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Monday, March 1, 2010

Senate 2010

Delaware
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/25). Tested: Rep. Mike Castle (R), '06 candidate/'08 nominee Christine O'Donnell (R) and New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D).

General Election Matchups
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 10/14
M. Castle 53% 24% 87% 61% 58% 48% 51%
C. Coons 35 61 6 27 32 38 39
Undec 12 15 7 12 10 14 10

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
C. Coons 47% 75% 12% 43% 43% 51%
C. O'Donnell 31 8 65 29 34 28
Undec 22 17 23 28 23 21

Fav/Unfav
-             All     Dem     GOP     Ind     10/14
M. Castle 65%/32% 43%/53% 87%/10% 79%/19% 64%/30%
C. Coons 52 /25 74 /10 23 /47 50 /22 n/a
C. O'Donnell 33 /39 16 /57 59 /13 31 /40 n/a

Indiana
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/11). Party ID breakdown: 41%R, 36%D, 23%I. Tested: Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-08), Rep. Baron Hill (D-09) and architect Jim Schellinger (D).

General Election Matchups
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Coats 37% 7% 69% 28% 43% 31%
B. Ellsworth 36 68 9 35 31 41
Undec 27 25 22 37 26 28

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Coats 37% 6% 70% 27% 44% 30%
B. Hill 37 70 9 37 32 42
Undec 26 24 21 36 24 28

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Coats 39% 6% 74% 28% 47% 31%
J. Schellinger 34 68 6 31 30 38
Undec 27 26 20 41 23 31

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Hostettler 40% 8% 72% 32% 46% 34%
B. Ellsworth 34 66 8 32 30 38
Undec 26 26 20 36 24 28

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Hostettler 42% 7% 77% 35% 47% 37%
B. Hill 36 69 9 34 32 40
Undec 22 24 14 31 21 23

-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Hostettler 44% 8% 80% 37% 48% 40%
J. Schellinger 33 66 6 30 30 36
Undec 23 26 14 33 22 24

Fav/Unfav
-               All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/10
B. Hill 45%/31% 64%/13% 30%/46% 42%/32% n/a
J. Hostettler 43 /31 13 /61 70 / 9 41 /25 40%/33%
B. Ellsworth 41 /24 60 /10 25 /38 39 /23 n/a
D. Coats 40 /36 8 /67 70 /11 37 /24 38 /34
J. Schellinger 39 /32 58 /15 23 /47 37 /31 n/a

Maryland
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/26).

General Election Matchup
B. Mikulski    54%
Generic GOPer 36
Other 2
Undec 8

Fav/Unfav
B. Mikulski    63%/31%

Nevada
A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research; surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversample of 300 GOP primary regular voters; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 2/28). Party ID breakdown: 43%D, 37%R, 20%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), Wall St. banker John Chachas (R), ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), Bill Parson (R) and '04 state Senate nominee/'06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             Now 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
S. Lowden 47% 26% 25% 23% 14%
D. Tarkanian 29 28 24 21 33
S. Angle 8 13 13 9 5
J. Chachas 1 -- 1 -- --
B. Parson -- -- 1 1 n/a
M. Amodei n/a 1 1 -- n/a
C. Kozak n/a -- -- -- 1
R. Titus n/a -- 1 1 n/a
M. Wiley n/a -- 1 1 n/a
Undec 15 32 33 44 47

General Election Matchups
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7
S. Angle 44% 10% 83% 44% 52% 36% 45%
H. Reid 42 74 7 38 33 51 40
Undec 14 16 10 18 15 13 15

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
S. Lowden 52% 15% 91% 54% 57% 47% 50% 51% 49% 45%
H. Reid 39 75 4 31 32 46 40 41 39 40
Undec 9 10 5 15 11 7 10 8 12 15

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
D. Tarkanian 51% 17% 91% 52% 56% 46% 49% 48% 48% 49%
H. Reid 40 73 3 37 35 45 41 42 43 38
Undec 9 10 6 11 9 9 10 10 11 13

-                     All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
H. Reid 36% 68% 2% 26% 29% 43%
Generic GOPer 32 10 64 22 40 24
Generic Tea Party 18 12 22 22 19 17
Undec 14 10 12 30 12 16

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     1/7     12/2    10/8    8/18    6/19
S. Lowden 36%/17% 32%/17% 33%/13% 31%/15% n/a n/a
H. Reid 33 /51 33 /52 38 /49 38 /50 37%/50% 34%/46%
D. Tarkanian 30 /17 33 /16 32 /12 30 /11 n/a n/a
S. Angle 19 / 9 21 /11 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Did Obama's Visit To NV Last Week Make You More/Less Likely To Vote For Reid?
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
More likely 7% 12% -- 7% 6% 8%
Less likely 17 3 33 19 21 13
No effect 75 83 67 74 72 78

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