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Thursday, May 6, 2010

Senate 2010

Connecticut
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/4; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/6). Tested: AG Richard Blumenthal (D), ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), businessman Peter Schiff (R) and ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 4/7 3/2 2/1 1/6
R. Blumenthal 52% 55% 60% 56% 58%
L. McMahon 39 35 31 36 34
Other 6 3 3 3 3
Undec 4 6 7 4 5

-              Now 4/7 3/2 1/6
R. Blumenthal 54% 58% 57% 60%
P. Schiff 29 32 27 24
Other 6 4 6 6
Undec 11 6 10 10

-              Now 4/7 3/2 2/1 1/6
R. Blumenthal 55% 52% 58% 54% 56%
R. Simmons 32 38 32 35 33
Other 5 4 3 4 4
Undec 8 6 7 7 7

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     4/7     3/2     2/1     12/7    9/10
R. Blumenthal 72%/23% 69%/28% 72%/26% 70%/27% n/a n/a
R. Simmons 48 /32 48 /40 52 /35 60 /26 48%/30% 53%/32%
L. McMahon 55 /31 45 /45 46 /42 51 /34 45 /35 n/a
P. Schiff 35 /33 41 /34 37 /34 n/a 35 /31 27 /35

Kentucky
A WKYT-TV/WAVE-TV/Lexington Herald-Leader poll; conducted 5/2-4 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversamples of 500 Dem primary LVs and 500 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.4% for each (release, 5/5). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 47%D, 42%R, 11%I. Tested: Physician James Buckmaster (D), AG Jack Conway (D), '04 nominee/LG Dan Mongiardo (D), author/ex-Border Patrol agent Darlene Price (D), cattle farmer/ex-Louisville NAACP pres. Maurice Sweeney (D), Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), WW II vet Gurley Martin (R), ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), Jon Scribner (R) and ex-Supt. of Public Instr. John Stephenson (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-               All Men Wom
D. Mongiardo 39% 43% 35%
J. Conway 32 29 35
D. Price 6 5 7
J. Buckmaster 4 5 3
M. Sweeney 2 2 2
Undec 17 16 18

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-               All Men Wom
R. Paul 44% 45% 42%
T. Grayson 32 33 31
J. Stephenson 3 4 2
G. Martin 3 4 2
J. Scribner 1 1 1
Undec 17 13 22

Which Is The Single Most Important Issue In Determining Your Vote?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Economy 41% 43% 38% 42% 38% 44%
Gov't spending 21 16 26 22 25 17
Health care 14 20 8 12 8 20
Nat'l security 8 5 13 7 8 20
Immigration 5 4 5 6 6 4
Moral values 4 3 5 4 4 4
Energy policy 3 5 1 3 2 4
Other 2 2 1 2 3 1

A Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) poll; conducted 5/3-4 for Mongiardo; surveyed 504 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/5). Tested: Mongiardo, Conway, Price and Sweeney.

Primary Election Matchup
-               Now 2/4
D. Mongiardo 46% 43%
J. Conway 34 25
D. Price 2 2
M. Sweeney 2 1
Undec 16 29

A Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 5/2-4 for Conway; surveyed 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/5). Tested: Conway, Buckmaster, Mongiardo, Price and Sweeney.

Primary Election Matchup
-               Now 10/7
J. Conway 37% 37%
D. Mongiardo 31 40
Others 5 n/a
Undec 28 23

Conway As AG
-               Now 10/7
Excellent/good 48% 43%
Fair/poor 30 32

Mongiardo As LG
-               Now 10/7
Excellent/good 40% 39%
Fair/poor 43 43

Washington
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 5/4; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 5/5). Tested: Sen. Patty Murray (D), businessman Paul Akers (R), '98 WA-03 nominee/state Sen./ex-state GOP chair Don Benton (R), farmer/ex-Redskins tight end Clint Didier (R) and '04/'08 GOV nominee Dino Rossi (R).

General Election Matchups
-          Now 3/9                       Now 4/6 3/9 2/11
P. Murray 49% 45% P. Murray 52% 48% 48% 50%
P. Akers 35 37 D. Benton 38 40 37 38
Other 6 5 Other 3 4 3 3
Undec 10 13 Undec 7 8 12 9

-          Now 4/6 3/9 2/11              Now 4/6 3/9 2/11
P. Murray 51% 47% 49% 49% P. Murray 48% 48% 46% 46%
C. Didier 36 37 30 34 D. Rossi 46 46 49 48
Other 4 5 6 4 Other 2 3 3 1
Undec 8 11 15 13 Undec 3 4 2 5

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     4/6     3/9     2/11
P. Murray 52%/44% 53%/43% 53%/41% 51%/45%
D. Rossi 52 /44 52 /44 51 /45 54 /41
D. Benton 32 /30 34 /25 26 /29 33 /28
P. Akers 31 /29 29 /27 n/a n/a
C. Didier 28 /31 26 /29 27 /26 28 /28

An Elway Poll; conducted 4/29-5/2; surveyed 405 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 5/5). Party ID breakdown: 41%D, 27%R, 31%. Tested: Murray, Akers, Benton, Didier and Rossi.

General Election Matchups
P. Murray  50%                P. Murray  51%
P. Akers 26 D. Benton 27
Undec 24 Undec 22

P. Murray  50%                P. Murray  51%
C. Didier 24 D. Rossi 34
Undec 26 Undec 15

Murray As Sen.
-               Now 6/28 5/03 4/02 6/99 4/98 7/95 1/94 7/93
Excellent/good 48% 53% 44% 47% 50% 40% 44% 44% 40%
Only fair/poor 46 34 47 42 44 50 45 38 37

Is ___ A Reason To Vote For Murray, For Someone Else, Or Not A Factor One Way Or Another?
-                          ForMurray ForSomeoneElse NoFactor
Ability 55% 31% 15%
Character/integrity 55 25 20
Dem leader 51 31 19
Political philosophy 47 34 19
Stands on specific issues 47 34 18
People she represents 49 32 19

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