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Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Senate 2010

California
A KABC-TV/KPIX-TV/KGTV-TV/KFSN-TV poll; conducted 5/6-9 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 548 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.2% (release, 5/10). Tested: '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R), ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) and Tim Kalemkarian (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-               All Men Wom 4/21
T. Campbell 35% 38% 32% 34%
C. Fiorina 24 26 22 27
C. DeVore 15 14 16 14
T. Kalemkarian 3 4 3 3
Undec 23 19 27 23

North Carolina
A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 5/8-10; surveyed 631 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 5/11). Party ID Breakdown: 48%D, 35%R, 16%I. Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) and '02 candidate/Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D).

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11 3/15 2/15 1/18
R. Burr 44% 19% 80% 41% 48% 41% 43% 43% 44% 45%
C. Cunningham 39 64 7 32 39 39 35 32 32 36
Undec 17 17 13 27 13 21 22 25 24 19

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11 3/15 2/15 1/18
R. Burr 43% 13% 86% 40% 45% 42% 43% 41% 43% 44%
E. Marshall 42 70 6 38 44 40 37 36 33 37
Undec 15 16 8 22 11 18 20 23 23 18

Burr As Sen.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/11 3/15 2/15 1/18 12/13
Approve 37% 16% 65% 38% 40% 34% 32% 35% 35% 36% 35%
Disapprove 40 59 14 39 43 37 41 37 35 33 37

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     4/11    3/15
E. Marshall 23%/20% 36%/13% 6%/32% 21%/16% 19%/11% 17%/12%
C. Cunningham 16 /18 22 /19 11 /18 11 /16 5 / 8 4 /10

Oregon
A KATU-TV poll; conducted 5/7-9 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 633 Dem primary LVs and 449 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 3.9% and 4.6% (release, 5/10). Tested: Sen. Ron Wyden (D), '08 candidate/'04 GOP candidate/'06 OR-01 candidate/fitness instructor Pavel Goberman (D), farmer/paramedic/journalist Loren Hooker (D), G. Shane Dinkel (R), Lewis & Clark law prof. Jim Huffman (R), businessman Loren Later (R), businesswoman Robin Parker (R), realtor Tom Stutzman (R), Keith Waldron (R) and construction worker Walter Woodland (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-            All Men Wom
R. Wyden 80% 76% 84%
L. Hooker 9 10 8
P. Goberman 4 5 2
Undec 8 9 6

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom
J. Huffman 20% 22% 17%
T. Stutzman 11 15 6
K. Waldron 9 9 9
R. Parker 6 6 5
L. Later 4 6 2
G. Dinkel 4 5 2
W. Woodland 4 5 2
Undec 43 33 57

Pennsylvania
A Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call tracking poll; conducted 5/7-10; surveyed 401 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/11). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak (07).

Primary Election Matchup
-            Now 5/9 5/8 5/7 5/6 5/5 5/4 5/3 5/2 5/1
J. Sestak 47% 47% 46% 44% 43% 40% 40% 42% 40% 42%
A. Specter 43 42 42 42 43 45 48 46 49 48
Other/undec 10 11 12 14 13 14 11 12 11 11

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     5/9     5/8     5/7     5/6     5/5
J. Sestak 56%/10% 55%/14% 52%/13% 51%/14% 48%/13% 44%/13%
A. Specter 52 /34 52 /35 50 /26 52 /34 54 /34 56 /30

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/6; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 5/10). Tested: Specter, Sestak and ex-Rep./ex-Club for Growth Pres. Pat Toomey (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 4/12 3/15 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11 6/16               
P. Toomey 50% 50% 49% 47% 49% 46% 45% 48% 39%
A. Specter 38 40 40 38 40 42 40 36 50
Other 7 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 4
Undec 6 6 7 10 8 8 9 12 7

-           Now 4/12 3/15 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11 6/16
P. Toomey 42% 47% 42% 43% 43% 44% 37% 43% 35%
J. Sestak 40 36 37 35 35 38 38 35 41
Other 10 5 7 7 6 6 6 5 7
Undec 9 12 15 15 16 13 19 18 18

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     4/12    3/15    2/8     1/18    12/8
P. Toomey 51%/36% 54%/29% 53%/33% 57%/28% 57%/27% 51%/29%
J. Sestak 50 /37 38 /39 40 /38 33 /42 37 /37 36 /38
A. Specter 41 /57 42 /54 42 /54 41 /54 43 /54 44 /50

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