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Thursday, June 3, 2010

Governor 2010

Iowa
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/25-27; surveyed 1,277 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.7% (release, 6/3). Party ID breakdown: 38%R, 37%D, 26%I. Tested: Gov. Chet Culver (D), ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R), state Rep. Rod Roberts (R) and '02 candidate/'06 LG nominee Bob Vander Plaats (R).

General Election Matchups
-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
T. Branstad 52% 20% 85% 49% 53% 51%
C. Culver 37 71 7 33 39 36
Undec 11 9 8 19 9 13

-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
R. Roberts 40% 10% 72% 35% 43% 36%
C. Culver 38 74 7 32 40 37
Undec 22 15 21 33 17 27

-                 All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Vander Plaats 43% 10% 77% 42% 46% 41%
C. Culver 38 75 5 33 40 35
Undec 19 15 19 25 15 23

Culver As Gov.
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Approve 28% 56% 4% 22% 30% 27%
Disapprove 56 26 84 59 56 56

Fav/Unfav
-                 All     Dem     GOP     Ind
T. Branstad 42%/37% 23%/57% 62%/17% 39%/37%
B. Vander Plaats 28 /30 13 /43 45 /18 22 /28
R. Roberts 15 /19 11 /28 21 /14 14 /15

Maine
A ME Center for Public Opinion (R) poll; conducted 5/22-6/2 for '06 candidate/state Sen. Peter Mills (R); surveyed 915 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 6/3). Tested: Mills, atty/Sen. Collins ex-CoS/mgr. Steve Abbott (R), ex-Husson Univ. pres./CEO Bill Beardsley (R), businessman Matt Jacobson (R), Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R), businessman/ex-Boston Red Sox vice chair Les Otten (R) and businessman Bruce Poliquin (R).

Primary Election Matchup
P. Mills      22%
L. Otten 17
S. Abbott 14
P. LePage 11
B. Beardsley 6
B. Poliquin 5
M. Jacobson 1
Undec 24

Michigan
An EPIC-MRA poll; conducted 5/22-26 for the Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV/WILX-TV/WJRT-TV; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversamples of 400 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.9% for each (release, 6/2). Tested: Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D), state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D), Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R), AG Mike Cox (R), state Sen. Tom George (R), Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-02) and ex-business exec. Rick Snyder (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
A. Dillon    29%
V. Bernero 23
Undec 48

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            Now 3/31 2/25 1/26 10/15
P. Hoekstra 30% 27% 27% 25% 29%
M. Cox 18 21 21 32 28
R. Snyder 17 15 12 3 3
M. Bouchard 16 13 10 16 14
T. George 2 3 1 2 2
Other n/a 3 3 n/a n/a
Undec 17 18 26 22 24

General Election Matchups
M. Bouchard  48%
V. Bernero 32
Undec 20

M. Bouchard  49%
A. Dillon 33
Undec 18

-            Now 3/31
M. Cox 46% 44%
V. Bernero 36 30
Undec 18 26

-            Now 3/31 2/25 1/26
M. Cox 46% 43% 43% 47%
A. Dillon 37 34 36 30
Undec 17 23 21 23

-            Now 3/31
P. Hoekstra 47% 42%
V. Bernero 34 29
Undec 19 29

-            Now 3/31 2/25 1/26
P. Hoekstra 47% 40% 41% 40%
A. Dillon 35 33 37 32
Undec 18 27 21 28

-            Now 3/31
R. Snyder 51% 42%
V. Bernero 28 26
Undec 21 32

-            Now 3/31
R. Snyder 50% 42%
A. Dillon 31 30
Undec 19 28

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     3/31    2/25    1/26    12/9
M. Cox 35%/28% 38%/26% 43%/19% 41%/20% 42%/20%
M. Bouchard 32 /13 31 /10 35 / 9 33 /10 31 / 7
P. Hoekstra 31 /16 30 /15 29 /11 30 /12 30 /12
R. Snyder 26 / 8 18 / 6 19 / 4 7 / 2 6 / 2
A. Dillon 13 /12 16 /11 13 / 9 14 /11 14 /10
V. Bernero 9 / 6 8 / 6 7 / 4 7 / 4 6 / 3
T. George 4 / 3 4 / 2 6 / 2 6 / 3 6 / 3

Nevada
A Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 6/1-2; surveyed 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 6/3). Tested: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), Tony Atwood (R), '02/'06 candidate/'98 LG candidate/ret. postal worker Stan Lusak (R), ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R) and ex-U.S. Dist. Judge/ex-AG/ex-Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-             All Men Wom
B. Sandoval 47% 48% 45%
J. Gibbons 25 29 20
M. Montandon 10 7 13
S. Lusak 1 1 2
T. Atwood 1 1 0
Undec 16 13 19

Fav/Unfav
-             All     Men     Wom
B. Sandoval 58%/22% 59%/21% 57%/22%
J. Gibbons 37 /50 40 /48 33 /53
M. Montandon 25 /15 26 /17 23 /14
S. Lusak 3 /13 3 /11 2 /14
T. Atwood 5 /12 5 /11 4 /12

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