A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/10-12 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.9% for each (release, 5/13). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 38%D, 33%R, 29%I. Tested: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), LG Bill Halter (D), businessman D.C. Morrison (D), state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), Rep. John Boozman (R-03), Safe Foods Corp CEO Curtis Coleman (R), AR Tea Party org. pres. Tom Cox (R), state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R) and '04 nominee/'06 LG nominee/ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (R). (Ed. notes: Daily Kos has endorsed Halter and is encouraging its readers to support his campaign. Complete crosstab info was not made available by press time.)
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom Wht Blk 4/28 4/14 3/24 12/2
B. Lincoln 46% 50% 43% 49% 33% 43% 45% 44% 42%
B. Halter 37 32 40 36 40 35 33 31 26
D.C. Morrison 8 8 4 7 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Other n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 7 6 n/a n/a
Undec 11 10 13 8 26 15 16 25 32
Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
J. Boozman 46% 49% 43%
J. Holt 19 21 17
G. Baker 12 14 10
K. Hendren 6 6 6
C. Coleman 2 2 2
Other 2 2 2
Undec 13 6 20
General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/28 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
G. Baker 45% 11% 79% 50% 49% 41% 47% 48% 49% 41% 37%
B. Lincoln 39 75 5 31 35 43 40 41 41 42 44
Undec 16 14 16 19 16 16 13 11 10 17 19
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/28 4/14 3/24
J. Boozman 54% 20% 89% 60% 60% 48% 52% 50% 49%
B. Lincoln 40 74 6 34 35 45 42 43 42
Undec 6 6 5 6 5 7 6 7 9
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/28 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
C. Coleman 46% 46% 47% 39% 37%
B. Lincoln 40 76 5 33 35 45 42 43 44 44 45
Undec 17 15 15 22 17 17 12 11 9 17 18
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/28 4/14 3/24 12/2 9/10
K. Hendren 46% 50% 49% 48% 30% 28%
B. Lincoln 40 76 5 33 36 44 40 42 43 46 47
Undec 14 10 16 16 15 13 10 9 9 24 25
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Holt 44%
B. Lincoln 41 77 5 35 36 46
Undec 15 13 14 19 15 15
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/28 4/14 3/24 12/2
G. Baker 42% 7% 80% 45% 47% 37% 44% 45% 46% 42%
B. Halter 42 78 5 36 39 45 43 43 44 34
Undec 16 15 15 19 14 18 13 12 10 24
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/28 4/14 3/24
J. Boozman 50% 17% 86% 52% 55% 45% 47% 48% 48%
B. Halter 41 77 6 35 36 46 42 41 40
Undec 9 6 8 13 9 9 11 11 12
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/28 4/14 3/24 12/2
B. Halter 43% 81% 5% 38% 39% 47% 43% 44% 45% 35%
C. Coleman 41 43 44 40
Undec 16 12 17 19 15 17 16 13 11 25
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 4/28 4/14 3/24 12/2
K. Hendren 42% 45% 46% 45% 31%
B. Halter 42 79 5 37 37 47 43 43 44 36
Undec 16 13 16 19 17 15 12 11 11 33
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Holt 43%
B. Halter 42 79 5 36 36 48
Undec 15 12 15 19 16 14
Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 4/28 4/14
B. Halter 47%/34% 74%/11% 18%/59% 46%/34% 48%/32% 47%/30%
J. Boozman 45 /34 17 /56 77 /12 45 /31 44 /32 45 /31
B. Lincoln 39 /55 63 /33 14 /76 38 /59 41 /54 43 /53
J. Holt 42 /30 14 /53 74 / 8 41 /27 n/a n/a
K. Hendren 37 /29 13 /49 66 / 9 36 /25 38 /27 36 /28
G. Baker 37 /32 13 /55 65 / 9 36 /28 36 /30 37 /30
C. Coleman 36 /32 17 /53 60 /10 34 /29 36 /31 35 /30
Fav/Unfav (Dems)
- All Men Wom 4/28
B. Halter 65%/17% 61%/20% 69%/14% 66%/14%
B. Lincoln 61 /35 65 /32 57 /38 59 /33
D.C. Morrison 16 /21 18 /20 14 /22 n/a
Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
J. Boozman 72%/15% 76%/13% 68%/17%
J. Holt 67 /11 70 /10 64 /12
G. Baker 61 /17 64 /16 58 /18
K. Hendren 60 /15 57 /17 63 /13
C. Coleman 55 /21 59 /19 51 /23
California
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/12; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/14). Tested: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R).
General Election Matchups
- Now 4/12 3/11 2/11 1/14
B. Boxer 42% 43% 43% 45% 46%
T. Campbell 41 41 41 41 42
Other 5 6 6 4 3
Undec 12 10 10 10 8
- Now 4/12 3/11 2/11 1/14 11/17 9/23
B. Boxer 46% 42% 46% 47% 46% 46% 46%
C. DeVore 40 39 40 42 40 36 37
Other 4 8 4 6 4 5 7
Undec 11 12 9 5 10 13 10
- Now 4/12 3/11 2/11 1/14 11/17 9/23 7/22 3/09
B. Boxer 45% 42% 46% 46% 46% 46% 49% 45% 47%
C. Fiorina 38 38 40 42 43 37 39 41 38
Other 4 7 4 7 3 5 4 7 10
Undec 12 13 10 5 8 12 8 7 5
Fav/Unfav
- Now 4/12 3/11 2/11 1/14 11/17
B. Boxer 47%/49% 51%/44% 48%/45% 51%/46% 51%/46% 51%/42%
T. Campbell 39 /35 41 /31 44 /29 44 /33 49 /23 40 /20
C. Fiorina 38 /39 36 /34 44 /31 37 /40 38 /34 40 /29
C. DeVore 34 /33 39 /26 32 /28 32 /36 33 /29 31 /25
Kentucky
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/10-12 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversamples of 400 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error for each +/- 4.9% (release, 5/13). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 47%D, 42%R, 11%I. Tested: Physician James Buckmaster (D), AG Jack Conway (D), '04 nominee/LG Dan Mongiardo (D), author/ex-Border Patrol agent Darlene Price (D), Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), WW II vet Gurley Martin (R), ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) and ex-Supt. of Public Instr. John Stephenson (R). (Note: Complete crosstab info was not available at press time.)
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom 3/17 9/2
D. Mongiardo 39% 44% 34% 47% 37%
J. Conway 36 33 39 31 30
D. Price 5 4 6 n/a n/a
J. Buckmaster 3 4 2 n/a n/a
Other 2 2 2 8 15
Undec 15 13 17 14 18
Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom 3/17 9/2
R. Paul 45% 47% 43% 40% 25%
T. Grayson 35 36 34 28 40
J. Stephenson 3 3 3 n/a n/a
G. Martin 3 3 3 n/a n/a
Other 1 1 1 14 18
Undec 13 10 16 18 17
General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/17 9/2 2/09
T. Grayson 42% 43% 45% 43%
D. Mongiardo 36 64 7 27 32 40 38 41 42
Undec 22 29 11 31 22 22 19 14 15
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/17 9/2 2/09
T. Grayson 43% 44% 46% 42%
J. Conway 35 63 6 26 31 39 36 40 41
Undec 22 29 11 30 21 23 20 14 17
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/17 9/2
R. Paul 43% 7% 84% 43% 48% 38% 46% 37%
D. Mongiardo 38 68 7 28 34 42 37 42
Undec 19 25 9 29 18 20 17 21
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/17 9/2
R. Paul 42% 6% 84% 40% 48% 36% 45% 37%
J. Conway 39 70 7 29 34 44 39 41
Undec 19 24 9 31 18 20 16 22
New Hampshire
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/11; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/13). Tested: Ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), businessman Jim Bender (R), businessman Bill Binnie (R), '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Rep. Paul Hodes (D-02).
General Election Matchups
- Now 4/7 3/8 2/10 1/12 9/14
K. Ayotte 50% 50% 47% 46% 49% 46%
P. Hodes 38 35 37 39 40 38
Other 3 4 4 3 3 5
Undec 9 11 12 13 12 8
P. Hodes 41%
J. Bender 39
Other 8
Undec 13
- Now 4/7 3/8 2/10 1/12
B. Binnie 49% 49% 46% 42% 37
P. Hodes 37 37 36 41 43
Other 6 4 4 3 5
Undec 8 10 14 13 15
- Now 4/7 3/8 2/10 1/12
P. Hodes 43% 39% 42% 44% 45%
O. Lamontagne 38 44 38 38 38
Other 8 7 5 4 6
Undec 11 11 15 13 11
Fav/Unfav
- Now 4/7 3/8 2/10 1/12 9/14
K. Ayotte 63%/27% 61%/19% 60%/22% 57%/21% 60%/21% 58%/21%
B. Binnie 50 /30 51 /28 47 /26 45 /22 34 /29 n/a
P. Hodes 45 /47 45 /46 46 /42 49 /42 49 /38 46 /38
O. Lamontagne 33 /39 38 /31 33 /33 35 /31 38 /35 n/a
Pennsylvania
A Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call tracking poll; conducted 5/10-13; surveyed 416 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 5/14). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak (07).
Primary Election Matchup
- Now 5/12 5/11 5/10 5/9 5/8 5/7 5/6 5/5 5/4 5/3
A. Specter 45% 44% 45% 43% 42% 42% 42% 43% 45% 48% 46%
J. Sestak 43 44 45 47 47 46 44 43 40 40 42
Other/undec 12 12 9 10 11 12 14 13 14 11 12
Fav/Unfav
- Now 5/12 5/11 5/10 5/9 5/8
A. Specter 57%/33% 53%/36% 54%/35% 52%/34% 52%/35% 50%/26%
J. Sestak 52 /13 54 /11 55 / 9 56 /10 55 /14 52 /13
A Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 5/10-12; surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.9% for each (release, 5/13). Tested: Specter, Sestak, '90 GOV candidate/'94/'98 Const. Party GOV nominee Margaret "Peg" Luksik (R) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom
J. Sestak 49% 54% 45%
A. Specter 40 38 41
Undec 12 8 15
Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
P. Toomey 60% 69% 50%
P. Luksik 9 8 10
Undec 31 22 40
Fav/Unfav
- Dems GOPers
B. Obama 75%/18% 13%/81%
E. Rendell 61 /31 17 /76
J. Sestak 49 /26 35 /31
A. Specter 49 /41 11 /83
P. Toomey 21 /30 51 /11
P. Luksik 12 /10 21 /10
Which Candidate Has A Better Chance Of Defeating The GOP Candidate In The General Election? (Dems)
- All Men Wom
A. Specter 43% 44% 42%
J. Sestak 38 44 32
Undec 19 12 25
Which Candidate Has Run A More Negative Campaign? (Dems)
- All Men Wom
A. Specter 43% 51% 37%
J. Sestak 24 17 30
Undec 31 31 31
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 5/10-12 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversample of 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/14). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 47%D, 39%R, 14%I. Tested: Specter, Sestak and Toomey. (Note: Complete crosstab data was not available as of press time.)
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom 3/10 8/12 5/09
J. Sestak 45% 41% 48% 32% 33% 11%
A. Specter 43 46 41 51 48 56
Undec 12 13 11 17 19 33
General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/10 8/12 5/6
P. Toomey 49% 17% 86% 52% 53% 45% 41% 40% 31%
A. Specter 41 75 5 31 38 44 47 45 55
Undec 10 8 9 17 9 11 12 15 14
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/10 8/12 5/6
P. Toomey 45% 13% 84% 44% 49% 41% 42% 41% 32%
J. Sestak 40 39 42 37
Undec 15 14 12 26 17 13 19 17 31
Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 3/10 8/12
P. Toomey 45%/40% 16%/64% 82%/12% 41%/38% 41%/36% 37%/34%
A. Specter 45 /44 68 /21 18 /72 43 /44 48 /42 52 /40
J. Sestak 39 /26 55 /13 19 /41 39 /27 35 /23 37 /19
Fav/Unfav (Dems)
- All Men Wom
A. Specter 52%/37% 54%/35% 50%/39%
J. Sestak 51 /18 48 /22 54 /14
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