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Monday, June 7, 2010

Governor 2010

Iowa
A Des Moines Register poll; conducted 6/1-3 by Selzer & Co.; surveyed 501 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/5). Tested: Ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R), state Rep. Rod Roberts (R) and '02 candidate/'06 LG nominee Bob Vander Plaats (R).

Primary Election Matchup
T. Branstad       57%
B. Vander Plaats 29
R. Roberts 8
Undec 6

Fav/Unfav
T. Branstad       75%/21%
B. Vander Plaats 47 /19
R. Roberts 29 /11

Which Candidate Stands Out As Having The Best Experience To Do The Job?
T. Branstad       75%
B. Vander Plaats 13
R. Roberts 4
None of these 2
Undec 6

Which Candidate Stands Out As Best Able To Defeat Culver In The Nov. General Election?
T. Branstad       69%
B. Vander Plaats 17
R. Roberts 5
None of these 3
Undec 6

Which Candidate Stands Out As Having The Best Ideas For Bringing New Jobs To IA?
T. Branstad       52%
B. Vander Plaats 22
R. Roberts 7
None of these 3
Undec 16

Which Candidate Stands Out As Best Able To Cut The Amount Iowans Pay In Taxes?
T. Branstad       48%
B. Vander Plaats 23
R. Roberts 8
None of these 4
Undec 17

Which Candidate Stands Out As Best Able To Curb Gov't Spending?
T. Branstad       48%
B. Vander Plaats 27
R. Roberts 8
None of these 3
Undec 14

Which Candidate Stands Out As Most Committed To Making Decisions For Common Good That May Not Be Popular?
T. Branstad       48%
B. Vander Plaats 29
R. Roberts 8
None of these 2
Undec 13

Which Candidate Stands Out As Having The Freshest Iseas And New Approaches To IA's Problems?
T. Branstad       40%
B. Vander Plaats 34
R. Roberts 11
None of these 3
Undec 12

If Your Choice Is Not The Nominee, How Likely Is It You Will Support The Winner Of The Primary Against Culver In Nov.?
Definitely vote for GOP candidate          50%
Probably vote for GOP candidate 25
Might or might not vote for GOP candidate 10
Probably will not vote for GOP candidate 8
Undec/no candidate choice 7

Nevada
A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 6/1-3 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversample of 500 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/5). Tested: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R), ex-U.S. District Judge/ex-NV AG/ex-NV Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R) and Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 5/11 4/7 2/24 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
B. Sandoval 47% 41% 54% 45% 39% 37% 39% 39% 41% 33%
J. Gibbons 33 41 24 27 25 30 23 18 20 17
M. Montandon 6 6 6 6 7 9 7 6 4 3
Others 1 1 1 1 -- n/a n/a -- -- 1
Undec 12 10 14 21 29 24 31 37 35 46

General Election Matchups
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/7 2/24 1/7 12/2 10/8
R. Reid 44% 77% 7% 44% 38% 50% 42% 42% 43% 48% 49%
J. Gibbons 38 11 71 35 46 30 40 38 36 34 37
Other 2 1 3 3 1 2 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
None 5 4 6 7 6 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 11 7 13 11 9 14 18 20 21 18 14

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/7 2/24 1/7 12/2 10/8
B. Sandoval 51% 19% 84% 57% 56% 46% 50% 51% 53% 49% 50%
R. Reid 37 68 5 31 34 40 35 29 31 34 33
Other 1 1 1 1 1 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
None 1 2 -- 2 1 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Undec 10 10 10 9 8 12 15 20 16 17 17

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     4/7     2/24    1/7     12/2    10/8
B. Sandoval 44%/20% 34%/12% 33%/ 7% 36%/ 5% 39%/ 6% 38%/ 7%
R. Reid 29 /37 21 /33 22 /36 25 /35 23 /28 21 /29
J. Gibbons 27 /47 15 /54 17 /51 18 /53 19 /50 15 /54

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-             Now     5/11
B. Sandoval 49%/15% 43%/13%
J. Gibbons 33 /38 33 /41
M. Montandon 17 / 8 19 / 5

New Mexico
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/3; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/4). Tested: LG Diane Denish (D) and Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 5/25 3/24
S. Martinez 44% 42% 32%
D. Denish 42 43 51
Other 4 3 7
Undec 10 12 10

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     5/25    3/24
S. Martinez 55%/34% 57%/29% 30%/29%
D. Denish 51 /41 53 /41 55 /43

Pennsylvania
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/2; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/5). Tested: AG Tom Corbett (R) and Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D).

General Election Matchup
-           Now 5/19 4/15 3/16 2/10 12/10
T. Corbett 49% 49% 45% 46% 52% 44%
D. Onorato 33 36 36 29 26 28
Other 5 4 8 7 5 7
Undec 13 10 11 17 17 21

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     5/19    4/15    3/16    2/10    12/10
T. Corbett 59%/25% 57%/26% 56%/29% 59%/33% 67%/15% 59%/18%
D. Onorato 45 /35 46 /32 41 /32 36 /36 34 /35 30 /32

South Carolina
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 6/5-6; surveyed 998 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 6/6). Tested: Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-03), LG André Bauer (R), state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and AG Henry McMaster (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-            All Men Wom 5/23
N. Haley 43% 47% 39% 39%
G. Barrett 23 22 24 16
H. McMaster 16 16 15 18
A. Bauer 12 11 13 13
Undec 7 5 9 14

Primary Runoff Election Matchups
-            All Men Wom
N. Haley 51% 56% 46%
G. Barrett 35 31 39
Undec 14 12 15

-            All Men Wom
N. Haley 62% 66% 58%
A. Bauer 26 24 29
Undec 12 10 13

-            All Men Wom
N. Haley 54% 58% 49%
H. McMaster 35 34 35
Undec 12 8 15

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Men     Wom     5/23
N. Haley 58%/23% 63%/20% 53%/26% 47%/13%
H. McMaster 45 /28 48 /28 42 /28 43 /22
G. Barrett 44 /19 41 /25 48 /13 28 /18
A. Bauer 29 /52 25 /55 33 /49 26 /49

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