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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Senate 2010

Connecticut
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/7; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/12). Tested: AG Richard Blumenthal (D), ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), businessman Peter Schiff (R) and ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 3/2 2/1 1/6
R. Blumenthal 55% 60% 56% 58%
L. McMahon 35 31 36 34
Other 3 3 3 3
Undec 6 7 4 5

-              Now 3/2 1/6
R. Blumenthal 58% 57% 60%
P. Schiff 32 27 24
Other 4 6 6
Undec 6 10 10

-              Now 3/2 2/1 1/6
R. Blumenthal 52% 58% 54% 56%
R. Simmons 38 32 35 33
Other 4 3 4 4
Undec 6 7 7 7

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     3/2     2/1     12/7    9/10
R. Blumenthal 69%/28% 72%/26% 70%/27% n/a n/a
R. Simmons 48 /40 52 /35 60 /26 48%/30% 53%/32%
L. McMahon 45 /45 46 /42 51 /34 45 /35 n/a
P. Schiff 41 /34 37 /34 n/a 35 /31 27 /35

Kentucky
A Louisville Courier-Journal/WHAS-TV poll; conducted 4/9-11 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 1,894 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.3%. Subsamples of 659 Dem primary LVs and 446 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 3.8% and 4.6%, respectively (release, 4/12). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 53%D, 39%R, 9%I. Tested: Physician James Buckmaster (D), AG Jack Conway (D), '04 nominee/LG Dan Mongiardo (D), author/ex-Border Patrol agent Darlene Price (D), cattle farmer/ex-Louisville NAACP pres. Maurice Sweeney (D), Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), WW II vet Gurley Martin (R), ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), Jon Scribner (R) and ex-Supt. of Public Instr. John Stephenson (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-              All Men Wom 3/3 11/2 8/17
D. Mongiardo 35% 36% 33% 45% 39% 39%
J. Conway 32 29 35 27 28 31
D. Price 5 5 5 4 2 3
J. Buckmaster 4 4 4 3 n/a n/a
M. Sweeney 2 3 1 2 1 1
Others n/a n/a n/a n/a 15 13
Undec 21 21 22 19 16 14

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom 3/3 11/2 8/17
R. Paul 45% 45% 46% 42% 35% 26%
T. Grayson 30 33 26 27 32 37
J. Stephenson 3 3 2 2 n/a n/a
G. Martin 2 1 3 3 n/a n/a
J. Scribner 1 1 1 1 n/a n/a
Others n/a n/a n/a 5 16 20
Undec 19 16 22 19 18 17

General Election Matchup
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 3/3
Generic GOPer 44% 18% 80% 37% 48% 40% 43%
Generic Dem 41 67 6 33 39 43 42
Undec 15 14 13 30 13 17 16

Louisiana
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 4/7; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 4/12). Tested: Sen. David Vitter (R) and Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-03).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 3/10 2/10 1/14 10/5
D. Vitter 52% 57% 57% 53% 46%
C. Melancon 36 34 33 35 36
Other 4 3 3 4 5
Undec 8 6 7 8 13

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     3/10    2/10    1/14    10/5
D. Vitter 60%/37% 63%/32% 67%/26% 61%/33% 56%/34%
C. Melancon 46 /41 43 /44 39 /45 39 /46 43 /39

New York
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 4/6-11; surveyed 1,381 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.6%. Subsample of 411 GOPers; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 4/13). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), ex-Gov. George Pataki (R) and '98 Comp. nominee/ex-Nassau Co. legislator/ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom
G. Pataki 64% 72% 57%
B. Blakeman 15 12 19
Other 1 1 1
Not vote 1 1 1
Undec 19 15 23

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/1
K. Gillibrand 47% 72% 15% 43% 47% 47% 44%
B. Blakeman 25 5 62 23 30 21 27
Other 1 1 -- 2 2 1 1
Not vote 3 3 3 3 5 2 2
Undec 24 19 20 28 17 30 26

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
G. Pataki 45% 22% 81% 49% 50% 40%
K. Gillibrand 40 65 9 32 40 40
Other 1 1 -- 2 1 1
Not vote 2 1 3 1 3 1
Undec 13 11 7 16 7 18

Gillibrand As Sen.
-          All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/1 12/13 10/19 8/13 6/21
Approve 47% 64% 30% 40% 49% 45% 42% 40% 32% 33% 37%
Disapprove 25 9 44 31 30 20 28 21 20 19 15

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/1
G. Pataki 52%/33% 42%/43% 75%/14% 52%/32% n/a
K. Gillibrand 37 /23 51 /11 23 /43 32 /24 33%/22%
B. Blakeman 7 / 6 4 /10 16 / 3 5 / 4 11 / 4

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 4/6-11; surveyed 1,381 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.6% (release, 4/13).

Do You Feel Schumer Deserves To Be Re-Elected?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/1
Yes/deserves 53% 75% 29% 48% 52% 55% 54%
No/does not 32 13 54 39 39 25 33

Schumer As Sen.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/1 12/13 10/19 8/13 6/21
Approve 61% 78% 41% 59% 59% 62% 58% 62% 62% 58% 63%
Disapprove 26 10 44 31 31 21 30 27 24 27 23

North Carolina
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 4/8-11; surveyed 401 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 4.9% for each (release, 4/13). Tested: Tested: Atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), Susan Harris (D), atty/Obama fundraiser Ken Lewis (D), '02 candidate/Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D), atty Marcus Williams (D), librarian Ann Worthy (D), Sen. Richard Burr (R), Asheboro City councilor Eddie Burks (R), businessman Brad Jones (R) and disbarred atty/ex-state Rep. Larry Linney (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-              All Men Wom Wht Blk Oth 3/15 2/15
E. Marshall 23% 21% 24% 25% 21% 5% 20% 29%
C. Cunningham 17 22 14 13 26 32 16 12
K. Lewis 9 7 11 9 10 9 11 5
S. Harris 4 5 3 5 1 5 4 n/a
A. Worthy 1 2 1 1 1 -- 0 n/a
M. Williams 0 1 0 0 -- 5 2 2
Undec 45 42 47 47 40 45 47 51

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom 3/15 2/15
R. Burr 67% 70% 64% 58% 55%
B. Jones 7 4 11 5 10
E. Burks 3 4 1 4 3
L. Linney 1 1 -- 1 n/a
Undec 23 21 24 33 31

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-              All     Men     Wom     3/15    2/15
E. Marshall 32%/ 7% 29%/11% 34%/ 5% 27%/10% 29%/ 9%
K. Lewis 11 / 9 15 /11 8 / 8 9 /12 9 / 9
C. Cunningham 8 / 6 11 / 7 7 / 6 8 / 9 9 / 7

Burr As Sen. (GOPers)
-              All Men Wom
Approve 63% 69% 55%
Disapprove 17 18 15

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