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Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Governor 2010

California
A KABC-TV/KPIX-TV/KGTV-TV/KFSN-TV poll; conducted 5/6-9 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 621 Dem primary LVs and 548 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 3.9% and 4.2%, respectively (release, 5/10). Tested: Businessman Richard Aguirre (D), AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), artist Lowell Darling (D), mechanical engineer Vibert Greene (D), Parole Board Judge Chuck Pineda Jr. (D), non-profit consultant Peter Schurman (D), non-profit pres. Joe Symmon (D), RR switchman Bill Chambers (R), ret. businessman Douglas Hughes (R), family broadcasting exec. Ken Miller (R), accountant Larry Naritelli (R), psychologist/farmer Robert Newman (R), Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R), physician David Tully-Smith (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-               All Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth 4/21
J. Brown 66% 64% 68% 72% 73% 50% 70% 63%
R. Aguirre 4 6 3 2 1 10 5 6
C. Pineda 3 5 2 2 3 6 2 2
J. Symmon 3 3 3 2 2 6 2 3
L. Darling 1 2 1 2 0 1 3 6
V. Greene 1 1 2 1 2 3 0 1
P. Schurman 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1
Undec 19 18 20 18 16 24 16 18

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-               All Men Wom 4/21
M. Whitman 39% 37% 41% 49%
S. Poizner 37 41 34 27
B. Chambers 3 3 2 2
R. Newman 2 3 1 2
K. Miller 2 2 2 1
L. Naritelli 1 2 0 2
D. Hughes 1 1 1 1
D. Tully-Smith 1 1 1 1
Undec 14 9 18 15

New York
A Marist College poll; conducted 5/3-5; surveyed 686 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.7%. Subsample of 177 GOPers; margin of error +/- 7.4% (release, 5/11). Tested: AG Andrew Cuomo (D), developer Carl Paladino (R), '00 SEN nominee/JPMorgan exec. VP/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) and Suffolk Co. Exec. Steve Levy (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            All Men Wom
R. Lazio 38% 32% 43%
S. Levy 22 30 14
C. Paladino 13 11 15
Undec 27 27 28

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
A. Cuomo 67% 85% 45% 65% 66% 69%
C. Paladino 22 9 42 22 22 21
Undec 11 6 14 13 12 10

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/24 2/24 1/27
A. Cuomo 65% 87% 39% 62% 65% 66% 61% 64% 64%
R. Lazio 25 8 53 26 27 23 30 28 27
Undec 10 5 8 12 8 11 9 8 9

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/24
A. Cuomo 63% 84% 39% 56% 60% 65% 65%
S. Levy 25 9 50 28 28 22 26
Undec 12 7 11 16 11 13 9

Cuomo As AG
-                All Dem GOP Ind 3/24 3/8 3/1 1/27 1/14 11/17
Excellent/good 64% 70% 58% 63% 61% 54% 67% 62% 64% 66%
Fair/poor 33 27 40 34 34 39 28 32 30 28

Oregon
A KATU-TV poll; conducted 5/7-9 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 633 Dem primary LVs and 449 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 3.9% and 4.6% (release, 5/10). Tested: '02 SEN nominee/ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D), ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D), '08 SEN candidate/ret. construction worker/custodian Roger Obrist (D), '08 Treas. nominee/businessman Allen Alley (R), CSC Capital Group chair Clark Colvin (R), '02/'06 candidate/Vietnam vet William Ames Curtright (R), ex-Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley (R), '06 candidate/OR Dept. of Enviro. Quality employee Bob Forthan (R), '04 indie WH candidate/USAF vet/businessman Darren Karr (R), '90 candidate/'98 SEN nominee/businessman/ex-state Sen. John Lim (R), '98 nominee/anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore (R) and real estate management co. owner Rex Watkins (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-             All Men Wom 4/11
J. Kitzhaber 59% 56% 61% 54%
B. Bradbury 25 25 25 16
R. Obrist 4 6 3 3
Undec 12 13 11 28

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 4/11
C. Dudley 42% 50% 29% 28%
A. Alley 24 23 26 13
B. Sizemore 8 8 7 11
J. Lim 8 7 10 7
R. Watkins 1 2 0 2
D. Karr 1 0 2 1
B. Forthan 1 1 0 3
W. Curtright 1 1 0 1
C. Colvin 1 0 1 1
Undec 14 8 24 34

Pennsylvania
A Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call tracking poll; conducted 5/7-10; surveyed 401 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/11). Tested: '04 SEN nominee/Montgomery Co. Commis./ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel, Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato, Aud. Jack Wagner, state Sen. Tony Williams.

Primary Election Matchup
-            Now 5/9 5/8 5/7 5/6 5/5 5/4 5/3 5/2 5/1
D. Onorato 33% 35% 36% 35% 35% 34% 34% 36% 39% 41%
T. Williams 15 15 12 9 10 8 9 9 7 8
J. Hoeffel 10 8 8 10 11 12 11 9 7 6
J. Wagner 9 10 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 5
Other/undec 34 32 36 38 36 39 37 38 41 40

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     5/9     5/8     5/7     5/6     5/5
D. Onorato 40%/11% 42%/11% 39%/ 9% 38%/10% 40%/11% 38%/10%
T. Williams 28 /13 26 /15 24 /13 21 /14 20 /12 18 /11
J. Hoeffel 22 / 7 21 / 9 18 / 8 20 / 8 21 / 8 22 / 8
J. Wagner 17 / 9 19 /10 17 / 8 18 / 6 19 / 7 19 / 8

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