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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Governor 2010

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 2/23). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 2/1 12/14 10/20 6/22
B. McCollum 48% 46% 44% 46% 42%
A. Sink 35 35 39 35 34
Other 4 5 5 5 7
Undec 12 13 12 15 18

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     2/1     12/14   10/20   6/22
B. McCollum 53%/29% 53%/30% 54%/30% 49%/31% 53%/25%
A. Sink 38 /34 39 /34 45 /31 41 /30 50 /32

Georgia
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/22). Tested: Ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), Rep. Nathan Deal (R-09), Sec/State Karen Handel (R), state Sen. Eric Johnson (R) and Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 1/20
N. Deal 43% 42%
R. Barnes 37 43
Other 7 7
Undec 14 8

-            Now 1/20
K. Handel 45% 42%
R. Barnes 36 43
Other 5 5
Undec 14 10

E. Johnson   37%
R. Barnes 37
Other 8
Undec 18

-            Now 1/20
J. Oxendine 45% 44%
R. Barnes 37 42
Other 7 6
Undec 10 8

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     1/20
J. Oxendine 58%/31% 59%/29%
K. Handel 53 /24 52 /24
R. Barnes 48 /43 52 /38
N. Deal 40 /27 44 /29
E. Johnson 36 /25 n/a

New Mexico
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18-20; surveyed 990 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 2/24). Party ID breakdown: 53%D, 32%R, 15%I. Tested: State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R), atty Pete Domenici Jr. (R), Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R), PR firm owner/ex-Gov. Johnson mgr. Doug Turner (R), businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R) and LG Diane Denish (D).

General Election Matchups
-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 47% 74% 11% 32% 44% 50% 42% 21% 57% 31%
J. Arnold-Jones 33 13 66 37 37 30 40 49 25 38
Undec 19 13 23 32 19 20 18 30 19 31

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 45% 71% 8% 32% 42% 48% 41% 35% 52% 32%
P. Domenici 40 17 75 47 44 37 44 48 35 49
Undec 15 12 17 20 14 16 15 16 13 19

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 46% 71% 11% 32% 44% 49% 42% 28% 54% 32%
S. Martinez 32 14 62 34 38 27 35 54 27 39
Undec 21 15 27 34 19 24 23 17 19 29

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 46% 73% 8% 27% 43% 48% 40% 28% 55% 28%
D. Turner 32 12 62 37 36 28 38 48 24 35
Undec 22 14 30 36 21 24 22 23 21 37

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 48% 75% 9% 32% 47% 48% 41% 35% 58% 34%
A. Weh 30 10 63 30 33 27 37 32 21 28
Undec 22 14 29 38 20 24 22 33 21 38

Fav/Unfav
-                All     Dem     GOP     Ind
D. Denish 41%/34% 57%/22% 18%/56% 31%/32%
P. Domenici 27 /35 19 /44 41 /20 25 /36
S. Martinez 17 /21 14 /23 20 /17 19 /19
D. Turner 12 /19 8 /24 16 /12 19 /18
A. Weh 12 /20 8 /25 20 /12 13 /22
J. Arnold-Jones 8 /21 9 /21 8 /18 8 /24

Pennsylvania
A Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL-TV/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-TV/WPVI-TV/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll; conducted 2/15-21 by Franklin & Marshall College; surveyed 1,143 adults; margin of error +/- 2.9%. Subsamples of 481 Dem RVs and 340 GOP RVs; margins of error +/- 4.5% and 5.3%, respectively (release, 2/24). Tested: Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty (D), '04 SEN nominee/Montgomery Co. Commis./ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D), '07 Philly mayor candidate/ex-Philly Dep. Mayor/businessman Tom Knox (D), Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D), Aud. Jack Wagner (D), state Sen. Anthony Williams (D), AG Tom Corbett (R) and state Rep. Sam Rohrer (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-            Now 1/24 10/25
D. Onorato 6% 10% 10%
J. Wagner 6 4 9
J. Hoeffel 6 4 6
C. Doherty 4 4 3
A. Williams 1 n/a n/a
T. Knox n/a 2 3
Other 5 7 3
Undec 72 72 66

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            Now 1/24
T. Corbett 26% 23%
S. Rohrer 4 5
Other 5 3
Undec 65 69

Fav/Unfav
T. Corbett   21%/ 6%

Rhode Island
A Brown Univ. poll; conducted 2/9-12; surveyed 605 RVS; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsample of 357 Dems; margin of error +/- 5.2% (release, 2/23). Tested: Treas. Frank Caprio (D), ex-GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I), AG Patrick Lynch (D) and ex-Gov. Carcieri comm. dir. John Robitaille (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
F. Caprio       31%
P. Lynch 22
Undec 48

General Election Matchups
L. Chafee       34%
F. Caprio 28
J. Robitaille 12
Undec 26

L. Chafee       33%
P. Lynch 18
J. Robitaille 14
Undec 36

Caprio As Treas.
-               Now 12/6
Excellent/good 43% 39%
Only fair/poor 31 26

Lynch As AG
-               Now 12/6
Excellent/good 37% 38%
Only fair/poor 53 47

Texas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/23; surveyed 500 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/24). Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) and Wharton Co. GOP chair/ex-nurse Debra Medina (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-                Now 2/1 1/17 11/11 9/16 7/15 5/6
R. Perry 48% 44% 43% 46% 38% 46% 42%
K. B. Hutchison 27 29 33 35 40 36 38
D. Medina 16 16 12 4 3 n/a n/a
Other n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5 7
Undec 9 11 11 14 19 14 13

Perry As Gov.
-                Now 2/1 1/17 11/11 9/16
Approve 66% 74% 68% 73% 69%
Disapprove 32 25 31 25 29

Fav/Unfav
-                Now     2/1     1/17    11/11   9/16
R. Perry 67%/31% 80%/19% 72%/26% 75%/24% 72%/26%
K. B. Hutchison 56 /42 67 /31 73 /25 75 /23 71 /26
D. Medina 35 /47 50 /29 43 /29 16 /29 18 /29

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/23). Tested: '02 candidate/Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (D), '98 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (R) and Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R).

General Election Matchups
M. Neumann  44%               S. Walker   49%
T. Barrett 42 T. Barrett 40
Other 4 Other 1
Undec 10 Undec 10

Fav/Unfav
S. Walker   55%/29%
M. Neumann 49 /31
T. Barrett 49 /36

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