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Thursday, May 27, 2010

Governor 2010

California
A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/24; surveyed 649 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 5/26). Tested: Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-           All Men Wom 2/25
M. Whitman 54% 58% 50% 61%
S. Poizner 19 18 20 11
Other 15 16 14 4
Undec 12 8 16 24

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     2/25
M. Whitman 56%/23% 62%/ 9%
S. Poizner 31 /51 22 /22

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/24; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/26). Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), Poizner and Whitman.

General Election Matchups
-           Now 4/19 3/15 2/15 1/19 11/17 9/24
J. Brown 43% 50% 42% 46% 45% 43% 45%
S. Poizner 42 32 27 34 35 32 32
Other 7 10 13 7 9 7 5
Undec 8 8 18 13 11 18 18

-           Now 4/19 3/15 2/15 1/19 11/17 9/24 1/09
J. Brown 45% 44% 40% 43% 43% 41% 44% 40%
M. Whitman 41 38 40 43 39 41 35% 38
Other 8 9 6 6 7 3 3 5
Undec 7 9 14 8 11 14 18 17

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/19    3/15    2/15    1/19    11/17
J. Brown 53%/42% 51%/42% 46%/44% 53%/41% 49%/40% 48%/41%
M. Whitman 48 /47 47 /43 51 /34 56 /28 48 /30 47 /27
S. Poizner 48 /47 38 /46 29 /47 38 /37 40 /31 36 /26

Connecticut
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 5/24-25; surveyed 379 Dem RVs and 231 GOP RVs; margins of error +/- 5.0% and 6.5%, respectively (release, 5/27). Tested: '06 SEN nominee/businessman Ned Lamont (D), '06 candidate/Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), LG Mike Fedele (R), ex-U.S. Amb. to Ireland Tom Foley (R) and businessman Oz Griebel (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom
N. Lamont 41% 43% 40%
D. Malloy 24 30 19
Other 2 3 2
Not vote 3 3 3
Undec 30 20 37

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-           All Men Wom
T. Foley 37% 37% 37%
M. Fedele 11 13 6
O. Griebel 5 7 1
Other 3 3 2
Not vote 3 3 3
Undec 42 37 49

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-           All     Men     Wom     3/15
N. Lamont 46%/12% 47%/23% 45%/ 6% 43%/13%
D. Malloy 28 / 5 36 / 4 24 / 5 35 / 9

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-           All     Men     Wom     3/15
T. Foley 34%/ 6% 38%/ 9% 30%/ 2% 37%/ 6%
M. Fedele 15 / 6 21 / 7 7 / 5 11 / 8
O. Griebel 10 / 2 11 / 3 8 /-- 5 / 3

Georgia
An InsiderAdvantage (IVR) poll; conducted 5/26; surveyed 428 Dem primary Lvs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (release, 5/27). Tested: Ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), AG Thurbert Baker (D), management technical consultant Bill Bolton (D), educator Carl Camon (D), state Rep. Randal Mangham (D), state House Min. Leader Dubose Porter (D) and '98 candidate/ex-GA Nat'l Guard Adj. Gen. David Poythress (D).

Primary Election Matchup
-             Now 4/6 2/28 4/09
R. Barnes 64% 47% 36% 35%
D. Porter 8 5 3 3
T. Baker 6 18 7 11
C. Camon 5 n/a n/a n/a
D. Poythress 1 6 2 2
R. Mangham 1 n/a n/a n/a
B. Bolton 0 n/a n/a n/a
Other n/a n/a 4 n/a
Undec 15 24 48 49

New Mexico
A KOB-TV poll; conducted 5/23-25 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 1,405 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6%. Subsample of 464 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 5/26). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 50%D, 37%R, 12%I. Tested: State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R), atty Pete Domenici Jr. (R), Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R), PR firm owner/ex-Gov. Johnson mgr. Doug Turner (R), businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R) and LG Diane Denish (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-                All Men Wom
S. Martinez 43% 41% 46%
A. Weh 33 34 32
D. Turner 8 11 6
P. Domenici 8 7 8
J. Arnold-Jones 3 2 3
Undec 5 6 5

General Election Matchups
-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Denish 49% 78% 14% 38% 45% 53%
J. Arnold-Jones 35 11 67 40 41 30
Undec 16 11 19 22 14 17

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Denish 46% 71% 15% 43% 43% 49%
P. Domenici 40 19 70 34 45 36
Undec 14 10 16 24 13 15

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
S. Martinez 49% 23% 83% 50% 53% 45%
D. Denish 43 70 9 38 40 46
Undec 8 7 8 12 7 9

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Denish 50% 79% 14% 40% 47% 53%
D. Turner 36 10 70 37 41 31
Undec 14 11 16 22 12 16

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Denish 47% 77% 11% 36% 44% 50%
A. Weh 42 15 79 45 48 37
Undec 10 9 10 19 8 13

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/27). Tested: '02 candidate/Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (D), '98 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (R) and Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 4/20 3/16 2/17
M. Neumann 44% 46% 46% 44%
T. Barrett 42 46 42 42
Other 6 4 4 4
Undec 8 5 8 10

-           Now 4/20 3/16 2/17
S. Walker 48% 46% 48% 49%
T. Barrett 41 44 42 40
Other 3 3 2 1
Undec 8 7 8 10

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/20    3/16    2/17
S. Walker 52%/30% 48%/33% 55%/28% 55%/29%
M. Neumann 48 /31 53 /31 53 /27 49 /31
T. Barrett 48 /36 40 /46 53 /34 49 /36

A Tarrance Group (R) poll; conducted 5/16-17 for GOPAC (R); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 5/27).

Barrett As Milwaukee Mayor
Approve     39%
Disapprove 23

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