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Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Senate 2010

Connecticut
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 3/9-15; surveyed 1,451 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.6%. Subsamples of 549 Dems and 387 GOPers; margins of error +/- 4.2% and 5.0%, respectively (release, 3/17). Tested: Businessman/ex-USAF officer Merrick Alpert (D), AG Richard Blumenthal (D), ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R), ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) and businessman Peter Schiff (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-              All Men Wom 1/12
R. Blumenthal 81% 79% 82% 82%
M. Alpert 6 9 4 4
Other -- -- -- 1
Not vote -- 1 -- 2
Undec 13 11 14 12

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom 1/12 11/8 9/14 7/20 5/25
L. McMahon 44% 40% 50% 27% 17% n/a n/a n/a
R. Simmons 34 38 28 37 28 43 42 48
P. Schiff 9 12 5 4 5 2 -- n/a
Other/others 1 1 2 2 13 11 11 11
Not vote 1 1 -- 2 2 2 1 2
Undec 12 9 15 28 36 43 45 39

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/12
R. Blumenthal 61% 90% 31% 54% 56% 65% 64%
L. McMahon 28 4 63 32 33 24 23
Other 1 -- -- 1 1 -- 1
Not vote 1 -- -- 1 1 -- 1
Undec 10 5 5 13 9 11 11

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/12
R. Blumenthal 64% 92% 36% 58% 59% 69% 66%
P. Schiff 21 2 53 23 28 15 19
Other -- 1 -- -- -- 1 1
Not vote 2 -- 1 2 1 2 1
Undec 13 6 13 17 12 14 14

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/12
R. Blumenthal 62% 91% 30% 56% 56% 68% 62%
R. Simmons 26 4 62 28 35 18 27
Other 1 -- -- 2 -- 1 --
Not vote 1 -- 1 1 1 1 1
Undec 10 5 7 13 8 12 10

Blumenthal As AG
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/12 11/8 9/14 7/20 5/25
Approve 79% 90% 64% 79% 73% 84% 84% 78% 78% 79% 78%
Disapprove 13 2 31 14 19 8 11 13 14 13 9

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/12
R. Blumenthal 70%/18% 85%/ 3% 52%/41% 68%/19% 74%/13%
R. Simmons 38 /21 31 /24 63 /14 34 /21 36 /18
L. McMahon 36 /26 20 /37 63 /16 40 /21 24 /21
P. Schiff 10 / 6 3 / 7 19 / 2 12 / 6 8 / 5
M. Alpert 4 / 3 5 / 3 3 / 2 3 / 3 3 / 3

Which Type Of SEN Candidate Would You Prefer: A Candidate Who Funds Their Campaign Mostly With Private Donations Or A Wealthy Candidate Who Funds Their Campaign Mostly With Their Own Funds?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Donations 46% 50% 48% 44% 46% 46%
Own funds 36 33 35 38 34 38

Which Type Of Candidate Would You Prefer To See As A Sen.: Someone With Years Of Political Experience, Or A Political Outsider?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Experience 45% 62% 31% 39% 36% 54%
Outsider 45 28 63 51 56 36

Does Blumenthal's Experience As AG Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Him For SEN?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 60% 79% 37% 57% 53% 66%
Less likely 13 2 34 13 19 8
No difference 25 18 27 29 27 24

Does Simmons' Experience As A Rep. Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Him For SEN?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 21% 18% 34% 20% 27% 17%
Less likely 21 20 23 20 24 18
No difference 52 59 38 53 46 58

Does McMahon's Experience As CEO Of World Wrestling Entertainment Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Her For SEN?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 15% 8% 26% 18% 19% 13%
Less likely 33 43 23 28 34 32
No difference 49 47 49 51 46 51

Fav/Unfav
-                       All     Men     Wom
Professional wrestling 17%/54% 19%/52% 16%/56%

Would You Like To See The Next Sen. Generally Support/Oppose Obama's Policies?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Support 56% 88% 14% 50% 49% 62%
Oppose 36 8 80 39 45 29

Pennsylvania
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/15; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 3/17). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and ex-Rep./ex-Club for Growth Pres. Pat Toomey (R).

General Election Matchups
-           Now 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11 6/16                
P. Toomey 49% 47% 49% 46% 45% 48% 39%
A. Specter 40 38 40 42 40 36 50
Other 5 5 4 4 6 4 4
Undec 7 10 8 8 9 12 7

-           Now 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11 6/16
P. Toomey 42% 43% 43% 44% 37% 43% 35%
J. Sestak 37 35 35 38 38 35 41
Other 7 7 6 6 6 5 7
Undec 15 15 16 13 19 18 18

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     2/8     1/18    12/8    10/13   8/11
P. Toomey 53%/33% 57%/28% 57%/27% 51%/29% 52%/27% 54%/26%
A. Specter 42 /54 41 /54 43 /54 44 /50 46 /52 43 /54
J. Sestak 40 /38 33 /42 37 /37 36 /38 37 /34 40 /36

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