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Monday, April 12, 2010

Governor 2010

Georgia
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/5-7; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/9). Party ID breakdown: 41%R, 37%D, 22%I. Tested: AG Thurbert Baker (D), ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), Rep. Nathan Deal (R-09), Sec/State Karen Handel (R) and Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R).

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
N. Deal 48% 8% 84% 47% 53% 43% 65% 3%
T. Baker 35 75 4 28 32 38 20 75
Undec 17 17 12 25 15 19 15 22

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 4/09
J. Oxendine 48% 8% 84% 47% 52% 44% 65% 3% 47%
T. Baker 36 75 4 32 33 39 21 76 42
Undec 16 17 12 21 15 17 14 21 11

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 4/09
K. Handel 49% 9% 84% 49% 53% 45% 66% 3% 40%
T. Baker 35 74 4 30 33 37 20 75 42
Undec 16 17 12 21 14 18 14 22 18

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
R. Barnes 44% 83% 8% 46% 39% 49% 30% 82%
N. Deal 42 6 77 37 46 38 56 3
Undec 14 11 15 17 15 13 14 15

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 4/09
R. Barnes 44% 83% 8% 46% 40% 48% 30% 82% 45%
K. Handel 43 7 78 38 47 39 57 4 39
Undec 13 10 14 16 13 13 13 14 16

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 4/09
R. Barnes 45% 84% 9% 47% 41% 49% 31% 82% 44%
J. Oxendine 42 6 77 37 47 37 56 4 46
Undec 13 10 14 16 12 14 13 14 10

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/09
J. Oxendine 49%/36% 26%/59% 71%/15% 47%/38% 44%/35%
R. Barnes 48 /38 77 /14 23 /60 46 /37 45 /35
J. Handel 43 /35 18 /60 67 /12 41 /36 39 /21
T. Baker 41 /25 71 /12 16 /40 37 /21 39 /22
N. Deal 40 /33 13 /57 65 /12 39 /32 n/a

Nevada
A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 4/5-7 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research; surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversample of 300 GOP primary regular voters; margin of error +/- 5.7% (releases, 4/9-11). Party ID breakdown: 43%D, 37%R, 20%I. Tested: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), Tony Atwood (R), '02/'06 candidate/'98 LG candidate/ret. postal worker Stan Lusak (R), ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R), ex-U.S. District Judge/ex-NV AG/ex-NV Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R) and Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             Now 2/24 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
B. Sandoval 39% 37% 39% 39% 41% 33%
J. Gibbons 25 30 23 18 20 17
M. Montandon 7 9 7 6 4 3
T. Atwood -- n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
S. Lusak -- n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Others n/a n/a n/a -- -- 1
Undec 29 24 31 37 35 46

General Election Matchups
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/24 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
R. Reid 42% 72% 8% 39% 35% 49% 42% 43% 48% 49% 47%
J. Gibbons 40 14 68 42 50 30 38 36 34 37 35
Undec 18 14 24 19 15 21 20 21 18 14 18

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/24 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
B. Sandoval 50% 21% 85% 50% 57% 43% 51% 53% 49% 50% 49%
R. Reid 35 62 6 33 29 41 29 31 34 33 32
Undec 15 17 9 17 14 16 20 16 17 17 19

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     2/24    1/7     12/2    10/8    6/19
B. Sandoval 34%/12% 33%/ 7% 36%/ 5% 39%/ 6% 38%/ 7% n/a
R. Reid 21 /33 22 /36 25 /35 23 /28 21 /29 n/a
J. Gibbons 15 /54 17 /51 18 /53 19 /50 15 /54 10%/57%

New Hampshire
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/7; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/9). Tested: Gov. John Lynch (D), activist/businessman Jack Kimball (R), '02/'08 NH-01 candidate/ex-HHS Commis. John Stephen (R) and conservative think-tank founder Karen Testerman (R).

General Election Matchups
-             Now 3/8 1/12 9/14
J. Lynch 50% 51% 52% 52%
J. Kimball 34 32 31 31
Other 4 3 4 6
Undec 12 13 12 10

-             Now 3/8
J. Lynch 47% 50%
J. Stephen 37 35
Other 5 2
Undec 11 14

-             Now 3/8 1/12
J. Lynch 50% 54% 53%
K. Testerman 33 28 30
Other 6 5 5
Undec 11 14 12

Lynch As Gov.
-             Now 3/8 2/10 1/12 9/14
Approve 59% 63% 60% 58% 64%
Disapprove 39 36 39 38 34

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     3/8     1/12    9/12
J. Lynch 60%/35% 59%/37% 59%/38% 63%/33%
J. Kimball 36 /26 27 /25 31 /28 28 /27
J. Stephen 36 /27 32 /30 n/a n/a
K. Testerman 31 /27 22 /30 33 /30 n/a

Ohio
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 4/5-7 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 4/9). Party ID breakdown: 38%D, 35%R, 27%I. Tested: Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 7/8
T. Strickland 45% 80% 7% 43% 42% 49% 44%
J. Kasich 40 7 76 40 46 34 39
Undec 15 13 17 17 13 17 17

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     7/8
T. Strickland 47%/41% 72%/20% 24%/64% 43%/41% 44%/40%
J. Kasich 42 /28 23 /47 66 / 9 40 /25 31 /12

Pennsylvania
A Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll; conducted 3/29-4/7; surveyed 402 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/12). Party reg. breakdown: 40%D, 36%R, 13%I. Tested: AG Tom Corbett (R), '04 SEN nominee/Montgomery Co. Commis./ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D), Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D) and Aud. Jack Wagner (D).

General Election Matchups
T. Corbett  45%
J. Hoeffel 11
Undec 44

T. Corbett  42%
D. Onorato 18
Undec 40

T. Corbett  44%
J. Wagner 16
Undec 40

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