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Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Senate 2010

California
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/11; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/16). Tested: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 2/11 1/14
B. Boxer 43% 45% 46%
T. Campbell 41 41 42
Other 6 4 3
Undec 10 10 8

-            Now 2/11 1/14 11/17 9/23
B. Boxer 46% 47% 46% 46% 46%
C. DeVore 40 42 40 36 37
Other 4 6 4 5 7
Undec 9 5 10 13 10

-            Now 2/11 1/14 11/17 9/23 7/22 3/09    
B. Boxer 46% 46% 46% 46% 49% 45% 47%
C. Fiorina 40 42 43 37 39 41 38
Other 4 7 3 5 4 7 10
Undec 10 5 8 12 8 7 5

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     2/11    1/14    11/17   9/24    9/23
B. Boxer 48%/45% 51%/46% 51%/46% 51%/42% n/a 51%/42%
T. Campbell 44 /29 44 /33 49 /23 40 /20 42%/27% n/a
C. Fiorina 44 /31 37 /40 38 /34 40 /29 n/a 32 /35
C. DeVore 32 /28 32 /36 33 /29 31 /25 n/a 31 /37

North Carolina
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 3/12-15; surveyed 420 Dem primary LVs and 311 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.8% and 5.6%, respectively (release, 3/16). Tested: Atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), Susan Harris (D), atty/Obama fundraiser Ken Lewis (D), '02 candidate/Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D), atty Marcus Williams (D), librarian Ann Worthy (D), Sen. Richard Burr (R), Asheboro City councilor Eddie Burks (R), businessman Brad Jones (R) and disbarred atty/ex-state Rep. Larry Linney (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-              All Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 2/15
E. Marshall 20% 22% 18% 23% 14% 8% 29%
C. Cunningham 16 19 13 14 20 14 12
K. Lewis 11 12 10 9 13 17 5
S. Harris 4 4 5 4 4 11 n/a
M. Williams 2 1 3 1 2 14 2
A. Worthy 0 1 0 0 1 -- n/a
Undec 47 41 52 48 46 37 51

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom 2/15
R. Burr 58% 62% 54% 55%
B. Jones 5 4 5 10
E. Burks 4 4 4 3
L. Linney 1 2 -- n/a
Undec 33 28 37 31

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-              All     Men     Wom     2/15
E. Marshall 27%/10% 27%/11% 27%/10% 29%/ 9%
K. Lewis 9 /12 12 /16 6 / 9 9 / 9
C. Cunningham 8 / 9 9 /11 7 / 8 9 / 7

A Lake Research Partners (D) poll; conducted 2/11-15 for Marshall; surveyed 600 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 3/15). Tested: Marshall, Cunningham, John Hendrix, Lewis, Williams and Worthy.

Primary Election Matchup
E. Marshall    31%
C. Cunningham 5
K. Lewis 4
M. Williams 3
J. Hendrix 1
A. Worthy --
Undec 56

Pennsylvania
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/15; surveyed 481 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 3/16). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07).

Primary Election Matchup
-           Now 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11 6/16
A. Specter 48% 51% 53% 48% 46% 47% 51%
J. Sestak 37 36 32 35 42 34 32
Other 5 4 4 3 2 3 4
Undec 9 9 11 14 10 16 13

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     2/8     1/18    12/8    10/13   8/11
A. Specter 65%/31% 69%/29% 67%/31% 66%/25% 68%/30% 71%/25%
J. Sestak 47 /22 55 /23 54 /26 48 /22 45 /27 54 /23

A Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) poll; conducted 3/3-6; surveyed 700 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 3/12). Party reg. breakdown: 50%D, 42%R, 8%I. Tested: Specter and ex-Rep./ex-Club for Growth Pres. Pat Toomey (R). (Note: Toomey was IDed as "the Republican candidate," while Specter was IDed as "the Democrat candidate.")

General Election Matchup
-                                   RVs   RVs
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 10/12 5/30
P. Toomey 42% 14% 75% 40% 50% 34% 41% 37%
A. Specter 36 59 9 30 33 38 42 46
None/other 4 7 1 3 5 4 4 4
Undec 18 20 15 25 12 24 12 13

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