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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Subject: Polling Update: Governor 2009 - NJ; Senate 2010 - FL, NY, PA; Governor 2010 - NY, AL

Governor 2009

New Jersey

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/3-8; surveyed 1,338 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.7%. Subsample of 1,248 LVs; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 6/10). Note: matchup trend data is among RVs. Tested: Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and ex-U.S. atty Christopher Christie (R).

General Election Matchup (LVs)
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 5/18 4/20 3/9
C. Christie 50% 88% 19% 56% 55% 46% 58% 18% 45% 45% 46%
J. Corzine 40 7 73 32 38 43 34 72 38 38 37
Other 1 -- 1 1 1 1 1 -- 2 2 1
Not vote -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 2 2
Undec 9 4 8 12 7 10 7 10 13 14 15

Reelect Corzine?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 5/18 4/20 3/9 2/2 11/17
Yes 37% 9% 66% 28% 36% 38% 31% 64% 33% 33% 34% 33% 37%
No 55 84 25 64 59 51 61 26 54 55 53 54 51
Undec 8 7 9 8 5 11 8 10 13 12 13 13 12

Fav/Unfav
- All GOP Dem Ind 5/18 4/20
C. Christie 36%/16% 65%/ 5% 16%/22% 39%/14% 33%/11% 31%/11%
J. Corzine 35 /53 11 /81 60 /25 26 /61 37 /51 39 /50

Corzine As Gov.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 5/18 4/20 3/9
Approve 36% 15% 59% 27% 34% 37% 31% 59% 38% 37% 40%
Disapprove 56 80 30 63 60 51 62 30 53 54 50

The Way Things Are Going In NJ Today
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 5/18 4/20 3/9
Satisfied 32% 14% 51% 26% 27% 37% 28% 49% 35% 35% 34%
Dissatisfied 67 85 47 73 72 62 71 51 63 64 65

Since Corzine Became Gov., Have Things In NJ Gotten Better/
Gotten Worse/Stayed The Same?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 5/18 4/20 3/9
Better 8% 2% 14% 5% 6% 9% 5% 21% 8% 8% 8%
Worse 52 74 33 55 58 47 59 27 49 50 47
Stayed same 38 23 50 35 36 39 33 49 39 37 42

Would You Say That Corzine/Christie Has Strong
Leadership Qualities?
- Corzine Christie
- All GOP Dem Ind 8/05 All GOP Dem Ind
Yes 55% 36% 75% 48% 60% 48% 66% 37% 47%
No 39 58 19 45 18 17 9 23 15

Would You Say That Corzine/Christie Is Honest
And Trustworthy?
- Corzine Christie
- All GOP Dem Ind 8/05 All GOP Dem Ind
Yes 42% 21% 63% 36% 45% 42% 61% 31% 41%
No 44 66 26 47 25 20 13 26 17

Would You Say That Corzine/Christie Cares About
The Needs And Problems Of People Like You?
- Corzine Christie
- All GOP Dem Ind 8/05 All GOP Dem Ind
Yes 43% 18% 65% 39% 49% 44% 66% 27% 47%
No 49 73 27 53 35 23 12 34 20

Would You Say That Corzine/Christie Is Warm And
Friendly Or Cold And Businesslike?
- Corzine Christie
- All GOP Dem Ind All GOP Dem Ind
Warm 29% 13% 46% 22% 33% 46% 25% 35%
Cold 52 71 37 54 25 20 31 23








Senate 2010


Florida

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 6/2-7; surveyed 1,245 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.8%. Subsamples of 486 GOPers and 477 Dems; margins of error +/- 4.4% and +/- 4.5%, respectively (release, 6/10). Party ID Breakdown: 39%D, 27%R, 30%I. Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R), ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17), Rep. Ron Klein (D-22) and Rep. Corrine Brown (D-03).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom 4/13 2/16 1/19
K. Meek 18% 17% 18% 16% 16% 13%
C. Brown 12 12 12 na na na
R. Klein 8 10 7 8 14 9
Other 2 3 2 20 23 23
Not vote 2 1 3 2 4 na
Undec 57 57 57 53 43 54

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
C. Crist 54% 54% 53%
M. Rubio 23 28 18
Other 1 1 1
Not vote 1 1 1
Undec 21 15 26

Fav/Unfav
- All GOP Dem Ind 4/13 2/16
C. Crist 60%/28% 70%/21% 53%/33% 63%/27% 64%/22% 68%/21%
M. Rubio 14 /11 24 / 8 7 /13 16 /13 10 /11 12 /18
K. Meek 12 / 7 3 /12 22 / 3 9 / 9 11 / 6 12 / 6
R. Klein 11 / 5 6 / 7 15 / 5 10 / 4 9 / 4 12 / 5
C. Brown 10 /10 3 /19 18 / 3 6 / 9 na na

Crist As Gov.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom 4/13 2/16 1/19 11/16
Approve 62% 68% 59% 61% 64% 61% 66% 67% 65% 68%
Disapprove 28 21 30 31 30 26 23 22 24 18


New York

A Douglas E. Schoen LLC (D) poll; conducted 5/27-31 for Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-14); surveyed 600 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/9). Tested: Maloney, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-04).
Primary Election Matchups

K. Gillibrand 27%
C. Maloney 21
C. McCarthy 17
Other 11
Undec 24

C. Maloney 34%
K. Gillibrand 32
Undec 34

Reelect Gillibrand?
Deserves reelection 27%
Replace by somebody else 29
Undec 44

Fav/Unfav
K. Gillibrand 42%/24%
C. Maloney 39 /11

Gillibrand As Sen.
Approve 56%
Disapprove 17

Direction Of U.S.
Right dir. 77%
Wrong dir. 15

Do You Think Paterson's Decision To Appoint
Gillibrand To The Senate Was A Good Choice/Mistake?
Good choice 35%
Mistake 35

Better Than Ezra Cornell
A New York Times/Cornell Univ./NY1 poll; conducted 5/29-6/3; surveyed 1,057 adults; margin of error +/- 3.0% (release, 6/10).

Gillibrand As Sen.
Approve 31%
Disapprove 10

Schumer As Sen.
- Now 6/08 9/06 2/05 10/02
Approve 56% 54% 60% 63% 51%
Disapprove 16 23 18 16 15


Pennsylvania


A Citizens for Strength and Security poll; conducted 5/14-18 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D); surveyed 608 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Dienstfrey, Pollster.com, 6/9). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07).

Primary Election Matchup
- All Men Wom Wht Blk Union 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+
A. Specter 55% 54% 56% 55% 66% 52% 58% 54% 52% 59%
J. Sestak 34 37 30 34 27 37 27 36 38 31

Fav/Unfav
- All Philly Pitt Scranton
A. Specter 54%/26% 61%/22% 51%/32% 35%/32%

Specter As Sen.
- All Philly Pitt Scranton
Approve 65% 67% 59% 55%
Disapprove 27 27 35 31

Who Do You Believe Specter Will Vote With More Often?
Dems 70%
GOPers 16

A Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) poll; conducted 5/26-30; surveyed 700 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 6/9). Party ID Breakdown: 52%D, 40%R, 8%I.

Congress Is Currently Debating Passage Of A New Law Called EFCA, Known As "Card Check," Which Effectively Ends The Ability Of Employees To Hold Private Ballot Elections By Allowing Employees To More Easily Form A Union If Union Organizers Can Get A Majority Of Workers To Simply Sign Cards Saying They Want To Unionize. By Signing These Cards, Employees' Signatures Would Then Be Made Public.
Generally Speaking, Have You Recently Seen/Read/Heard Anything About This Issue?

- All GOP Dem Ind
Yes 55% 63% 48% 55%
No 44 36 51 45

Generally Speaking, Do You Favor/Oppose Passage Of This Legislation?

- All GOP Dem Ind
Favor 29% 18% 37% 26%
Oppose 55 68 44 58

Specter Recently Stated Publicly He Is Opposed To This Bill Because It Violates The Long-Standing Tradition Of The Private Ballot And Will Lead To More Job Losses In This Recession Due To The Additional Burden On Employers; Do You Agree/Disagree With His Position?

- All GOP Dem Ind
Agree 45% 53% 39% 49%
Disgree 34 29 36 39





Governor 2010


New York


A Douglas E. Schoen LLC (D) poll; conducted 5/27-31 for Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-14); surveyed 600 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/9). Tested: Tested: Gov. David Paterson (D) and AG Andrew Cuomo (D).

Primary Election Matchup
A. Cuomo 71%
D. Paterson 16
Other 3
Undec 9

Cuomo As AG
Approve 83%
Disapprove 12

Direction Of NY
Right dir. 28%
Wrong dir. 56

Do You Think Paterson's Decision To
Appoint Gillibrand To The Senate Was
A Good Choice/Mistake?
Good choice 35%
Mistake 35

That Very Same 71%

A New York Times/Cornell Univ./NY1 poll; conducted 5/29-6/3; surveyed 1,057 adults; margin of error +/- 3.0%. Subsample of 925 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2% (release, 6/10).

Elect Paterson In '10?
Deserves election 20%
Time for new person 71
Undec 10

Fav/Unfav (RVs)
- Now 06/08 09/06 02/05 06/00
A. Cuomo 56%/ 7% 38%/10% 26%/20% na na
R. Giuliani 44 /35 41 /35 na na 48%/33%
M. Bloomberg 43 /17 44 /14 na na na
E. Spitzer 26 /44 na 46 /10 39%/ 7% na
D. Paterson 21 /50 45 /10 na na na

Paterson As Gov.
- Now 6/08
Approve 30% 49%
Disapprove 54 16

Cuomo As AG
- Now 6/08
Approve 68% 58%
Disapprove 11 16

Direction Of NY
- Now 6/08
Right dir. 21% 28%
Wrong dir. 71 59

NY Legislature Job Approval
- Now 6/08 9/06 2/05
Approve 33% 29% 35% 32%
Disapprove 47 47 38 47

How Much Do You Think Paterson Cares About
The Needs And Problems Of People Like Yourself?
- Now 6/08
A lot 18% 26%
Some 38 42
Not much 23 13
Not at all 14 5

Do You Have Confidence In Paterson's
Ability To Deal With A Serious Crisis
Or Are You Uneasy About His Approach?
- Now 6/08
Confident 27% 46%
Uneasy 61 33

Should Gay Couples Be Allowed To Legally Marry,
Allowed to Form Civil Unions But Not Legally Marry,
Or Should There Be No Legal Recognition Of
A Gay Couple's Relationship?
- Now 6/08 9/06 2/05
Legally marry 46% 38% 36% 32%
Civil unions 28 28 30 32
No recognition 21 29 28 30

Alabama

A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 6/2-5; surveyed 667 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 6/10). Party ID Breakdown: 41%R, 38%D, 21%I. Tested: AL Commun. College Chancellor/ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R), '02 candidate/businessman Tim James (R), Treas. Kay Ivey (R), '06 candidate/ex-AL Chief Justice Roy Moore (R), Rep. Artur Davis (D-07) and Ag. Commis. Ron Sparks (D).

General Election Matchups

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
B. Byrne 39% 43% 36% 9% 69% 34% 52% 10%
A. Davis 35 36 34 67 8 29 21 68
Undec 26 22 30 23 23 37 28 22

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
B. Byrne 41% 43% 38% 15% 69% 30% 50% 20%
R. Sparks 27 31 23 47 9 25 22 38
Undec 33 26 39 37 22 46 28 43

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
A. Davis 37% 36% 38% 68% 12% 31% 24% 69%
T. James 35 40 31 8 62 28 45 11
Undec 28 24 31 23 25 41 30 20

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
T. James 32% 37% 27% 6% 58% 26% 41% 10%
R. Sparks 32 36 28 53 13 29 25 48
Undec 37 28 44 41 29 45 34 43

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
A. Davis 39% 38% 39% 71% 14% 28% 27% 68%
K. Ivey 31 34 28 5 54 30 40 8
Undec 31 27 34 23 32 42 33 24

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Sparks 33% 40% 27% 48% 19% 32% 28% 43%
K. Ivey 29 29 28 11 48 21 35 15
Undec 39 31 45 40 33 47 37 42

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
A. Davis 41% 43% 40% 70% 16% 39% 30% 69%
R. Moore 38 40 36 14 64 30 49 12
Undec 21 17 24 16 20 30 21 19

- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
R. Moore 38% 39% 37% 12% 65% 34% 49% 13%
R. Sparks 36 42 32 58 16 36 31 50
Undec 25 19 31 29 19 30 20 36

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