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Thursday, July 31, 2008

Thursday 7/31

PRESIDENTIAL

CALIFORNIA

A Public Policy Institute of CA poll; conducted 7/8-22; surveyed 2,504 adults; margin of error +/- 2.0%. Subsample of 1,401 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6% (release, 7/31).

WH '08 General Election Matchup (LVs)

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His 5/18 3/18

B. Obama 50% 79% 13% 57% 48% 51% 43% 65% 54% 49%

J. McCain 35 9 72 21 36 34 41 22 37 40

Other 2 1 2 5 4 1 3 2 2 4

Undec 13 11 13 17 12 14 13 11 7 7

Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Who Do You Trust More To Handle Global Warming And Other Enviro Issues/Energy Policy? (LVs)

-            GlobalWarming/Enviro    EnergyPolicy

- All Dem GOP Ind His All Dem GOP Ind His

B. Obama 52% 80% 19% 56% 64% 51% 79% 16% 54% 64%

J. McCain 28 8 55 17 19 33 9 65 27 20

Both 1 -- 2 1 2 1 -- 1 -- 1

Neither 10 4 13 18 6 7 4 8 11 6

Undec 9 8 11 8 9 8 8 10 8 9

Bush As POTUS

-            All Dem GOP Ind LVs

Approve 26% 9% 57% 18% 28%

Disapprove 69 88 38 78 69

Bush Handling U.S. Enviro Issues

-            All Dem GOP Ind LVs

Approve 24% 9% 48% 19% 25%

Disapprove 66 86 38 73 66

FLORIDA

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 7/23-29; surveyed 1,248 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 7/31). Note: Trends 5/22 and earlier are among RVs.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-         All  GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 6/16 5/22 5/1

B. Obama 46% 9% 86% 41% 45% 47% 39% 89% 56% 47% 41% 43%

J. McCain 44 88 9 46 47 42 53 2 36 43 45 44

Other 2 -- 1 4 2 1 1 -- 3 2 2 1

Not vote -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4 4

Undec 7 3 4 10 6 9 7 8 4 8 8 8

Is Your Mind Made Up, Or Do You Think You Might Change Your Mind Before The Election?

-                All         ObamaVoters McCainVoters

- Now 6/16 Now 6/16 Now 6/16

Mind made up 80% 79% 78% 79% 83% 79%

Might change 18 19 20 19 16 19

Fav/Unfav

-            All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom

J. McCain 51%/30% 83%/ 8% 24%/51% 54%/27% 54%/30% 49%/29%

B. Obama 50 /33 20 /65 78 / 8 46 /32 46 /38 54 /29

C. McCain 29 /10 47 / 3 15 /18 30 / 9 26 / 9 32 /11

M. Obama 29 /27 12 /48 47 / 8 28 /28 25 /31 33 /23

OHIO

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 7/23-29; surveyed 1,229 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 7/31). Note: Trends 5/22 and earlier are among RVs.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-            All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 6/16 5/22 5/1

B. Obama 46% 8% 84% 43% 46% 47% 42% 89% 48% 40% 42%

J. McCain 44 89 11 41 45 44 49 2 42 44 43

Other 1 -- 1 2 1 1 1 -- 2 2 2

Not vote -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 5 5

Undec 8 3 5 14 8 8 8 9 7 9 8

Is Your Mind Made Up, Or Do You Think You Might Change Your Mind Before The Election?

-                All         ObamaVoters McCainVoters

- Now 6/16 Now 6/16 Now 6/16

Mind made up 79% 77% 77% 81% 80% 73%

Might change 21 21 22 18 19 24

Fav/Unfav

-            All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom

J. McCain 52%/32% 84%/ 5% 26%/57% 54%/28% 53%/33% 52%/31%

B. Obama 50 /34 20 /65 78 /12 50 /29 50 /37 51 /32

M. Obama 29 /25 13 /42 48 / 8 22 /27 24 /27 33 /23

C. McCain 26 / 9 43 / 2 15 /16 22 / 9 23 / 9 28 /10

PENNSYLVANIA

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 7/23-29; surveyed 1,317 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.7% (release, 7/31). Note: Trends 5/22 and earlier are among RVs.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-            All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 6/16 5/22 5/1

B. Obama 49% 10% 80% 49% 48% 50% 45% 91% 52% 46% 47%

J. McCain 42 85 14 38 44 39 46 1 40 40 38

Other 1 -- -- 2 1 1 1 -- 2 2 2

Not vote -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 5 4

Undec 8 5 6 11 7 9 8 8 7 8 9

Is Your Mind Made Up, Or Do You Think You Might Change Your Mind Before The Election?

-                All         ObamaVoters McCainVoters

- Now 6/16 Now 6/16 Now 6/16

Mind made up 77% 75% 78% 75% 75% 74%

Might change 21 24 19 24 24 24

Fav/Unfav

-            All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom

B. Obama 54%/27% 27%/57% 76%/ 9% 53%/24% 52%/32% 56%/23%

J. McCain 54 /28 86 / 6 30 /47 56 /27 55 /30 53 /27

M. Obama 33 /21 17 /37 50 / 9 27 /23 29 /22 36 /19

C. McCain 25 / 9 37 / 2 18 /13 24 /10 26 / 9 24 / 9

WASHINGTON

A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 7/25-27; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/30).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama 48%

J. McCain 37

Undec 15

HOUSE

NV-03

An Anzalone Liszt Research (D) poll; conducted 7/23-28 for '06 GOV nominee/state Sen. Dina Titus (D); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 7/31). Tested: Titus and Rep. Jon Porter (R).

General Election Matchups

D. Titus 50%

J. Porter 43

D. Titus 43%

J. Porter 39

Other 10

Undec 7

Generic Dem 43%

Generic GOPer 43

Porter As Rep.

Positive 50%

Negative 41

Titus As State Sen.

Positive 56%

Negative 32

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Wednesday 7/30

NATIONAL

Conducted 7/27-29; surveyed 1,041 adults; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 7/30).

Do You Favor/Oppose Increased Drilling For Oil And Natural Gas Offshore In U.S. Waters?

- Now 6/29

Favor 69% 73%

Oppose 30 27

If The Fed. Gov't Allowed Increased Offshore Drilling In U.S. Waters, Would It Reduce The Price Of Gasoline In The Next Year?

Yes 51%

No 49

SENATE

OKLAHOMA

Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) won re-nomination 7/29, defeating '96 OK-03 candidate/'00-'06 OK-01 candidate/librarian Evelyn Rogers (R), atty Ted Ryals (R), and Baptist preacher Dennis Lopez (R). On the Dem side, state Sen. Andrew Rice (D) defeated '02/'04 candidate/'06 LG candidate/ret. teacher Jim Rogers (D). Results, with 100% reporting (AP, 7/30):

OK SEN GOP Primary OK SEN Dem Primary

Votes   %age                    Votes  %age

Inhofe 116,349 84.18% Rice 113,780 59.65%

Rogers 10,768 7.79 Rogers 76,973 40.35

Ryals 7,305 5.29

Lopez 3,799 2.75

TOTAL: 138,221 TOTAL: 190,753

HOUSE

IL-13

An American Viewpoint (R) poll; conducted 6/16-17 for Rep. Judy Biggert (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 7/30). Tested: Biggert and businessman Scott Harper (D).

General Election Matchup

J. Biggert 55%

S. Harper 30

Undec 13

Re-Elect Biggert

Re-elect 55%

Someone else 28

Fav/Unfav

J. Biggert 67%/18%

Biggert As Rep.

Approve 67%

Disapprove 19

MI-13

A EPIC-MRA poll; conducted 7/26-27; surveyed 400 Dem LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Trowbridge, Detroit News, 7/29). Tested: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D), ex-state Rep. Mary Waters (D) and state Sen. Martha Scott (D).

Primary Election Matchup

C. Cheeks Kilpatrick 33%

M. Waters 29

M. Scott 24

Name ID

C. Cheeks Kilpatrick 98%

M. Scott 84

M. Waters 78

OK-01

Rep. John Sullivan (R) defeated Fran Mo-ghaddam (R) in the GOP primary, and will face echnology consultant Georgianna Oliver (D) in the fall. Oliver defeated Mark Manley (D) in the Dem primary. Results with 100% of the precincts reporting (AP, 7/30).

OK 01 GOP Primary OK 01 Dem Primary

votes      %age               votes     %age

Sullivan 33,562 92% Oliver 11,115 56%

Mo-ghaddam 3,025 8 Manley 8,841 44

OK-02

Rep. Dan Boren (D) defeated Kevin Coleman (D) last p.m., and will face '04/'06 candidate Raymond Wickson (R) in the fall. Results with 100% of the precincts reporting (AP, 7/30).

OK 02 Dem Primary

votes      %age

Boren 66,030 85%

Coleman 11,437 15

OK-05

'04 nominee/'06 candidate/teacher Bert Smith (D) defeated Steven Perry (D) in last p.m.'s primary, and will face Rep. Mary Fallin (R) in the general. Results with 100% of the precincts reporting (AP, 7/30).

OK 05 Dem Primary

votes      %age

Perry 12,897 59%

Smith 9,002 41

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Tuesday 7/29

HOUSE
AK-AL
A Hays Research Group poll; conducted 7/24-25; surveyed 404 adults; margin of error +/- 4.9%. Subsample of 175 GOPers; margin of error +/- 7.4% (release, 7/29). Tested: '06 LG nominee/ex-state House Min. Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D), Rep. Don Young (R) and LG Sean Parnell (R).
Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
S. Parnell 46%
D. Young 42
Undec/refused 12

General Election Matchup
E. Berkowitz 33%
S. Parnell 30
Undec/refused 37

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     5/7     3/12   9/18     6/07
S. Palin 80%/16% 86%/ 9% 85%/12% 82%/ 6% 81%/ 5%
D. Young 41 /55 37 /59 40 /55 33 /46 40 /41


MI-07
A Meyers Research & Strategic Services (D) poll; conducted 5/8-15 for state Senate Min. Leader Mark Schauer (D); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/29). Tested: Schauer and Rep. Tim Walberg (R).
General Election Matchup
T. Walberg 40%
M. Schauer 37

WH '08 General Election Matchup
B. Obama 42%
J. McCain 42

Re-Elect Walberg
Re-elect 35%
Someone else 33

Name ID
T. Walberg 74%
M. Schauer 42

Pos./Neg.
T. Walberg 36%/23%
M. Schauer 23 / 9

Monday 7/28

PRESIDENTIAL
MAINE
A Critical Insights poll; conducted 6/1-27; surveyed 602 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/25). Party ID Breakdown: 42%D, 27%R, 23%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-            All CD1 CD2
B. Obama 51% 54% 47%
J. McCain 31 27 36
Undec 16 17 15


Fav/Unfav
-          All     Dem     Ind     GOP    CD1     CD2
G. Bush 15%/71% 5%/89% 9%/77% 38%/42% 15%/73% 16%/68%


SOUTH CAROLINA
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 7/22-23 for Daily Kos; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 7/25). Party ID Breakdown: 43%R, 36%D, 21%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
-           All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
J. McCain 53% 57% 49% 16% 84% 52% 78% 4%
B. Obama 40 38 42 80 6 39 15 88
Undec 7 5 9 4 10 9 7 8


Bush As POTUS
-           All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
Approve 39% 42% 36% 8% 67% 36%
Disapprove 60 57 63 91 32 63


SENATE
NEW HAMPSHIRE
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
General Election Match Up
Shaheen 50%
Sununu 45%

HOUSE
MI-07
A National Research (R) poll; conducted 7/8-9 for Rep. Tim Walberg (R); surveyed 300 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 7/24). Tested: Walberg and state Senate Min. Leader Mark Schauer (D).
General Election Matchup
T. Walberg 47%
M. Schauer 31

WH '08 General Election Matchup
J. McCain 48%
B. Obama 37

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Thurs 7/24

PRESIDENTIAL

COLORADO

A Quinnipiac Univ./Wall Street Journal/washingtonpost.com poll; conducted 7/14-22; surveyed 1,425 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6% (release, 7/24).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Union 6/26
J. McCain 46% 87% 7% 39% 55% 39% 51% 29% 40% 44%
B. Obama 44 7 86 47 37 50 41 57 50 49
Other 3 2 1 4 3 2 2 4 4 2
Undec 7 5 5 10 5 9 6 10 6 5


Fav/Unfav
-           All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
J. McCain 54%/30% 78%/12% 29%/52% 53%/29% 60%/28% 49%/32%
B. Obama 51 /35 21 /66 83 / 7 57 /26 45 /41 57 /29
M. Obama 30 /26 11 /47 53 / 6 31 /21 24 /31 36 /21
C. McCain 29 / 9 43 / 3 19 /16 24 / 8 30 / 7 29 /10


Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Which Candidate Has The Best Program For Helping To Solve The Energy Crisis And Making The U.S. Less Dependent On Foreign Oil?

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Union
B. Obama 33% 7% 62% 36% 28% 38% 32% 40% 37%
J. McCain 33 60 6 28 40 26 35 26 25
Undec 34 34 32 35 32 35 34 34 38


Would You Rather The Next POTUS Focus On Developing New Sources Of Oil/Natural Gas/Nuclear Power That Could Be A Risk To The Enviro, Or Focus More On Wind/Solar/Biofuels That Could Take Longer To Produce Significant Amounts Of Energy?

-                   All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Union
Wind/solar/bio 55% 36% 76% 58% 45% 65% 55% 56% 63%
Oil/gas/nuclear 36 55 18 32 47 26 37 34 33


Would You Rather The Next POTUS Focus More On Development Of New Sources Of Oil/Natural Gas, Or Focus More On Conserving Energy?

-               All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Union
Conserving 49% 34% 64% 53% 43% 55% 49% 55% 57%
Oil/gas 44 60 32 39 49 39 44 40 39


Is A Candidate's Position On Energy Policy Or The War In Iraq More Important To Your WH '08 Choice?

-               All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Union
Energy policy 50% 46% 51% 54% 53% 47% 52% 38% 50%
War in Iraq 39 42 39 37 38 39 37 51 41



MICHIGAN

A Quinnipiac Univ./Wall Street Journal/washingtonpost.com poll; conducted 7/14-22; surveyed 1,684 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.4% (release, 7/24).
WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Union 6/26
B. Obama 46% 8% 84% 41% 42% 50% 40% 90% 52% 48%
J. McCain 42 85 9 44 47 38 48 4 36 42
Other 2 1 1 4 4 1 2 -- 3 1
Undec 9 6 6 11 7 11 10 7 9 8


Fav/Unfav

-           All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
B. Obama 54%/29% 21%/60% 79%/ 7% 55%/28% 50%/35% 58%/24%
J. McCain 53 /30 82 / 9 27 /50 59 /26 58 /29 49 /30
M. Obama 33 /17 13 /31 50 / 5 33 /18 29 /18 36 /16
C. McCain 24 / 9 37 / 1 18 /14 24 /10 26 / 9 23 / 9


Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Which Candidate Has The Best Program For Helping To Solve The Energy Crisis And Making The U.S. Less Dependent On Foreign Oil?

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Union
B. Obama 35% 6% 60% 33% 32% 37% 30% 66% 41%
J. McCain 28 57 8 29 37 21 32 3 26
Undec 37 37 32 38 31 42 38 31 33


Would You Rather The Next POTUS Focus On Developing New Sources Of Oil/Natural Gas/Nuclear Power That Could Be A Risk To The Enviro, Or Focus More On Wind/Solar/Biofuels That Could Take Longer To Produce Significant Amounts Of Energy?


- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Union
Wind/solar/bio 58% 40% 70% 60% 52% 64% 59% 54% 66%
Oil/gas/nuclear 33 51 22 33 41 27 33 33 27


Would You Rather The Next POTUS Focus More On Development Of New Sources Of Oil/Natural Gas, Or Focus More On Conserving Energy?

-               All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Union
Conserving 49% 35% 56% 52% 48% 49% 49% 53% 47%
Oil/gas 44 58 38 41 45 43 44 39 48


Is A Candidate's Position On Energy Policy Or The War In Iraq More Important To Your WH '08 Choice?

-               All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Union
Energy policy 50% 48% 54% 49% 55% 46% 51% 49% 52%
War in Iraq 40 43 39 40 36 44 39 45 40


MINNESOTA

A Quinnipiac Univ./Wall Street Journal/washingtonpost.com poll; conducted 7/14-22; surveyed 1,261 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 7/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union 6/26
B. Obama 46% 5% 86% 40% 42% 51% 45% 54% 54%
J. McCain 44 90 7 48 49 38 45 36 37
Other 2 1 -- 3 3 -- 2 2 1
Undec 8 4 6 9 6 10 8 8 8


Fav/Unfav

-           All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
B. Obama 55%/26% 30%/49% 85%/ 6% 48%/29% 53%/30% 58%/23%
J. McCain 51 /27 79 / 6 30 /51 54 /21 57 /25 45 /30
M. Obama 32 /17 15 /32 52 / 5 30 /18 26 /22 39 /13
C. McCain 21 / 8 32 / 2 14 /15 21 / 8 19 / 9 22 / 8


Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Which Candidate Has The Best Program For Helping To Solve The Energy Crisis And Making The U.S. Less Dependent On Foreign Oil?

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union
B. Obama 34% 7% 58% 31% 32% 35% 33% 39%
J. McCain 26 48 5 30 32 20 27 26
Undec 40 45 36 39 36 45 41 35


Would You Rather The Next POTUS Focus On Developing New Sources Of Oil/Natural Gas/Nuclear Power That Could Be A Risk To The Enviro, Or Focus More On Wind/Solar/Biofuels That Could Take Longer To Produce Significant Amounts Of Energy?

-                   All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union
Wind/solar/bio 61% 39% 77% 61% 54% 68% 61% 62%
Oil/gas/nuclear 31 55 17 29 37 26 31 31


Would You Rather The Next POTUS Focus More On Development Of New Sources Of Oil/Natural Gas, Or Focus More On Conserving Energy?

-               All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union
Conserving 52% 35% 66% 54% 48% 57% 53% 59%
Oil/gas 42 59 28 40 47 36 41 35


Is A Candidate's Position On Energy Policy Or The War In Iraq More Important To Your WH '08 Choice?

-               All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union
Energy policy 49% 53% 42% 52% 51% 46% 49% 45%
War in Iraq 41 38 48 38 39 42 41 45


This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 22, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

General Election Matchup
McCain 37%
Obama 49

NEW HAMPSHIRE

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

General Election Matchup
McCain 41%
Obama 47

WISCONSIN

A Quinnipiac Univ./Wall Street Journal/washingtonpost.com poll; conducted 7/14-22; surveyed 1,094 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 7/24).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union 6/26
B. Obama 50% 12% 86% 47% 43% 56% 48% 55% 52%
J. McCain 39 82 6 38 49 31 42 34 39
Other 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 -- 1
Undec 9 5 7 12 7 11 9 10 8


Fav/Unfav

-           All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
B. Obama 55%/28% 28%/58% 80%/ 5% 54%/28% 53%/33% 57%/24%
J. McCain 52 /28 83 / 8 24 /50 56 /24 62 /25 44 /31
M. Obama 31 /14 12 /30 49 / 4 30 /13 25 /15 37 /13
C. McCain 21 / 9 32 / 2 13 /18 21 / 6 21 / 8 20 / 9


Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Which Candidate Has The Best Program For Helping To Solve The Energy Crisis And Making The U.S. Less Dependent On Foreign Oil?

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union
B. Obama 34% 9% 64% 30% 32% 37% 33% 39%
J. McCain 29 62 6 25 39 21 30 26
Undec 37 28 30 45 30 42 37 36


Would You Rather The Next POTUS Focus On Developing New Sources Of Oil/Natural Gas/Nuclear Power That Could Be A Risk To The Enviro, Or Focus More On Wind/Solar/Biofuels That Could Take Longer To Produce Significant Amounts Of Energy?

-                   All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union
Wind/solar/bio 62% 49% 77% 60% 51% 73% 61% 62%
Oil/gas/nuclear 32 47 18 33 44 21 32 34


Would You Rather The Next POTUS Focus More On Development Of New Sources Of Oil/Natural Gas, Or Focus More On Conserving Energy?

-               All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union
Conserving 54% 39% 66% 56% 52% 56% 54% 57%
Oil/gas 40 53 29 38 44 35 39 37


Is A Candidate's Position On Energy Policy Or The War In Iraq More Important To Your WH '08 Choice?

-               All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union
Energy policy 52% 52% 46% 57% 54% 50% 53% 53%
War in Iraq 41 43 47 36 41 41 41 40


SENATE

COLORADO

A Quinnipiac Univ./Wall Street Journal/washingtonpost.com poll; conducted 7/14-22; surveyed 1,425 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6% (release, 7/24). Tested: Rep. Mark Udall (D-02) and '04 candidate/CO Bd. of Ed. member/ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R).

General Election Matchup

-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Union 6/26
M. Udall 44% 10% 83% 46% 37% 50% 41% 61% 49% 48%
B. Schaffer 44 82 7 38 54 35 48 32 38 38
Other 1 -- -- 1 1 -- 1 -- 1 1
Undec 11 8 9 15 8 15 11 7 11 12


MINNESOTA

A Quinnipiac Univ./Wall Street Journal/washingtonpost.com poll; conducted 7/14-22; surveyed 1,261 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 7/24). Tested: Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and entertainer Al Franken (D).

General Election Matchup
-           All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Union 6/26
N. Coleman 52% 94% 19% 55% 58% 48% 54% 44% 51%
A. Franken 38 3 73 32 35 41 37 47 41
Other 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
Undec 8 2 7 11 5 10 7 8 6


This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 22, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

General Election Matchup
N. Coleman 44%
A. Franken 43

NEW JERSEY

A Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey Poll; conducted 7/17-21; surveyed 874 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 698 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 7/24). Tested: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) and '96 nominee/ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer (R).
General Election Matchup

-          All LVs
F. Lautenberg 44% 45%
D. Zimmer 34 37
Other 7 6
Not vote 1 1
Undec 13 11


Fav/Unfav

-               All     Dem     Ind     GOP     4/08
F. Lautenberg 34%/27% 54%/ 9% 26%/33% 16%/51% 43%/30%
D. Zimmer 18 /11 12 /13 20 /10 29 / 7 9 /10


Lautenberg As Sen.

-           All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ 4/08
Approve 45% 66% 37% 22% 43% 47% 42% 44% 49% 48%
Disapprove 33 14 37 59 38 28 29 32 36 31


HOUSE

MD-01

An Arthur Finkelstein & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 7/15 for state Sen. Andy Harris (R); surveyed 300 RVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (Kurtz, Roll Call, 7/24). Tested: Harris and Queen Anne's Co. State's Atty Frank Kratovil (D).

General Election Matchup
A. Harris 44%
F. Kratovil 28
Undec 27

Fav/Unfav
A. Harris 37%/12%
F. Kratovil 14 /14

MO-09

A Momentum Analysis (D) poll; conducted 6/2-4 for state Rep. Judy Baker (D); surveyed 400 Dem LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Murray, Roll Call, 7/24). Tested: Baker, ex-state House Speaker Steve Gaw (D), ex-state Sen. Ken Jacob (D) and Marion Co. commis. Lyndon Bode (D).

Primary Election Matchup
J. Baker 20%
S. Gaw 14
K. Jacob 9
L. Bode 6

Weds 7/23

PRESIDENTIAL
COLORADO
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
General Election Matchup
McCain 42%
Obama 49

FLORIDA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 22, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
General Election Matchup
McCain 45%
Obama 46

NEW JERSEY
A Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey Poll; conducted 7/17-21; surveyed 874 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 698 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 7/23). Party ID Breakdown (RVs): 42%D, 25%R, 33%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All LVs 4/28
B. Obama 48% 50% 56%
J. McCain 34 36 32
Other 3 2 1
Neither -- -- 4
Undec 14 12 7

Fav/Unfav
- All LVs Dem Ind GOP 4/28
B. Obama 56%/19% 59%/21% 73%/ 8% 53%/20% 33%/39% 58%/27%
J. McCain 48 /25 51 /27 30 /41 49 /20 83 / 9 39 /45


SENATE
COLORADO
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
General Election Matchup
Bob Schaffer 43%
Mark Udall 47

NEW HAMPSHIRE
A Granite State Poll; conducted 7/11-20 by UNH; surveyed 475 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 7/23). Tested: ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Sen. John Sununu (R).
General Election Matchup
- All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 4/30 2/08 9/07 7/07
J. Shaheen 46% 84% 42% 11% 35% 56% 52% 55% 54% 54%
J. Sununu 42 9 26 82 53 32 40 37 38 38
Other 1 1 4 -- 1 2 1 1 1 1
Undec 10 7 27 7 11 10 7 7 7 7

Have You Decided Who To Vote For In The Sen. Election?
- All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom
Definitely decided 22% 24% 5% 24% 28% 17%
Leaning 6 9 2 6 6 6
Trying to decide 72 67 93 70 66 78

Fav/Unfav
- Now 4/30 2/08 9/07 7/07 4/07
J. Gregg 53%/23% 52%/27% 50%/25% 49%/26% 48%/27% 53%/23%
J. Shaheen 53 /31 56 /29 57 /23 56 /25 60 /24 na
J. Sununu 52 /33 48 /37 46 /35 40 /37 43 /35 49 /30



HOUSE
NH-01
A Granite State Poll; conducted 7/11-20 by UNH; surveyed 235 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.4% (release, 7/23). Tested: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D), ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) and ex-NH Commis. of Health/Human Services John Stephen (R).
General Election Matchups
- All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 4/30
J. Bradley 46% 8% 40% 84% 56% 36% 45%
C. Shea-Porter 40 80 26 6 34 46 39
Other 1 1 2 -- 1 1 2
Undec 14 11 31 9 10 17 13


- All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 4/30
C. Shea-Porter 42% 79% 25% 10% 36% 48% 43%
J. Stephen 36 3 30 71 48 24 35
Other 1 3 -- 1 2 1 2
Undec 21 15 45 17 14 27 20

Fav/Unfav
- Now Dem Ind GOP 4/30
J. Bradley 48%/27% 26%/49% 27%/42% 73%/ 2% 43%/23%
C. Shea-Porter 35 /32 66 / 8 25 /27 9 /59 39 /28
J. Stephen 19 /11 17 /16 18 / 7 22 / 9 19 / 9


NH-02
A Granite State Poll; conducted 7/11-20 by UNH; surveyed 240 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.3% (release, 7/23). Tested: Rep. Paul Hodes (D), state Sen. Bob Clegg (R) and radio host Jennifer Horn (R).
General Election Matchups
- All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 4/30
P. Hodes 43% 69% 40% 15% 37% 47% 52%
J. Horn 23 3 11 48 29 19 25
Other 2 1 -- 4 2 2 2
Undec 32 27 49 33 32 32 22


- All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 4/30
P. Hodes 44% 75% 36% 13% 34% 52% 51%
B. Clegg 25 4 17 50 32 19 24
Other 3 1 -- 4 2 3 2
Undec 29 20 47 33 32 27 23

Fav/Unfav
- Now Dem Ind GOP 4/30 2/08
P. Hodes 42%/16% 61%/ 8% 43%/ 7% 20%/28% 38%/18% 37%/18%
B. Clegg 14 /12 17 /13 14 /14 10 / 9 10 /12 na
J. Horn 9 / 4 6 / 4 3 / 7 13 / 4 7 / 2 na

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Tues 7/22

ENVIRONMENTAL
NATIONWIDE
This national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 20, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Is producing 100% of electricity from renewable energy and clean carbon-free sources in 10 years a realistic goal?
Yes 33%
No 46
Not Sure 21
Do you agree or disagree with Al Gore's views on the environment and energy issues?
Agree 41%
Disagree 35
Not Sure 24

PRESIDENTIAL
FLORIDA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 7/19-21; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/22). Party ID Breakdown: 45%D, 38%R, 17%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 6/17
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. McCain 47% 19% 83% 42% 53% 42% 44% 16% 75% 43% 46% 43%
B. Obama 45 73 9 50 41 48 49 77 18 47 48 49
Undec 8 na na na na na 7 na na na na na


GEORGIA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
General Election Matchup
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 39

MICHIGAN
A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV/WILX-TV/WJRT-TV poll; conducted 7/13-15 by EPIC-MRA; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/21).
WH '08 General Election Matchups
- Now 5/22
B. Obama 43% 40%
J. McCain 41 44
R. Nader 3 na
B. Barr 2 na
Undec 12 16
Fav/Unfav
- Now 5/22 4/9
J. McCain 58%/32% 48%/36% 59%/34%
B. Obama 51 /37 45 /41 55 /38


NEW HAMPSHIRE
A Granite State Poll; conducted 7/11-20 by UNH; surveyed 475 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 7/21). Party ID Breakdown: 26%R, 25%D, 40%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 4/30
- All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom
B. Obama 46% 82% 42% 12% 35% 55% 43% 78% 27% 9% 41% 45%
J. McCain 43 12 31 78 52 35 49 15 61 83 54 45
Other 3 1 6 4 3 3 1 2 -- 1 1 2
Undec 8 6 21 5 10 7 6 4 12 6 5 8

Fav/Unfav
- All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom
B. Obama 58%/31% 84%/ 8% 58%/29% 33%/56% 52%/37% 63%/25%
J. McCain 56 /31 34 /47 58 /28 81 /13 60 /29 53 /32


An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 7/19-21; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/22). Party ID Breakdown: 30%D, 29%R, 41%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 6/17
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Obama 47% 83% 10% 47% 41% 52% 51% 89% 10% 53% 48% 54%
J. McCain 45 13 85 40 50 41 39 5 74 38 47 32
Undec 8 na na na na na 10 na na na na na


NORTH CAROLINA
A Civitas Institute (R) poll; conducted 7/14-16 by Tel Opinion Research (R); surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/21).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 6/13
- All Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk All Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
J. McCain 43% 21% 74% 40% na na 45% 21% 80% 34% 54% 7%
B. Obama 40 63 11 39 28% 92% 41 63 7 53 31 86
B. Barr 2 na na na na na 2 1 3 1 2 --
Undec 15 na na na na na 12 15 9 12 13 7


OHIO
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
General Election Matchup
McCain (R) 46%
Obama (D) 40%

SENATE
GEORGIA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
General Election Matchup
Saxby Chambliss (R) 59%
Vernon Jones (D) 29
-
Saxby Chambliss (R) 51%
Jim Martin (D) 40

MICHIGAN
A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV/WILX-TV/WJRT-TV poll; conducted 7/13-16 by EPIC-MRA; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/21). Tested: Sen. Carl Levin (D) and state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R).
General Election Matchup
C. Levin 58%
J. Hoogendyk 32
Undec 10
Fav/Unfav
C. Levin 54%/29%
J. Granholm 49 /45
J. Hoogendyk 5 / 2

NEW HAMPSHIRE
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 7/19-21; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/22). Tested: Sen. John Sununu (R) and ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D).
General Election Matchup
- All GOP Dem Ind 6/17 3/08 12/07 9/07 6/07 3/07
J. Shaheen 58% 26% 94% 55% 54% 47% 41% 46% 57% 44%
J. Sununu 36 70 2 37 40 33 52 41 29 34
Undec 6 6 4 8 6 20 7 13 14 22


NORTH CAROLINA
A Civitas Institute (R) poll; conducted 7/14-16 by Tel Opinion Research (R); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/21). Tested: Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R), state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) and contract postal worker Christopher Cole (L).
General Election Matchup
- Now 6/13 5/17
E. Dole 47% 48% 45%
K. Hagan 38 38 43
C. Cole 2 1 --
Undec 14 13 12


HOUSE
n/a

Monday, July 21, 2008

Mon 7/21/08

PRESIDENTIAL

ALASKA

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 7/14-16 for Daily Kos; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/18). Party ID Breakdown: 31%R, 20%D, 49%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-         All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 5/14
J. McCain 51% 54% 48% 10% 82% 48% 42% 56% 48% 58% 49%
B. Obama 41 39 43 86 8 43 50 34 47 33 42
Undec 8 7 9 4 10 9 8 10 5 9 9
Bush As POTUS
-           All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Approve 37% 40% 34% 5% 72% 28% 32% 40% 35% 41%
Disapprove 63 60 66 95 28 72 68 60 65 59

MAINE

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

General Election Matchup
McCain (R) 36%
Obama (D) 46

VIRGINIA

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 16, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

General Election Matchup
McCain (R) 44%
Obama (D) 44

SENATE

ALASKA

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 7/14-16 for Daily Kos; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/18). Tested: Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D).

General Election Matchup
-           All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 5/14
M. Begich 47% 43% 51% 83% 13% 53% 48%
T. Stevens 45 50 40 7 81 38 43
Undec 8 7 9 10 6 9 9
Fav/Unfav
-          All    Men     Wom     Dem     GOP     Ind
M. Begich 52%/27% 47%/33% 57%/21% 76%/13% 28%/46% 57%/21%
T. Stevens 36 /61 42 /56 30 /66 16 /83 59 /38 30 /66

MAINE

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

General Election Matchup
Susan Collins (R) 49%
Tom Allen (D) 42

VIRGINIA

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 16, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

General Election Matchup
Jim Gilmore (R) 34%
Mark Warner (D) 57

HOUSE

AK-AL

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 7/14-16 for Daily Kos; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 7/18). Tested: Rep. Don Young (R) and '06 LG nominee/ex-state House Min. Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D).

General Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 5/14
E. Berkowitz 51% 47% 55% 86% 18% 58% 50%
D. Young 40 45 35 6 71 34 40
Undec 9 8 10 8 11 8 10
Fav/Unfav
-           All    Men     Wom     Dem     GOP     Ind
E. Berkowitz 52%/29% 47%/35% 57%/23% 84%/12% 22%/45% 59%/25%
D. Young 37 /61 43 /56 31 /66 11 /88 62 /35 33 /65

AZ-08

A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll; conducted 6/18-22; surveyed 502 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (Brown, Politicker AZ, 7/19). Tested: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) and state Senate Pres. Tim Bee (R).

General Election Matchup
G. Giffords 59%
T. Bee 35

Name ID
G. Giffords 92%
Fav/Unfav
G. Giffords 57%/26%

Friday, July 18, 2008

Fri 7/18/08

PRESIDENTIAL

ARKANSAS
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
J. McCain 47%
B. Obama 37%


NEW JERSEY
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 7/11-13; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/18).

WH '08 General Election Matchup
B. Obama 47%
J. McCain 38
Undec 15


VIRGINIA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 16, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
B. Obama 44%
J. McCain 44%

SENATE

NEW JERSEY
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 7/11-13; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/18). Tested: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) and '96 nominee/ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer (R).
General Election Matchup

F. Lautenberg 48%
D. Zimmer 32
Undec 20

Lautenberg As Sen.
Approve 48%
Disapprove 40

Menendez As Sen.
Approve 46%
Disapprove 37


NORTH CAROLINA
A Tarrance Group (R) poll; conducted 7/7-9 for Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R); surveyed 550 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.2% (release, 7/15). Tested: Dole, state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) and contract postal worker Christopher Cole (L).

General Election Matchup
E. Dole 51%
K. Hagan 36
C. Cole 6
Undec 7


NORTH CAROLINA

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 15, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

General Election Matchup
Dole 53%
Hagan 41%


HOUSE

AZ-08

An AZ Opinion (R) poll; conducted 5/15-23 for state Sen. Pres. Tim Bee (R); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 7/18). Tested: Bee and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D).

General Election Matchup
G. Giffords 47%
T. Bee 40

WI-08
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 7/8-9 for '06 nominee John Gard (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 7/16). Tested: Gard and Rep. Steve Kagen (D).
General Election Matchup

S. Kagen 46%
J. Gard 42
Undec 11

WH '08 General Election Matchup
J. McCain 46%
B. Obama 41
Undec 12

Name ID
J. Gard 88%

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Thurs 7/17/08

PRESIDENTIAL
KS
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 14, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

McCain 52%
Obama 32%

NC
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 15, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

McCain 45%
Obama 42%

OR
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 15, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Obama 46%
McCain 37%

SENATE
KS
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 14, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Roberts 57%
Slattery 30%

OR
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 15, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Merkley 43%
Smith 41%

HOUSE
FL-09
A Momentum Analysis (D) poll; conducted 7/11-14 for Atty Bill Mitchell (D); surveyed 400 Dem LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 7/17). Tested: Mitchell, ex-Plant City Mayor John Dicks (D) and League of United Latin American Citizens ex-dir. Anita de Palma (D).
Primary Election Matchup



All Men Wom

B. Mitchell 11% 15% 9%

A. de Palma 11 9 13

J. Dicks 8 10 8

Undec 69 na na

Name ID
B. Mitchell 17%

A. de Palma 15

J. Dicks 15


OH-01
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 6/30-7/2 for Rep. Steve Chabot (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 7/16). Tested: Chabot and state Rep. Steve Driehaus (D).
General Election Matchup

- All Dem GOP

S. Chabot 50% 17% na
S. Driehaus 37 na 9


WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama 46%
J. McCain 39

Fav/Unfav

- All Ind

S. Chabot 63%/23% 63%/26%

Name ID
S. Driehaus 47%

VA-11
A Lake Research Partners (D) poll; conducted 7/10-14 for Fairfax Co. Board of Supervisors Chair Gerry Connolly (D); surveyed 500 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (McArdle, Roll Call, 7/17). Tested: Connolly and Businessman Keith Fimian (R).

General Election Matchup
G. Connolly 52%
K. Fimian 21
Undec 25

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Weds 7/16/08

PRESIDENTIAL

CALIFORNIA
A Field Poll; conducted 7/8-14; surveyed 672 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 7/16). "Oba" and "Cli" columns represent responses among Dem primary supporters of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, respectively.


WH '08 General Election Matchup

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Cli 5/08 1/08

B. Obama 54% 78% 16% 64% 51% 56% 47% 89% 64% 80% 52% 47%

J. McCain 30 9 65 18 35 27 37 5 21 8 35 40

Oth/und 16 13 19 18 14 17 16 6 15 12 13 13
Fav/Unfav

- Now 5/08 1/08

B. Obama 63%/26% 62%/29% 59%/23%

M. Obama 49 /24 na na

J. McCain 48 /38 46 /45 50 /28

C. McCain 35 /18 na na



SENATE

GA SEN Dem primary

DeKalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones (D) and '06 LG nominee/ex-state Rep. Jim Martin (D) led the balloting 7/15 and will head to an 8/5 runoff. They defeated ex-TV investigative reporter Dale Cardwell (D), eco-businessman Rand Knight (D) and Vietnam vet/ex-Sen. Talmadge aide Josh Lanier (D). The winner will face Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) on 11/4. Results, with 99.71% reporting (AP, 7/16):

Votes %age

Jones 195,253 40.32%

Martin 166,444 34.37

Cardwell 77,453 16.00

Knight 25,428 5.25

Lanier 19,630 4.05

TOTAL: 484,208


IOWA

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Harkin 52%
Reed 36%

SOUTH DAKOTA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 9, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Johnson 60%
Dykstra 35%

HOUSE
AL 02 GOP Runoff

In last p.m.'s runoff, state Rep. Jay Love (R) defeated state Sen. Harri Anne Smith (R). Love will take on Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) in the fall. Results, with 99% of the precincts reporting.

votes %age

Love 25,124 53%

Smith 22,404 47



AL 05 GOP Runoff

'94/'96 nominee/Ad exec. Wayne Parker (R) blasted atty Cheryl Baswell Guthrie (R) in the runoff, and will take on state Sen. Parker Griffith (D) in the fall. Results, with 97% of the precincts reporting.

votes %age

Parker 16,028 79%

Guthrie 4,330 21



GA 05 Dem Primary

Rep. John Lewis (D) defeated state Rep. "Able" Mable Thomas (D) and minister Markel Hutchins (D), and will face no general election opposition. Results with 99% of the precincts reporting (AP, 7/16).

votes %age

Lewis 34,573 69%

Hutchins 7,897 16

Thomas 7,695 15



GA 08 Dem Primary

Rep. Jim Marshall (D) easily dispatched of music teacher Robert Nowak (D), and will face ret. USAF Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard (R) in the general. Results with 98% of the precincts reporting (AP, 7/16).

votes %age

Marshall 44,031 86%

Nowak 7,354 14



GA 10 GOP Primary

Rep. Paul Broun (R) defeated state Rep. Barry Fleming (R) and will be challenged by Iraq vet Bobby Saxon (D) in the general. Results with 100% of the precincts reporting (AP, 7/16).

votes %age

Broun 44,726 71%

Fleming 18,250 29

GA 12 Primary
Rep. John Barrow (D) easily turned back state Sen. Regina Thomas (D), and will face ex-Rep. Burns (R) spokesperson John Stone (R) in the fall. Stone defeated ex-WH candidate Ray McKinney (R) and personal trainer Ben Crystal (R). Results with 100% of the precincts reporting (AP, 7/16).

GA 12 Dem Primary GA 12 GOP Primary

votes %age votes %age

Barrow 43,533 76% Stone 9,457 57%

Thomas 13,907 24 McKinney 5,332 32

Crystal 1,915 11




GA 13 Dem Primary

Rep. David Scott (D) crushed ex-state Sen/'02/'06 candidate Donzella James (D), and will face '06 nominee Deborah Honeycutt (R) in the fall. Results with 99% of the precincts reporting (AP, 7/16).

votes %age

Scott 28,212 64%

James 16,068 36



NJ-07
A Nat'l Research (R) poll; conducted 6/24-25 for state Sen. Leonard Lance (R); surveyed 300 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 7/15). Tested: Lance and '06 nominee/Assemb. Linda Stender (D).

General Election Matchup
L. Lance 42%
L. Stender 35

Fav/Unfav
L. Stender 20%/29%

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Tues 7/15/08

PRESIDENTIAL

IOWA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Obama 48%
McCain 38%

MINNESOTA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Obama 52%
McCain 34%

SOUTH DAKOTA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 9, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
McCain 44%
Obama 40%

SENATE

LOUISIANA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 9, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Landrieu 49%
Kennedy 44%

MICHIGAN
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Levin 54%
Hoogendyk 33%

MINNESOTA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Franken 44%
Coleman 42%

HOUSE

OH-16
A Tarrance Group (R) poll; conducted 7/8-9 for the NRCC/state Sen. Kirk Schuring (R); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 7/14). Tested: Schuring and state Sen. John Boccieri (D).
General Election Matchup
K. Schuring 40%
J. Boccieri 34
Undec 26

PA-03
A Momentum Analysis (D) poll; conducted 7/8-10 for businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 7/14). Tested: Dahlkemper and Rep. Phil English (R).
General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP

K. Dahlkemper 41% 62% 20%
P. English 40 21 64
Undec 19 na na

- All Dem GOP
Generic Dem 45% 78% na
Generic GOPer 35 na 64%
English As Rep.
Excellent/good 35%
Fair/poor 52
Re-Elect English
Replace 30%
Re-elect 29
Consider another 20
Undec 21

Monday, July 14, 2008

Mon 7/14/08

PRESIDENTIAL
LOUISIANA
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 9, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
McCain 54%
Obama 34%

MICHIGAN
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
Obama 47%
McCain 39%

MISSOURI
A St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV poll; conducted 7/7-10 by Research 2000; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/11). Party ID Breakdown: 40%D, 36%R, 24%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk Union NonUnion

B. Obama 48% 44% 52% 84% 8% 47% 40% 88% 62% 44%
J. McCain 43 49 37 9 81 43 51 3 29 47\
Undec 9 7 11 7 11 10 9 9 9 9

Fav/Unfav
B. Obama 54%/37%
J. McCain 49 /43
G. Bush 31 /69


NEW YORK
A Siena College poll; conducted 7/7-10; surveyed 626 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 7/14).

WH '08 General Election Matchup
Now 6/11 5/08 4/08 2/08 1/08 6/07 5/07 4/07 3/07

B. Obama 50% 51% 49% 45% 47% 44% 49% 50% 50% 47%
J. McCain 37 33 38 40 40 42 35 33 37 39
Undec 13 17 14 15 13 15 16 18 13 14
Fav/Unfav
- Now 6/11 5/08 4/08 3/08 2/08
B. Obama 57%/32% 58%/30% 55%/34% 54%/34% 56%/32% 60%/30%
H. Clinton 55 /38 56 /38 52 /43 48 /46 52 /43 53 /43
J. McCain 45 /42 42 /47 49 /39 54 /35 54 /34 55 /34


WASHINGTON
A Moore Information (R) poll; conducted 7/9-10; surveyed 400 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 7/14). Party ID Breakdown: 45%D, 38%R, 13%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
B. Obama 47%
J. McCain 37
Neither 5
Undec 11


SENATE

ILLINOIS
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Durbin 61%
Sauerberg 27%

NEW JERSEY
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Lautenberg 49%
Zimmer 36%
 
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