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Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Senate 2010

Florida
A FL Chamber of Commerce poll; conducted 2/16-19; surveyed 300 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 3/1). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Primary Election Matchup
M. Rubio  48%
C. Crist 30
Undec 22

New York
A Marist College poll; conducted 2/22, 2/24; surveyed 646 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 3/2). Tested: Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) and CNBC personality Larry Kudlow (R).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/27
C. Schumer 69% 88% 45% 63% 63% 74% 67%
L. Kudlow 24 8 45 29 30 18 25
Undec 7 4 11 9 7 8 8

Schumer As Sen.
-               All Dem GOP Ind 1/27 1/14 11/17 9/10 6/25
Excellent/good 53% 67% 40% 47% 47% 51% 54% 58% 54%
Fair/poor 43 30 57 47 48 42 42 39 42

A Marist College poll; conducted 2/22, 2/24, 3/1; surveyed 524 Dem RVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 3/2). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), '06 TN SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) and '06 candidate Jonathan Tasini (D). (Note: Ford announced today he would not run.)

Primary Election Matchup
-              All Men Wom Wht Oth 1/27 1/14
K. Gillibrand 50% 48% 50% 56% 39% 44% 43%
H. Ford 19 22 17 16 26 27 24
J. Tasini 3 1 4 3 3 4 n/a
Undec 28 29 28 25 32 25 33

A Marist College poll; conducted 2/22, 2/24; surveyed 646 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 3/2). Tested: Gillibrand, '98 Comp. nominee/ex-Nassau Co. legislator/ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R), ex-Gov. George Pataki (R) and Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman (R).

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/27
K. Gillibrand 58% 85% 25% 45% 53% 62% 52%
B. Blakeman 28 8 56 32 33 23 30
Undec 14 7 19 23 15 14 18

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/27 1/14 11/17 9/22
G. Pataki 48% 28% 75% 57% 61% 37% 49% 42% 47% 45%
K. Gillibrand 45 68 18 35 35 55 43 45 45 41
Undec 7 5 6 8 5 8 8 13 8 14

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
K. Gillibrand 59% 83% 31% 48% 54% 64%
M. Zuckerman 26 9 50 28 31 21
Undec 15 8 19 25 15 15

Gillibrand As Sen.
-              All Dem GOP Ind 1/27 1/14 11/17 9/10 6/25 4/29
Excellent/good 25% 33% 17% 26% 24% 24% 25% 26% 24% 19%
Fair/poor 53 47 59 53 51 51 51 47 43 38

Oklahoma
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/1). Tested: Sen. Tom Coburn (R) and Gov. Brad Henry (D).

General Election Matchup
T. Coburn   52%
B. Henry 40
Other 2
Undec 5

Fav/Unfav
T. Coburn   63%/31%
B. Henry 63 /33

Henry As Gov.
Approve     64%
Disapprove 34

Pennsylvania
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/22-28; surveyed 1,452 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.6%. Subsample of 649 Dems; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 3/2). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26
A. Specter 53% 52% 54% 53% 44% 55% 50%
J. Sestak 29 37 23 30 25 23 21
Other 2 2 1 1 2 1 1
Not vote 2 1 3 1 1 2 2
Undec 14 8 18 15 28 19 27

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26 5/3
A. Specter 49% 82% 15% 45% 46% 52% 44% 42% 45% 46% 53%
P. Toomey 42 11 78 42 49 36 44 43 44 37 33
Other -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 1 -- 1 2
Not vote 1 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 3 1
Undec 8 5 7 11 5 10 11 13 10 14 10

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26
P. Toomey 39% 10% 74% 40% 45% 33% 40% 38% 39% 35%
J. Sestak 36 71 3 28 37 36 35 35 35 37
Other 1 -- 1 1 1 -- 1 1 1 1
Not vote 1 1 -- 2 -- 1 2 1 1 3
Undec 24 18 22 30 17 30 22 25 23 23

Specter As Sen.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26 5/3
Approve 48% 75% 22% 44% 44% 52% 47% 44% 47% 51% 56%
Disapprove 45 18 75 49 53 39 45 48 46 39 36

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     12/14   9/28
A. Specter 44%/43% 67%/18% 20%/72% 41%/46% 43%/45% 42%/46%
P. Toomey 26 / 8 11 /11 44 / 2 26 /10 35 /10 34 /12
J. Sestak 18 / 6 23 / 2 9 / 7 23 / 8 20 / 9 21 / 8

Does Specter Deserve To Be Reelected?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/26
Yes, deserves 38% 60% 15% 37% 35% 41% 38% 37% 40% 42%
No, does not 52 27 80 54 59 45 50 52 49 43
Undec 10 14 5 9 6 14 12 11 11 15

Does Obama's Support Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Specter?
-                          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 12/14 9/28
More likely 12% 27% 1% 6% 10% 14% 11% 12%
Less likely 18 3 40 17 22 15 17 18
Doesn't make a difference 69 69 58 77 67 70 71 68

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You Trust More To Do In Office What They Say They Will Do During The Campaign? (Dems)
-               All Men Wom
A. Specter 53% 50% 55%
J. Sestak 25 32 21
No difference 4 3 5
Undec 17 15 19

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You Believe Most Shares Your Values?
-               All Men Wom
A. Specter 48% 47% 48%
J. Sestak 29 36 25
No difference 2 1 3
Undec 20 15 24

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