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Thursday, May 20, 2010

Governor 2010

Arizona
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/17; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1%. Subsample of 541 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.2% (release, 5/19). Tested: Gov. Jan Brewer (R), Treas. Dean Martin (R), NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills (R) and ex-state GOP Chair John Munger (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-           Now 4/13 3/16
J. Brewer 45% 26% 20%
B. Mills 18 18 19
D. Martin 18 12 21
J. Munger 3 14 10
Other 3 6 7
Undec 13 24 23

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-           Now     4/13    3/16    11/18
J. Brewer 80%/17% 49%/41% 52%/44% 54%/40%
D. Martin 45 /24 37 /21 54 /14 60 /10
B. Mills 44 /27 40 /19 43 /12 n/a
J. Munger 19 /35 18 /23 37 /26 28 /22

Brewer As Gov.
-           Now 4/27 4/15 4/13 3/16 1/20 11/18 9/24 7/21 5/09
Approve 64% 56% 40% 48% 41% 37% 39% 37% 48% 51%
Disapprove 35 42 56 51 55 60 57 57 48 45

California
A Public Policy Institute Of CA poll; conducted 5/9-16; surveyed 1,168 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.9%. Subsample of 411 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 5/20). Tested: AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-           All Men Wom 3/16 1/19
M. Whitman 38% 41% 36% 61% 41%
S. Poizner 29 29 29 11 11
Other 2 3 1 3 4
Undec 31 27 34 25 44

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/16 1/19 12/8
J. Brown 45% 74% 12% 40% 42% 47% 46% 44% 47%
S. Poizner 32 10 65 27 37 27 31 29 31
Undec 23 16 23 33 21 26 23 27 21

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/16 1/19 12/8
J. Brown 42% 70% 10% 38% 40% 45% 39% 41% 43%
M. Whitman 37 16 69 34 42 33 44 36 37
Undec 21 14 21 28 18 22 17 23 20

How Closely Are You Following News About Candidates For The GOV Election?
-                   Now 3/16 1/19 12/8
Very closely 21% 17% 11% 10%
Fairly closely 46 46 34 33
Not too closely 27 28 42 36
Not at all closely 6 8 12 20

Colorado
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 5/14-16; surveyed 1,060 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 5/20). Party ID breakdown: 37%D, 33%R, 31%I. Tested: Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) and ex-Rep. Scott McInnis (R).

General Election Matchup
-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/8
J. Hickenlooper 44% 78% 9% 42% 39% 49% 50%
S. McInnis 44 11 79 46 52 36 39
Undec 12 11 12 12 9 14 11

Fav/Unfav
-                All     Dem     GOP     Ind     3/8
J. Hickenlooper 47%/33% 73%/12% 21%/57% 44%/34% 51%/27%
S. McInnis 31 /30 14 /42 53 /15 29 /30 28 /27

Georgia
An InsiderAdvantage (IVR) poll; conducted 5/18; surveyed 423 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 5/19). Tested: Rep. Nathan Deal (09), Sec/State Karen Handel, state Sen. Eric Johnson, radio/TV ad producer Ray McBerry, Insurance Commis. John Oxendine and Wal-mart worker Otis Putnam.

Primary Election Matchup
-             Now 4/5 2/28 2/9 5/13
J. Oxendine 23% 26% 27% 25% 21%
K. Handel 15 18 13 10 9
N. Deal 14 9 9 9 11
E. Johnson 5 5 7 7 3
J. Chapman 2 n/a n/a n/a n/a
R. McBerry 2 n/a n/a n/a n/a
O. Putnam 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Others n/a 11 8 4 6
Undec 39 31 36 45 50

Minnesota
A MN Public Radio News/Humphrey Institute poll; conducted 5/13-16; surveyed 701 adults; margin of error +/- 3.7%. Subsample of 246 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.2% (release, 5/19). Tested: State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D), ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D), atty/ex-state House Min. Leader Matt Entenza (D), state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (IP).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
M. Dayton             38%
M. Anderson Kelliher 28
M. Entenza 6
Undec 28

General Election Matchups
T. Emmer              31%
M. Anderson Kelliher 29
T. Horner 10
Undec 30

M. Dayton             35%
T. Emmer 31
T. Horner 9
Undec 25

T. Emmer              32%
M. Entenza 28
T. Horner 11
Undec 29

South Carolina
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/17; surveyed 931 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 5/20). Tested: Rep. Gresham Barrett (03), LG André Bauer, state Rep. Nikki Haley and AG Henry McMaster.

Primary Election Matchup
N. Haley     30%
H. McMaster 19
G. Barrett 17
A. Bauer 12
Other 3
Undec 18

Fav/Unfav
N. Haley     60%/14%
H. McMaster 59 /19
G. Barrett 52 /23
A. Bauer 42 /49

Obama As POTUS
Approve      10%
Disapprove 90

Sanford As Gov.
Approve      63%
Disapprove 37

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