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Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Polling Update: Senate 2010 - NY,NC; Governor 2010 - NY

Senate 2010 New York

A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 5/18-21; surveyed 622 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 5/26). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), Rep. Peter King (R-03) and ex-Gov. George Pataki (R).

General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 3/18 2/18
K. Gillibrand 48% 63% 28% 42% 47% 50% 49% 68% 33% 47% 40%
P. King 26 13 49 25 26 25 27 15 8 23 27
Undec 26 24 23 33 27 25 24 17 58 30 33

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 3/18
K. Gillibrand 43% 53% 27% 43% 40% 46% 44% 66% 24% 41%
G. Pataki 43 32 60 44 45 41 43 25 57 41
Undec 14 15 13 13 15 13 13 9 19 18

If Gillibrand Runs For Sen. In '10,
Would You Elect Her Or Would You Prefer Someone Else?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18
Elect her 27% 26% 31% 25% 28% 26% 30% 23% 11% 20% 23%
Prefer another 39 35 42 42 39 38 35 35 59 47 37
Undec 34 39 27 33 33 35 34 41 30 33 39

Reelect Schumer In '10?
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
Reelect him 61% 73% 47% 50% 61% 60% 59% 75% 57%
Prefer another 31 18 46 41 33 30 32 17 41
Undec 8 9 6 9 6 10 9 8 2

Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 4/15 3/18
C. Schumer 63%/25% 71%/13% 49%/40% 61%/33% na na
G. Pataki 53 /36 48 /40 63 /23 53 /40 49%/43% 49%/41%
K. Gillibrand 33 /21 31 /28 35 /19 34 /29 33 /23 26 /20

Senate 2010 North Carolina

A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 5/19-21; surveyed 798 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 5/26). Party ID Breakdown: 47%D, 32%R, 22%I. Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), Elizabeth Edwards (D), LG Walter Dalton (D), '02 candidate/state Sen./ex-state House Speaker Dan Blue (D), '08 GOV candidate/ex-Treas. Richard Moore (D), Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-02), Rep. Health Shuler (D-11) and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D).

General Election Matchups
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 46% 53% 40% 21% 79% 50% 53% 17%
E. Edwards 35 32 38 55 9 32 31 53
Undec 19 15 22 24 12 18 16 30

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 48% 57% 41% 22% 83% 52% 55% 22%
W. Dalton 29 30 29 50 3 24 25 45
Undec 22 13 30 28 13 24 20 32

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 44% 49% 39% 20% 77% 47% 51% 16%
D. Blue 33 36 31 52 10 26 28 49
Undec 23 15 30 28 13 27 20 35

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 47% 55% 40% 21% 82% 51% 55% 17%
R. Moore 34 31 37 57 7 26 28 58
Undec 19 14 23 22 12 24 17 25

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 47% 55% 41% 22% 83% 50% 56% 16%
B. Etheridge 31 29 32 52 4 25 25 53
Undec 22 16 27 26 13 26 19 31

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 1/18
R. Burr 44% 49% 40% 19% 80% 44% 52% 14% 39%
H. Shuler 28 28 27 45 5 24 24 44 28
Undec 28 23 33 36 15 32 25 42 32

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 2/15
R. Burr 42% 46% 38% 17% 76% 44% 49% 14% 46%
C. Cunningham 34 33 36 55 7 29 28 60 27
Undec 24 21 26 28 16 27 23 26 27

Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 1/18
R. Moore 36%/25% 51%/12% 18%/41% 30%/31% na
B. Etheridge 31 /27 50 /11 9 /48 21 /31 na
H. Shuler 25 /25 35 /13 11 /42 26 /25 21%/21%
W. Dalton 24 /29 39 /14 7 /45 17 /36 na
D. Blue 24 /31 41 /18 7 /45 14 /37 na


Governor 2010 New York

A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 5/18-21; surveyed 622 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 5/26). Tested: Gov. David Paterson (D), AG Andrew Cuomo (D), ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and '06 GOV nominee John Faso (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/23 12/11
A. Cuomo 70% 69% 71% 72% 58% 72% 64% 67% 53% 33% 26%
D. Paterson 19 24 16 19 28 19 11 17 27 35 49
Other/undec 11 7 13 9 14 9 25 17 20 33 25

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
R. Giuliani 78% 76% 80%
J. Faso 10 10 10
Undec 12 14 10

General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18
R. Giuliani 59% 47% 80% 57% 55% 62% 64% 28% 43% 56% 56%
D. Paterson 31 45 11 28 36 27 27 61 34 29 33
Undec 10 8 9 15 9 11 8 11 23 15 11

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18
A. Cuomo 53% 67% 28% 51% 52% 53% 49% 79% 63% 53% 51%
R. Giuliani 41 28 67 41 43 40 46 17 15 39 41
Undec 6 5 6 9 5 7 6 4 23 8 9

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
J. Faso 38% 24% 64% 37% 40% 36% 42% 18% 13%
D. Paterson 37 50 16 35 38 36 34 64 44
Undec 25 26 20 28 22 27 24 18 43

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
A. Cuomo 65% 79% 46% 60% 64% 67% 63% 84% 66%
J. Faso 16 7 33 16 19 13 17 4 17
Undec 19 15 21 24 17 20 20 13 17

If Paterson Runs For Gov. In '10,
Would You Elect Him Or Would You Prefer Someone Else?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15 3/18
Elect him 15% 15% 11% 17% 17% 13% 13% 33% 11% 12% 14%
Prefer another 71 68 79 67 68 73 72 49 76 71 67
Undec 15 16 11 16 15 15 15 18 13 17 19

Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 4/15 3/18
A. Cuomo 66%/20% 67%/14% 65%/25% 66%/24% 66%/18% 68%/17%
R. Giuliani 61 /35 50 /46 79 /16 61 /32 55 /41 58 /36
D. Paterson 27 /60 31 /57 20 /70 27 /57 27 /63 29 /58
J. Faso 15 /15 15 /13 12 /16 17 /16 na na

Paterson As Gov.
- Now 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/23 12/11 11/13 10/21 9/10
Excellent/good 18% 18% 19% 28% 51% 55% 55% 55% 51%
Fair/poor 81 81 78 69 45 40 41 40 37

Direction Of NY
- Now 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/23 12/11 11/13 10/21 9/30
Right dir. 33% 27% 30% 31% 39% 37% 39% 39% 35%
Wrong dir. 52 57 52 53 42 44 43 41 40

Would You Prefer To See Cuomo Run
For Reelection As AG Or For Gov.?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His
For Gov. 47% 52% 38% 45% 46% 47% 44% 56% 70%
Reelect as AG 33 29 40 35 36 30 35 26 24

If You Got To Choose Who Should Be Gov. Today
Among The Current And Last Three Govs.,
Who Would You Like To See Be Gov. Today?

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 4/15
M. Cuomo 31% 37% 25% 26% 30% 32% 31% 40% 34% 39%
G. Pataki 30 23 45 26 32 28 32 12 20 33
E. Spitzer 21 24 12 24 23 20 21 18 22 14
D. Paterson 11 9 8 18 10 12 10 22 18 8

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