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Monday, April 12, 2010

Senate 2010

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/8; surveyed 500 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/12). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Primary Election Matchup
-           Now 3/18 2/18 1/27 12/14 10/20 8/17
M. Rubio 57% 56% 54% 49% 43% 35% 31%
C. Crist 28 34 36 37 43 49 53
Other 3 1 4 3 5 4 5
Undec 12 8 7 11 9 12 11

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/18    2/18    1/27    12/14   10/20
M. Rubio 72%/19% 65%/19% 67%/15% 67%/14% 64%/15% 55%/22%
C. Crist 55 /44 59 /40 54 /44 62 /37 61 /38 67 /32

Georgia
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/5-7; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/9). Party ID breakdown: 41%R, 37%D, 22%I. Tested: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R), AG Thurbert Baker (D) and Labor Commis. Michael Thurmond (D).

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
J. Isakson 50% 10% 86% 51% 55% 45% 67% 3%
T. Baker 34 72 4 26 31 37 19 74
Undec 16 18 10 23 14 18 14 23

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
J. Isakson 53% 14% 87% 55% 57% 49% 72% 3%
M. Thurmond 26 56 4 17 23 29 11 65
Undec 21 30 9 28 20 22 17 32

Re-Elect Isakson?
-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Re-elect him 46% 12% 78% 44% 52% 40%
Consider another 31 40 17 41 29 33
Replace him 23 48 5 15 19 27

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/09
J. Isakson 54%/38% 31%/61% 76%/18% 52%/36% 47%/41%
T. Baker 41 /25 71 /12 16 /40 37 /21 39 /22
M. Thurmond 23 /11 37 / 5 11 /18 22 / 8 n/a

Nevada
A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 4/5-7 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research; surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversample of 300 GOP primary regular voters; margin of error +/- 5.7% (releases, 4/9-11). Party ID breakdown: 43%D, 37%R, 20%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), state Sen. Mark Amodei (R), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), Guaranteed Financial Services pres. Gary Bernstein (R), Wall St. banker John Chachas (R), Assemb. Chad Christensen (R), ex-state GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), ex-Assemb. Min. Leader Garn Mabey (R), real estate investor Gary Marinch (R), Brian Nadell (R), project mgr./USMC vet Bill Parson (R), Cecilia Stern (R), Terry Suominen (R), '06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R) and Tea Party candidate/businessman Scott Ashjian.

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-               Now 2/24 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
S. Lowden 45% 47% 26% 25% 23% 14%
D. Tarkanian 27 29 28 24 21 33
S. Angle 5 8 13 13 9 5
C. Christensen 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
J. Chachas 3 1 -- 1 -- --
B. Parson -- -- -- 1 1 n/a
G. Bernstein -- n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
G. Mabey -- n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
G. Marinch -- n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
B. Nadell -- n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
C. Stern -- n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
T. Suominen -- n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Others n/a n/a 1 3 2 1
Undec 16 15 32 33 44 47

General Election Matchups
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
S. Lowden 46% 16% 80% 46% 50% 42%
H. Reid 38 71 4 29 31 45
S. Ashjian 5 3 5 12 7 3
Undec 11 10 11 13 12 10

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Tarkanian 39% 10% 73% 38% 47% 31%
H. Reid 39 71 4 35 31 47
S. Ashjian 11 10 10 14 15 7
Undec 11 9 13 13 7 15

Fav/Unfav
-               Now     2/24    1/7     12/2    10/8
S. Lowden 40%/24% 36%/17% 32%/17% 33%/13% 31%/15%
H. Reid 34 /56 33 /51 33 /52 38 /49 38 /50
D. Tarkanian 28 /22 30 /17 33 /16 32 /12 30 /11
S. Angle 20 /19 19 / 9 21 /11 n/a n/a
J. Chachas 9 / 6 n/a n/a n/a n/a
C. Christensen 7 / 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
S. Ashjian 1 /13 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
S. Lowden       54%/14%
D. Tarkanian 46 /12
S. Angle 22 /15
C. Christensen 13 / 1
J. Chachas 12 / 8

The Tea Party Movement Recently Held A Rally In Reid's Hometown Of Searchlight
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 52% 36% 70% 55% 58% 46%
Disapprove 25 38 8 29 20 30

New Hampshire
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/7; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/9). Tested: Ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), businessman Bill Binnie (R), '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Rep. Paul Hodes (D-02).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 3/8 2/10 1/12 9/14
K. Ayotte 50% 47% 46% 49% 46%
P. Hodes 35 37 39 40 38
Other 4 4 3 3 5
Undec 11 12 13 12 8

-              Now 3/8 2/10 1/12 
B. Binnie 49% 46% 42% 37
P. Hodes 37 36 41 43
Other 4 4 3 5
Undec 10 14 13 15

-              Now 3/8 2/10 1/12
O. Lamontagne 44% 38% 38% 38%
P. Hodes 39 42 44 45
Other 7 5 4 6
Undec 11 15 13 11

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     3/8     2/10    1/12    9/14
K. Ayotte 61%/19% 60%/22% 57%/21% 60%/21% 58%/21%
B. Binnie 51 /28 47 /26 45 /22 34 /29 n/a
P. Hodes 45 /46 46 /42 49 /42 49 /38 46 /38
O. Lamontagne 38 /31 33 /33 35 /31 38 /35 n/a

Ohio
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/5-7 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsample of 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/9). Party ID breakdown: 38%D, 35%R, 27%I. Tested: Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D), LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-Rep./ex-OMB dir. Rob Portman (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom 7/8
L. Fisher 35% 39% 32% 22%
J. Brunner 26 23 28 17
Undec 39 38 40 61

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 7/8
L. Fisher 43% 77% 6% 41% 39% 47% 42%
R. Portman 39 7 74 39 44 34 35
Undec 18 16 20 20 17 19 23

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 7/8
J. Brunner 41% 76% 5% 38% 37% 45% 40%
R. Portman 40 8 75 40 46 34 36
Undec 18 16 20 20 17 19 24

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     7/8
L. Fisher 41%/24% 63%/12% 20%/38% 38%/23% 36%/16%
R. Portman 39 /30 21 /46 61 /10 37 /33 29 / 9
J. Brunner 38 /26 60 /14 15 /41 36 /24 33 /17

Pennsylvania
A Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll; conducted 3/29-4/7; surveyed 494 adults; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Subsample of 402 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/12). Party reg. breakdown: 40%D, 36%R, 13%I. Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

General Election Matchups (LVs)
P. Toomey      47%            P. Toomey      33%
A. Specter 40 J. Sestak 22
Neither/other 4 Neither/other 11
Undec 9 Undec 34

Fav/Unfav
A. Specter     41%/52%
P. Toomey 30 /18
J. Sestak 24 /14

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