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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Senate 2010

California
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/12; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/14). Tested: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), '00 nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 3/11 2/11 1/14
B. Boxer 43% 43% 45% 46%
T. Campbell 41 41 41 42
Other 6 6 4 3
Undec 10 10 10 8

-            Now 3/11 2/11 1/14 11/17 9/23
B. Boxer 42% 46% 47% 46% 46% 46%
C. DeVore 39 40 42 40 36 37
Other 8 4 6 4 5 7
Undec 12 9 5 10 13 10

-            Now 3/11 2/11 1/14 11/17 9/23 7/22 3/09    
B. Boxer 42% 46% 46% 46% 46% 49% 45% 47%
C. Fiorina 38 40 42 43 37 39 41 38
Other 7 4 7 3 5 4 7 10
Undec 13 10 5 8 12 8 7 5

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     3/11    2/11    1/14    11/17   9/24
B. Boxer 51%/44% 48%/45% 51%/46% 51%/46% 51%/42% n/a
T. Campbell 41 /31 44 /29 44 /33 49 /23 40 /20 42%/27%
C. DeVore 39 /26 32 /28 32 /36 33 /29 31 /25 n/a
C. Fiorina 36 /34 44 /31 37 /40 38 /34 40 /29 n/a

New York
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/8; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/13).

General Election Matchup
K. Gillibrand  40%
Generic GOPer 39
Other 7
Undec 14

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     3/1     1/18    9/22    7/14
K. Gillibrand 46%/34% 50%/37% 46%/41% 39%/42% 43%/34%

Pennsylvania
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/12; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1%. Subsample of 435 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (releases, 4/13-14). Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and ex-Rep./ex-Club for Growth Pres. Pat Toomey (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           Now 3/15 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11 6/16
A. Specter 44% 48% 51% 53% 48% 46% 47% 51%
J. Sestak 42 37 36 32 35 42 34 32
Other 4 5 4 4 3 2 3 4
Undec 10 9 9 11 14 10 16 13

General Election Matchups
-           Now 3/15 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11 6/16                
P. Toomey 50% 49% 47% 49% 46% 45% 48% 39%
A. Specter 40 40 38 40 42 40 36 50
Other 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 4
Undec 6 7 10 8 8 9 12 7

-           Now 3/15 2/8 1/18 12/8 10/13 8/11 6/16
P. Toomey 47% 42% 43% 43% 44% 37% 43% 35%
J. Sestak 36 37 35 35 38 38 35 41
Other 5 7 7 6 6 6 5 7
Undec 12 15 15 16 13 19 18 18

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     3/15    2/8     1/18    12/8    10/13
P. Toomey 54%/29% 53%/33% 57%/28% 57%/27% 51%/29% 52%/27%
A. Specter 42 /54 42 /54 41 /54 43 /54 44 /50 46 /52
J. Sestak 38 /39 40 /38 33 /42 37 /37 36 /38 37 /34

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-           Now     3/15    2/8     1/18    12/8    10/13
A. Specter 65%/32% 65%/31% 69%/29% 67%/31% 66%/25% 68%/30%
J. Sestak 57 /26 47 /22 55 /23 54 /26 48 /22 45 /27

Obama As POTUS (Dems)
Approve     72%
Disapprove 27

Rendell As Gov. (Dems)
Approve     60%
Disapprove 39

A Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) poll; conducted 4/7-12; surveyed 700 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.7%. Oversample of 400 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 4/14). Party reg. breakdown of main sample: 50%D, 41%R. 9%I. Tested: Specter, Sestak and Toomey.

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-               RVs
- Now 10/12
A. Specter 42% 44%
J. Sestak 28 16
None/other 3 18
Undec 26 22

General Election Matchup
-                   RVs   RVs
- Now 3/6 10/12 5/30
P. Toomey 48% 42% 41% 37%
A. Specter 38 36 42 46
None/other 3 4 4 4
Undec 10 18 12 13

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