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Friday, March 19, 2010

Senate 2010

Florida
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 3/15-17 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversamples of 400 Dems and 400 GOPers; margins of error +/- 4.9% for each (release, 3/18). Party ID breakdown of main sample: 38%D, 37%R, 25%I. Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R), ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17). (Note: Crist was tested in both primaries. In general-election matchups, he was tested in a three-way matchup as an indie, and as a Dem in a two-way matchup with Rubio.)

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-         All Men Wom Wht Blk His
K. Meek 24% 21% 26% 18% 45% 27%
C. Crist 21 25 18 23 12 24
Undec 55 54 56 59 43 49

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-         All Men Wom 11/18
M. Rubio 58% 67% 46% 37%
C. Crist 30 23 40 47
Undec 12 10 14 16

General Election Matchups
-         All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 11/18 1/09
C. Crist 45% 14% 79% 42% 50% 40% 53% 4% 38% 50% 49%
K. Meek 36 67 5 35 32 40 28 79 44 33 28
Undec 19 19 16 23 18 20 19 17 18 17 23

-         All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 11/18 1/09
M. Rubio 41% 8% 80% 33% 47% 35% 48% 3% 35% 30% 22%
K. Meek 40 75 5 38 35 45 32 82 49 38 31
Undec 19 17 15 29 18 20 20 15 16 32 47

-         All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 11/18
M. Rubio 32% 10% 58% 24% 38% 26% 39% 3% 18% 27%
C. Crist 29 21 33 36 30 28 33 4 29 32
K. Meek 27 56 4 20 24 30 18 74 38 31
Undec 12 13 5 20 8 16 10 19 15 10

-         All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His 11/18
M. Rubio 40% 15% 66% 39% 46% 34% 49% 4% 19% 34%
C. Crist 38 53 29 30 36 40 33 53 56 45
Undec 22 32 5 31 18 26 18 43 25 21

Fav/Unfav
-         All     Dem     GOP     Ind     11/18   1/09
C. Crist 44%/45% 41%/50% 48%/40% 43%/45% 59%/32% 65%/23%
M. Rubio 29 /36 13 /52 48 /18 26 /38 21 /22 11 /17
K. Meek 25 /18 44 / 9 6 /28 25 /17 23 / 9 18 / 7

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/16; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/18). Tested: Sen. Russ Feingold (D), ex-Gov./ex-HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson (R), developer Terrence Wall (R) and businessman Dave Westlake (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 2/17 1/26
T. Thompson 47% 48% 47%
R. Feingold 45 43 43
Other 3 6 6
Undec 4 4 4

-            Now 2/17                      Now 2/17
R. Feingold 49% 47% R. Feingold 51% 47%
T. Wall 40 39 D. Westlake 35 37
Other 3 6 Other 5 6
Undec 9 7 Undec 10 10

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     2/17    1/26
T. Thompson 59%/39% 63%/34% 56%/39%
R. Feingold 51 /47 50 /48 47 /48
T. Wall 39 /28 34 /35 n/a
D. Westlake 34 /26 33 /31 n/a

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