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Monday, June 7, 2010

Senate 2010

Arkansas
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 6/2-4; surveyed 600 Dem primary runoff LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/4). Tested: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) and LG Bill Halter (D). (Ed. note: Daily Kos has endorsed Halter and is encouraging its readers to support his campaign.)

Primary Runoff Election Matchup
-           All Men Wom Wht Blk AR-01 AR-02 AR-03 AR-04 5/26
B. Halter 49% 45% 52% 47% 61% 41% 57% 50% 48% 47%
B. Lincoln 45 49 42 48 27 53 34 46 47 44
Undec 6 6 6 5 12 6 9 4 5 9

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Men     Wom     5/26    5/12    4/28
B. Halter 61%/24% 55%/28% 65%/51% 63%/21% 65%/17% 66%/14%
B. Lincoln 56 /37 60 /33 53 /40 59 /36 61 /35 59 /33

California
A Field Poll; conducted 5/27-6/2; surveyed 511 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 6/5). Tested: '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, Assemb. Chuck DeVore and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO/McCain Victory '08 chair Carly Fiorina.

Primary Election Matchup
-            All Men Wom 3/15 1/17
C. Fiorina 37% 36% 38% 22% 25%
T. Campbell 22 23 21 28 30
C. DeVore 19 23 14 9 6
Other/undec 22 18 27 41 39

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     3/15    1/17    10/6
C. Fiorina 57%/12% 24%/17% 20%/10% 16%/10%
T. Campbell 45 /19 31 /13 26 /11 25 /15
C. DeVore 41 / 8 11 /11 8 /11 7 /11

Which Candidate Has The Better Chance Of Defeating Boxer In The Nov. General Election?
C. Fiorina   42%
T. Campbell 22
C. DeVore 12
Undec 24

Indiana
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/2-3; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/4). Tested: Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) and Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-08).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 5/6 4/14 3/18 2/17
D. Coats 47% 51% 54% 49% 46%
B. Ellsworth 33 36 33 34 32
Other 7 6 5 6 7
Undec 14 8 9 12 15

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     5/6     4/14    3/18    2/17
D. Coats 56%/25% 57%/27% 61%/21% 53%/30% 54%/27%
B. Ellsworth 37 /33 43 /35 40 /37 43 /33 35 /29

Nevada
A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 6/1-3 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversample of 500 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/6). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 43%D, 38%R, 19%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), Wall St. banker John Chachas (R), Assemb. Chad Christensen (R), ex-state GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R) and '06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-               All Men Wom 5/26 5/11 4/7 2/24 1/7 12/2 10/8
S. Angle 32% 32% 32% 29% 25% 5% 8% 13% 13% 9%
D. Tarkanian 24 28 19 23 22 27 29 28 24 21
S. Lowden 23 21 25 30 30 45 47 26 25 23
C. Christensen 3 4 2 3 2 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
J. Chachas 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 -- 1 --
Others 1 1 1 2 n/a n/a n/a 1 4 3
None of these 2 3 1 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 13 9 18 8 18 16 15 32 33 44

General Election Matchups
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/26 2/24 1/7
S. Angle 44% 12% 81% 41% 50% 38% 39% 44% 45%
H. Reid 41 73 6 37 37 45 42 42 40
Others 3 2 2 6 3 1 5 n/a n/a
None 6 5 6 11 8 4 4 n/a n/a
Undec 8 8 8 9 6 10 10 14 15

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/26 4/14 4/7 2/24 1/7
H. Reid 42% 75% 5% 39% 36% 48% 39% 37% 38% 39% 40%
S. Lowden 41 9 79 37 45 37 42 47 46 52 50
Others 2 1 2 3 3 1 3 5 5 n/a n/a
None 6 5 6 11 8 4 6 3 n/a n/a n/a
Undec 9 10 8 10 8 10 10 8 11 9 10

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 5/26 4/7 2/24 1/7
D. Tarkanian 46% 16% 82% 44% 52% 40% 42% 39% 51% 49%
H. Reid 39 70 5 35 35 43 41 39 40 41
Others 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 11 n/a n/a
None of these 3 3 2 5 3 3 3 n/a n/a n/a
Undec 10 9 9 13 8 12 10 11 9 10

Fav/Unfav
-               Now     5/26    4/14    4/7     2/24
D. Tarkanian 41%/23% 31%/17% n/a 28%/22% 30%/17%
S. Angle 38 /25 29 /23 n/a 20 /19 19 / 9
S. Lowden 38 /37 41 /28 45%/23% 40 /24 36 /17
H. Reid 35 /52 37 /49 33 /54 34 /56 33 /51

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-               Now     5/26    5/11    4/7
S. Angle 48%/20% 41%/13% 38%/11% 22%/15%
D. Tarkanian 45 /16 44 / 7 42 /12 46 /12
S. Lowden 40 /30 45 /22 46 /21 54 /14
C. Christensen 18 /10 n/a 16 / 5 13 / 1
J. Chachas 17 /14 n/a 13 / 9 12 / 8

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