A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/8-10; surveyed 445 Dem primary runoff LVs; margin of error +/- 4.6% (release, 5/12). Tested: Atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) and '02 candidate/Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D).
Primary Runoff Election Matchup
- Primary LVs
- All Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 5/2
E. Marshall 36% 37% 35% 32% 44% 23% 43%
C. Cunningham 36 47 29 43 22 43 32
Undec 28 16 36 24 33 34 25
Fav/Unfav
- Primary LVs-------->
- All Men Wom 5/2 4/26 4/11
E. Marshall 49%/ 9% 52%/10% 48%/ 9% 47%/14% 44%/15% 32%/ 7%
C. Cunningham 35 /14 37 /18 33 /11 36 /16 39 /17 8 / 6
Pennsylvania
A Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call tracking poll; conducted 5/8-11; surveyed 407 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/12). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak (07).
Primary Election Matchup
- Now 5/10 5/9 5/8 5/7 5/6 5/5 5/4 5/3 5/2 5/1
J. Sestak 45% 47% 47% 46% 44% 43% 40% 40% 42% 40% 42%
A. Specter 45 43 42 42 42 43 45 48 46 49 48
Other/undec 9 10 11 12 14 13 14 11 12 11 11
Fav/Unfav
- Now 5/10 5/9 5/8 5/7 5/6
J. Sestak 55%/ 9% 56%/10% 55%/14% 52%/13% 51%/14% 48%/13%
A. Specter 54 /35 52 /34 52 /35 50 /26 52 /34 54 /34
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 5/5-10; surveyed 945 Dem primary LVs and 995 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively (release, 5/12). Tested: Specter, Sestak, '90 GOV candidate/'94/'98 Const. Party GOV nominee Margaret "Peg" Luksik (R) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- RVs--------------------->
- All Men Wom 5/2 4/5 2/28 12/14 9/28 7/19 5/09
A. Specter 44% 44% 44% 47% 53% 53% 53% 44% 55% 50%
J. Sestak 42 47 38 39 32 29 30 25 23 21
Other 1 1 -- -- -- 2 1 2 1 1
Not vote -- -- -- -- -- 2 1 1 2 2
Undec 14 8 17 14 15 14 15 28 19 27
Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
P. Toomey 60% 68% 53%
P. Luksik 9 7 10
Other -- -- --
Not vote -- -- --
Undec 31 24 37
A Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL-TV/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-TV/WPVI-TV/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll; conducted 5/3-9 by Franklin & Marshall College; surveyed 1,023 adults; margin of error +/- 3.1%. Subsample of 861 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3%. Further subsamples of 404 Dem RVs and 321 GOP RVs; margins of error +/- 4.9% and 5.5%, respectively. Further subsample of 150 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 8.0% (release, 5/12). Tested: Specter, Sestak, Luksik and Toomey.
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- LVs LVs RVs-------------------------->
- All LVs Men Wom 3/21 2/21 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21
A. Specter 38% 36 29% 41% 32% 33% 30% 30% 37% 33%
J. Sestak 29 38 54 23 12 16 13 18 11 13
Other 2 2 2 1 4 7 7 5 6 6
Undec 31 25 14 34 52 44 50 47 46 48
Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- Now 3/21
P. Toomey 28% 30%
P. Luksik 1 4
Other 2 2
Undec 69 64
General Election Matchups (RVs)
- Now 3/21 2/21 1/24 10/25 8/31 4/09
P. Toomey 35% 33% 29% 30% 31% 29% 26
A. Specter 33 29 33 30 33 37 29
Other 6 6 9 5 6 9 9
Undec 26 32 29 35 30 25 36
- Now 3/21 2/21 1/24 10/25 8/31
P. Toomey 29% 27% 25% 28% 28% 26%
J. Sestak 28 19 22 16 20 22
Other 5 5 6 5 4 6
Undec 38 49 47 51 48 46
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