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Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Senate 2010

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/18; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 3/24). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R), ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 2/18 1/27 12/14 10/19 8/17 6/22
C. Crist 45% 48% 48% 42% 46% 48% 46%
K. Meek 34 32 33 36 34 29 28
Other 11 11 10 11 9 10 12
Undec 10 9 9 11 11 13 14

-           Now 2/18 1/27 12/14 10/19 8/17
M. Rubio 48% 51% 49% 49% 46% 43%
K. Meek 34 31 32 35 31 30
Other 6 7 6 4 8 8
Undec 11 11 13 12 15 19

Crist As Gov.
-           Now 2/18 1/27 12/14 10/20
Approve 45% 52% 51% 52% 49%
Disapprove 54 45 47 45 49

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     2/18    1/27    12/14   10/19   8/17
C. Crist 49%/48% 55%/41% 58%/40% 59%/38% 57%/41% 64%/35%
M. Rubio 48 /34 51 /27 51 /31 41 /33 33 /34 41 /31
K. Meek 33 /39 42 /33 38 /36 51 /29 39 /34 37 /34

North Carolina
An Elon Univ. poll; conducted 3/14-17; surveyed 579 adults; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 3/22).

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     2/25
R. Burr 34%/17% 30%/23%
E. Marshall 18 / 8 19 / 8
S. Harris 11 / 9 n/a
C. Cunningham 10 / 7 6 / 9
K. Lewis 9 / 7 9 / 7
A. Worthy 9 / 6 n/a
B. Jones 7 / 6 6 / 8
M. Williams 7 / 6 9 / 7
E. Burks 6 / 6 7 / 7
M. Beitler 6 / 4 4 / 6
L. Linney 5 / 6 n/a

Pennsylvania
A Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL-TV/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-TV/WPVI-TV/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll; conducted 3/15-21 by Franklin & Marshall College; surveyed 1,119 adults; margin of error +/- 2.9%. Subsample of 964 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Further subsamples of 483 Dem RVs and 353 GOP RVs; margins of error +/- 4.5% and 5.2%, respectively (release, 3/24). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07), businessman Joe Vodvarka (D), '90 GOV candidate/'94/'98 Const. Party GOV nominee Margaret "Peg" Luksik (R) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-            Now 2/21 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21
A. Specter 32% 33% 30% 30% 37% 33%
J. Sestak 12 16 13 18 11 13
J. Vodvarka 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Other 4 7 7 5 6 6
Undec 52 44 50 47 46 48

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
P. Toomey    30%
P. Luksik 4
Other 2
Undec 64

General Election Matchups (RVs)
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21 1/24 10/25 8/31
P. Toomey 33% 11% 64% 32% 43% 23% 29% 30% 31% 29%
A. Specter 29 46 10 17 25 32 33 30 33 37
Other 6 6 4 14 7 5 9 5 6 9
Undec 32 38 22 37 25 39 29 35 30 25

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21 1/24 10/25 8/31
P. Toomey 27% 7% 52% 35% 34% 19% 25% 28% 28% 26%
J. Sestak 19 34 4 5 19 19 22 16 20 22
Other 5 6 3 6 5 5 6 5 4 6
Undec 49 53 42 53 42 56 47 51 48 46

Re-Elect Specter? (RVs)
-                    Now 2/21 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21 3/22 10/97
Deserves reelection 28% 25% 29% 23% 34% 28% 40% 49%
Time for a change 61 63 60 66 54 57 46 40
Undec 11 12 11 11 12 15 14 11

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     2/21    1/24    10/25   8/31    6/21
A. Specter 30%/45% 32%/45% 35%/43% 28%/47% 35%/42% 31%/37%
P. Toomey 18 /10 16 / 7 15 / 7 16 /10 18 /10 n/a
J. Sestak 11 / 6 10 / 3 8 / 6 11 / 5 13 / 4 n/a

Specter As Sen.
-                Now 2/21 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21 3/22 2/09 8/07
Excellent/good 30% 30% 34% 29% 35% 34% 52% 43% 51%
Only fair/poor 63 62 58 64 57 55 37 49 45

Utah
A Salt Lake Deseret News/KSL-TV poll; conducted 3/22 by Dan Jones & Assoc.; surveyed 406 adults; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 3/24).

Bennett As Sen.
-           Now 11/23 1/09
Approve 54% 58% 68%
Disapprove 37 31 20

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