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Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Governor 2010

Iowa
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/22). Tested: Gov. Chet Culver (D), ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R) and '02 candidate/'06 LG nominee Bob Vander Plaats (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 9/22                           Now 9/22
T. Branstad 53% 54% B. Vander Plaats 46% 43%
C. Culver 37 34 C. Culver 40 39
Other 6 8 Other 7 9
Undec 4 4 Undec 7 9

Fav/Unfav
-                 Now     9/22
T. Branstad 57%/38% 64%/29%
B. Vander Plaats 43 /34 45 /30
C. Culver 42 /55 43 /50

Culver As Gov.
-            Now 9/22
Approve 41% 43%
Disapprove 57 53

Kansas
A KWCH-TV poll; conducted 2/12-14 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4/0% (release, 2/16).

Brownback As Sen.
-           Now 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/29
Approve 56% 51% 49% 57% 48% 54% 50% 54% 53%
Disapprove 37 40 40 30 42 36 34 36 37

Nevada
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 2/15-16 for the Retail Assn of NV; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Subsample of 185 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 7.2% (release, 2/22). Party ID breakdown: 42%D, 37%R, 18%I. Tested: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R), ex-U.S. District Judge/ex-NV AG/ex-NV Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R) and Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
B. Sandoval   38%
J. Gibbons 32
M. Montandon 9
Undec 19M

General Election Matchups
R. Reid       47%
J. Gibbons 36
Undec 14

M. Montandon  40%
R. Reid 40
Undec 19M

B. Sandoval   50%
R. Reid 34
Undec 15

Fav/Unfav
B. Sandoval   37%/10%
J. Gibbons 29 /58
R. Reid 23 /37
M. Montandon 10 / 5

Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/16-21; surveyed 1,662 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.4% (release, 2/23). Tested: Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
T. Strickland 44% 82% 11% 38% 38% 48% 40% 46% 43% 51% 51%
J. Kasich 39 9 73 38 45 33 40 36 38 32 31
Other 1 1 -- 1 1 -- 1 2 2 1 1
Not vote 2 -- -- 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
Undec 15 8 16 19 13 17 18 15 16 16 15

Strickland As Gov.
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
Approve 48% 73% 28% 44% 45% 50% 45% 48% 46% 57% 56%
Disapprove 40 20 59 43 47 35 43 42 42 29 30

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     11/9
T. Strickland 45%/36% 68%/15% 22%/59% 45%/37% 38%/37%
J. Kasich 26 /10 10 /17 42 / 4 29 /10 23 / 7

Strickland Handling Economy
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
Approve 35% 60% 16% 33% 35% 35% 33% 33% 33% 43% 39%
Disapprove 53 32 71 56 55 51 52 54 53 43 45

Strickland Handling OH Budget
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15 2/09
Approve 32% 51% 15% 30% 32% 32% 36% 32% 43% 44% 48%
Disapprove 51 31 68 54 53 49 47 53 40 36 30

Who Would Do A Better Job Rebuilding OH's Economy?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9
J. Kasich 41% 15% 67% 44% 48% 35% 41%
T. Strickland 35 64 11 31 33 37 33
No difference 2 2 1 2 2 1 --
Undec 22 19 20 23 17 27 27

Who Would Do A Better Job Handling OH's Budget?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9
J. Kasich 42% 18% 70% 43% 50% 35% 42%
T. Strickland 36 66 11 31 36 37 34
No difference 1 1 1 1 1 1 --
Undec 21 15 19 25 14 27 25

Who Do You Trust More To Do In Office What They Say They Will Do During The Campaign?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Kasich 36% 13% 63% 36% 41% 31%
T. Strickland 35 63 13 31 34 36
No difference 6 5 3 8 8 4
Undec 22 19 21 25 16 28

Who Do You Believe Most Shares Your Values?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
T. Strickland 40% 70% 14% 37% 37% 42%
J. Kasich 36 11 66 35 42 31
No difference 3 1 3 5 5 2
Undec 21 17 18 23 16 25

Do You Think Strickland Has Kept His Campaign Promises So Far?
-      All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15 2/09
Yes 34% 55% 17% 31% 36% 32% 32% 37% 34% 44% 46% 46%
No 45 28 59 48 46 43 43 40 40 32 30 27

Texas
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 2/19-21; surveyed 361 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 5.2% and +/- 4.9%, respectively (release, 2/23). Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Wharton Co. GOP chair/ex-nurse Debra Medina (R), physician Alma Ludivina Aguado (D), teacher Felix Alvarado (D), private investigator Bill Dear (D), Prairie View A & M assoc. prof. Clement Glenn (D), '06 GOP candidate/rancher/home-builder Star Locke (D), hair-care mogul Farouk Shami (D) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-             All Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth 2/7
B. White 59% 57% 61% 72% 52% 48% 38% 49%
F. Shami 12 17 9 6 14 19 25 19
F. Alvarado 5 4 5 -- -- 14 -- 5
A. Aguado 3 3 2 2 -- 5 -- 2
C. Glenn 2 3 1 1 3 -- 13 1
B. Dear 1 3 -- 1 3 -- -- 0
S. Locke 0 1 -- -- -- -- 13 0
Undec 18 12 22 24 17 28 14 13

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 2/7
R. Perry 40% 34% 47% 39%
K. Hutchison 31 34 28 28
D. Medina 20 24 16 24
Undec 9 8 9 10

Primary Runoff Election Matchups (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom
R. Perry 52% 48% 57%
K. Hutchison 35 37 33
Undec 12 15 9

-             All Men Wom
R. Perry 56% 52% 60%
D. Medina 36 40 32
Undec 8 8 9

Perry As Gov. (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 2/7
Approve 50% 44% 56% 50%
Disapprove 41 45 36 36

Hutchison As Sen. (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 2/7
Approve 47% 47% 48% 51%
Disapprove 43 44 42 28

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-             All     Men     Wom     2/7
G.W. Bush 79%/14% 76%/18% 82%/10% n/a
R. Paul 38 /30 43 /32 32 /28 n/a
D. Medina 36 /30 40 /29 32 /32 40%/ 9%

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