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Monday, April 19, 2010

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/13; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/16).

Brewer As Gov.
-           Now 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24 7/21 5/6
Approve 48% 41% 37% 39% 37% 48% 51%
Disapprove 51 55 60 57 57 48 45

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/13; surveyed 510 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 4/16). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer, Treas. Dean Martin, NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills and ex-state GOP Chair John Munger.

Primary Election Matchup
-          Now 3/16
J. Brewer 26% 20%
B. Mills 18 19
J. Munger 14 10
D. Martin 12 21
Other 6 7
Undec 24 23

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     3/16    11/18
J. Brewer 49%/41% 52%/44% 54%/40%
B. Mills 40 /19 43 /12 n/a
D. Martin 37 /21 54 /14 60 /10
J. Munger 18 /23 37 /26 28 /22

Florida
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 4/8-13; surveyed 1,250 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.8%. Subsample of 497 GOPers; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/19). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R), state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom 1/24 10/18
B. McCollum 56% 58% 53% 44% 43%
P. Dockery 7 7 6 6 7
Other 2 3 2 1 1
Not vote 2 2 1 1 2
Undec 34 29 38 47 47

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24
A. Sink 37% 69% 9% 29% 36% 37% 35%
P. Dockery 28 6 58 26 31 25 29
Other 1 -- 1 2 2 1 1
Not vote 2 1 2 2 2 2 3
Undec 32 24 29 40 28 36 32

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/18 8/17 6/7
B. McCollum 40% 7% 83% 37% 43% 36% 41% 36% 38% 34%
A. Sink 36 73 5 28 35 38 31 32 34 38
Other 1 -- -- 4 1 1 -- 2 1 1
Not vote 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2
Undec 21 18 10 29 19 23 25 27 25 25

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/24    10/18
B. McCollum 38%/18% 24%/32% 61%/ 6% 36%/16% 35%/15% 34%/14%
A. Sink 22 /15 34 / 5 11 /25 21 /17 24 / 8 23 / 8
P. Dockery 9 / 5 9 / 4 10 / 7 8 / 4 8 / 6 5 / 3

McCollum As AG
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/18 8/17 6/7 4/09
Approve 51% 36% 71% 49% 52% 50% 56% 53% 53% 51% 48%
Disapprove 25 41 9 23 26 24 20 19 16 16 18

Sink As CFO
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/18 8/17 6/7 4/09
Approve 39% 52% 29% 36% 41% 37% 39% 38% 37% 39% 33%
Disapprove 26 18 34 25 26 25 22 23 21 17 22

McCollum And AGs From Several States Have Said They Will Sue To Block The Recently Passed Health Care Overhaul Plan. Do You Think Filing A Lawsuit To Stop The Plan From Taking Effect Is A Good/Bad Idea?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Good idea 40% 9% 77% 39% 43% 36%
Bad idea 54 88 17 53 52 56

Does McCollum's Decision To File A Lawsuit To Stop The Health Care Overhaul Plan From Taking Effect Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Him For GOV In Nov., Or Doesn't It Make A Difference?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 28% 5% 57% 27% 30% 27%
Less likely 38 65 5 41 36 40
No difference 31 29 34 30 32 31

New York
A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 4/12-15; surveyed 806 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 4/19).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom 3/18
R. Lazio 29% 37% 22% 45%
S. Levy 15 17 14 16
C. Paladino 13 11 14 n/a
Undec 43 36 50 40

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind 3/18 3/7 2/19 1/14 12/9 11/12
A. Cuomo 61% 81% 28% 54% 59% 63% 63% 66% 68% 67%
R. Lazio 24 9 54 23 21 25 26 24 22 22
Others n/a n/a n/a n/a 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 16 10 17 23 17 11 11 10 10 11

-            All Dem GOP Ind 3/18
A. Cuomo 58% 75% 31% 52% 63%
S. Levy 23 12 46 23 16
Others n/a n/a n/a n/a 4
Undec 19 13 22 26 17

-            All Dem GOP Ind
A. Cuomo 64% 81% 37% 58%
C. Paladino 19 9 41 21
Undec 16 10 22 21

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/18    3/7
A. Cuomo 66%/18% 72%/13% 57%/26% 62%/22% 63%/22% 63%/25%
R. Lazio 29 /25 26 /29 40 /14 21 /28 29 /27 30 /29
S. Levy 21 /16 24 /17 22 /15 18 /15 16 /16 n/a
C. Paladino 11 /13 13 /13 13 /12 6 /16 n/a n/a

Would You Prefer To See Cuomo Run For Reelection As AG Or For GOV?
-              All Dem GOP Ind 3/18 3/7 2/19 1/14 12/9 11/12
For GOV 53% 62% 41% 49% 55% 58% 51% 53% 50% 52%
Reelect as AG 31 22 42 34 27 29 33 30 31 28

Should Cuomo Publicly Declare Now Whether He's Running For AG Or For GOV, Or Does He Have Time To Wait Several Months Before Publicly Announcing?
-              All Dem GOP Ind 3/18 3/7 2/19 1/14 12/9 11/12
Declare now 49% 50% 52% 46% 44% 38% 41% 37% 35% 33%
Time to wait 36 37 31 38 44 52 43 49 51 52

When Thinking About Cuomo, Would You Consider Him Too Aggressive/Not Aggressive Enough, Or Would You Say He Has Just About The Right Level Of Aggressiveness?
-                              All Dem GOP Ind
Too aggressive 8% 8% 11% 6%
Not aggressive enough 16 13 20 21
Right level of aggressiveness 64 69 59 59

Texas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/14; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/19). Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 3/3 2/1 1/17
R. Perry 48% 49% 48% 50%
B. White 44 43 39 40
Other 2 3 5 4
Undec 6 6 8 6

Perry As Gov.
-           Now 3/3 2/1 1/17
Approve 59% 54% 50% 53%
Disapprove 40 44 48 46

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/3     2/1     1/17
R. Perry 59%/37% 54%/46% 54%/44% 55%/42%
B. White 54 /36 54 /34 46 /38 49 /35

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