Thursday 7/31

PRESIDENTIAL

CALIFORNIA

A Public Policy Institute of CA poll; conducted 7/8-22; surveyed 2,504 adults; margin of error +/- 2.0%. Subsample of 1,401 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6% (release, 7/31).

WH '08 General Election Matchup (LVs)

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht His 5/18 3/18
 
B. Obama     50% 79% 13% 57% 48% 51% 43% 65% 54%  49%
 
J. McCain    35   9  72  21  36  34  41  22  37   40
 
Other         2   1   2   5   4   1   3   2   2    4
 
Undec        13  11  13  17  12  14  13  11   7    7

Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Who Do You Trust More To Handle Global Warming And Other Enviro Issues/Energy Policy? (LVs)

-            GlobalWarming/Enviro    EnergyPolicy
 
-            All Dem GOP Ind His     All Dem GOP Ind His
 
B. Obama     52% 80% 19% 56% 64%     51% 79% 16% 54% 64%
 
J. McCain    28   8  55  17  19      33   9  65  27  20
 
Both          1  --   2   1   2       1  --   1  --   1
 
Neither      10   4  13  18   6       7   4   8  11   6
 
Undec         9   8  11   8   9       8   8  10   8   9

Bush As POTUS

-            All Dem GOP Ind LVs
 
Approve      26%  9% 57% 18% 28%
 
Disapprove   69  88  38  78  69

Bush Handling U.S. Enviro Issues

-            All Dem GOP Ind LVs
 
Approve      24%  9% 48% 19% 25%
 
Disapprove   66  86  38  73  66

FLORIDA

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 7/23-29; surveyed 1,248 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 7/31). Note: Trends 5/22 and earlier are among RVs.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-         All  GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 6/16 5/22 5/1
 
B. Obama  46%   9% 86% 41% 45% 47% 39% 89% 56% 47%  41%  43%
 
J. McCain 44   88   9  46  47  42  53   2  36  43   45   44
 
Other      2   --   1   4   2   1   1  --   3   2    2    1
 
Not vote  --   --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --    4    4
 
Undec      7    3   4  10   6   9   7   8   4   8    8    8

Is Your Mind Made Up, Or Do You Think You Might Change Your Mind Before The Election?

-                All         ObamaVoters McCainVoters
 
-                Now 6/16    Now 6/16    Now 6/16
 
Mind made  up    80% 79%     78% 79%     83% 79%
 
Might  change    18  19      20  19      16  19

Fav/Unfav

-            All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
J. McCain    51%/30% 83%/ 8% 24%/51% 54%/27% 54%/30% 49%/29%
 
B. Obama    50  /33  20 /65  78 / 8  46 /32  46 /38  54 /29
 
C. McCain   29  /10  47 / 3  15 /18  30 / 9  26 / 9  32 /11
 
M. Obama    29  /27  12 /48  47 / 8  28 /28  25 /31  33 /23

OHIO

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 7/23-29; surveyed 1,229 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 7/31). Note: Trends 5/22 and earlier are among RVs.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-            All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 6/16 5/22 5/1
 
B. Obama     46%  8% 84% 43% 46% 47% 42% 89% 48%  40%  42%
 
J. McCain    44  89  11  41  45  44  49   2  42   44   43
 
Other         1  --   1   2   1   1   1  --   2    2    2
 
Not vote     --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --    5    5
 
Undec         8   3   5  14   8   8   8   9   7    9    8

Is Your Mind Made Up, Or Do You Think You Might Change Your Mind Before The Election?

-                All         ObamaVoters McCainVoters
 
-                Now 6/16    Now 6/16    Now 6/16
 
Mind made  up    79% 77%     77% 81%     80% 73%
 
Might  change    21  21      22  18      19  24

Fav/Unfav

-            All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
J. McCain    52%/32% 84%/ 5% 26%/57% 54%/28% 53%/33% 52%/31%
 
B. Obama    50  /34  20 /65  78 /12  50 /29  50 /37  51 /32
 
M. Obama    29  /25  13 /42  48 / 8  22 /27  24 /27  33 /23
 
C. McCain   26  / 9  43 / 2  15 /16  22 / 9  23 / 9  28 /10

PENNSYLVANIA

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 7/23-29; surveyed 1,317 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.7% (release, 7/31). Note: Trends 5/22 and earlier are among RVs.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-            All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 6/16 5/22 5/1
 
B. Obama     49% 10% 80% 49% 48% 50% 45% 91% 52%  46%  47%
 
J. McCain    42  85  14  38  44  39  46   1  40   40   38
 
Other         1  --  --   2   1   1   1  --   2    2    2
 
Not vote     --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --    5    4
 
Undec         8   5   6  11   7   9   8   8   7    8    9

Is Your Mind Made Up, Or Do You Think You Might Change Your Mind Before The Election?

-                All         ObamaVoters McCainVoters
 
-                Now 6/16    Now 6/16    Now 6/16
 
Mind made  up    77% 75%     78% 75%     75% 74%
 
Might  change    21  24      19  24      24  24

Fav/Unfav

-            All     GOP     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
B. Obama     54%/27% 27%/57% 76%/ 9% 53%/24% 52%/32% 56%/23%
 
J. McCain   54  /28  86 / 6  30 /47  56 /27  55 /30  53 /27
 
M. Obama    33  /21  17 /37  50 / 9  27 /23  29 /22  36 /19
 
C. McCain   25  / 9  37 / 2  18 /13  24 /10  26 / 9  24 / 9

WASHINGTON

A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 7/25-27; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/30).

WH '08 General Election Matchup

B. Obama 48%

J. McCain 37

Undec 15

HOUSE

NV-03

An Anzalone Liszt Research (D) poll; conducted 7/23-28 for '06 GOV nominee/state Sen. Dina Titus (D); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 7/31). Tested: Titus and Rep. Jon Porter (R).

General Election Matchups

D. Titus 50%

J. Porter 43

D. Titus 43%

J. Porter 39

Other 10

Undec 7

Generic Dem 43%

Generic GOPer 43

Porter As Rep.

Positive 50%

Negative 41

Titus As State Sen.

Positive 56%

Negative 32