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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Governor 2010

Alabama
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 3/27-29; surveyed 407 Dem primary voters and 457 GOP primary voters; margins of error +/- 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively (release, 3/30). Tested: Rep. Artur Davis (D-07), inventor Sam Franklin Thomas (D), Ag. Commis. Ron Sparks (D), state Rep. Robert Bentley (R), AL Commun. College Chancellor/ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R), Treas. Kay Ivey (R), '02 candidate/businessman Tim James (R), ex-AL Econ. Dev. dir./ex-Birmingham City Councilor Bill Johnson (R), '06 candidate/ex-AL Chief Justice Roy Moore (R), financial adviser James Potts (R) and businessman Charles Taylor (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-                   All Men Wom Wht Blk Oth
A. Davis 38% 37% 39% 29% 48% 20%
R. Sparks 28 35 22 33 23 33
S. Franklin Thomas 9 7 10 9 9 13
Undec 25 20 29 29 21 33

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-           All Men Wom
B. Byrne 27% 31% 24%
R. Moore 23 24 22
R. Bentley 10 11 9
K. Ivey 10 8 12
T. James 9 10 9
B. Johnson 1 1 1
J. Potts 0 -- 0
C. Taylor -- -- --
Undec 20 16 24

Fav/Unfav (Dems)
-           All     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Oth
A. Davis 28%/34% 36%/35% 23%/33% 31%/26% 28%/38% 7%/67%
R. Sparks 27 /17 40 /15 16 /18 30 /17 25 /15 13 /33

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-           All     Men     Wom
R. Moore 48%/28% 50%/30% 46%/26%
B. Byrne 31 / 9 31 /10 31 / 8
T. James 20 /21 27 /22 14 /20
K. Ivey 20 /26 19 /29 21 /24

Obama As POTUS (Dems)
-           All Men Wom Wht Blk Oth
Approve 84% 85% 83% 68% 98% 87%
Disapprove 13 14 12 26 1 7

Michigan
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/24; surveyed 662 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 3/30). Tested: Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R), AG Mike Cox (R), Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-02) and venture capitalist Rick Snyder (R).

Primary Election Matchup
P. Hoekstra  27%
R. Snyder 18
M. Cox 13
M. Bouchard 6
Other 5
Undec 32

Fav/Unfav
P. Hoekstra  54%/13%
M. Cox 45 /23
R. Synder 40 /14
M. Bouchard 37 /19

Obama As POTUS
Approve      10%
Disapprove 88

Granholm As Gov.
Approve      10%
Disapprove 89

New York
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 3/29; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 3/31). Tested: AG Andrew Cuomo (D), '00 SEN nominee/JPMorgan exec. VP/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R), Suffolk Co. Exec. Steve Levy (R) and atty/developer Carl Paladino (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 3/1 1/21 11/17 9/22
A. Cuomo 52% 55% 54% 57% 65%
R. Lazio 29 30 35 29 26
Other 6 5 5 6 5
Undec 13 10 7 9 5

A. Cuomo     50%
S. Levy 26
Other 7
Undec 17

-            Now 3/1
A. Cuomo 51% 56%
C. Paladino 28 27
Other 6 6
Undec 15 11

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     3/1     1/21    11/17   9/22    7/14
A. Cuomo 60%/31% 64%/29% 62%/29% 56%/34% 68%/25% 64%/32%
R. Lazio 46 /32 40 /34 45 /34 36 /44 33 /49 n/a
S. Levy 33 /34 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
C. Paladino 31 /31 30 /33 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 3/23-29; surveyed 1,526 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.5% (release, 3/31). Tested: Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4
T. Strickland 43% 80% 9% 34% 44% 42% 44% 40% 46% 43% 51%
J. Kasich 38 9 75 38 41 35 39 40 36 38 32
Other 1 -- 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1
Not vote 1 -- -- 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
Undec 17 10 15 26 14 21 15 18 15 16 16

Strickland As Gov.
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4
Approve 49% 71% 26% 46% 46% 50% 48% 45% 48% 46% 57%
Disapprove 40 19 64 42 45 36 40 43 42 42 29

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     2/21    11/9
T. Strickland 46%/35% 72%/12% 24%/57% 41%/39% 45%/36% 38%/37%
J. Kasich 24 /10 10 /17 43 / 4 25 / 9 26 /10 23 / 7

Strickland Handling Economy
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4
Approve 35% 58% 16% 30% 36% 34% 35% 33% 33% 33% 43%
Disapprove 52 30 72 56 53 50 53 52 54 53 43

Strickland Handling OH Budget
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/09
Approve 37% 55% 19% 35% 41% 34% 32% 36% 32% 43% 44%
Disapprove 47 30 66 49 46 47 51 47 53 40 36

Do You Think Strickland Has Kept His Campaign Promises So Far?
-    All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/09 2/09
Yes 36% 51% 22% 32% 37% 34% 34% 32% 37% 34% 44% 46% 46%
No 41 29 55 41 42 40 45 43 40 40 32 30 27

Who Would Do A Better Job Rebuilding OH's Economy?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21 11/9
T. Strickland 38% 67% 12% 31% 41% 36% 35% 33%
J. Kasich 38 14 67 39 42 34 41 41
No difference 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 --
Undec 22 16 20 27 15 28 22 27

Who Would Do A Better Job Handling OH's Budget?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21 11/9
J. Kasich 39% 14% 69% 42% 44% 35% 42% 42%
T. Strickland 38 68 11 31 38 37 36 34
No difference 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 --
Undec 21 16 18 25 16 26 21 25

Who Do You Trust More To Do In Office What They Say They Will Do During The Campaign?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21
T. Strickland 40% 70% 16% 33% 41% 40% 35%
J. Kasich 35 12 62 35 39 31 36
No difference 5 3 3 8 5 5 6
Undec 20 15 18 24 16 24 22

Who Do You Believe Most Shares Your Values?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 2/21
T. Strickland 42% 72% 14% 37% 45% 40% 40%
J. Kasich 34 9 64 35 38 30 36
No difference 2 1 2 3 1 3 3
Undec 22 18 20 24 15 27 21

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