From: Michelle Madeley
Sent: Wednesday, September 24, 2008 1:51 PM
To: Program Division; Development Division; Political and Campaigns Committee; Cormac Flynn; Ed Zuckerman
Subject: Polling update: Presidential: AK, IA, MA, MI, NV, NH, OR, PA, VT, VA Senate: NH, VA, House: NH-02
PRESIDENTIAL
ALASKA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/20-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 38%D, 32%R, 30%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-49 50+
McCain/Palin 53% 27% 90% 47% 61% 47% 62% 7% 58% 47%
Obama/Biden 41 66 7 47 34 47 33 86 34 45
Undec 5 7 3 6 5 6 5 8 8 7
IOWA
A Marist College poll; conducted 9/18-21; surveyed 714 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.7%. Subsample of 467 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 9/24).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All LVs Dem GOP Ind
Obama/Biden 46% 51% 92% 9% 44%
McCain/Palin 41 41 6 85 42
Other 2 2 * 1 3
Undec 11 6 2 5 11
Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Obama 58%/36% na na na na na
J. Biden 54 /40 na na na na na
J. McCain 50 /30 76%/11% 23%/52% 46%/32% 46%/37% 53%/24%
S. Palin 49 /35 20 /61 83 / 8 51 /30 53 /32 46 /37
MASSACHUSETTS
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/20-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 39%D, 14%R, 47%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+
Obama/Biden 55% 76% 7% 51% 49% 60% 58% 50%
McCain/Palin 39 19 89 41 45 34 36 43
Other 1 -- -- 2 1 1 1 1
Undec 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 6
MICHIGAN
An Inside MI Politics poll; conducted 9/15-20 by MRG of Lansing; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Spangler, Detroit Free Press, 9/24).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
J. McCain 46%
B. Obama 43
NEVADA
A Myers Research (D)/Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 9/14-19 for Project New West (D); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Ralston, RalstonFlash.com, 9/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
B. Obama 47%
J. McCain 45
NEW HAMPSHIRE
A Marist College poll; conducted 9/17-21; surveyed 763 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 604 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/24).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All LVs Dem GOP Ind
Obama/Biden 48% 51% 96% 11% 54%
McCain/Palin 45 45 2 87 38
Other 1 1 1 1 2
Undec 6 3 1 1 6
Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Obama 63%/31% na na na na na
J. Biden 61 /34 na na na na na
S. Palin 52 /38 12%/82% 85%/ 8% 48%/40% 48%/41% 56%/35%
J. McCain 51 /33 84 / 6 23 /60 57 /28 54 /32 49 /35
OREGON
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/19-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 45%D, 34%R, 21%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+
Obama/Biden 52% 87% 10% 46% 51% 53% 57% 47%
McCain/Palin 41 7 85 42 42 40 36 46
Other 1 -- -- 6 1 2 1 2
Undec 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 5
PENNSYLVANIA
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/20-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 53%D, 39%R, 8%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+
Obama/Biden 50% 84% 6% 41% 47% 53% 52% 48%
McCain/Palin 46 13 89 51 50 42 43 49
Other -- -- -- 3 -- -- -- --
Undec 4 3 5 5 3 5 5 3
VERMONT
An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 9/18-22; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 9/23). Party ID Breakdown: 34%D, 27%R, 39%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-49 50+
Obama/Biden 56% 87% 9% 61% 50% 61% 59% 52%
McCain/Palin 38 7 86 31 45 31 34 42
Other 1 1 -- 2 1 1 1 1
Undec 5 5 5 6 4 7 6 5
VIRGINIA
A Today Show/NBC News poll; conducted 9/17-22 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 9/24).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
McCain/Palin 47% 8% 81% 49% 51% 43% 56% 4%
Obama/Biden 44 85 9 41 39 49 35 89
Other 1 1 1 1 2 -- 1 --
Undec 8 6 9 9 8 8 8 7
Fav/Unfav
J. McCain 48%/22%
S. Palin 46 /23
B. Obama 45 /34
J. Biden 39 /26
SENATE
NEW HAMPSHIRE
A WMUR-TV/Granite State Poll; conducted 9/14-21 by UNH; surveyed 523 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 9/23). Tested: ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Sen. John Sununu (R).
General Election Matchup
- All Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 7/20 4/30 2/08 9/07 7/07
J. Shaheen 48% 87% 42% 7% 43% 52% 46% 52% 55% 54% 54%
J. Sununu 44 7 39 86 48 40 42 40 37 38 38
Other 2 2 4 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
Undec 7 3 16 6 6 7 10 7 7 7 7
Fav/Unfav
- Now 7/20 4/30 2/08 9/07 7/07
J. Shaheen 47%/40% 53%/31% 56%/29% 57%/23% 56%/25% 60%/24%
J. Sununu 44 /37 52 /33 48 /37 46 /35 40 /37 43 /35
VIRGINIA
A Today Show/NBC News poll; conducted 9/17-22 by Mason-Dixon; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 9/24). Tested: ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D) and ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
M. Warner 61% 93% 33% 59% 53% 69% 56% 87%
J. Gilmore 28 2 51 27 34 22 33 4
Undec 11 5 16 14 13 9 11 9
Fav/Unfav
M. Warner 62%/13%
J. Gilmore 27 /35
HOUSE
NH-02
An Anzalone Liszt Research (D) poll; conducted 9/14-18 for Rep. Paul Hodes (D); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/24). Tested: Hodes, talk show host Jennifer Horn (R), gun-rights activist/ex-state Rep. Chester Lapointe (L).
General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP
P. Hodes 50% 83% na
J. Horn 32 5 72
C. Lapointe 4 na na
Generic Dem 51%
Generic GOPer 36
Fav/Unfav
P. Hodes 41%/26%
G. Bush 30 /69
Hodes As Rep.
Positive 47%
Negative 25
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 5/08
B. Obama 52% 47%
J. McCain 39 41
SEN '08 General Election Matchup
J. Shaheen 55%
J. Sununu 3/8
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