A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR); conducted 2/18; surveyed 560 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 2/24). Tested: Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) and Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R).
Primary Election Matchup
R. Paul 44%
T. Grayson 23
Undec 33
Fav/Unfav
R. Paul 43%/12%
T. Grayson 31 /20
Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/16-21; surveyed 1,662 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.4%. Subsample of 604 Dems; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/24). Tested: Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D), LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-Rep./ex-OMB Dir. Rob Portman (R).
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15 2/2
L. Fisher 29% 39% 21% 24% 26% 24% 20% 18% 18%
J. Brunner 20 19 21 22 17 21 16 14 16
Other 2 3 1 1 1 2 5 19 14
Not vote 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 --
Undec 48 37 55 51 55 51 59 46 53
General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
R. Portman 40% 7% 75% 40% 48% 33% 38% 34% 34% 32% 34%
J. Brunner 35 74 6 28 32 38 34 39 35 40 39
Other -- -- -- 1 -- -- -- 1 1 -- 1
Not vote 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 -- 2
Undec 23 18 18 29 18 27 27 25 29 27 25
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
R. Portman 40% 6% 77% 39% 45% 35% 39% 31% 33% 31% 33%
L. Fisher 37 79 6 27 35 38 36 42 37 42 41
Other -- -- -- 1 -- -- -- 1 2 1 1
Not vote 2 -- -- 5 3 2 1 1 2 -- 2
Undec 21 14 17 28 17 25 24 26 26 26 24
Fisher As LG
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4
Approve 39% 59% 24% 37% 38% 41% 39% 44% 39% 49%
Disapprove 22 10 32 22 26 18 23 21 24 17
Brunner As Sec/State
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
Approve 36% 56% 17% 37% 33% 39% 38% 41% 38% 45% 41%
Disapprove 25 9 43 24 31 19 25 23 25 20 19
Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 11/9 9/13
L. Fisher 26%/12% 47%/ 3% 12%/18% 22%/14% 25%/15% 33%/13%
R. Portman 25 / 7 8 /14 39 / 3 29 / 7 22 / 7 20 / 7
J. Brunner 21 /12 37 / 3 7 /22 20 /13 20 /18 27 /14
Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You ___? (Dems)
- Fisher Brunner
Trust to do what they say during the campaign 34% 31%
Believe most shares your values 31 29
See as more consistently liberal 28 26
Pennsylvania
A Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL-TV/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-TV/WPVI-TV/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll; conducted 2/15-21 by Franklin & Marshall College; surveyed 1,143 adults; margin of error +/- 2.9%. Subsample of 951 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Further subsample of 481 Dem RVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 1/27). Party reg. breakdown (RVs): 51%D, 36%R, 10%I. Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R). (Note: The General Election Matchup crosstabs are among LVs. The poll surveyed 324 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.4%.)
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- Now 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21
A. Specter 33% 30% 30% 37% 33%
J. Sestak 16 13 18 11 13
Other 7 7 5 6 6
Undec 44 50 47 46 48
General Election Matchups (RVs)
- LVs LVs LVs LVs LVs RVs RVs RVs RVs
- All LVs Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/25 8/31 4/27
A. Specter 33% 34% 63% 9% 15% 29% 39% 30% 33% 37% 29%
P. Toomey 29 44 17 75 36 48 40 30 31 29 26
Other 9 6 7 4 13 8 5 5 6 9 9
Undec 29 16 14 12 36 14 17 35 30 25 36
- LVs LVs LVs LVs LVs RVs RVs RVs
- All LVs Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/25 8/31
P. Toomey 25% 38% 12% 67% 32% 43% 32% 28% 28% 26%
J. Sestak 22 20 39 3 12 19 22 16 20 22
Other 6 3 4 2 4 3 3 5 4 6
Undec 47 39 46 28 51 35 43 51 48 46
Re-elect Specter? (RVs)
- Now 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21 3/22 10/97
Deserves reelection 25% 29% 23% 34% 28% 40% 49%
Time for a change 63 60 66 54 57 46 40
Undec 12 11 11 12 15 14 11
Fav/Unfav
- Now 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21 3/22
A. Specter 32%/45% 35%/43% 28%/47% 35%/42% 31%/37% 48%/24%
P. Toomey 16 / 7 15 / 7 16 /10 18 /10 n/a n/a
J. Sestak 10 / 3 8 / 6 11 / 5 13 / 4 n/a n/a
Specter As Sen.
- Now 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21 3/22 2/09 8/07 2/04
Excellent/good 30% 34% 29% 35% 34% 52% 43% 51% 39%
Only fair/poor 62 58 64 57 55 37 49 45 42
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