House 2010

KS-01
A KWCH-TV poll; conducted 6/18-21 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 475 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 6/22). Tested: '06 GOV nominee/doctor/state Sen. Jim Barnett, prof. Sue Boldra, atty Marck Cobb, state Sen. Tim Huelskamp, real-estate agent Tracy Mann and ex-Sen. Brownback CoS Rob Wasinger.

Primary Election Matchup

-             All Men Wom 2/22
J. Barnett    23% 23% 23% 23%
T. Mann       20  19  22   4
T. Huelskamp  18  18  19  16
R. Wasinger   11  12   9   8
S. Boldra      8   9   8   5
M. Cobb        3   3   4   2
Other         n/a n/a n/a 19
Undec         16  16  15  23

OK-02
A Lake Research Partners (D) poll; conducted 6/14-17 for state Sen. Jim Wilson (D); surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/21). Tested: Wilson and Rep. Dan Boren.

Primary Election Matchup

D. Boren   62%
J. Wilson  17

Governor 2010

Arkansas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/18). Tested: Gov. Mike Beebe (D) and '90 AR-02 nominee/restaurateur/ex-state Sen. Jim Keet (R). (Note: Portions of this poll appeared in 6/17's Hotline.)

General Election Matchup

-         Now 5/19
M. Beebe  57% 53%
J. Keet   33  38
Other      1   1
Undec      9   7

Fav/Unfav

-         Now     5/19
M. Beebe  72%/25% 68%/31%
J. Keet   45 /30  47 /27

Minnesota
A KSTP-TV poll; conducted 6/14-16 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 1,617 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.4%. Subsample of 500 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/17). Party ID breakdown: 37%D, 33%R, 27%I. Tested: State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D), ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D), atty/ex-state House Min. Leader Matt Entenza (D), '06 indie SEN candidate/'04/'08 MN-02 candidate/businessman Peter Idusogie (D), state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (IP).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

-                     All Men Wom
M. Dayton             39% 42% 35%
M. Anderson Kelliher  26  22  30
M. Entenza            22  24  19
P. Idusogie            3   4   2
Undec                 11   8  14

General Election Matchups

-                     All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/5
T. Emmer              35%  7% 72% 30% 41% 29% 41%
M. Anderson Kelliher  33  64   6  25  29  36  33
T. Horner             12   9   8  22  14  10   9
Undec                 21  21  14  23  16  25  17

-                     All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/5
M. Dayton             38% 69%  9% 29% 34% 41% 34%
T. Emmer              35   7  73  30  42  29  42
T. Horner             12  10   7  21  14  10   9
Undec                 15  14  10  19  10  20  15

-                     All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/5
T. Emmer              37%  8% 78% 31% 44% 30% 42%
M. Entenza            33  61   7  25  31  35  31
T. Horner             12  12   5  21  12  11  10
Undec                 18  19  10  23  13  24  16

Oklahoma
A SoonerPoll.com poll; conducted 5/25-6/9; surveyed 318 Dem primary LVs and 324 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 5.5% and 5.4%, respectively (release, 6/18). Tested: LG Jari Askins (D), AG Drew Edmondson (D), state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R), Rep. Mary Fallin (R-05), rancher/businessman Robert Hubbard (R) and retired businessman Roger Jackson (R). (Note: Interviews for the Dem primary poll ended on 6/8).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

-             All Men Wom 4/15 1/5 4/09
D. Edmondson  37% 40% 35% 40%  46% 29%
J. Askins     36  34  37  35   36  34
Undec         27  26  28  25   18  38

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-             All Men Wom 4/15 1/5
M. Fallin     59% 63% 56% 62%  68%
R. Brogdon    10   7  12  13   16
R. Jackson     2   1   3  n/a  n/a
R. Hubbard     1   2   1  n/a  n/a
Undec         28  27  29  25   16

Tennessee
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/17). Tested: Businessman Mike McWherter (D), Rep. Zach Wamp (R-03), Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) and LG Ron Ramsey (R).

General Election Matchups

-             Now 3/22
B. Haslam     50% 45%
M. McWherter  32  27
Other          5   5
Undec         14  23

-             Now 3/22
R. Ramsey     44% 43%
M. McWherter  33  29
Other          7   5
Undec         16  23

-             Now 3/22
Z. Wamp       44% 41%
M. McWherter  33  31
Other          8   7
Undec         14  22

Fav/Unfav

-             Now     3/22
B. Haslam     66%/17% 53%/18%
Z. Wamp       51 /29  42 /27
R. Ramsey     46 /30  43 /23
M. McWherter  45 /38  34 /32

Texas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/16; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/18). Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

General Election Matchup

-           Now 5/13 4/14 3/3 2/1 1/17
R. Perry    48% 51%  48%  49% 48% 50%
B. White    40  38   44   43  39  40
Other        5   4    2    3   5   4
Undec        8   6    6    6   8   6

Perry As Gov.

-           Now 5/13 4/14 3/3 2/1 1/17
Approve     53% 55%  59%  54% 50% 53%
Disapprove  45  42   40   44  48  46

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     5/13    4/14    3/3     2/1     1/17
B. White    55%/36% 47%/41% 54%/36% 54%/34% 46%/38% 49%/35%
R. Perry    53 /45  55 /43  59 /37  54 /46  54 /44  55 /42

Governor 2010

Michigan
A Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll; conducted 4/21; surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/23). Tested: Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D), state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D), '98 nominee/ex-Kevorkian atty Geoffrey Fieger (D) and '02 LG candidate/state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D).

Primary Election Matchup

G. Fieger         28%
A. Dillon         20
V. Bernero        13
A. Wheeler Smith   8
Other              2
Undec             29

Oklahoma
A SoonerPoll.com poll; conducted 4/5-15; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Oversamples of 304 Dem primary LVs and 301 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 5.6% for each (release, 4/23). Party reg. breakdown of main sample: 53%D, 40%R, 7%I. Tested: LG Jari Askins (D), AG Drew Edmondson (D), state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) and Rep. Mary Fallin (R-05).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

-             All Men Wom 1/5 4/09
D. Edmondson  40% 42% 39% 46% 29%
J. Askins     35  35  36  36  34
Undec         25  23  26  18  38

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)

-             All Men Wom 1/5
M. Fallin     62% 60% 64% 68%
R. Brogdon    13  16  11  16
Undec         25  24  25  16

Fav/Unfav

-             All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/5     4/09
M. Fallin     50%/25% 34%/36% 70%/10% 57%/20% 54%/29% 64%/16%
D. Edmondson  43 /24  51 /31  37 /34  29 /31  51 /31  50 /15
J. Askins     36 /20  64 /11  26 /33  43 /20  43 /28  46 /16
R. Brogdon    11 /14   7 /17  18 / 9  17 /17  13 /21  10 / 5

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/20; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/23). Tested: '02 candidate/Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (D), '98 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (R) and Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R).

General Election Matchups

-           Now 3/16 2/17                 Now 3/16 2/17
M. Neumann  46% 46%  44%      S. Walker   46% 48%  49%
T. Barrett  46  42   42       T. Barrett  44  42   40
Other        4   4    4       Other        3   2    1
Undec        5   8   10       Undec        7   8   10

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     3/16    2/17
M. Neumann  53%/31% 53%/27% 49%/31%
S. Walker   48 /33  55 /28  55 /29
T. Barrett  40 /46  53 /34  49 /36

Governor 2010

Georgia
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 2/26-28; surveyed 516 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 3/4). Tested: State Sen. Jeff Chapman, Rep. Nathan Deal (09), Sec/State Karen Handel, state Sen. Eric Johnson, activist Ray McBerry, Insurance Commis. John Oxendine and state Rep. Austin Scott.

Primary Election Matchup

-            All Men Wom
J. Oxendine  27% 29% 24%
K. Handel    19  16  22
N. Deal      13  16  10
E. Johnson    3   5   1
A. Scott      3   4   3
J. Chapman    2   1   3
R. McBerry    2   2   1
Undec        32  28  36

Fav/Unfav

-            All     Men     Wom
J. Oxendine  42%/24% 47%/26% 37%/22%
K. Handel    24 /13  24 /15  24 /11
N. Deal      14 /14  16 /15  11 /14

Oklahoma
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/4). Tested: LG Jari Askins (D), AG Drew Edmondson (D), state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) and Rep./ex-LG Mary Fallin (R-05).

General Election Matchups

J. Askins     42%             M. Fallin     51%
R. Brogdon    39              J. Askins     37
Other          8              Other          8
Undec         11              Undec         11

R. Brogdon    42%             M. Fallin     51%
D. Edmondson  41              D. Edmondson  36
Other          5              Other          5
Undec         12              Undec          8

Fav/Unfav

M. Fallin     62%/31%
D. Edmondson  50 /37
J. Askins     48 /36
R. Brogdon    39 /32

House 2010

OK-02
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 2/26-28; surveyed 664 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 3/3). Tested: Rep. Dan Boren (D), student Dan Arnett (R), farmer Daniel Edmonds (R), businessman Howard Houchen (R), veterinarian Charles Thompson (R) and Tea Party activist/Obama birth-certificate seeker Miki Booth (I).

General Election Matchups

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Boren     49% 66% 26% 34% 47% 51%
D. Arnett    22  11  42  19  26  19
M. Booth      7   5   8  10   7   6
Undec        22  18  23  38  21  23

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Boren     44% 64% 18% 26% 40% 48%
D. Edmonds   28  12  56  23  31  26
M. Booth      8   5   9  19   8   7
Undec        20  19  17  33  21  18

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Boren     48% 67% 23% 25% 44% 51%
H. Houchen   26  11  51  27  31  22
M. Booth      7   5   8  13   7   8
Undec        19  17  17  35  19  19

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Boren     45% 65% 19% 25% 41% 49%
C. Thompson  25  12  48  25  31  20
M. Booth      8   5  12  13   9   8
Undec        21  17  21  37  19  23

Boren As Rep.

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve      51% 55% 47% 40% 49% 52%
Disapprove   33  27  38  43  40  26

Fav/Unfav

-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
C. Thompson   7%/13%  8%/14%  7%/11%  2%/16%  7%/14%  7%/13%
D. Edmonds    7 /14   7 /15   8 /10   3 /21   8 /14   6 /13
M. Booth      6 /12   7 /11   5 /12   3 /19   6 /12   5 /13
H. Houchen    6 /12   6 /12   7 /10   3 /20   8 /12   4 /12
D. Arnett     6 /13   7 /13   5 /12   4 /18   6 /15   6 /12

Obama As POTUS

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve      27% 42%  7% 13% 25% 29%
Disapprove   65  47  89  81  68  63

Cong. Dems Job Approval

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve      22% 35%  4%  9% 19% 24%
Disapprove   70  53  93  84  76  65

Cong. GOPers Job Approval

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve      33% 20% 56% 28% 36% 30%
Disapprove   53  66  31  58  56  51

Senate 2010

Florida
A FL Chamber of Commerce poll; conducted 2/16-19; surveyed 300 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 3/1). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Primary Election Matchup

M. Rubio  48%
C. Crist  30
Undec     22

New York
A Marist College poll; conducted 2/22, 2/24; surveyed 646 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 3/2). Tested: Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) and CNBC personality Larry Kudlow (R).

General Election Matchup

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/27
C. Schumer  69% 88% 45% 63% 63% 74% 67%
L. Kudlow   24   8  45  29  30  18  25
Undec        7   4  11   9   7   8   8

Schumer As Sen.

-               All Dem GOP Ind 1/27 1/14 11/17 9/10 6/25
Excellent/good  53% 67% 40% 47% 47%  51%  54%   58%  54%
Fair/poor       43  30  57  47  48   42   42    39   42

A Marist College poll; conducted 2/22, 2/24, 3/1; surveyed 524 Dem RVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 3/2). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), '06 TN SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) and '06 candidate Jonathan Tasini (D). (Note: Ford announced today he would not run.)

Primary Election Matchup

-              All Men Wom Wht Oth 1/27 1/14
K. Gillibrand  50% 48% 50% 56% 39% 44%  43%
H. Ford        19  22  17  16  26  27   24
J. Tasini       3   1   4   3   3   4   n/a
Undec          28  29  28  25  32  25   33

A Marist College poll; conducted 2/22, 2/24; surveyed 646 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 3/2). Tested: Gillibrand, '98 Comp. nominee/ex-Nassau Co. legislator/ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R), ex-Gov. George Pataki (R) and Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman (R).

General Election Matchups

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/27
K. Gillibrand  58% 85% 25% 45% 53% 62% 52%
B. Blakeman    28   8  56  32  33  23  30
Undec          14   7  19  23  15  14  18

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/27 1/14 11/17 9/22
G. Pataki      48% 28% 75% 57% 61% 37% 49%  42%  47%   45%
K. Gillibrand  45  68  18  35  35  55  43   45   45    41
Undec           7   5   6   8   5   8   8   13    8    14

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
K. Gillibrand  59% 83% 31% 48% 54% 64%
M. Zuckerman   26   9  50  28  31  21
Undec          15   8  19  25  15  15

Gillibrand As Sen.

-              All Dem GOP Ind 1/27 1/14 11/17 9/10 6/25 4/29
Excellent/good 25% 33% 17% 26% 24%  24%  25%   26%  24%  19%
Fair/poor      53  47  59  53  51   51   51    47   43   38

Oklahoma
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/1). Tested: Sen. Tom Coburn (R) and Gov. Brad Henry (D).

General Election Matchup

T. Coburn   52%
B. Henry    40
Other        2
Undec        5

Fav/Unfav

T. Coburn   63%/31%
B. Henry    63 /33

Henry As Gov.

Approve     64%
Disapprove  34

Pennsylvania
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/22-28; surveyed 1,452 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.6%. Subsample of 649 Dems; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 3/2). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)

-           All Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26
A. Specter  53% 52% 54% 53%   44%  55%  50%
J. Sestak   29  37  23  30    25   23   21
Other        2   2   1   1     2    1    1
Not vote     2   1   3   1     1    2    2
Undec       14   8  18  15    28   19   27

General Election Matchups

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26 5/3
A. Specter  49% 82% 15% 45% 46% 52% 44%   42%  45%  46%  53%
P. Toomey   42  11  78  42  49  36  44    43   44   37   33
Other       --  --  --  --  --  --   1     1   --    1    2
Not vote     1   1  --   1  --   1  --     1   --    3    1
Undec        8   5   7  11   5  10  11    13   10   14   10

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26
P. Toomey   39% 10% 74% 40% 45% 33% 40%   38%  39%  35%
J. Sestak   36  71   3  28  37  36  35    35   35   37
Other        1  --   1   1   1  --   1     1    1    1
Not vote     1   1  --   2  --   1   2     1    1    3
Undec       24  18  22  30  17  30  22    25   23   23

Specter As Sen.

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26 5/3
Approve     48% 75% 22% 44% 44% 52% 47%   44%  47%  51%  56%
Disapprove  45  18  75  49  53  39  45    48   46   39   36

Fav/Unfav

-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     12/14   9/28
A. Specter  44%/43% 67%/18% 20%/72% 41%/46% 43%/45% 42%/46%
P. Toomey   26 / 8  11 /11  44 / 2  26 /10  35 /10  34 /12
J. Sestak   18 / 6  23 / 2   9 / 7  23 / 8  20 / 9  21 / 8

Does Specter Deserve To Be Reelected?

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26
Yes, deserves   38% 60% 15% 37% 35% 41% 38%   37%  40%  42%
No, does not    52  27  80  54  59  45  50    52   49   43
Undec           10  14   5   9   6  14  12    11   11   15

Does Obama's Support Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Specter?

-                          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28
More likely                12% 27%  1%  6% 10% 14% 11%   12%
Less likely                18   3  40  17  22  15  17    18
Doesn't make a difference  69  69  58  77  67  70  71    68

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You Trust More To Do In Office What They Say They Will Do During The Campaign? (Dems)

-               All Men Wom
A. Specter      53% 50% 55%
J. Sestak       25  32  21
No difference    4   3   5
Undec           17  15  19

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You Believe Most Shares Your Values?

-               All Men Wom
A. Specter      48% 47% 48%
J. Sestak       29  36  25
No difference    2   1   3
Undec           20  15  24