Polling Update: Senate 2010: (FL, NY, NC, ND, WA) Governor 2010: (FL, NY)

SENATE 2010

FLORIDA POLL

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/11-16; surveyed 1,001 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.1%. Subsamples of 433 GOPers and 367 Dems; margins of error +/- 4.7% and +/- 5.1%, respectively (release, 2/18). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-14), Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-13), ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), ex-state House Speaker Allan Bense (R), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17), Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio (D), Rep. Ron Klein (D-22) and state Sen. Dan Gelber (D).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
K. Meek 16%
P. Iorio 16
R. Klein 14
D. Gelber 5
Other 2
Not vote 4
Undec 43

Primary Election Matchups (GOPers)
C. Crist 53%
C. Mack IV 13
V. Buchanan 5
M. Rubio 3
A. Bense 2
Other 2
Not vote 1
Undec 21

C. Mack IV 34%
V. Buchanan 11
M. Rubio 6
A. Bense 4
Other 2
Not vote 5
Undec 38

Fav/Unfav
- All GOP Dem Ind 1/19 11/16
C. Crist 68%/21% 76%/16% 65%/23% 63%/23% 67%/21% 65%/22%
C. Mack IV 34 /13 45 / 7 30 /16 29 /16 37 /12 na
P. Iorio 17 / 5 17 / 8 15 / 3 18 / 5 na na
V. Buchanan 17 /10 22 / 5 13 /12 18 /12 18 / 9 na
R. Klein 12 / 5 4 / 6 20 / 3 11 / 6 11 / 6 n
K. Meek 12 / 6 4 / 7 22 / 5 8 / 6 14 / 6 14 / 8
M. Rubio 12 /18 17 /10 10 /23 10 /20 13 /17 na
A. Bense 8 / 9 9 / 6 5 / 8 9 /14 na na
D. Gelber 4 / 4 4 / 4 5 / 3 4 / 4 na 8 / 3

If Crist Runs For Office In '10, Would You Prefer He Run For Reelection As Gov. Or For U.S. Sen.?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Governor 41% 42% 40% 41% 41% 41%
Senator 22 24 22 19 20 23
Neither 19 15 23 20 22 17
Undec 19 18 15 20 17 20

Crist As Gov.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/19 11/16 9/4 6/1 4/10
Approve 67% 71% 66% 63% 65% 69% 65% 68% 61% 61% 59%
Disapprove 22 21 22 24 23 20 24 18 25 23 25

NEW YORK POLL
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/10-15; surveyed 1,065 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.0%. Subsample of 450 Dems; margin of error +/- 4.6% (release, 2/17). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-04) and Rep. Peter King (R-03).
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
C. McCarthy 34%
K. Gillibrand 24
Other 1
Not vote 2
Undec 39

General Election Matchup
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Upstate NYC Suburbs
K. Gillibrand 42% 11% 66% 37% 39% 44% 46% 42% 33%
P. King 26 56 8 26 30 23 19 25 40
Other 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1
Not vote 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2
Undec 28 30 23 33 26 30 32 27 23

Fav/Unfav
- All GOP Dem Ind 1/25
K. Gillibrand 24%/ 9% 18%/13% 28%/ 8% 24%/ 8% 25%/10%
C. McCarthy 24 / 9 14 /14 35 / 3 22 /11 na
P. King 21 /10 40 / 2 10 /17 21 / 8 na

Gillibrand As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 28% 25% 35% 25% 29% 28%
Disapprove 10 13 10 7 10 10

Schumer As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/12 12/21 8/6 6/12 4/17
Approve 64% 36% 84% 65% 59% 68% 57% 63% 61% 66% 65%
Disapprove 24 49 9 23 29 19 24 22 23 21 18

Paterson Handling Of HRC Replacement Process
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/25
Approve 35% 35% 36% 37% 38% 33% 44%
Disapprove 52 51 53 49 52 53 42

Paterson's Selection Of Gillibrand
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/25
Approve 45% 42% 47% 47% 49% 42% 46%
Disapprove 33 33 35 31 32 34 30



NORTH CAROLINA POLL

A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 2/13-15; surveyed 1,020 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 2/19). Party ID Breakdown: 48%D, 35%R, 17%I. Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), '08 candidate/investment banker Jim Neal (D) and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D).
General Election Matchups
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 46% 51% 42% 19% 83% 47% 53% 23%
C. Cunningham 27 28 27 46 5 21 23 40
Undec 27 21 31 36 12 32 23 37

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Burr 44% 50% 40% 15% 84% 46% 53% 17%
J. Neal 30 31 29 52 5 20 24 49
Undec 26 19 31 33 11 34 23 34

Burr As Sen.
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 1/18
Approve 41% 46% 37% 21% 70% 41% 46% 27% 33%
Disapprove 34 38 31 52 10 33 31 46 30

Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind
J. Neal 15%/26% 26%/14% 4%/43% 7%/24%
C. Cunningham 10 /23 18 /15 2 /35 5 /21

NORTH DAKOTA POLL
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/9-11 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/13). Party ID Breakdown: 38%R, 30%D, 32%I. Tested: Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) and Gov. John Hoeven (R).
General Election Matchup
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
B. Dorgan 57% 53% 61% 87% 23% 69% 61% 54% 58% 55%
J. Hoeven 35 39 31 8 70 19 31 39 33 38
Undec 8 8 8 5 7 12 8 7 9 7

Fav/Unfav
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
J. Hoeven 68%/27% 71%/25% 65%/29% 42%/53% 87%/ 9% 70%/24%
B. Dorgan 67 /30 64 /34 70 /26 87 /11 45 /53 76 /20


WASHINGTON POLL

A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/16-18 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/19). Party ID Breakdown: 37%D, 25%R, 38%I. Tested: Sen. Patty Murray (D), Rep. Dave Reichert (R-08) and AG Rob McKenna (R).
General Election Matchups
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
P. Murray 53% 49% 57% 81% 10% 54% 50% 55% 56% 46%
D. Reichert 40 44 36 11 84 39 43 38 36 49
Undec 7 7 7 8 6 7 7 7 8 5

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
P. Murray 55% 52% 58% 84% 11% 56% 52% 57% 58% 48%
R. McKenna 39 43 35 10 83 38 41 37 36 47
Undec 6 5 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 5

Fav/Unfav
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
P. Murray 55%/40% 51%/47% 59%/33% 73%/22% 27%/67% 56%/40%
D. Reichert 38 /30 43 /28 33 /32 24 /45 62 /10 36 /29
R. McKenna 34 /29 32 /33 36 /25 26 /37 45 /19 35 /28

Governor 2010

Florida

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/11-16; surveyed 1,001 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 2/18). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R).

General Election Matchup
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/19 11/16
C. Crist 48% 78% 22% 46% 51% 46% 47% 50%
Generic Dem 25 7 50 17 21 28 27 28
Undec 27 15 27 37 28 26 27 23

Does Crist Deserve Reelection?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/19 11/16
Yes, deserves 57% 67% 54% 52% 55% 59% 56% 58%
No, doesn't deserve 26 19 32 27 29 24 26 27

If Crist Runs For Office In '10, Would You Prefer He Run For Reelection As Gov. Or For U.S. Sen.?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Governor 41% 42% 40% 41% 41% 41%
Senator 22 24 22 19 20 23
Neither 19 15 23 20 22 17
Undec 19 18 15 20 17 20

Crist As Gov.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/19 11/16 9/4 6/1 4/10
Approve 67% 71% 66% 63% 65% 69% 65% 68% 61% 61% 59%
Disapprove 22 21 22 24 23 20 24 18 25 23 25

The Way Things Are Going In FL Today
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/19 11/16 9/4 6/1
Satisfied 43% 51% 35% 42% 42% 44% 46% 47% 46% 39%
Dissatisfied 55 47 64 57 56 55 54 53 31 58

McCollum As AG
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/19 11/16 6/1 10/07
Approve 48% 62% 38% 44% 49% 47% 51% 51% 52% 44%
Disapprove 17 9 22 21 20 15 16 17 20 17

Sink As CFO
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/19 11/16 6/1 10/07
Approve 32% 30% 39% 26% 32% 31% 39% 35% 33% 38%
Disapprove 22 22 20 25 23 22 18 21 25 15

FL Legislature Job Approval
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/19 11/16 9/4 6/1 4/10
Approve 37% 44% 32% 35% 35% 38% 40% 46% 40% 38% 32%
Disapprove 42 35 48 45 45 39 42 35 41 46 48

NEW YORK POLL
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/10-15; surveyed 1,065 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.0%. Subsample of 450 Dems; margin of error +/- 4.6% (release, 2/17). Tested: Gov. David Paterson (D), AG Andrew Cuomo (D) and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R).
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
A. Cuomo 55%
D. Paterson 23
Other 1
Not vote 1
Undec 20

General Election Matchups
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Upstate NYC Suburbs
D. Paterson 43% 9% 70% 38% 40% 45% 38% 52% 36%
R. Giuliani 43 80 18 47 46 41 47 35 48
Other 2 -- 2 2 3 1 3 1 --
Not vote 2 2 3 1 2 3 2 3 2
Undec 10 9 7 12 10 11 10 8 14

- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Upstate NYC Suburbs
A. Cuomo 51% 11% 81% 45% 46% 54% 44% 61% 48%
R. Giuliani 37 76 11 40 42 34 42 30 41
Other 1 -- 1 2 1 -- 1 1 --
Not vote 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Undec 9 10 6 11 9 9 11 6 10

Fav/Unfav
- All GOP Dem Ind 1/25 1/12
A. Cuomo 61%/15% 46%/26% 78%/ 7% 58%/15% na 57%/10%
R. Giuliani 56 /35 90 / 8 37 /54 56 /34 na na
D. Paterson 41 /35 32 /49 51 /25 37 /37 48%/25% na

Paterson As Gov.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/25 1/12 12/21 8/6 6/12
Approve 45% 35% 53% 45% 48% 42% 50% 53% 53% 64% 56%
Disapprove 41 52 36 38 40 42 30 25 29 14 17

Paterson Handling Of HRC Replacement Process
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/25
Approve 35% 35% 36% 37% 38% 33% 44%
Disapprove 52 51 53 49 52 53 42

Paterson's Selection Of Gillibrand
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/25
Approve 45% 42% 47% 47% 49% 42% 46%
Disapprove 33 33 35 31 32 34 30

Cuomo As AG
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/12 12/21 8/6 6/12 4/17
Approve 76% 65% 86% 76% 76% 76% 69% 72% 68% 69% 65%
Disapprove 11 16 5 10 13 9 16 14 13 15 13

NY Legislature Job Approval
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 1/12 12/21 8/6 6/12 4/17
Approve 32% 27% 39% 27% 28% 35% 28% 30% 26% 29% 32%
Disapprove 50 58 37 60 59 43 54 55 55 55 51