ALABAMA
A Capital Survey Research Center poll; conducted 10/15-16 and 10/21; surveyed 606 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Gordon, Birmingham News, 10/22).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 10/7 9/9 8/4
J. McCain 54% 55% 55% 47%
B. Obama 34 35 35 34
CALIFORNIA
A Public Policy Institute of CA poll; conducted 10/12-19; surveyed 2,004 adults; margin of error +/- 2.2%. Subsample of 1,186 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup (LVs)
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom His Wht 9/16 8/16 7/22
Obama/Biden 56% 89% 14% 53% 50% 62% 73% 49% 50% 48% 50%
McCain/Palin 33 7 75 25 37 30 18 39 40 39 35
Other 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 3 2
Undec 9 3 9 20 10 7 8 10 7 10 13
FLORIDA
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 10/16-21; surveyed 1,433 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 9/29 9/26 9/9 8/24 7/29
B. Obama 49% 11% 85% 51% 46% 51% 51% 49% 43% 43% 46%
J. McCain 44 84 10 39 45 42 43 43 50 47 44
Other 1 -- 1 2 2 -- 1 1 1 2 2
Undec 7 5 4 8 7 6 5 7 6 8 7
ILLINOIS
A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 572 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 9/17
Obama/Biden 61% 53%
McCain/Palin 32 37
Other 2 2
Undec 4 6
INDIANA
A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 586 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 9/17
Obama/Biden 51% 43%
McCain/Palin 42 47
Other 1 2
Undec 3 5
IOWA
A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 586 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 9/17
Obama/Biden 52% 45%
McCain/Palin 39 45
Other 2 2
Undec 6 7
MICHGIAN
A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 562 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 9/17
Obama/Biden 58% 48%
McCain/Palin 36 44
Other 1 1
Undec 3 6
MINNESOTA
A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 583 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 9/17
Obama/Biden 57% 47%
McCain/Palin 38 45
Other 1 2
Undec 2 5
NEVADA
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 911 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 700 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 10/22).
WH '08 General Election Matchups
- Now 9/30 8/26
- RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs
B. Obama 54% 51% 54% 51% 49%
J. McCain 41 46 43 47 44
Neither 4 1 2 1 6
Other 1 1 * * 1
Undec * * * 1 1
- Now 9/30 8/26
- RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs
B. Obama 51% 49% 51% 49% 41%
J. McCain 40 43 39 44 41
R. Nader 3 3 5 4 6
B. Barr 2 2 1 1 5
C. McKinney 1 * 1 * 3
None 2 * 1 1 3
Other 1 1 1 * *
Undec * * 1 1 2
NORTH CAROLINA
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 940 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 644 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/22).
WH '08 General Election Matchups
- Now 10/6 9/16
- RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs
Obama/Biden 51% 51% 50% 49% 47%
McCain/Palin 46 47 49 49 48
Neither 1 1 2 1 3
Other * * * * 1
Undec 1 1 * * 1
- Now 10/6 9/16
- RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs
B. Obama 51% 51% 49% 49% 45%
J. McCain 44 46 48 48 46
B. Barr 3 2 2 2 2
None 1 * 1 1 2
Other * * * * 4
Undec 1 1 * * 1
OHIO
A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 564 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 9/17
Obama/Biden 53% 46%
McCain/Palin 41 45
Other 2 2
Undec 3 5
OHIO
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 10/16-21; surveyed 1,360 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.7% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 9/29 9/26 9/9 8/24 7/29
B. Obama 52% 9% 85% 50% 46% 58% 50% 49% 49% 44% 46%
J. McCain 38 85 8 37 44 33 42 42 44 43 44
Other 1 -- 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1
Undec 8 5 5 11 8 8 7 8 5 11 8
OHIO
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 938 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 737 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 10/22).
WH '08 General Election Matchups
- Now 10/6 9/16 9/2
- RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs RVs
Obama/Biden 51% 50% 50% 50% 49% 47%
McCain/Palin 45 46 46 47 47 45
Neither 2 2 3 2 2 5
Other 1 1 * * * 1
Undec 1 1 1 1 2 2
- Now 10/6 9/16 9/2
- RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs RVs
B. Obama 50% 49% 47% 48% 46% 45%
J. McCain 43 44 44 45 44 44
R. Nader 3 3 3 3 4 5
B. Barr 2 2 2 2 2 2
C. McKinney * * 1 * * 1
None 1 1 2 1 1 3
Other * * * * 1 *
Undec 1 1 1 1 1 1
PENNSYLVANIA
A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 566 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 9/17
Obama/Biden 52% 45%
McCain/Palin 42 45
Other 1 1
Undec 3 7
PENNSYLVANIA
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 10/16-21; surveyed 1,425 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.6% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 9/29 9/26 9/9 8/24 7/29
B. Obama 53% 13% 87% 55% 47% 59% 54% 49% 48% 49% 49%
J. McCain 40 81 9 35 45 35 39 43 45 42 42
Other 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
Undec 5 4 3 7 5 6 6 7 6 9 8
PENNSYLVANIA
An Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll; conducted 10/18-22; surveyed 602 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/23). Party ID Breakdown: 52%D, 42%R, 6%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 10/21 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16 10/15
B. Obama 52% 52% 52% 53% 52% 52% 53% 53%
J. McCain 42 41 42 41 40 39 39 37
Other 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3
Undec 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 7
VIRGINIA
A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 10/20-21; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/22).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 10/1 9/22
Obama/Biden 47% 82% 11% 49% 43% 51% 36% 92% 45% 44%
McCain/Palin 45 12 83 38 48 42 55 3 48 47
Other -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Undec 8 6 6 13 9 7 9 5 7 8
VIRGINIA
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 927 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 647 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 10/22).
WH '08 General Election Matchups
- Now 10/14 9/30 9/9
- RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs LVs RVs
Obama/Biden 54% 54% 53% 53% 54% 53% 46%
McCain/Palin 42 44 43 43 42 44 50
Neither 2 1 2 2 3 2 3
Other * * 1 1 * * 1
Undec 1 * 1 1 1 * 1
WEST VIRGINIA
A WV Wesleyan College poll; conducted 10/20-21 by Orion Strategies; surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/22).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
J. McCain 49%
B. Obama 44
Neither 4
Undec 3
WEST VIRGINIA
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll; conducted 10/19-21; surveyed 893 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 674 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 10/22).
WH '08 General Election Matchups
- Now 9/23
- RVs LVs RVs LVs
McCain/Palin 51% 53% 50% 50%
Obama/Biden 44 44 44 46
Neither 2 2 4 3
Other 1 1 1 1
Undec 1 1 1 *
- Now 9/23
- RVs LVs RVs LVs
J. McCain 51% 53% 47% 49%
B. Obama 41 41 41 44
R. Nader 4 2 6 5
C. McKinney 1 1 1 1
None 2 1 3 2
Other * * * *
Undec 1 1 1 *
WISCONSIN
A Big Ten Battleground poll; conducted 10/19-22 by the Univ. of WI; surveyed 584 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/23).
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 9/17
Obama/Biden 53% 45%
McCain/Palin 41 44
Other -- 1
Undec 4 7
WISCONSIN
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/20-21 for WISC-TV; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/22). Party ID Breakdown: 37%D, 32%R, 31%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind 10/6 9/25
Obama/Biden 52% 47% 57% 86% 11% 54% 51% 49%
McCain/Palin 41 46 36 7 82 39 41 43
Other 4 5 3 3 4 5 na na
Undec 3 2 4 5 3 2 na na
SENATE
KENTUCKY
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/19-21 for the Lexington Herald-Leader; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 10/23). Tested: Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and '03/'07 GOV candidate/businessman Bruce Lunsford (D).
General Election Matchup
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 10/16 9/17
M. McConnell 47% 51% 43% 15% 87% 46% 53% 5% 46% 50%
B. Lunsford 43 40 46 75 6 40 39 73 42 37
Undec 10 9 11 10 9 14 8 22 12 13
Fav/Unfav
- Now 10/16 9/17 7/30
M. McConnell 48%/48% 47%/46% 51%/43% 49%/41%
B. Lunsford 47 /45 48 /45 47 /44 44 /42
McConnell As Sen.
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
Approve 45% 50% 40% 23% 72% 41%
Disapprove 46 43 49 68 19 49
NEW JERSEY
A Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey Poll; conducted 10/15-18; surveyed 900 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Subsample of 723 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.6% (release, 10/22). Tested: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) and '96 nominee/ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer (R).
General Election Matchup
- Now 9/14 7/21
- All LVs Dem Ind GOP Men Wom All LVs All LVs
F. Lautenberg 51% 52% 84% 42% 15% 51% 52% 46% 46% 44% 45%
D. Zimmer 32 36 5 33 77 36 28 33 36 34 37
Other 2 2 1 5 1 1 4 5 5 7 6
Not vote 4 3 3 4 3 5 2 1 1 1 1
Undec 11 8 8 15 4 7 14 16 14 13 11
Fav/Unfav
- All LVs Dem Ind GOP
F. Lautenberg 45%/24% 48%/26% 68%/ 6% 39%/25% 21%/55%
D. Zimmer 28 /16 31 /16 12 /24 27 /13 58 / 8
Lautenberg As Sen.
- All LVs Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 7/21 4/08 1/08
Approve 48% 49% 66% 44% 24% 46% 50% 45% 48% 43%
Disapprove 28 32 10 31 57 32 25 33 31 28
Lautenberg Is Too Old To Be An Effective Sen.
- All LVs Dem Ind GOP Men Wom 9/14 7/21 4/08 1/08
Agree 29% 33% 21% 27% 42% 34% 25% 31% 31% 41% 34%
Disagree 61 59 68 63 51 59 63 57 54 46 51
HOUSE
ME-01
A Pan Atlantic SMS Group poll; conducted 10/13-16; surveyed 207 LVs; margin of error +/- 6.8% (release, 10/22). Tested: Iraq vet/ex-Small Business Admin regional chief Charles Summers (R) and '02 SEN nominee Chellie Pingree (D).
General Election Matchup
C. Pingree 43
C. Summers 32
Undec 25
ME-02
A Pan Atlantic SMS Group poll; conducted 10/13-16; surveyed 193 LVs; margin of error +/- 7.1% (release, 10/22). Tested: Rep. Michael Michaud (D) and Farmington Selectman John Frary (R).
General Election Matchup
M. Michaud 60%
J. Frary 26
Undec 14
MI-09
A Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 10/21 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23). Tested: ex-MI lottery commissioner/state Sen. Gary Peters (D), Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) and assisted suicide advocate Jack Kevorkian (I).
General Election Matchup
- Now 10/5
G. Peters 46% 46%
J. Knollenberg 36 37
J. Kevorkian 2 2
OH-15
A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll; conducted 10/19-20 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23). Tested: '06 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy (D), state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) and pro-life activist Don Elijah Eckhart (I).
General Election Matchup
- Now 10/1
M. Kilroy 44% 44%
S. Stivers 36 36
D. Eckhart 8 7
WH '08 General Election Matchup
- Now 10/1
B. Obama 51% 46%
J. McCain 39 39
PA-12
A Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) poll; conducted 10/21; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/23). Tested: Rep. John Murtha (D) and vet/ex-army lieutenant colonel William Russell (R).
General Election Matchup
J. Murtha 46%
W. Russell 41
Other 4
Undec 8
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