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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Wednesday, 8/20

PRESIDENTIAL
ARIZONA
An AZ State Univ./KAET-TV poll; conducted 8/14-16; surveyed 402 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 8/19).
WH '08 General Election Matchups
J. McCain       40%
B. Obama 30
R. Nader 2
B. Barr *
Undec 28


IOWA
A Univ. of IA Hawkeye Poll; conducted 8/4-13; surveyed 709 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.7%. Subsample of 617 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 8/19). Party ID Breakdown (LVs): 37%D, 32%R, 31%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchup (LVs)
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
B. Obama 50% 90% 5% 42% 46% 52% 62% 51% 47% 45%
J. McCain 43 5 88 46 47 40 35 44 45 47
Undec 7 5 7 3 7 9 4 5 8 8


How Strongly Do You Support This Candidate? (LVs)
-              ObamaVoters McCainVoters
Strongly 64% 39%
Moderately 35 61


Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Who Do You Think Is Most Likely To Win The WH '08 Election?
-          All Dem GOP Ind ObamaVoters McCainVoters
B. Obama 54% 78% 27% 53% 77% 33%
J. McCain 29 11 54 25 10 50
Undec 17 11 19 23 14 18


NORTH CAROLINA
A Civitas Institute (R) poll; conducted 8/14-17 by Tel Opinion Research (R); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 8/19).

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 7/16 6/13
J. McCain 46% 20% 80% 49% 49% 44% 56% 3% 43% 45%
B. Obama 40 67 10 31 40 41 29 93 40 41
B. Barr 2 2 -- 4 2 1 2 1 2 2
Undec 12 11 10 16 9 14 13 3 15 12


PENNSYLVANIA
A Susquehanna Polling & Research poll; conducted 8/11-14; surveyed 700 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 8/19). Party ID Breakdown: 50%D, 40%R, 9%I.
WH '08 General Election Matchups
-          All GOP Dem Wht Blk Men Wom 5/6 3/10
B. Obama 46% 11% 73% 41% 98% 43% 48% 46% 41%
J. McCain 41 75 16 44 -- 45 38 39 45
None/other 3 na na na na na na 5 3
Undec 10 na na na na na na 9 10


B. Obama    44%
J. McCain 38
R. Nader 3
B. Barr 2


Fav/Unfav
B. Obama        46%/32%
J. McCain 44 /34


SENATE
WYOMING
Univ. of WY prof. Chris Rothfuss (D) won the Dem nod for the WY SEN "A" seat, defeating '90 candidate/'04 WY-AL candidate/'86/'06 GOV candidate/'00/'02 NE SEN candidate/felon/Army vet/ret. painter Al Hamburg (D). Rothfuss will face Sen. Mike Enzi (R) on 11/4.

Meanwhile, atty Nick Carter (D) won the Dem nod for the WY SEN "B" seat, defeating Casper councilor/ex-state Sen. Keith Goodenough (D). Carter will face Sen. John Barrasso (R) on 11/4. Results, with 100% reporting (WY Sec/State, 8/20):
WY SEN "A" Primary WY SEN "B" Primary
            Votes  %age                       Votes  %age
Rothfuss 14,209 62.37% Carter 12,310 50.63%
Hamburg 8,573 37.63 Goodenough 12,006 49.37
TOTAL: 22,782 TOTAL: 24,316


HOUSE
AK-AL
A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll; conducted 8/18; surveyed 300 GOP LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 8/19). Tested: Rep. Don Young (R), LG Sean Parnell (R) and state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-               Now 8/7
S. Parnell 44% 39%
D. Young 42 43
G. LeDoux 8 10
Undec 5 8


WA-02
-           votes   %age
Larsen 54,610 56%
Bart 35,814 36
Schaffer 4,797 5
Johnson 3,020 3


WA-03
-           votes   %age
Baird 55,606 52%
Delavar 20,380 19
Webb 17,227 16
Crist 14,240 13


WA-04
-           votes   %age
Hastings 54,712 61%
Fearing 31,286 35
Pross 4,227 5


WA-05
-           votes   %age
Rodgers 58,446 55%
Mays 21,553 20
Lampert 13,623 13
Erickson 7,833 7
Yearout 3,123 3
Beck 2,299 2


WA-06
-           votes   %age
Dicks 52,656 58%
Cloud 26,245 29
Richmond 8,465 9
Murrell 3,176 4


WA-07
-           votes   %age
McDermott 45,218 73%
Beren 9,295 15
Rivers 3,216 5
Nelson 1,714 3
Goldman 1,682 3
Schaefer 642 1


WA-08
-           votes   %age
Reichert 29,190 48%
Burner 27,014 44
Vaughn 2,484 4
Todd 975 2
Arnold 941 2
Orlinski 647 1


WY-AL
-           votes   %age
Lummis 33,082 46%
Gordon 26,789 37
Winney 8,479 12
Holland 3,159 4

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