 39 /10 28 /20
O. Lamontagne 12 /28 5 /35 18 /20 14 /30
J. Bender 6 /18 1 /28 8 /10 8 /17

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-              All     Men     Wom
K. Ayotte 50%/12% 49%/14% 52%/10%
B. Binnie 40 /12 45 /11 35 /12
O. Lamontagne 20 /22 23 /25 18 /19
J. Bender 9 /12 10 /14 7 /10

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

House 2010

PA-12
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/17-18; surveyed 1,197 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 4/20). Party ID breakdown: 55%D, 35%R, 10%I. Tested: Businessman Tim Burns (R) and ex-Murtha staffer Mark Critz (D).

Special Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
T. Burns 44% 22% 77% 51% 50% 39%
M. Critz 41 63 10 31 36 46
Undec 15 15 13 18 14 15

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
T. Burns 45%/26% 28%/37% 70%/ 9% 49%/27% 50%/28% 40%/24%
M. Critz 41 /34 59 /19 14 /57 34 /32 38 /29 44 /29
N. Pelosi 24 /64 38 /44 3 /94 21 /72 23 /68 35 /61
P. Toomey 23 /21 11 /28 39 /13 30 /13 30 /24 16 /18

Obama As POTUS
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 33% 50% 7% 31% 32% 34%
Disapprove 57 35 90 63 59 55

Rendell As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 24% 34% 10% 23% 24% 25%
Disapprove 63 51 80 69 67 59

Cong. Dems Job Approval
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 29% 46% 4% 21% 28% 29%
Disapprove 60 38 93 67 63 58

Cong. GOPers Job Approval
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 26% 15% 46% 23% 28% 25%
Disapprove 56 69 34 61 56 56

Specter As Sen.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 28% 43% 6% 27% 27% 30%
Disapprove 60 42 86 64 63 57

SEN General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Toomey 47% 25% 78% 56% 51% 43%
A. Specter 37 55 8 32 35 38
Undec 17 19 14 12 15 19

A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 4/15 for the American Action Network (R); surveyed 300 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 4/19). Tested: Burns and Critz.

Special Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind
M. Critz 40% 57% 13% 13%
T. Burns 39 21 73 53
Undec 21 22 15 33

Obama As POTUS
-               All Dem GOP Ind
Excellent/good 31% 46% 4% 27%
Fair/poor 68 53 96 73

Pelosi As Speaker
-               All Dem GOP Ind
Excellent/good 20% 28% 6% 13%
Fair/poor 76 68 92 87

Direction Of U.S.
-           All Dem GOP Ind
Right dir. 26% 37% 4% 33%
Wrong dir. 61 48 90 47

The Health Care Law Recently Passed By Congress
-           All Dem GOP Ind
Approve 32% 43% 7% 47%
Disapprove 57 42 87 53

Governor 2010

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/20). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 3/18 2/18 2/1 12/14 10/20 6/22
B. McCollum 45% 47% 48% 46% 44% 46% 42%
A. Sink 38 36 35 35 39 35 34
Other 7 5 4 5 5 5 7
Undec 10 12 12 13 12 15 18

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     3/18    2/18    2/1     12/14   10/20
B. McCollum 50%/31% 51%/31% 53%/29% 53%/30% 54%/30% 49%/31%
A. Sink 43 /37 37 /41 38 /34 39 /34 45 /31 41 /30

Kansas
A KWCH-TV poll; conducted 4/9-11 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/16).

Brownback As Sen.
-           Now 3/14 2/14 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19
Approve 41% 50% 56% 51% 49% 57% 48% 54% 50%
Disapprove 47 42 37 40 40 30 42 36 34

Massachusetts
A Western New England College poll; conducted 4/11-15; surveyed 528 adults; margin of error +/- 4.3%. Subsample of 481 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 4/19). Tested: Gov. Deval Patrick (D), Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO/ex-MA HHS/Finance sec. Charlie Baker (R) and Treas. Tim Cahill (I).

General Election Matchup (RVs)
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Patrick 34% 66% 3% 26% 34% 33%
T. Cahill 29 17 32 35 29 28
C. Baker 27 6 64 29 31 23
Undec 10 10 1 10 6 15

Patrick As Gov.
-           All RVs  All  RVs   All   All
- Now Now 3/09 3/09 2/09 11/08
Approve 34% 34% 41% 40% 47% 50%
Disapprove 48 49 43 43 35 25

Fav/Unfav (RVs)
D. Patrick  40%/48%
T. Cahill 32 /18
C. Baker 20 /13

Direction Of MA (RVs)
-           Now 11/08
Right dir. 30% 39%
Wrong dir. 60 50

Pennsylvania
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/19). Tested: AG Tom Corbett (R), '04 SEN nominee/Montgomery Co. Commis./ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D), Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D) and Aud. Jack Wagner (D).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 3/16 2/10 12/10
T. Corbett 49% 49% 51% 48%
J. Hoeffel 29 28 29 26
Other 11 5 5 9
Undec 11 18 15 17

-           Now 3/16 2/10 12/10
T. Corbett 45% 46% 52% 44%
D. Onorato 36 29 26 28
Other 8 7 5 7
Undec 11 17 17 21

-           Now 3/16 2/10 12/10
T. Corbett 48% 46% 49% 43%
J. Wagner 27 33 28 30
Other 11 6 5 8
Undec 14 16 17 20

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/16    2/10    12/10
T. Corbett 56%/29% 59%/33% 67%/15% 59%/18%
D. Onorato 41 /32 36 /36 34 /35 30 /32
J. Hoeffel 33 /37 28 /35 33 /33 26 /35
J. Wagner 32 /36 40 /30 40 /28 37 /30

Senate 2010

California
A KABC-TV/KFSN-TV/KGTV-TV/KPIX-TV poll; conducted 4/9-11 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/16).

Boxer As Sen.
-           Now 3/14 2/14 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/29 8/27 7/19
Approve 41% 40% 47% 48% 39% 43% 41% 46% 50%
Disapprove 47 50 43 45 49 47 48 44 42

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/20).

Crist As Gov.
-           Now 3/18 2/18 1/27 12/14 10/20
Approve 57% 45% 52% 51% 52% 49%
Disapprove 42 54 45 47 45 49

Indiana
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/13-14; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/19). Tested: Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) and Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-08).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 3/18 2/17
D. Coats 54% 49% 46%
B. Ellsworth 33 34 32
Other 5 6 7
Undec 9 12 15

-              Now 3/18 2/17
J. Hostettler 50% 50% 46%
B. Ellsworth 33 32 27
Other 5 4 7
Undec 12 15 19

-              Now 3/18 2/17
M. Stutzman 41% 41% 40%
B. Ellsworth 36 34 30
Other 7 6 9
Undec 16 18 21

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     3/18    2/17    1/24
D. Coats 61%/21% 53%/30% 54%/27% n/a
J. Hostettler 47 /30 51 /26 48 /22 44%/27%
B. Ellsworth 40 /37 43 /33 35 /29 n/a
M. Stutzman 37 /30 37 /24 35 /25 31 /26

Oregon
A KATU-TV poll; conducted 4/9-11 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/14).

Wyden As Sen.
-           Now 3/14 2/14 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19
Approve 51% 49% 50% 53% 53% 51% 55% 56% 53%
Disapprove 35 41 37 40 40 40 32 35 34

Washington
A KATU-TV/KING-TV poll; conducted 4/9-11 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/14).

Murray As Sen.
-           Now 3/14 2/14 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19
Approve 46% 42% 43% 55% 52% 47% 48% 47% 50%
Disapprove 48 45 50 39 40 45 41 43 45

Monday, April 19, 2010

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/13; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/16).

Brewer As Gov.
-           Now 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24 7/21 5/6
Approve 48% 41% 37% 39% 37% 48% 51%
Disapprove 51 55 60 57 57 48 45

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/13; surveyed 510 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 4/16). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer, Treas. Dean Martin, NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills and ex-state GOP Chair John Munger.

Primary Election Matchup
-          Now 3/16
J. Brewer 26% 20%
B. Mills 18 19
J. Munger 14 10
D. Martin 12 21
Other 6 7
Undec 24 23

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     3/16    11/18
J. Brewer 49%/41% 52%/44% 54%/40%
B. Mills 40 /19 43 /12 n/a
D. Martin 37 /21 54 /14 60 /10
J. Munger 18 /23 37 /26 28 /22

Florida
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 4/8-13; surveyed 1,250 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.8%. Subsample of 497 GOPers; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/19). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R), state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom 1/24 10/18
B. McCollum 56% 58% 53% 44% 43%
P. Dockery 7 7 6 6 7
Other 2 3 2 1 1
Not vote 2 2 1 1 2
Undec 34 29 38 47 47

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24
A. Sink 37% 69% 9% 29% 36% 37% 35%
P. Dockery 28 6 58 26 31 25 29
Other 1 -- 1 2 2 1 1
Not vote 2 1 2 2 2 2 3
Undec 32 24 29 40 28 36 32

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/18 8/17 6/7
B. McCollum 40% 7% 83% 37% 43% 36% 41% 36% 38% 34%
A. Sink 36 73 5 28 35 38 31 32 34 38
Other 1 -- -- 4 1 1 -- 2 1 1
Not vote 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2
Undec 21 18 10 29 19 23 25 27 25 25

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/24    10/18
B. McCollum 38%/18% 24%/32% 61%/ 6% 36%/16% 35%/15% 34%/14%
A. Sink 22 /15 34 / 5 11 /25 21 /17 24 / 8 23 / 8
P. Dockery 9 / 5 9 / 4 10 / 7 8 / 4 8 / 6 5 / 3

McCollum As AG
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/18 8/17 6/7 4/09
Approve 51% 36% 71% 49% 52% 50% 56% 53% 53% 51% 48%
Disapprove 25 41 9 23 26 24 20 19 16 16 18

Sink As CFO
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/18 8/17 6/7 4/09
Approve 39% 52% 29% 36% 41% 37% 39% 38% 37% 39% 33%
Disapprove 26 18 34 25 26 25 22 23 21 17 22

McCollum And AGs From Several States Have Said They Will Sue To Block The Recently Passed Health Care Overhaul Plan. Do You Think Filing A Lawsuit To Stop The Plan From Taking Effect Is A Good/Bad Idea?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Good idea 40% 9% 77% 39% 43% 36%
Bad idea 54 88 17 53 52 56

Does McCollum's Decision To File A Lawsuit To Stop The Health Care Overhaul Plan From Taking Effect Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Him For GOV In Nov., Or Doesn't It Make A Difference?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 28% 5% 57% 27% 30% 27%
Less likely 38 65 5 41 36 40
No difference 31 29 34 30 32 31

New York
A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 4/12-15; surveyed 806 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 4/19).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom 3/18
R. Lazio 29% 37% 22% 45%
S. Levy 15 17 14 16
C. Paladino 13 11 14 n/a
Undec 43 36 50 40

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind 3/18 3/7 2/19 1/14 12/9 11/12
A. Cuomo 61% 81% 28% 54% 59% 63% 63% 66% 68% 67%
R. Lazio 24 9 54 23 21 25 26 24 22 22
Others n/a n/a n/a n/a 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 16 10 17 23 17 11 11 10 10 11

-            All Dem GOP Ind 3/18
A. Cuomo 58% 75% 31% 52% 63%
S. Levy 23 12 46 23 16
Others n/a n/a n/a n/a 4
Undec 19 13 22 26 17

-            All Dem GOP Ind
A. Cuomo 64% 81% 37% 58%
C. Paladino 19 9 41 21
Undec 16 10 22 21

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/18    3/7
A. Cuomo 66%/18% 72%/13% 57%/26% 62%/22% 63%/22% 63%/25%
R. Lazio 29 /25 26 /29 40 /14 21 /28 29 /27 30 /29
S. Levy 21 /16 24 /17 22 /15 18 /15 16 /16 n/a
C. Paladino 11 /13 13 /13 13 /12 6 /16 n/a n/a

Would You Prefer To See Cuomo Run For Reelection As AG Or For GOV?
-              All Dem GOP Ind 3/18 3/7 2/19 1/14 12/9 11/12
For GOV 53% 62% 41% 49% 55% 58% 51% 53% 50% 52%
Reelect as AG 31 22 42 34 27 29 33 30 31 28

Should Cuomo Publicly Declare Now Whether He's Running For AG Or For GOV, Or Does He Have Time To Wait Several Months Before Publicly Announcing?
-              All Dem GOP Ind 3/18 3/7 2/19 1/14 12/9 11/12
Declare now 49% 50% 52% 46% 44% 38% 41% 37% 35% 33%
Time to wait 36 37 31 38 44 52 43 49 51 52

When Thinking About Cuomo, Would You Consider Him Too Aggressive/Not Aggressive Enough, Or Would You Say He Has Just About The Right Level Of Aggressiveness?
-                              All Dem GOP Ind
Too aggressive 8% 8% 11% 6%
Not aggressive enough 16 13 20 21
Right level of aggressiveness 64 69 59 59

Texas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/14; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/19). Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 3/3 2/1 1/17
R. Perry 48% 49% 48% 50%
B. White 44 43 39 40
Other 2 3 5 4
Undec 6 6 8 6

Perry As Gov.
-           Now 3/3 2/1 1/17
Approve 59% 54% 50% 53%
Disapprove 40 44 48 46

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/3     2/1     1/17
R. Perry 59%/37% 54%/46% 54%/44% 55%/42%
B. White 54 /36 54 /34 46 /38 49 /35
 
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