Polling Update: Governor 2009 - NJ, VA

New Jersey Governor 2009

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 6/3; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/4). Tested: Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and ex-U.S. atty Christopher Christie (R).

General Election Matchup
-               Now 5/12 3/10 1/13
C. Christie     51% 47%  49%  42%
J. Corzine      38  38   34   40
Other            5   6    7    5
Undec            6   9   10   13

Fav/Unfav
-                Now     5/12    3/10    1/13
C. Christie     54%/35% 51%/32% 52%/24% 53%/25%
J. Corzine      41 /58  44 /53  45 /54  50 /47

Corzine As Gov.
-               Now 5/12 3/10 1/13
Approve         42% 40%  33%  44%
Disapprove      58  57   66   54

Virginia Governor 2009

A Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 6/1-3; surveyed 500 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/4). Tested: ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe (D), state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) and ex-Del. Brian Moran (D).

Primary Election Matchup
-               All Men Wom Wht Blk
C. Deeds        29% 30% 27% 32% 25%
T. McAuliffe    26  29  23  25  28
B. Moran        23  20  26  23  22
Undec           22  19  24  19  23

How Likely Are You To Change Your Mind Before The Primary?
(Subgroups By Primary Vote)
-                           All McAuliffe  Moran Deeds
Very likely to change        7%     7%       8%    6%
Somewhat likely to change   43     42        51    36
Unlikely to change          47     47        36    56

Fav/Unfav
B. Obama        82%/12%
T. Kaine        74 /14
B. Clinton      71 /19
C. Deeds        38 / 9
T. McAuliffe    37 /21
B. Moran        33 / 5
B. McDonnell    27 /27

Of The Three Candidates, Who ___?
-                                           McA Moran Deeds
Has run the most negative campaign          26%  10%    7%
Will be the strongest opponent to McDonnell 26   22     25
Has leadership skills to improve VA economy 17   18     26
Cares about problems of people like you     15   18     25
Will fight to protect the environment       15   19     20
Has the most experience to be gov.          14   20     25
Will successfully address VA transportation 11   17     22

Does Knowing WaPo Endorsed Deeds 5/22 Make You
More/Less Likely To Vote For Him?
More likely     23%
Less likely     21
No difference   48

Do Allegations That McAuliffe Offered Ralph Nader Campaign Money
In '04 To Stay Off The WH Ballot In Certain Swing States
Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For McAuliffe?
More likely     10%
Less likely     33
No difference   50

A WDBJ-TV/WJLA-TV poll; conducted 5/31-6/2 by Survey USA (IVR); surveyed 1,701 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.4%. Subsample of 517 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.3 (release, 6/3). Party ID Breakdown: 37%D, 33%R, 28%I. Tested: McAuliffe, Deeds, Moran and ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-               All Men Wom Wht Blk 5/19 4/27
T. McAuliffe    35% 33% 35% 32% 38% 37%   38%
C. Deeds        29  30  28  32  26  26    22
B. Moran        26  29  23  26  25  22    22
Other/undec     11   8  13  11  11  14    18

General Election Matchups
-               All Men Wom GOP Dem Ind Wht Blk 5/19 4/27
B. McDonnell    44% 53% 37% 86%  9% 45% 51% 17%  46%  44%
C. Deeds        43  37  48   7  79  36  36  69   40   39
Undec           13  10  16   7  11  19  13  14   15   17

-               All Men Wom GOP Dem Ind Wht Blk 5/19 4/27
B. McDonnell    47% 56% 39% 88% 11% 50% 55% 20%  46%  46%
T. McAuliffe    40  34  47   6  78  30  33  66   40   39
Undec           12  10  14   6  10  19  12  14   13   15

-               All Men Wom GOP Dem Ind Wht Blk 5/19 4/27
B. McDonnell    48% 55% 41% 88% 12% 51% 54% 22% 47%   46%
B. Moran        37  32  41   5  74  25  31  57  37    34
Undec           15  13  17   7  14  24  15  21  16    19